ACFX London opening technical report – 03.12.2014
EURUSD
The macro technical view
Yesterday EURUSD resumed is downward slide as it took out intraday support levels of 1.2445, 1.2420 and 1.2400.
We will soon have our answer to the possible double bottom scenario with a breach of the 1.2360 level confirming that the down trend in higher time frames is intact.
As mentioned in prior posts we do have monthly support coming in at around the 1.2200 level. This comes off the back of a monthly trend line.
This level now becomes an obvious target for the shorts and a magnate for EURUSD to drop down to.
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s breach of the 1.2420 level changed the 1 hour trend back to down with the line of control now at the 1.2505 level.
The downside support comes in at 1.2360 and 1.2240.
Alternatively upside targets for today are at the 1.2400and 1.2420 levels.
GBPUSD
The macro technical view
Yesterday GBPUSD traded lower as it broke down through 1.5715 and 1.5675 supports levels.
Cable is now currently trading around the 1.5645 support level.
The possible double bottom scenario is still on play on both the 4 hour and daily charts.
However as mentioned yesterday I still want to see the formation of a higher low and even better a higher high on the 4 hour chart.
This would give me more confidence that a bottom has formed.
Looking for a bottoming formation when the momentum being so bearish might be foolhardy however the markets do and will change their mood.
However in prior posts I wrote that the weekly chart does however not reinforce the negative picture that is found on the smaller time frames with the price action having corrected to an area of possible Fibonacci support following its initial bullish impulse move higher.
This view continues to be confirmed by the monthly chart. The monthly chart has actually put in a higher high.
As mentioned in my prior posts we have also had no less than 5 months of lower closes. Therefore the question now becomes is this drop over done?
With this in mind if GBPUSD can hold above the 1.5600 level we may just have the first signs that this longer term bullish play is about to unfold.
The upside target for GBPUSD being 1.7050. This was top of the bottom of the 2005 monthly down swing and top of the last isolated monthly high of July of this year.
A failure however to stay above the 1.5600 level could however see GBPUSD test the 1.5420 support level.
The intraday technical outlook
Intraday the pound is trading in a down trend with the line of control at the 1.5765 level.
The intraday downside targets are at the 1.5625 and 1.5585 levels.
Alternative a upside resistance comes in at 1.5675 and 1.5715.
USDJPY
The macro technical view
Yesterday USDJPY broke above the 119.00 level. With this level broken the 120.00 level comes into focus.
All times frames from 4 hour and above are very bullish with the only real concern being the amount of green candles in succession that are shown on the weekly chart.
On the premise that what goes up must come down so at some point we could get a good correction.
The monthly chart the level long term position traders will be hoping to hit is the 124.15 level which coincides to the last isolated monthly swing high.
The intraday technical outlook
Intraday USDJPY is trading in a 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 117.85 level.
Upside areas of interest being the 119.50 and 119.75 levels.
Alternatively down side levels are 119.00 and 118.60.
USDCHF
The macro technical view
USDCHF is this morning trading testing the 0.9730 high. With USDJPY having broken above its 119.00 level there is a possibility that USDCHF follows suit.
The 4 hour chart has now committed to the long side by painting a higher low and higher high swing and it looks like the daily time frame will soon joint this club.
A similar scenario can be seen on the monthly chart with a breach of the 0.9970 level required before we can confirm that USDCHF is trading in a monthly uptrend.
The intraday technical outlook
The current intraday trend for USDCHF on the 1 hour chart is up with the line of control at 0.9615.
The current upside targets are 0.9745 and 0.9800.
Alternative downside targets are 0.9700 and 0.9665.
AUDUSD
The macro technical view
As mentioned in my introduction the latest GDP numbers have added to the gloom surrounding the Australian Dollar.
AUDUSD is currently trading at the 0.8400 level having this morning breached the 0.8415 support level.
Today’s move now means that the 4 hour, daily and weekly time frames are all pointing down.
The monthly chart and the formation of a large head and shoulders scenario that potentially targets the 0.8065 level is still in play.
In terms of bullish arguments the monthly chart is actually trading in an uptrend with the price action now trading in an area of Fibonacci support.
Confirmation that the potential for this long scenario was to play out does however require so basing movement to happen on lower time frames. This is something I have yet to notice.
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD is trading in a intraday down trend with the line of control at the 0.8470.
This morning’s AUDUSD is testing the 0.8400 support level.
The current downside targets are 0.8400 and 0.8350.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8415 and 0.8470.
GOLD
The macro technical view
Yesterday Gold traded down to the 1192.50 support level.
At these levels buyers have coming into the market to push XAUUSD higher.
The 4 hour chart is now trading in an uptrend and is attempting to put in a higher low swing.
The bullishness has also been transferred to the daily chart with a higher high on the very of being painted.
I am now monitoring this week’s close to see if Gold can put in place a weekly double bottom.
On the monthly chart Gold continues to trade in an uptrend with the down move entering into an area of Fibonacci support.
The intraday technical outlook
On an intraday basis the 1 hour is up with the line of control at 1192.50 level.
Current upside resistance comes in at 1208.00 and 1221.15
Alternatively downside targets are 1192.50 and 1189.30.
OIL
The macro technical view
Oil continues to trade under the 69.60 resistance level.
However the pullback from the test of this level was not as aggressive as expected with the price action now finding support at 67.00.
All higher frames from 4 hours and up are bearish.
As mentioned in prior posts it is now a case of trying to identify key levels where the price action could bounce off.
Focus now falls on the 63.65 level which was the last support level.
If the price action can form a higher low above this level preferably on the 4 hour chart there is the possibility that we get a much stronger correction which takes Oil up to the 73.60 level
However a failure to hold above the 63.65 levels could see Oil challenge the 58.75 support level.
The intraday technical outlook
Oil continues to trade in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 69.60 level.
A break above the 69.60 would technically change the 1 hour trend to up.
Current support is at the 67.00 level.
Alternatively successful test of the 69.60 level opens up the possibility of a move up to the 73.60 level.
MORE ON ACFXblog.com