MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.11.2015
The start of a busy week of financial data began on Sunday with news out from China.
The Chinese Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) published data that indicated that the manufacturing sector is still declining.
According to the latest release, the Manufacturing PMI for October stood at 49.8. The market had expected a slight increase to the 50.0 level.
As PMI readings that are higher than 50.0 indicate an expansion in the manufacturing sector, the release of yesterday’s number which was below the 50.0 mark does reinforce the current negative view analysts have of the Chinese economy.
However, that yesterday’s release was in line with data for September does give those looking for signs of stabilization that a floor has been put under what has been a savage contraction.
This view has gained some ground this morning with the independent Caixin Manufacturing PMI that is released by Markit indicated that there was a slight uptick.
The actual number for this morning Caixin Manufacturing PMI being 48.3 against a forecast of 47.7 and prior 47.2.
The mixed data with respect to the Chinese Manufacturing will most probably force the Chinese authorities to take further measures that will help create a bottom and stabilizes this country’s economy.
In other news, PMI surveys dominate today’s releases. Japan this morning releases its monthly Final Manufacturing PMI. The latest release was reported as 52.4 beat the consensus forecast of 52.1 but was slightly below Septembers reading of 52.5.
Across to Europe, Spanish Manufacturing PMI disappointed with the actual of 51.3 missing the 51.9 forecast and 51.7 prior release.
However, there was better news from Switzerland which saw an expansion in the manufacturing sector with the latest report reported as 50.7. The October number was a strong beat on the 50.2 actual and 49.5 September reading.
As I write, PMI data will be released shortly for Italy, Germany, France and the Euro-Area and later today, we have PMI data from the UK and the USA.
EURUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1134
Target 2: 1.0932
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101
Daily control level: 1.1095
GBPUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5543
Target 2: 1.5347
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.5240
USDJPY
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 121.25
Target 2: 119.53
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.86
Daily control level: 120.00
USDCHF
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9931
Target 2: 0.9767
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082
Daily control level: 0.9815
USDCAD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3185
Target 2: 1.2960
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115
Daily control level: 1.3190
AUDUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7190
Target 2: 0.7036
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0078
Daily control level: 0.7079
GOLD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1156.00
Target 2: 1127.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 14.70
Daily control level: 1150.00
OIL
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 48.00
Target 2: 45.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.41
Daily control level: 45.85
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