MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 18.12.2015
EURUSD
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD, Thursday continued to sell off following a well-received Federal Reserve announcement that it was increasing interest rates.
This morning, the EURUSD has bounced off the 1.0800 which coincided with a prior weekly pivot level.
Although EURUSD did appreciate for most of the morning the rally could not be sustained and the price action threatens once again to test the 1.0800 during the New York session.
If the 1.0800 level is breached, the initial downside target is 1.0700 which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
Alternatively, a bounce off the 1.0800 could see EURUSD test the 1.0900 resistance level and the 1.0950 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
This morning’s line of control was calculated to be at the 1.1015 level. However due to the developing price action, a breach of the 1.0870 which is the most recent swing high would be sufficient to change the trend from down to up. Such a move would also signal a break of the current three-day downward sloping channel.
GBPUSD
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD, Thursday continued to sell off following a well-received Federal Reserve announcement that it was increasing interest rates.
This morning, the GBPUSD has traded with a slight upward bias but has been unable to make a sustained break away from its opening range.
If GBPUSD does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1.5000 level and then the 1.5025 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
A breach of the 1.5015 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.
However, as the price action is contained within a large, downward sloping channel, there is a strong possibility that any rally will be short-lived?
Alternatively, a failure to sustain high prints could see GBPUSD test the 1.4900, 1.4850, 1.4800 and the 1.4775 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.
USDJPY
The intraday technical outlook
USDJPY, Thursday has experienced a volatile trade as the market digests conflicting news from the Bank of Japan.
USDJPY initially attempted to break up from its opening range. However, this move could not be sustained as the rally fell short of the 123.55 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
The price action has subsequently traded lower as USDJPY broke down from its opening range and within a few hours breached both the 121.55 and 121.35 levels.
As the latter level corresponds to today’s line of control the trend has change from up to down.
However, after such an aggressive move lower the possibility of USDJPY experiencing a corrective bounce as traders square up positions and take profits before the commencement of the weekend should not be discounted.
USDCHF
The intraday technical outlook
USDCHF, Thursday had initially traded lower in a corrective fashion.
However, subsequently, USDCHF has bounced off support and traded slightly higher.
As the price action continues to be encompassed within a large up channel there is potential that USDCHF trades higher during the afternoon session.
The initial upside target is the 1.0075 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
Alternatively, a breach of the channel bottom and the 0.9915 line of control could see USDCHF attempt to test the 0.9845 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
USDCAD
The intraday technical outlook
USDCAD, Thursday has traded sideways and within the opening range.
However, over the past two hours, USDCAD has appreciated as the market awaits Canadian CPI and Wholesale Sales data.
A continuation of the move higher could see USDCAD test the 1.4050 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
Alternatively, a breakdown from the opening range could see USDCAD test the 1.3825 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
AUDUSD
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD, Thursday has traded higher with the price action having bounced off the 0.7100 prior monthly pivot level.
A continuation of the move higher could see AUDUSD test the 0.7220 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
Alternatively, a breakdown from the opening range could see AUDUSD test the 0.7100 and then the 0.7030 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
GOLD
The intraday technical outlook
Gold, Thursday has traded higher with the price action having found support at the 1047.00 level,
A continuation of the move higher could see Gold test the 1068.00 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.
Alternatively, a breakdown from the opening range could see Gold test the 1035.00 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
OIL
The intraday technical outlook
Oil, Thursday initially trade higher. However, during the past two hours, sellers have come back into the market.
This has led to Oil breaking down from its opening range.
A continuation of the move lower could see Oil test the 35.50 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.
Alternatively, a failure to sustain the move lower could see Oil test the 37.15 level which corresponds to today’s line of control.
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