MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.09.2015
This week sees the Federal Reserve announce it’s much-anticipated interest rate decision which takes place this coming Thursday.
However, long before this key event taking place the week has already started with Chinese National Bureau of Statistics releasing its Monthly, year on year Industrial Production number.
Although the overnight announcement of 6.1% did manage to print higher than the prior month the trend since the 2010 high continues to be solidly down with this release also missing the 6.4% forecast.
Back to today and Monday has little in the way if data events other than Eurostat releasing its monthly Eurozone monthly Industrial Production number. Thus release is due to take place at 10:00 am London. It is expected that the prior months negative reading of -0.4% will be eclipsed by a forecast of 0.3%.
Traders and investors of the Swiss France however may find that they have a busy morning with both monthly Producer Price Index and year on year Retail Sales number being released this morning at 8:15 am London time.
As a precursor of what is to come later in the week, on Tuesday we have more Central Banks coming into view. The Reserve Bank of Australia early on Tuesday morning will release its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
The Bank of Japan not to be left out on Tuesday will also release its Monetary Policy Statement. This announcement will coincide with a press conference.
Tuesday is actually a very busy day in terms of data with UK CPI being released, together with the important German ZEW Economic Sentiment indicator.
Across the Atlantic and with an eye on what will happen this Thursday we get a glimpse of the how the US consumer is feeling with the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales numbers being announced.
Wednesday we have important jobs numbers from the UK with a splurge of data being released at 9:30 am London time. Simultaneously data will be announced for the UK, Average Earnings, Claimant Count Change and the Unemployment Rate.
The Loonie also comes into focus on Wednesday with Statistics Canada announcing its monthly, Manufacturing Sales number.
A day before the FOMC decision we also have important inflation data from the US with monthly CPI and Core CPI data. Can this release so close to the Federal Reserve announcement have any bearing on Thursday’s decision?
This Thursday is, of course, the big day which Traders and Investors have been waiting for. Setting the tone for Thursday we have the Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda due to speak.
This is followed by the Swiss National Bank announcing its latest LIBOR decision and Monetary Policy Assessment.
Staying in Europe the UK’s Office for National Statistics will publish Retail Sales Data. With the Bank of England Governor and other committee members waiting for the FOMC to move first, a good number will increase the pressure and make an interest rate increase in early 2016 all the more likely.
Leading up to the FOMC decision we have the US building Permits and Unemployment Claims numbers which are being announced at 1:30 pm London time. This is followed by the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 3:00 pm.
Finally, we get to 7:00 pm London and the FOMC announcement for the Federal Funds rate. With many forecasting a hike by 25 basis points from 0.25% to 0.50% whatever is the outcome, it is due to cause lots of market volatility.
Friday, it is very much a case of picking up the pieces of what happened the night before. We do have more action from the Central Banks with the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens speaking and more monetary policy minutes, this time from the Bank of Japan.
The week is rounded off with Canadian Inflation data with both the CPI and Core CPI being announced.
EURUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1450
Target 2: 1.1210
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118
Daily control level: 1.1255
GBPUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5540
Target 2: 1.5320
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110
Daily control level: 1.5400
USDJPY
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 121.75
Target 2: 119.30
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.23
Daily control level: 120.80
USDCHF
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9795
Target 2: 0.9590
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104
Daily control level: 0.9800
USDCAD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3370
Target 2: 1.3130
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119
Daily control level: 1.3175
AUDUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7170
Target 2: 0.6990
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 0.7035
GOLD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1121.00
Target 2: 1091.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 13.64
Daily control level: 1115.00
OIL
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 48.00
Target 2: 42.50
Projected range in ATR’s: 2.74
Daily control level: 46.40
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