Detailed technical outlook
EURUSD
The macro technical view
Over the past two trading sessions EURUSD has had somewhat of a mini rally with the price action yesterday closing well above the highs of Monday’s candle.
There is a definite feel that a double forming is forming on the daily chart. However as we all know there is no such thing as a definite in trading. Therefore caution should always be exercised as price patterns have a nasty habit of failing.
If however this double top formation does pan out then realistically aim for the highs of the last swing pivot at 1.2600. If this move does gather steam then a price target of 1.2885 being the swing high of October 15 comes into play.
A failure of EURUSD to trade higher could see a retest of the 1.2360 level and a serious attempt at the 1.2050 level which coincides with a prior monthly swing low.
The intraday technical outlook
Dropping down the intraday chart the 1 hour time frame is currently trading in an uptrend. The upside target for today being 1.2500 and then 1.2570.
Alternatively a move lower could see EURUSD initial test the 1.2445 intraday support level with a breach of the 1.2400 level changing the trend from up to down. Additional downside target can be found at 1.2360 level however the possibility of this level being hit today may be limited as such a move will be outside the parameters of the typical trading range.
GBPUSD
The macro technical view
GBPUSD over the past few weeks or so continues to trade above the key 1.5600 support level with the price action consolidating within a 150 pip range.
The price action in fact is beginning to form a bottoming triangle formation. This is especially clear on the 4 hour time frame.
It remains to be seen however if this pattern is part of a bullish reversal pattern or nothing more than a precursor of an ABC bearish continuation pattern.
As mentioned in yesterdays post a move higher could see GBPUSD target the 1.5800 resistance level.
On the other side of the coin a continuation of the down trend would have the bears aiming their sights once again on the 1.5590 level.
The intraday technical outlook
The 1 hour chart of GBPUSD continues to be bullish with the price action as I write testing the 1.5715 resistance level. The next upside targets at 1.5740 and then 1.5785.
Alternatively a successful test of the 1.5690 support level would technical change the trend from up to down.
The downside targets if GBPUSD was to breach support being 1.5640 and 1.5360.
USDJPY
The macro technical view
USDJPY continues to take breather beneath the 119.00 level with this week’s price action consolidating within the range of last week’s candle.
In terms of the macro view we really need to see a weekly close above or beneath last week’s candle as an indication of the possible medium term direction.
The intraday technical outlook
The 1 hour view has USDJPY trading in an intraday uptrend. However there are signs of negative momentum coming into play following the formation of a lower high.
Furthermore as I write USDJPY is attempting to test the 117.65 level being the area of the prior higher low. Although this level has been breached I would like first to see a 1 hour close beneath this level for confirmation that the trend has turned from up to down.
The current upside targets are 118.30 and 118.60.
Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back down to the 117.35 and 117.05 support levels.
USDCHF
The macro technical view
The daily chart has now thrown up a question mark about the strength of the current trend in USDCHF with the failure of the price action to trade above the 0.9745 level putting focuses on the bull’s willingness to stay the course.
Could it be that the past couple of week’s price action is now signaling a near term top?
The intraday technical outlook
On an intraday basis the breach the close under the 0.9660 level being the prior swing low level has technically changed the trend to down.
A continuation of the move with a successful test of the 0.9630 level could put into play a move to the 0.9605 level.
Alternatively a rejection of lower prices could potentially see USDCHF test the 0.9660 level with a further move above the 0.9700 changing the 1 hour trend to up.
AUDUSD
The macro technical view
Yesterday AUDUSD resumed its downward course as the price action penetrated the 0.8540 level.
Switching over to a monthly chart the move down would appear that a large head and shoulders scenario is potentially playing out with the 0.8065 level now is targeted by the bears.
The intraday technical outlook
Dropping down to the 1 hour time frame a continuation of the move lower could see AUDUSD test the 0.8530 and then the 0.8510 level,
Alternatively and as posted yesterday a change of intraday trend from down to up will happen if AUDUSD can successfully test the 0.8725 level.
As this level is way off from the current price action I am monitoring the potential for possible double bottom and higher low forming.
This should mean that AUDUSD will trade above the 0.8600 resistance level and then target R2 at 0.8650.
XAUUSD
The macro technical view
As posted yesterday Gold is trading in daily down trend however the recent price action has seen the price action experience somewhat of a strong corrective rally.
This has prompted some market analysts to predict that the down trend in Gold maybe coming to an end.
Technically although the recent up move in XAUUSD has been impressive the daily trend continues to point stubbornly down and this retracement has done nothing more than push back Gold to an area of Fibonacci resistance and a zone for potentially shorting this metal.
However that the recent price action has been bullish and to ignore this strong pullback would probably be a mistake. Especially if one was to consider the opportunities that present themselves on the intraday time frame.
The intraday technical outlook
On a 1 hour basis XAUUSD is technically trading in an uptrend on a 1 hour swing basis however during yesterday’s trading we did have an unsuccessful test of the 1192.50 level.
A close beneath this level would technically change the 1 hour trend to down.
The current upside targets for XAUUSD being 1203.00 and then 1208.00.
Alternatively a successful test of the 1192.50 level could propel Gold down to 1186.50 and 1181.00.
OIL
The macro technical view
With this week’s OPEC meeting happening tomorrow the question of will this club decide to cut or not to cut production is dominating the current price action.
On the daily chart we did get an upside correction however the price action over the past two days has paired most of the gains that had been made.
No agreement on quotas could see Oil test the 73.20 level being the most recent isolated low.
The intraday technical outlook
On an intraday basis the 1 hour chart continues to show signs of weakness with the piece action currently testing the 73.85 support level.
Further downside momentum could see Oil target the 73.20 level and then the 71.50 level.
Alternatively an agreement on production quotas could see Oil test the 76.55 level being the current 1 hour swing high and then go on to test the 77.90 level.