Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 08/19/2013
Posted: Mon Aug 19, 2013 4:45 amDaily Technical Analysis from ACFX 08/19/2013
Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 19th August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
EURUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after Fridays down day.
EURUSD has thus far been unable to breach the 8th August high. A breach of this swing point would effectively change the trend to long. However the price action continues to trade above both the 8 period moving averages and the downward sloping trend line which could offer a base of support for a further upswing.
We are monitoring the price action to see if the 8 period moving average will now act as support that will eventually lead EURUSD higher and into the direction of the last isolated high of the 8th August.
In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias is negative.
2. The price action is trading around the area of trend line resistance.
3. The RSI is confirming the move.
4. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame.
Alternative counter trend bullish factors:
1. The averages have crossed positively.
2. The price action has broken above the 8 period moving averages.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities
Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages approaches back to this average could offer support and a buying area.
Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 19th August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
GBPUSD is this morning trading unchanged from the open after Fridays down day.
After Thursdays strong up day the subsequent trading sessions have been quiet with very narrow ranges.
We are monitoring pullbacks to the 8 period moving averages acting as a potential buying area.
In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias has turned positive.
2. The price action is retracing to the positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity.
3. The averages have crossed positively.
4. The RSI is confirming the move.
5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame.
6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level.
Alternative counter trend bearish factors:
1. The moving averages are somewhat extended.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the initial area of interest being the 8 period moving averages.
Scenario 2
Alternatively the price action extended from the averages could offer short term shorting opportunities.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 19th August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after Fridays up day
After trading down off the 34 period moving averages USDCHF has bounced off the 8 period moving averages. A failure to trade beneath the 8 period averages could potentially indicate that a move back to the 34 period moving average is possible.
We are monitoring the price action at these levels to see if the negativity continues. However there is a potential support hurdles to be overcome at the 0.9200 and the upward sloping trend line. A breach of the 8th August low will need to happen so as to reinforce the negative bias.
In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias remains negative.
2. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias.
3. The RSI is in gear with the move.
4. The averages are negatively layered.
Alternative counter trend bullish factors:
1. USDCHF has bounced off the 0.9200 level.
2. USDCHF has bounced of trend line support.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullback could possibly offer shorting opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively support may potentially be found at the 8 period moving averages. This support could precede an extended move to the 34 period moving averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 19th August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
USDJPY is this morning trading higher from the open after Fridays up day.
After trading down USDJPY has found support at the 8 period moving averages. A failure to break this average could propel USDJPY back up to the Fibonacci resistance area.
We are monitoring the potential for further negative rotation and return to the down trend.
In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias remains negative.
2. The moving averages have crossed negatively.
3. The price action has broken below the significant 100 level.
4. The RSI is confirming the move.
5. The price action has managed to break below the upward sloping trend line.
6. Fibonacci resistance is offering down side pressure.
Alternative counter trend bullish factors:
1. The weekly time remains with a positive bias.
2. The price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities
Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages there is the possibility of a corrective up move back to Fibonacci resistance and the 34 period moving averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 19th August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Gold is this morning trading lower from the open after Fridays up day.
Gold continues to trade above the previous swing high and effectively changes the trend to positive by printing a bullish higher low and higher high sequence. However the price action is now becoming extended from the averages.
In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias is positive.
2. The price action has printed a higher low.
3. The moving averages are layered positively.
4. The price action is trading above the averages.
5. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level.
6. The RSI is in gear with the move.
Alternative counter trend bearish factors:
1. The weekly time frame continues to point down.
2. The price action is trading within the Fibonacci resistance zone.
3. The price action is extended from the averages.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively the price action is extended from the averages which could offer shorting opportunities.
Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 19th August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Oil is this morning trading lower from the open after Fridays up day.
Following Oils 8th August down spike that breached the prior swing low the price action has since bounced off the 34 and is now trading above the 8 period moving averages. Although the down spike has effectively turned the swing bias to negative the subsequent bullish reversal could indicate that break down was nothing more than a fake out. A breach of the prior swing high or swing low will confirm the bullish or bearish bias.
In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains negative.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias is negative.
Alternative counter trend bullish factors:
1. The prior down spike has been reversed.
2. The price action is trading above the averages.
3. The averages are layered positively.
4. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern.
5. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle.
6. The weekly RSI diverging positively.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively following the bounce off the 8th August down spike we are monitoring the possibility of a move to the 2nd August high.
Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 19th August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
EURUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after Fridays down day.
EURUSD has thus far been unable to breach the 8th August high. A breach of this swing point would effectively change the trend to long. However the price action continues to trade above both the 8 period moving averages and the downward sloping trend line which could offer a base of support for a further upswing.
We are monitoring the price action to see if the 8 period moving average will now act as support that will eventually lead EURUSD higher and into the direction of the last isolated high of the 8th August.
In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias is negative.
2. The price action is trading around the area of trend line resistance.
3. The RSI is confirming the move.
4. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame.
Alternative counter trend bullish factors:
1. The averages have crossed positively.
2. The price action has broken above the 8 period moving averages.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities
Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages approaches back to this average could offer support and a buying area.
Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 19th August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
GBPUSD is this morning trading unchanged from the open after Fridays down day.
After Thursdays strong up day the subsequent trading sessions have been quiet with very narrow ranges.
We are monitoring pullbacks to the 8 period moving averages acting as a potential buying area.
In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias has turned positive.
2. The price action is retracing to the positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity.
3. The averages have crossed positively.
4. The RSI is confirming the move.
5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame.
6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level.
Alternative counter trend bearish factors:
1. The moving averages are somewhat extended.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the initial area of interest being the 8 period moving averages.
Scenario 2
Alternatively the price action extended from the averages could offer short term shorting opportunities.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 19th August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after Fridays up day
After trading down off the 34 period moving averages USDCHF has bounced off the 8 period moving averages. A failure to trade beneath the 8 period averages could potentially indicate that a move back to the 34 period moving average is possible.
We are monitoring the price action at these levels to see if the negativity continues. However there is a potential support hurdles to be overcome at the 0.9200 and the upward sloping trend line. A breach of the 8th August low will need to happen so as to reinforce the negative bias.
In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias remains negative.
2. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias.
3. The RSI is in gear with the move.
4. The averages are negatively layered.
Alternative counter trend bullish factors:
1. USDCHF has bounced off the 0.9200 level.
2. USDCHF has bounced of trend line support.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullback could possibly offer shorting opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively support may potentially be found at the 8 period moving averages. This support could precede an extended move to the 34 period moving averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 19th August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
USDJPY is this morning trading higher from the open after Fridays up day.
After trading down USDJPY has found support at the 8 period moving averages. A failure to break this average could propel USDJPY back up to the Fibonacci resistance area.
We are monitoring the potential for further negative rotation and return to the down trend.
In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias remains negative.
2. The moving averages have crossed negatively.
3. The price action has broken below the significant 100 level.
4. The RSI is confirming the move.
5. The price action has managed to break below the upward sloping trend line.
6. Fibonacci resistance is offering down side pressure.
Alternative counter trend bullish factors:
1. The weekly time remains with a positive bias.
2. The price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities
Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages there is the possibility of a corrective up move back to Fibonacci resistance and the 34 period moving averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 19th August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Gold is this morning trading lower from the open after Fridays up day.
Gold continues to trade above the previous swing high and effectively changes the trend to positive by printing a bullish higher low and higher high sequence. However the price action is now becoming extended from the averages.
In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias is positive.
2. The price action has printed a higher low.
3. The moving averages are layered positively.
4. The price action is trading above the averages.
5. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level.
6. The RSI is in gear with the move.
Alternative counter trend bearish factors:
1. The weekly time frame continues to point down.
2. The price action is trading within the Fibonacci resistance zone.
3. The price action is extended from the averages.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively the price action is extended from the averages which could offer shorting opportunities.
Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 19th August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Oil is this morning trading lower from the open after Fridays up day.
Following Oils 8th August down spike that breached the prior swing low the price action has since bounced off the 34 and is now trading above the 8 period moving averages. Although the down spike has effectively turned the swing bias to negative the subsequent bullish reversal could indicate that break down was nothing more than a fake out. A breach of the prior swing high or swing low will confirm the bullish or bearish bias.
In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains negative.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias is negative.
Alternative counter trend bullish factors:
1. The prior down spike has been reversed.
2. The price action is trading above the averages.
3. The averages are layered positively.
4. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern.
5. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle.
6. The weekly RSI diverging positively.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively following the bounce off the 8th August down spike we are monitoring the possibility of a move to the 2nd August high.