Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:16 am

Date : 2nd April 2020.

FX Action – 2nd April 2020.


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A 10%-plus rebound in crude prices catalyzed gains in oil-correlating currencies, including the Canadian Dollar and Norwegian krona, and other commodity currencies, while helping give stock markets a lift after a sputtering session in Asia. The wake of ugly 6.6 mln surge in US jobless claims, which was about double the consensus forecast, weighed on global markets. US equities reversed lower as risk appetite eroded again, taking back earlier gains, while Aussie for example has more than given up intraday gains, with AUDUSD presently pushing on lows at 0.6019, down just over a big figure from the intraday high that was seen during the Sydney session.

The massive gain in initial claims, which followed a similarly hefty rise the previous week, was well anticipated but provided a timely reminder of what is to come.

USDCAD has dropped by over 0.6%, driven by a bid for the Canadian Dollar amid a 10%-plus oil price surge. The pair posted a low at 1.4079, though has so far remained above its Wednesday low at 1.4060. A Bloomberg report, citing sources with inside knowledge, said that China is moving forward with plans to buy oil for its emergency reserves. Beijing is reportedly aiming to build up a crude stockpile that would cover 90 days of net imports with the possibility of expanding this to 180 days. China is the world’s biggest oil importer and is taking advantage of the 60%-odd collapse in oil prices. USOIL prices posted a 6-day high at $22.55, but still remain down by just over 65% from the highs seen in early January. This level of price decline in Canada’s principal export, while it sustains, marks a significant deterioration in the Canadian economy’s terms of trade. Assuming that China’s buying spree won’t close this gap substantially, given the glut of crude flooding the market, and given that demand will remain weak for a historically protracted amount of time, CAD should remain apt to underperformance. In the medium term, USDCAD could retest its recent 17-year high at 1.4669.

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Both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD rallied, although both remained within their respective Wednesday ranges against the US Dollar.

USDJPY and most yen crosses, in particular those involving a commodity currency, have gained concomitantly with the improvement in risk appetite, which saw the yen’s safe haven premium unwind some.

GBP is again ranking among the currency outperformers today, gaining over 0.7% versus the Dollar and by over 0.8% against both the Euro and Yen on the day so far. Market narratives have been pointing to the impact of the Fed’s launching of a new “FIMA” facility (announced Tuesday) , which will start on April 6 and allow foreign central banks to obtain Dollars without selling Treasuries. This will run alongside the swap lines created with 14 central banks, and the two should ease strains in global dollar funding. This is seen as a particular positive for the Pound, given the UK’s recently proven vulnerability to global liquidity shortages, with its large financial sector and dependence on foreign investment inflows (equivalent to about 4% of GDP) to finance its large current account deficit.

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The Pound had underperformed even commodity currencies during the worst of the recent global liquidity crunch, which ran from about March 10th through to March 19th, before measures by the Fed and other central banks provided a mitigating impact. Sterling lost about 10% of its value in trade-weighted terms over this period, and tumbled by 12% versus the Dollar, hitting a 35-year low, and an 11-year low against the Euro. The worst now looks to be over for the Pound, especially with markets starting to bet that the UK will ask the EU for an extension of its post-Brexit transition membership of the Union’s customs union and single market. Neither the UK nor EU has the resources to conduct detailed trade negotiations under the prevailing circumstance of the coronavirus crisis. This is seen as Sterling positive as it will avoid the possibility of the UK leaving the transition period and shifting a big chunk of its trade onto less favourable WTO trade terms.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:53 am

Date : 3rd April 2020.

Inured to the bad news.


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The markets are relatively inured to the bad news, as the weekly jobless claims have already given us the increasingly ugly news on the labor market. US equities are modestly weaker amid risk-off sentiment and an employment report that revealed a much larger than anticipated -701k plunge in March and a jump in the jobless rate to 8.7% from 7.0%.

Meanwhile, the Dollar showed mixed reaction to the employment report. These numbers were worse than expected, though shouldn’t really be a surprise given the more timely surge in jobless claims figures seen the past two weeks. USDJPY initially fell to 108.25 before turning back up again at 108.60, while EURUSD fell to 1.0780 from 1.0800. USDCHF extended gains up to 0.9794, reversing nearly 76% of the decline seen since March 20.

EURUSD concurrently carved out a 9-day low at 1.0774, making this the 5th consecutive day of lower lows while extending the correction from the 17-day high that was seen last Friday at 1.1148. The pair still remains above the low seen during the recent Dollar liquidity crunch, at 1.0637, before the Fed and other central banks stepped in to try and satiate the demand for cash dollars. Its overall outlook meanwhile, remains negative, with the asset extending well below all 3 daily SMAs and with its daily momentum indicators negatively configured. Hence the Dollar bid looks to hold.

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The March establishment and household employment surveys captured more of the early layoffs than the markets had assumed, with massive declines for payrolls and hours-worked, big drops for civilian employment, the labor force, and the participation rate, and the start of the upward march for the jobless rate. Wages were also firm, likely due to the concentration of job loss among lower-paid workers.

The specifics: March nonfarm payrolls dropped -701k after February’s 275k increase (was 273k), which ended a 9.5 year run of employment gains. The employment in the goods-producing sector fell -54k from the 57k (was 61k) rise. Service sector jobs slumped -659k after rising 185k (was 167k) in February. Leisure/hospitality jobs plunged -459k from the prior 45k (was 51k) increase. Education/health care jobs were down -76k versus a 65k (was 54k) increase previously. Government jobs edged up 12k, with 18k added to the Federal payroll. The unemployment rate jumped to 4.4% (4.38%) from 3.5%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% versus the prior 0.3% gain.

The weakness captured in the mid-month March jobs report may prompt downward revisions in the Q1 GDP estimate, on the assumption that the Quarter may capture more of the economic plunge than previously assumed.

Beyond the timing of Q1 versus Q2 growth figures, however, the surprise in today‘s report is more the degree to which the surveys captured late-March events than the magnitude of declines, since the bulk of the jobs loss will still be captured in the surveys for April.

Since the Fed is already in maximum easing mode, it is unlikely that reports like today‘s will alter the monetary policy path.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:01 am

Date : 6th April 2020.

Events to Look Out For Next Week


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It’s a holiday shortened week ahead as most markets will be closed on Friday for the Easter holidays, however the novel coronavirus remains the focal point. The rapid upswing in market volatility seen in March should continue in April as governments, central banks, households and businesses further adapt to the ongoing pandemic and uncertain outlook. Hence this will be another week of increased attention to the data which will incorporate more of the impacts of the global shutdowns and will help start to quantify the severity of the economic impacts amid still very uncertain times.

Monday – 06 April 2020

OPEC Meeting (USOIL, GMT 19:00) – Azerbaijan’s energy ministry said that a meeting of the OPEC+ group of oil producers is planned for April 6 and will be held as a video conference.

Tuesday – 07 April 2020

Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement (AUD, GMT 04:30) – Positioning in 30-day interbank cash rate futures this week implied a 60% chance for the RBA to cut its benchmark interest rate to zero from 0.25% at the upcoming policy meeting, which is up from odds of 31% for such a move that were being discounted just over a week ago. However in the March RBA minutes, they provided colour around the 25bp rate cut and the adoption of QE but they made clear that there is no appetite for negative interest rates.

JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not been filled on the last business day of the month. February’s JOLTS job openings is expected to fall slightly at 6.476M, following the 6.963M in January.

Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 15:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country.

API weekly Crude Oil Stocks (USOIL, GMT 20:30)

Wednesday – 08 April 2020

EIA weekly Crude Oil Stocks Change (USOIL, GMT 14:30)

FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. In the last FOMC statement, on March 15, the FOMC slashed rates 100 bps to 0% – 0.25% in an emergency move, getting ahead of the curve.

Thursday – 09 April 2020

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11:30) – The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. At the same time, in the last meeting, ECB announced a EUR 750 bln pandemic emergency program (PEPP) and introduced new QE measures worth EUR 120 bln and additional loan programs, while they left rates unchanged at the March policy meeting.

Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to decline to a -0.2% March PPI headline with a 0.2% increase in the core index. The continued energy price pull-back through the month likely weighed on the headline.

Employment Change (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Employment change is seen spiking to 10.0k in the number of employed people in March, compared to the spike at 30.3k in February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.6%.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary April Michigan sentiment reading is forecast at 95, up from the 89.1 in March.

Friday – 10 April 2020

Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The March’s Chinese CPI is expected to remain unchanged on a monthly and yearly basis.

Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – The headline CPI has been estimated to a -0.2% March headline CPI drop with a 0.2% core price increase, following respective February readings of 0.1% and 0.2%. As with PPI, the headline inflation figures will be depressed well into 2020 from the OPEC price war, though the core figures will face divergent pressures that are partly downward due to diminished demand with COVID-19, but upward due to supply shortages that may prompt some erratic swings.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:22 am

Date : 7th April 2020.

FX Update – April 7 – A wee bit more Risk.


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Trading Leveraged Products is risky

AUDUSD & GBPUSD, H1

The commodity currencies outperformed some more, as did many developing-world currencies amid a backdrop of rising stock and commodity markets. Equity markets are amid day two of a rally pinned on tentative signs that the global coronavirus infection and mortality rates might be near to peaking. The Fed’s decision to finance new “payroll protection” loans has also bolstered the US economic response plans. AUDUSD has rallied 1.7% in printing a one-week high at 0.6192, while AUDJPY has rallied by 1.4% in making a high at 67.38. The Aussie dollar is now up 3% from last Friday’s closing levels. The Kiwi and Canadian dollars are also up. USDCAD has dropped to an eight-day low at 1.4011. The Dollar, Yen and, to a lesser degree, the Swiss Franc, have continued to underperform most other currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USDIndex has declined by 0.6% in pegging a five-day low at 100.79, while EURUSD concurrently lifted by 0.7% in making a five-day high, at 1.0876. The pair is up by just over 1% from its Monday lows. The combination of risk-on positioning in markets and the Fed’s aggressive dollar liquidity provisions, which forms part of a crisis-era level of monetary accommodation, have been bearish tonic for the Dollar. Dollar underperformance saw USDJPY dip back under 109.00, though the Yen itself trader softer against most other currencies as its safe-haven premium is whittled down.

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Sterling dipped on the news that PM Johnson was moved to ICU and had received oxygen, although Downing Street stated that he was still conscience and that Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will lead the UK government as long as Johnson is incapacitated. From lows of 1.2162 earlier, a weaker USD, has Cable rally over 170 pips to 1.2335. Next resistance is R2 and the upper Bollinger band around 1.2375, 1.2400 and then R3 at 1.2420. Support sits at 1.2300 and the Daily Pivot Point, a 50.0 Fibonacci level and 200hr moving average at 1.2250.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:02 am

Date : 8th April 2020.

April 8 – Europe and EUR update.


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AUDUSD & GBPUSD, H1

Sentiment collapsed further in European session on the news that EU finance ministers failed to reach deal and also on the announcement from German institutes, which they estimated nearly 10% contraction in Q2, the sharpest decline since records began in 1970. This topped the concerns of pandemic and related shutdown of the economy.

EU leaders will meet again tomorrow. Discussions on how to finance a European wide response package to the pandemic have not yet found a compromise. Demands for Eurobonds clashing with the red lines against mutualising debt in countries such as Germany, which would make the introduction of new financing measures a lengthy affair even if officials were to agree to such a step. The southern European states (especially Italy) are keen to have debt mutualisation (“coronabonds”) as part of the package. The most likely outcome is a use of ESM funds to finance immediate aid measures, coupled with funds from the EU budget and the EIB investment bank to finance economic measures not just through the immediate crisis, but to kick start the recovery once lock downs have been lifted.

Last but not least for European economy, is the fact that ECB lowers collateral standards, to keep credit flowing. The central bank announced that it will temporarily lower standards for the collateral that banks can use to access ECB funds. The move is aimed at keeping credit flowing through the crisis and will also allow Greek debt to be used. Furthermore the haircut applied to collateral, which will allow banks to borrow more money against the same amount of collateral. As a result the ECB will take on more risk onto its own balance sheet, but the hope is that by strengthening banks’ access to funds the central bank can boost lending to households and businesses. For Greece it will also give the government more room to finance its measures to get the economy through the pandemic. The central bank stressed that the “measures are temporary for the duration of the pandemic crisis” and will be reassessed later in the year.

Hence as risk-on has turned today into a risk-off, the EUR weakens so far today on USD strength. It will be very important for the long term stability of the bloc that there will be a clear signal of solidarity at tomorrow’s juncture.

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EURUSD concurrently declined by almost 0.5% in making a low at 1.0829, resuming the bearish outlook in the daily picture for the asset. Yesterday’s rally spread concerns whether the EURUSD possible trend revernsal however today’s swing lower again along with the decline for 7th consecutive day below 20- and 50-day SMA suggest that yesterday’s rally was just a correction.

In the 1-hour chart, EURUSD is moving within a tight downchannel since 1.0925 peak, with lower ups and downs seen since then. Hence in the near term any recovery within the channel could be interpret as a correction prior a pullback. Intraday momentum indicators are mixed with RSI at neutral zone posting lower lows since yesterday, while MACD lines have been zeroed suggesting that bulls have lost the control today. Additionally, the mark of a hummingbird by Bollinger bands pattern, which indicates a bearish signal in the daily chart, could signal further weakness in the near term.
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In order the near term picture to turn to positive again, the hourly RSI needs to sustain a move above 50, while we need to see a swing outside the channel and above the confluence of the latest up fractal and the 20-hour EMA, at 1.0892. Meanwhile, in the medium term outlook, the asset is facing a strong Resistance area at 1.0950-1.0965 (50% Fib. retracement from 1.1146 downleg and 50-day SMA). A decisive breakout above this area could imply to the continuation of a recovery for the asset.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:02 am

Date : 9th April 2020.

FX Update – April 9 – 4 Key Events Today.


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AUDUSD & GBPUSD, H1

Narrow ranges have been prevailing in currency markets ahead of some big event risk items on today’s calendar.

Asian and European stock markets, and US index futures, have retained buoyancy amid hopes that the peak global coronavirus infection rate may be approaching, which could mark the end of “phase 1” of the pandemic, with “phase 2” being how to exit from lockdowns while there is, as yet, no vaccine or cure.

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EURUSD has posted a 40-pip range so far, with a two-day low at 1.0840 marking the downside limit. USDJPY has been idling in a 26-pip range, with 109.06 marking the upside cap. Cable has settled in the mid-to-upper 1.2300s, below yesterday’s one-week high at 1.2421. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains in intensive care for what is now a fourth day. Official updates, as of yesterday, reported that he was responding well to treatment, but after downplaying his condition ahead of him being admitted to hospital and then an ICU, there is a degree of uncertainty about the accuracy of this. AUDUSD has edged out a 24-day high at 0.6246, buoyed by the current optimism in stock and commodity markets. USDCAD has posted a range of 1.4000-14054, holding within yesterday’s range.

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Ahead today, attention will be on:

1. The recommencement of the EU finance ministers’ meeting, at 15:00 GMT after yesterday’s meeting failed to find an accord on a region-wide fiscal plan to offset the impact of virus-containment measures.

2. The OPEC+ group of oil producing nations will also begin its teleconference meeting, from 14:00 GMT.Markets are looking for an agreement to slash crude output by 10 mln barrels a day. There is significant scepticism among oil analysts that even a cut of this magnitude would be sufficient to offset the level of recent demand destruction.

3. In the US, the weekly jobless claims report will once again take top billing (it’s expected to once again paint a dismal picture), along with ongoing deliberations in the US Congress on fiscal relief measures.

4. Finally, FED Chair Powell is scheduled on a conference call from the Brookings Institution in Washington DC.

Note that trading will thin into the long weekend and tomorrow’s Good Friday holiday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:33 am

Date : 10th April 2020.

EURUSD Turns Higher | April 10.


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EURUSD,H1

The EURUSD closed at a six-day high (1.0928) and above the 20-day moving average for the first time in 9 days, yesterday ahead of the extended Easter holiday weekend. Action from the Fed, helped weaken the Dollar and action, from the EU supported the EUR. Today the pair continues to track higher in extremely thin markets and very low volume to 1.0945. Next resistance is the upper Bollinger band at 1.0955 and R1 at 1.0973 with the Daily pivot point sitting at 1.0906 above the psychological 1.0900. The Daily chart has resistance (50-day moving average and 38.2 Fibonacci level at 1.10970 and then the 200-day moving average and 50.0 Fib level at 1.1070, before the 61.8 Fib at 1.1180. Immediate support sits at 1.0900, the April low at 1.0775 with the March low sitting at 1.0635.

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The Fed announced new unprecedented facilities to deal with the coronavirus and the containment policies that have largely shut the US economy. Under these new measures, which include programmes to support state and local governments, as well as small and mid-sized companies, the Fed will provide up to $2.3 tln in additional aid. The Dollar got hit across the board as a result, leaving this a case of USD weakness as opposed to EUR strength. Brave new world.

The EUR also received a lift as European Finance Ministers agree financing of joint virus response. The immediate support measures focus on three pillars.

* First a EUR 100 bln (or around 0.7% of EU GDP) employment re-insurance – SURE – designed to support wage subsidies, for furloughed workers and self-employed. This measure will not just help those temporarily laid off, but also help companies to keep on trained staff through the lockdowns and thus lay the ground for a quick restart of production and work once lockdowns are being lifted.

* The European Investment Bank (EIB) will also provide EUR 200 bln liquidity to support small and medium sized companies, in countries where support is limited. These are loans and costs will only be realised if they are defaulted on.

* The last part of the package – focused on the Eurozone – are EUR 240 bln of credit lines to sovereigns that will be provided by the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). Unlike the original bailout funds, for which the ESM was set up, these will come with very few conditions attached. The only condition is that the funds must be used to cover direct and indirect health , cure and prevention related costs. The ESM is jointly backed by Eurozone governments and offer a sort of “Eurobond-light”. The ESM always offered the best way to jointly fund a direct response, as a new “Coronabond” or “Coronafund”, would have taken a long time to set up and faced additional legal hurdles at national level. The use of the ESM also paves the way for the ECB to use the OMT program – if necessary – to support the funding.
All these measures cover the initial response to the challenges of locked down economies and the European Commission will be setting up investment programs financed through the multi annual budget to support the recovery once lockdowns have ended, in addition to measures already agreed.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:37 am

Date : 13th April 2020.

Events To Look Out For This Week


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The shortened week starts with major markets closed on Easter Monday, but overcompensates on Wednesday and Thursday with the BoC rate decision and Press Conference, Australian employment data and Inflation from the EU.

Tuesday – 14 April 2020

Trade Balance (CNY, GMT N/A) – The Chinese trade balance is expected to turn out positive in March, standing at $18 bln, compared to the deficit of $7 billion in February.

Wednesday – 15 April 2020

Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have declined to -3.4% for headline retail sales and -0.9% for the ex-auto figure, following February dips of -0.5% for the headline and -0.4% ex-autos.

Event of the week – BoC Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00 – 15:15) – On March 27, the Bank of Canada cut 50 bps to 0.25%. A rate reduction to the 0.25% setting was widely expected either at or before the April 15 announcement date. Hence in this week’s meeting no change of rate is expected. As they stated at the time: “This unscheduled rate decision brings the policy rate to its effective lower bound and is intended to provide support to the Canadian financial system and the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic.” The Bank launched two new programs: 1. Commercial Paper Purchase Program (CPPP) to help alleviate strains in short-term funding markets and thereby preserve a key source of funding for businesses and 2. Acquisition of GoC securities in the secondary market, with purchases beginning with a minimum of C$5 bln per week across the yield curve. The Bank is coordinating with the G7 and fiscal authorities and “stands ready to take further action as required to support the Canadian economy and financial system and to keep inflation on target.”

Thursday – 16 April 2020

Labour Market Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – As the world changed in March as the pandemic prompted widespread shutdowns of economies across the globe, employment change for March is expected to have significantly decreased to -40K from 26.7K in February, while the unemployment rate is expected to have increased to 5.5% in March, compared to 5.1% in the previous month.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP preliminary inflation for March is anticipated to remain unchanged at 1.3% y/y.

Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should dip to a 1.300 mln pace in March, after falling to a 1.599 mln pace in February from a 14-year high of 1.624 mln in January. Permits are expected to fall to 1.360 mln in March, after dipping to 1.452 mln in February. Permits have followed a solid growth path since Q2 of 2019, alongside strength in starts.

Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – The disruptions from COVID-19 and the government’s policies including containment and relief measures are expected to continue boosting claims to unprecedented levels.

Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen falling to -35.0 versus a 37-month high of 36.7 in February. The March reading for the Philly Fed marked a low back to July ’12. April’s reading is now expected to decline further, to -26. The markets will focus on the ongoing hit from the COVID-19 outbreak and associated mandatory business closures in the April “soft data” reports. The indexes should bounce when various closure orders are lifted, but we have yet to see when this will be.

Friday – 17 April 2020

Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The first Quarter of 2020 growth is expected to slow down significantly, confirming the damage the pandemic has inflicted on economies in that part of the world. The reading is expected at -10.0% q/q from the 1.5% q/q seen for the Q3 and Q4 of 2019 .

EU CPI inflation (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Both the core and the overall CPI inflation rates are expected to accelerate in a monthly basis to 1.1% and 0.5% respectively.

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Andria Pichidi
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HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:03 pm

Date : 14th April 2020.

Risk on, Risk off…


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EURJPY, in contrast to EURUSD, has nudged modestly lower on the back of a moderate safe-haven bid whıch boosted Yen. This has drıfted the pair to the mid 117.50, nearing last week’s bottom and extending its action far away from the 20-day SMA but also significantly below the midline of the 2020 downchannel for a second consecutive day.

Yesterday’s high at 118.68 has so far remained unchallenged, while yesterday’s bottom has not broken yet to confirm the continuation of decline. Risk-off conditions prevailed, weighing on the pair, though the move lower may have been exacerbated by European holiday thinned markets. Now, however, the global markets are returning to full participation following the long weekends in many financial centres in Europe and Asia-Pacific.

Economic data has been a secondary consideration even as the reports begin to show the depth of the devastation wrought by the shuttering of the economy last month — the huge declines expected in activity have been realized, and then some. Last week, to some relief, European and Eurozone finance ministers finally managed to agree on a joint support package to address the immediate costs of measures designed to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. There are now a number of states in the US and a number of countries in the Eurozone, including Spain and Italy, that looking at a phased reopening in economies.

Hence this is expected to keep the EUR in a choppy trading pattern in the near term between 117.30-117.93, unless sellers manage to direct a decisive move below 117.30. This could trigger March lows and a Lower Bollinger Band pattern at 116.11-116.40.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:55 am

Date : 15th April 2020.

FX Update – April 15 – Commodity Currencies Reverse.


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The commodity currencies have come under pressure with stock markets taking a step back in Asia today, and with USA500 futures showing declines of over 0.5%.

The Canadian Dollar has also declined, setting USDCAD up for its first up day in a week, with the pair posting a 2-day high at 1.3960, as oil prices remain on the back foot and as US Dollar. USOil prices have also remained heavy after it printed a 2-week low at $19.95 late yesterday, with the OPEC++ group’s near 10 mln barrel per day output cut, and hints of bigger cuts to dome, doing little to convince crude markets that producers have the will to cut production sufficiently to plug the massive supply/demand gap amid the prevailing lockdowns across many global economies.

The IMF forecast the world economy will see its sharpest contraction since the 1930s depression, which by now will not surprise many, while a study from the Harvard School of Public Health highlighted that the return to normal may be a long road, saying (of the US) that “intermittent distancing may be required into 2020 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment of vaccine becomes available.”

Lets flip back to Canadian dollar, which its outlook so far for USDCAD was negative however a close today above 1.3990 could form a morning star pattern which is a bullish sign suggesting a potential reversal of the asset.

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Elsewhere, the Dollar and Yen have posted moderate gains versus the Euro and most other currencies. EURUSD drifted to a low at 1.0923.. The pair remains rejected the 50-day SMA and the 61.8% retracement level set from the upleg at the end of MArch. The overall picture remains positive as long as it sustains a move above the confluence of 50% Fib. level and 20-day SMA, at 1.0891. Intraday however the asset is oversold, hene a consolidation or a correction might follow since the asset closed the hour outside Bollinger bands. Further decline could be triggered is the asset breaks the 1.0925 level (S1).

Additionally, the biggest movers have been AUDUSD, NZDUSD, AUDJPY and NZDJPY, which have all racked up losses of well over 1%. AUDUSD, after a run of 7 consecutive days highs, has printed a 2-day low at 0.6325, reaching the S3 of the day. The pair still remains up by over 15% from the 17-year low that was printed on March 19th. However, intraday it turned below all moving averages and crossed below Ichimoku cloud, with three black crows and momentum indicators negatively configured suggesting further bearish bias, we might see the asset extending its move further southwards.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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