AUDUSD long term bias

AUDUSD long term bias

Postby Traveller » Sun Nov 15, 2009 4:12 pm

I bought AUD earlier this year to diversify my portfolio, which most before that mostly in US Dollars.
I haven't expected such a large trend, but now it feels great.
At the moment I'm paying close attention to the pair, since we're near the major resistance level, where I will be taking profits, but for now the question I'm trying to answer for myself is: "Is it the time to sell AUD?" The answer is NO.

Big players continue to buy AUD, although by now it look like they are also seeing what I'm seeing - the narrowing channel and the proximity of the resistance level, so the activity is slowly decreasing while the buying bias remains.

See the attachemt for weekly charts with the channel and resistance level.

On Daily charts the pair is challenging the previous High and should be successful in breaching it. All supporting lines, SMAs and channels are holding well.
So, the bias is strongly bullish, no need to Sell just yet.
Attachments
audusd_bias.png
audusdweekly_bias.png
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Re: AUDUSD long term bias

Postby MDunleavy » Sun Jul 04, 2010 7:18 am

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook
AUD/USD dropped sharply to as low as 0.8315 last week. The break of 0.8549 support suggests that corrective rise from 0.8066 is finished with three waves up to 0.8858, just ahead of 61.8% retracement of 0.9380 to 0.8066 at 0.8878. While some recovery might be seen initially this week, we'd expect upside to be limited well below 0.8858 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8315 will target a test on 0.8066 support next.
The text is written by ActionForex.

"P&F AUDUSD10080 Box Size 20X3 or(8.21%) HI/LO
Data 0.9849 - 0.4773 ~ 252 Month ~ 7686 Day
Database 1099 records 0.84138 (Last Close)
1989-06-11 00~00
2010-06-27 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

Code: Select all
0.9800|~2OO||______________________________x_+_______________________|0.5%|105.32%
0.9600|~4OO||______________________________x_o_+___________+_________|2.53%|101.13%
0.9400|~6OO||______________________________x_o___+_________x_+_______|4.56%|96.94%
0.9200|~8OO||__________________________x___x_o_____+_______x_o_x_____|6.59%|92.75%
0.9000|~1OOO|__________________________x_o_x_o_______+_____x_o_x_o___|8.62%|88.56%
0.8800|~12OO|______________________x___x_o_x_o_________+___x_o_x_o_x_|10.65%|84.37%
0.8600|~14OO|__+___________________x_o_x_o___o___________+_x_o___o_x_|12.68%|80.18%
0.8400|~16OO|__x_+_________________x_o_x_____o_____________x_____o_x_|14.71%|75.99%
0.8200|~18OO|__x_o_x_______________x_o_x_____o_____________x_____o___|16.74%|71.8%
0.8000|~2OOO|__x_o_x_o_____x_______x_o_x_____o_____________x_________|18.77%|67.61%
0.7800|~22OO|__x_o_x_o_+___x_o_x___x_o_______o_____________x_________|20.8%|63.42%
0.7600|~24OO|o_x_o_x_o___+_x_o_x_o_x_________o_____________x_________|22.83%|59.23%
0.7400|~26OO|o___o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x_________o_____________x_______+_|24.87%|55.04%
0.7200|~28OO|____o_x_o_____x_o_x_o___________o_x_______x___x_____+___|26.9%|50.85%
0.7000|~3OOO|____o_x_o_____x_o_x_____________o_x_o_x___x_o_x___+_____|28.93%|46.66%
0.6800|~32OO|____o_x_o_____x_o_______________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_+_______|30.96%|42.47%
0.6600|~34OO|____o___o_x___x_________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________|32.99%|38.28%
0.6400|~36OO|________o_x_o_x_______________+_o___o_x_o_x_o___________|35.02%|34.09%
0.6200|~38OO|________o_x_o_x_____________+_______o___o_+_____________|37.05%|29.9%
0.6000|~4OOO|________o_x_o_x___________+_____________+_______________|39.08%|25.71%
0.5800|~42OO|________o_x_o_x_________+_______________________________|41.11%|21.52%
0.5600|~44OO|________o___o_x_______+_________________________________|43.14%|17.33%
0.5400|~46OO|____________o_x_____+___________________________________|45.17%|13.14%
0.5200|~48OO|____________o_x___+_____________________________________|47.2%|8.95%
0.5000|~5OOO|____________o_x_+_______________________________________|49.23%|4.76%
0.4800|~52OO|____________o_+_________________________________________|51.26%|0.57%
0.4600|~54OO|____________+___________________________________________|53.29%|-3.62%
Column|||||||2_5_9_8_1_5_9_1_6_5_3_8_5_7_3_6_1_4_5_4_4_5_4_1_4_3_5_3_|
Count||||||||________3_____6_________________7_____________5_________|


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Re: AUDUSD long term bias

Postby MDunleavy » Sat Sep 11, 2010 4:42 pm

The Aussie dollar is advancing to test resistance at 0.9350.
Reversal below 0.88 would signal another test of primary support at 0.81.
Break out above strong resistance at 0.9350 appears less likely, but would offer a target of parity if confirmed.
Technically, the AUD USD is in an uptrend after crossing the last swing top at 0.9221 on Thursday.
The pace of the current rally may begin to slow down as this market approaches a series of tops at 0.9323, 0.9337, 0.9364 and 0.9387.
The big number to overtake will be the November 2009 top at .9405.
Hence, even in case of another rise, I'd expect strong resistance near to 0.9404 to limit upside and bring another fall to continue the consolidation.
However, decisive break of 0.9404 will invalidate this view and target 0.9849 high.

"P&F AUDUSD1 Box Size 10X3 or(0.33%) CLOSE
Data 0.9275 - 0.9092 ~ 0.16 Month ~ 4.83 Day
Database 6862 records 0.92631 (Last Close)
2010-09-06 03~04
2010-09-10 22~59 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

Code: Select all
0.9280|~1O|||____________________________+_________|-0.05%|2.07%
0.9270|~2O|||____________________________x_+_____+_|0.05%|1.96%
0.9260|~3O|||____________________________x_o_x___x_|0.16%|1.85%
0.9250|~4O|||____________________________x_o_x_o_x_|0.27%|1.74%
0.9240|~5O|||____________________________x_o_x_o_x_|0.38%|1.63%
0.9230|~6O|||________________________x___x_o_x_o___|0.49%|1.52%
0.9220|~7O|||________________________x_o_x_o_x_____|0.59%|1.41%
0.9210|~8O|||________________________x_o_x_o_x_____|0.7%|1.3%
0.9200|~9O|||________________________x_o___o_______|0.81%|1.19%
0.9190|~1OO||+___________________x___x___________+_|0.92%|1.08%
0.9180|~11O||x_+_________________x_o_x_________+___|1.02%|0.97%
0.9170|~12O||x_o_+_______________x_o_x_______+_____|1.13%|0.86%
0.9160|~13O||x_o_x_+_________x___x_o_______+_______|1.24%|0.75%
0.9150|~14O||x_o_x_o_+_______x_o_x_______+_________|1.35%|0.64%
0.9140|~15O||__o_x_o_x_+_x___x_o_x_____+___________|1.46%|0.53%
0.9130|~16O||__o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____+_____________|1.56%|0.42%
0.9120|~17O||______o_x_o_x_o_x_____+_______________|1.67%|0.31%
0.9110|~18O||______o_x_o___o_x___+_________________|1.78%|0.2%
0.9100|~19O||______o_x_____o_x_+___________________|1.89%|0.09%
0.9090|~2OO||______o_______o_+_____________________|1.99%|-0.02%
Column|||||||4_5_3_7_5_3_3_5_7_3_6_3_7_3_7_7_6_3_3_|
Count||||||||______________________________________|


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