MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.10.2015
The annual Columbus Day holiday is once again upon us which means it’s a Bank holiday in the United States. With citizens of Japan and Canada also enjoying bank holidays, trading is typically erratic and low in liquidity.
Away from the celebrations, three of Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s colleagues on the committee will be giving speeches. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Mr. Dennis Lockhart will be addressing the Association for University Business and Economic Research’s Fall Conference, in Orlando on the subject that is of greatest concern to policymakers and the markets. This being his view on the United States economic outlook.
Later in the day, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Mr. Charles Evans will address the 49th World Steel Association and this is followed by the Federal Reserve Governor, Mrs. Lael Brainard, will be speaking at the National Association for Business Economics, in Washington on the subject of the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.
With so many of her colleagues speaking about the economy the state of the US economy, the Columbus Day holiday will no doubt give the FOMC Chairwoman the time to contemplate the economic outlook.
With the October rate decision soon to be upon us there is a small possibility that the Federal Reserve will decide to increase interest rates. However, the Bank of England Governor, Mr. Mark Carney has expressed his viewed that a move on interest rates is not contingent on the Federal Reserve acting first. Carney expresses this view last Thursday when he said.
“The exact timing of the Fed move is not decisive for the timing of the move by the Bank of England”.
A much more hawkish view on interest rates, was expressed by a former Bank of England, Mr. Andrew Sentence when he said that Central Banks are giving too much significance to areas of concern that are short term in nature such as the current low price of Crude Oil.
Mr. Sentence went on to say,
“We have independent central banks because they are meant to be courageous, they are meant to try and get ahead of the curve, they are meant to do things that politicians might find difficult and they don’t seem to behaving in that way at the moment”.
With a more aggressive tone coming from both former and current Bank of England policymakers, it might be for the Janet Yellen to ditch her prudent attitude on interest rates and take the plunge.
EURUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1460
Target 2: 1.1260
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 1.1235
GBPUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5410
Target 2: 1.5215
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098
Daily control level: 1.5260
USDJPY
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 121.00
Target 2: 119.40
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.81
Daily control level: 119.60
USDCHF
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9735
Target 2: 0.9560
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 0.9740
USDCAD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3060
Target 2: 1.2680
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 1.2990
AUDUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7400
Target 2: 0.7230
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085
Daily control level: 0.7300
GOLD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1172.00
Target 2: 1139.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 16.45
Daily control level: 1136.50
OIL
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 52.00
Target 2: 48.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.78
Daily control level: 48.00
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