MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.11.2015
The quarterly Australian Private Expenditure data has opened this trading day with quite a disappointing results, as it showed that the spending by the private businesses decreased to -9.2 % against -2.8% expected.
This data completed this year’s set of the releases with all of them in the negative side and reached the worst results since February 2000, pulling the recently recovering AUDUSD pair to the downside.
“In an acknowledgment that the below-par economic growth of the past three years will persist, the Treasury’s top forecaster, Nigel Ray, said next month’s budget update would assume long-term growth of 2.75 per cent, down from about 3 percent” – the Australian Financial Review reports.
“A sharp slowdown in population growth since export prices peaked in 2011 means the economy won’t expand as fast as previously assumed. Lower growth could mean a future of fewer jobs and poorer investment returns. It would hit taxes, making it harder to pay for promised raises in defence, education, old age and welfare services” – Jacob Greber, observes in his recent article.
For now the probability of a further interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in the near future is increasing, as fewer people will mean fewer employees and, therefore, an additional drop in productivity.
The European trading session today looks quite deserted regarding the economic releases, whereas the American markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Thus, the low trading volume will likely govern the market though the risk of volatility in case of any significant event enters the media headlines.
Despite some retracement yesterday, it seems the dollar index is continuing to persist on the way up, bouncing off the 99.75 support this morning and likely heading to retest the recent high of 100.20.
Gold, the traders’ favourite commodity after the oil is remaining to trade at five-year low, trading a descending triangle pattern, which could suggest a move lower might be ahead.
Oil price, after encountering some volatility, has managed to keep the positions it gained on Monday on Saudi Arabia’s comments. The crude was trading above US$ 43.10 support and daily pivot point this morning.
EURUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.0700
Target 2: 1.0540
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084
Daily control level: 1.0690
GBPUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5200
Target 2: 1.5040
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081
Daily control level: 1.5050
USDJPY
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.20
Target 2: 122.15
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.56
Daily control level: 123.00
USDCHF
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.0280
Target 2: 1.0135
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073
Daily control level: 1.0140
USDCAD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3360
Target 2: 1.3215
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073
Daily control level: 1.3340
AUDUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7315
Target 2: 0.7185
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0064
Daily control level: 0.7155
GOLD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1082.00
Target 2: 1058.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.30
Daily control level: 1081.00
OIL
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 44.80
Target 2: 41.80
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.49
Daily control level: 42.15
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