MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 21.08.2015
A little over 7 months ago Alexis Tsipras led his SYRIZA party to an election victory on January 26. Mr. Tsipras since taking the leadership of the radical left SYRIZA in 2009 has been a driving force that has swept away the political elite that has taken Greece to the brink of ruin and bankruptcy.
Alexis has had an eventful tenure as the Greek Prime. His party was elected to office on a promise to roll back the much-hated austerity program. His leadership did cause a great deal of political and economic instability, but it also opened up the debate on which way the European project was heading.
Although Tsipras pressed home his domestic popularity by winning a referendum which said no to further austerity, the realities of the grim economic situation and hard line taken by European partners of Greece led to a dramatic U-turn by the Greek Prime Minister.
Alexis Tsipras acceptance of the harsh terms set out in the third austerity programme has now split the SYRIZA party. The left faction of the party led by the former Energy Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis and the former Parliamentary Speaker Zoe Konstantopoulou both former close associates of Alexis Tsipras have become the Greek Prime Ministers most outspoken critics.
The Greek political system has always been known for its fractious character. With the anger and opposition from the radical elements to the new austerity agreement being so strong, the possibility of the left faction splintering away from the core of SYRIZA is now very high.
The strength of internal opposition within his own SYRIZA party and the size political U-Turn which in Greek is called a kolotoumba performed by Mr.Tsipras meant that his resignation and the request of a fresh mandate from the Greek public was always on the cards and as such is not a great surprise.
The Greek Prime Minister has a moral obligation to ask the Greek people to back him and the EUR 86 billion three-year bailout agreement. The calling of the snap election is a risk, but the popularity of Tsipras is high. If you add to this the relief of the Greek public to the acceptance of the austerity programme the possibility of Alexis Tsipras once again leading the rump of what remains of SYRIZA to a second election victory is strong.
The timing of this election could not be better. Tsipras having transformed himself from an activist of the left to a new-born liberal of the political establishment also has support from other European Governments and European and international institutions. In reality only Alexis Tsipras as the leader of a new Greek Government that is untouched by the political scandals, corruption and mismanagement that blighted the establishment regimes of PASOK and New Democracy can sell to the Greek people a rescue plan that is heavy on spending cuts and tax rises.
Does Mr. Tsipras agree to the plan? Well, that is another question but what choice did he have other than the unthinkable of exiting the Eurozone.
EURUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1346
Target 2: 1.1134
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106
Daily control level: 1.1100
GBPUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5790
Target 2: 1.5586
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 1.5600
USDJPY
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 124.09
Target 2: 122.67
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.71
Daily control level: 124.00
USDCHF
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9672
Target 2: 0.9494
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 0.9650
USDCAD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3216
Target 2: 1.2956
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0130
Daily control level: 1.3050
AUDUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7422
Target 2: 0.7246
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088
Daily control level: 0.7400
GOLD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1149.19
Target 2: 1117.97
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.61
Daily control level: 1108.00
OIL
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 42.48
Target 2: 39.52
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.48
Daily control level: 42.50
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