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Weekly Market outlook and analysis By

PostPosted: Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:42 am
by kartik
Weekly Technical Outlook GBP/USD by acfx
The prevailing Daily trend is short but with a warning as the Alligator indicator is long.
The daily chart has been in a downtrend defined by GBPUSD putting in a series of lower highs and lower lowers since the breach of the 10th July swing low.
The stochastic has breached the overbought area and negatively diverging
The price action is confined within a large converging triangle that was formed off the January 2009 lows. It would be expected that resolution of this pattern would be volatile and with a great deal of momentum.
The Alligator indicator is bullish with any pull back into the deferred moving averages being a buying opportunity in lower time frames.
Possible range
The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 240 pips. This implies that GBPUSD could potentially trade between 1.577 and 1.625.
Long scenario
 Conservative scenario is neutral as we have breached the previous fractal high at 1.5991.
 Aggressive long wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s and identify entry off a lower time frame.
Short scenario
 Conservative short, trade beneath 1.5602 being the last weekly fractal.
 Aggressive short into the Alligator indicator.
Swings short, Alligator long. ... outlook-4/