MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.03.2015
EURUSD
The intraday technical outlook
It is Federal Reserve Statement day and the markets are expecting that the word patient is to be dropped.
However there is a growing concern over the strength of the US Dollar and this could limit the room of maneuver for the Fed Boss Jane Yellen to act.
In terms of price action EURUSD has painted a higher low and higher high swing which resulted in an initial test of the channel top.
That the price action is struggling to sustain an meaningful move beneath the 1.0600 level which lines up with multiple year support should give the bulls lots of encouragement.
Alternatively with the market being so bearish thus far corrective rallies have been used as opportunities to short EURUSD and this would logically seem the most appropriate strategy to continue to pursue.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0500 level.
GBPUSD
The intraday technical outlook
GBPUSD has been trading above the 1.4700 level as traders await the UK’s annual budget.
The price action continues to hug the top of the down channel and it appears that there is an attempt to print a higher low formation.
A break out of the down channel could signal higher prices and an attempt to test the 1.4810 level.
Alternatively with the trend being so bearish selling into strength being could offer potential opportunities.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.4810 level.
USDJPY
The intraday technical outlook
As posted previously with USDJPY having broken above its recently formed down there is a strong possibility that we we a resumption of the prior up trend.
Confirmation that such a move is under way would require a break above the 121.50 level.
Alternatively a move back into the down channel followed by a breach of the last isolated low at 121.08 level could signal a continuation of lower prices.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 121.65 level.
USDCHF
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday USDCHF has this morning broken down from a converging triangle formation.
The move lower has traded under the 1.0020 has technically changed the trend to down.
However with the prior up trend being so bullish I am monitoring the price action as it now tests the channel bottom as this area could offer significant support.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9970 level.
AUDUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Although AUDUSD has broken above its down channel we have yet to see any follow through.
The price action has now consolidated within a a tight triangle formation.
I will be today monitoring the price action for tests of the triangle pattern as this could indicate the direction of the next move.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7610 level.
GOLD
The intraday technical outlook
Gold has broken its converging triangle formation to the down side.
With the trend being so bearish I am monitoring the price action for a possible continuation of the downward momentum.
However as posted previously Gold is trading close to November’s low which can be found at the 1133.70 level and this could offer considerable support.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1166.35 level.
OIL
The intraday technical outlook
OILUSD is finding it increasingly difficult to trade higher with every corrective rally slammed down hard by the bears.
With the price action being so bearish a continuation of the downward momentum is a possibility.
This afternoons Crude Oil Inventory report could add further downward pressure on the price of Oil.
Oil is now entering territory not seen since the last financial crisis with support levels at the US$40.85 level and there are still no bulls in sight to stem this tide.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 44.75 level.
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