MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.01.2016
As the volatile start to the year continued, equities took further beatings as worries over China persisted.
Asian stocks reached new lows not seen since 2011 the China 50 index remained under pressure.
The recent reversal on Chinese equity markets has spread to other stock markets in the United States and Europe.
Furthermore, the negativity that surrounds the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets has seeped through to the forex market where the offshore Chinese Renminbi lost ground against the US Dollar.
At one point the USDCNH rate peaked at 6.7631 last Thursday but has since slipped back to 6.5880 following concerted action by the Peoples Bank of China to intervene and stabilize the value of the Yuan.
Increasingly, many commentators have now questioned the policy of the local regulators with the Peoples Bank of China coming increasingly under the spotlight.
The Peoples Bank of China move to support the Yuan did surprise the markets but this action is understandable. The PBOC is attempting to engineer a foreign exchange policy where the markets rather than it decides the appropriate exchange rate.
Furthermore, with the entry of the Yuan into the IMF reserve currency basket the PBOC is attempting to keep in line with its commitments which limits Yuan depreciation.
However, the PBOC has to manage the current high levels of volatility and these are only set to increase when in the early hours of tomorrow morning the Customs General Administration of China (CGAC) will announce the latest Trade Balance report.
Analysts and investors will be looking at the level of exports and imports as it is expected that both these components of the Trade Balance report will contract.
Such news would signal that the Chinese economy is shrinkage and in turn, will further fray the nerves of investors and officials at the PBOC.
EURUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0940
Target 2: 1.0789
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097
Daily control level: 1.0800
GBPUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.4613
Target 2: 1.4461
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.4600
USDJPY
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 118.06
Target 2: 117.16
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.86
Daily control level: 118.80
USDCHF
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0088
Target 2: 0.9923
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097
Daily control level: 1.0050
USDCAD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3130
Target 2: 1.4140
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109
Daily control level: 1.4050
AUDUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7028
Target 2: 0.6927
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0078
Daily control level: 0.7080
GOLD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1106.00
Target 2: 1084.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.27
Daily control level: 1091.00
OIL
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 32.90
Target 2: 30.81
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54
Daily control level: 34.25
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