ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 12.12.2014
EURUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday EURUSD traded lower at it moved into the area of the last isolated low at the 1.2360 area.
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control way up at the 1.2360 level.
Current upside resistance can be found at 1.2400 and 1.2450.
Alternatively downside support comes in at 1.2360 and 1.2330.
The macro technical view
The move higher has turned the 4 hour trend positive following the breach of the 1.2450 resistance level
The daily trend continues to be negative today’s as the price action trades under the 1.2600 daily resistance levels.
The move under the 1.2750 has turned the weekly trend to down with support coming in around 1.2250.
The monthly frame is interesting.
Although the current swing count is negative the monthly price action is trading within a converging triangle with support coming in off the 1.2200 to 1.2250 level which corresponds to trend line support
GBPUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday GBPUSD traded down to the area of its prior intraday swing low at the 1.5650 level.
However it’s stay in these regions was brief as it traded higher throughout the rest of the London and New sessions.
Intraday the pound is trading in an uptrend with the line of control at the 1.5650 level.
The intraday upside resistance comes in at 1.5725 and 1.5750.
Alternative support is at 1.5645 and 1.5625 levels.
The macro technical view
The breach of the 1.5725 technically changed the 4 hour trend to up.
However there is some concern that the candle could not paint a 4 hour close above the 1.5725 level.
The daily chart is trading in a technical down trend with resistance coming in at 1.5825.
The weekly chart saw GBPUSD breach the 1.6390 level and a multi month down trend line.
This move has technically changed the weekly trend to positive.
The weekly and monthly time frames continue to point upwards therefore the 1.5200/50 area becomes a significant line in the sand.
The 1.5200/50 area is a zone of support that is offered by a multi month trend line.
A breach of this area could set the pound up for a multi month down trend.
However a bounce off major support opens up the possibility for a move to the 1.7050 level.
USDJPY
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday the area of the 119.55 being intraday resistance held back the rise of USDJPY.
However with Sunday’s election looming large on the horizon downward traders will be anticipating potential further Yen weakening following a possible Abe election victory.
Intraday USDJPY is trading in a 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 119.55 level.
Downside support is at 118.25 and 117.90.
Alternatively resistance levels are at 118.95 and 119.30.
The macro technical view
Longer term position traders will once again be eyeing a potential retest of the 122.00 level on Monday if Abe as is expected wins Sunday’s election.
The 4 hour time frame has been in an uptrend since the breach of the 118.95 resistance level.
The daily time has been bullish for some time and the correction that it recently experienced is due to recent news events but also to a large part of traders simply realizing profits.
Much the same for the weekly chart however we do have weekly support at the 115.70 level.
The weekly chart gives us the interesting possibility of a lower close for the first time since October 5,
The 117.85 level will be a key level to watch today being last weeks low.
The monthly chart has a price target of 124.15.
After such weakness in the Yen and with the prospect of Fed tightening and the Bank of Japan implementing massive stimulus the 124.15 level is looking a probable prospect.
USDCHF
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday USDCHF had a good run up after it failed to test the 0.9600 level
The current intraday trend for USDCHF on the 1 hour chart is down with the line of control at 0.9725.
The downside support is at 0.9650 and 0.9610 levels.
Alternative current upside resistance is at the 0.9690 and 0.9725 levels.
The macro technical view
The highlight of the price action on the 4 hour chart with the market rejecting repeated attempts to sustain a move under the 0.9650 level.
The daily chart does look like a staircase with price action having experience what looks like a typical downside controlled correction.
The upside target of 0.9840 being weekly resistance is still in play.
The weekly time frame will also turn positive if we get a move above the 0.9840 level.
A similar scenario can be seen on the monthly chart with a breach of the 0.9970 level required before we can confirm that USDCHF is trading in a monthly uptrend
AUDUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday AUDUSD once again reverted to form as it broke beneath the 0.8280 and 0.8265 support levels.
However the price action was held at the 0.8220 support level being the area of the prior isolated low.
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 0.8375.
The current downside support is at the 0.8265 and 0.8220.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8280 and 0.8315.
The macro technical view
All chart time frames from 4 hour, daily and weekly time frames are all pointing down.
The monthly chart and the formation of a large head and shoulders scenario that potentially targets the 0.8065 level is still in play.
In terms of bullish arguments the monthly chart is actually trading in an uptrend with the price action now trading in an area of Fibonacci support.
Confirmation that the potential for this long scenario was to play out does however require so basing movement to happen on lower time frames.
This is something I have yet to notice.
GOLD
The intraday technical outlook
Following Gold’s breach of the 1215.00 resistance level the price action has been trending up.
However we have now had the painting of a lower high swing pivot at the 1232.00 level.
Gold needs to trade above this level for confirmation that the uptrend is in good health,
On an intraday basis the 1 hour trend is uptrend with the line of control at 1215.00 levels.
Current upside resistance comes in at 1225.60 and 1232.00.
Alternatively support comes in at 1221.00.00 and 1215.00.
The macro technical view
Gold continues to trade in a 4 hour uptrend as the price action attempts to paint a higher low swing.
The bullishness has also been transferred to the daily chart with a higher high being painted.
Last week XAUSD closed higher and actually put in a higher low.
This price could possibly be the precursor of a double bottom forming on the weekly chart.
On the monthly chart Gold continues to trade in an uptrend with the down move entering into an area of Fibonacci support.
OIL
The intraday technical outlook
Oil continues to slide with the price action yesterday penetrating the 60.45 support level.
The decline was somewhat held at the 59.25 level.
Oil continues to trade in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 61.45 level.
Current support comes in at 59.25 and 56.50.
Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 64.45 and 61.65.
The macro technical view
With all time frames from 4 hour and above point down the next the 59.25 level becomes today’s battleground.
MORE ON ACFXblog.com