USDCHF long term bias

USDCHF long term bias

Postby Traveller » Sun Nov 15, 2009 4:50 pm

That's one more pair I watch closely. I've been Short on USDCHF for quite a while and now the time has come to answer the main question once again: "Is this the time to reverse a trade?"

The aswer for me is currently NO.

See the attachments.

The main support at around 0.9640 would conclude the downside move for me, but at the current support level I'm keeping the downside bias and won't review my position until there is more evidence that the market is reversing. For now trend lines are intact, big players continue to favor Swiss Frank, or rather not ready to buy US Dollar back. A stronger motivation should come when we hit the low of mid March 2008, which I consider as a reversal point for my Short position.

So, these are the charts I'm after: EURUSD, AUDUSD and USDCHF. The two last pairs are approaching significant levels and I'm interested to take opportunities I'm after.
Attachments
usdchf_d_bias.png
usdchf_bias.png
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Re: USDCHF long term bias

Postby MDunleavy » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:52 am

The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.0452 but closed higher at 1.0524. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving inside a new minor bullish channel indicating upside correction phase but the major bearish scenario remains intact as long as price move inside the major bearish channel. Immediate resistance at 1.0630. Consistent move above that area and violation to the major bearish channel could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario testing 1.0750. On the downside we need a break below 1.0399 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.0220.The text is written by ActionForex.But I think that will break down.

"P&F USDCHF1 Box Size 3X3 or(0.09%) CLOSE
Data 1.0542 - 1.0454 ~ 0 Month ~ 0.73 Day
Database 1050 records 1.05332 (Last Close)
2010-07-20 14~07
2010-07-21 07~39 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

Code: Select all
1.0542|~3||||__+___________________________________________+_|0%|0.84%
1.0539|~6||||__x_+_________________________________________x_|0.03%|0.81%
1.0536|~9||||__x_o_+_______________________________________x_|0.06%|0.78%
1.0533|~12|||__x_o___+_________________________________+___x_|0.09%|0.76%
1.0530|~15|||__x_o_____+___________________x___x_______x_+_x_|0.11%|0.73%
1.0527|~18|||__x_o_x_____+_________________x_o_x_o_x___x_o_x_|0.14%|0.7%
1.0524|~21|||____o_x_o_____+_______________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_|0.17%|0.67%
1.0521|~24|||____o_x_o_______+_____________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o___|0.2%|0.64%
1.0518|~27|||____o_x_o_________+___________x_o_x_o_x_o_______|0.23%|0.61%
1.0515|~3O|||____o_x_o___________+_________x_o___o_x_________|0.26%|0.58%
1.0512|~33|||____o_x_o_____________+___x___x_____o_x_________|0.28%|0.55%
1.0509|~36|||____o_x_o_______________+_x_o_x_____o_x_________|0.31%|0.53%
1.0506|~39|||____o___o_________________x_o_x_____o_x_________|0.34%|0.5%
1.0503|~42|||________o_x_______________x_o_x_____o_x_________|0.37%|0.47%
1.0500|~45|||________o_x_o_____________x_o_______o_________+_|0.4%|0.44%
1.0497|~48|||________o_x_o_____________x_________________+___|0.43%|0.41%
1.0494|~51|||________o_x_o_____________x_______________+_____|0.46%|0.38%
1.0491|~54|||________o_x_o_____________x_____________+_______|0.48%|0.35%
1.0488|~57|||________o_x_o_____________x___________+_________|0.51%|0.33%
1.0485|~6O|||________o___o_____________x_________+___________|0.54%|0.3%
1.0482|~63|||____________o_x___x___x___x_______+_____________|0.57%|0.27%
1.0479|~66|||____________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____+_______________|0.6%|0.24%
1.0476|~69|||____________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___+_________________|0.63%|0.21%
1.0473|~72|||____________o_x_o_x_o___o___+___________________|0.65%|0.18%
1.0470|~75|||____________o_x_o_________+_____________________|0.68%|0.15%
1.0467|~78|||____________o_x_________+_______________________|0.71%|0.12%
1.0464|~81|||____________o_x_______+_________________________|0.74%|0.1%
1.0461|~84|||____________o_x_____+___________________________|0.77%|0.07%
1.0458|~87|||____________o_x___+_____________________________|0.8%|0.04%
1.0455|~9O|||____________o_x_+_______________________________|0.83%|0.01%
1.0452|~93|||____________o_+_________________________________|0.85%|-0.02%
|||||||~96|||____________+___________________________________|100%|-100%
Column|~99|||O_5_1_7_1_6_1_1_4_4_3_3_3_1_4_1_5_5_1_9_3_4_3_6_|
Count||~1O2||____1___4___7_O___________3___O_____O___________|


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Re: USDCHF long term bias

Postby MDunleavy » Sun Oct 10, 2010 5:00 pm

Trade Idea: Usd/Chf - Sell Limit,Stop at 0.9640; Target: 0.9520 ; Stop: 0.9701.
========================
USDCHF continues its bearish movement from 1.1730 and the fall extended to as low as 0.9555 level.
Further decline is still possible next week and next target would be at 0.9400 area and even 0.9200 area.
Resistance is at 0.9840\80, as long as this level holds, downtrend will continue.
========================
Dollar Index and the Swiss franc is well correlated with each other.
------------------------
And guess from, since September 28, the USDX has already fallen from 79.60 to 77.20.
The 77.00 support, however, had kept the index from falling.
Given this and its oversold condition, the index may range for awhile or even rally before continuing its descent.
A break of the 77.00 level would push the index down to around 74.00.
========================
"P&F _DXY1 Box Size 10X3 or(0.38%) CLOSE
Data 79.8 - 76.92 ~ 0.36 Month ~ 10.67 Day
Database 12000 records 77.2 (Last Close)
2010-09-28 07~01
2010-10-08 22~59 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

Code: Select all
79.8|~1O|||x_+_____________________________________________|0.00%|
79.7|~2O|||x_o_+___________________________________________|0.13%|
79.6|~3O|||x_o___+_________________________________________|0.25%|
79.5|~4O|||x_o_x___+_______________________________________|0.38%|
79.4|~5O|||__o_x_o___+_____________________________________|0.5%|3
79.3|~6O|||__o_x_o_____+___________________________________|0.63%|
79.2|~7O|||__o___o_______+_________________________________|0.75%|
79.1|~8O|||______o_________+_______________________________|0.88%|
79.0|~9O|||______o_________x_+_____________________________|1.00%|
78.9|~1OO||______o_x___x___x_o_+___________________________|1.13%|
78.8|~11O||______o_x_o_x_o_x_o___+_________________________|1.25%|
78.7|~12O||______o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____+_______________________|1.38%|
78.6|~13O||______o___o___o_x_o_____x_+_____________________|1.50%|
78.5|~14O||______________o_x_o_x___x_o_+___________________|1.63%|
78.4|~15O||______________o___o_x_o_x_o___+_________________|1.75%|
78.3|~16O||__________________o_x_o_x_o_____+_______________|1.88%|
78.2|~17O||__________________o_x_o___o_______+_____________|2.01%|
78.1|~18O||__________________o_x_____o_________+___________|2.13%|
78.0|~19O||__________________o_______o___________+_________|2.26%|
77.9|~2OO||__________________________o_x___________+_______|2.38%|
77.8|~21O||__________________________o_x_o_x_________+_____|2.51%|
77.7|~22O||__________________________o_x_o_x_o_____x___+___|2.63%|
77.6|~23O||__________________________o_x_o_x_o_x___x_o_x_+_|2.76%|
77.5|~24O||__________________________o___o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|2.88%|
77.4|~25O||__________________________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|3.01%|
77.3|~26O||__________________________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|3.13%|
77.2|~27O||__________________________________o_x_o___o_x_o_|3.26%|
77.1|~28O||__________________________________o_x_____o_+_o_|3.38%|
77.0|~29O||__________________________________o_x_____+___+_|3.51%|
76.9|~3OO||__________________________________o_____________|3.63%|
Column|31O|4_6_3_9_3_3_3_5_6_1_5_3_4_1_4_4_3_9_7_4_5_6_5_5_|
Count|32O||__________________O_______1_____________________|


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Re: USDCHF long term bias

Postby MDunleavy » Mon Dec 20, 2010 9:28 am

A look at the CHF, its historical use as a safe haven currency.
P&F =>>> Chf\Jpy & Jpy\Chf; Usd\Chf; Gbp\Chf; Eur\Chf and Chf Index.
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