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[HFblogNews]

Date : 4th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th May 2017.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Bund futures headed south in after hour trade yesterday and yields spiked in the wake of the FOMC announcement, which saw the Fed reiterating plans for gradual rate hikes. Asian stock markets were mostly down, the CSI managed to hang on to marginal gains however, and Japan remained closed for this week’s holidays. Metals dragged markets down as iron ore futures tumbled amid inventory concerns. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher though, pointing to opening gains, while the drop-in Bund futures late yesterday suggests opening losses on bond markets. Today’s calendar has services PMIs from the Eurozone and the U.K. as well as the Norges Bank decision. The U.K. also has lending data and the Eurozone retail sales numbers for March.

U.S. reports: revealed a solid round of April ISM-NMI figures that highlighted the upside risk for our 190k April payroll estimate, though we also saw a restrained round of April ADP figures after an outsized March gain. For sentiment, a 57.5 April reading sat just below the 16-month high of 57.6 in February, versus an interim 55.2 figure in March, while the ISM-adjusted measure similarly returned to the 18-month high of 56.5 from February, versus an interim 53.9 figure in March. For ADP, a 177k April rise slightly above expectations, though the March ADP surge was only modestly trimmed to 255k from 263k, leaving substantial room for “catch up” in Friday’s jobs data. The March payroll data may have been depressed by bad weather in the BLS survey week, and ADP figures aren’t impacted by weather disruptions as inactive workers generally remain on company’s payrolls, so the big net-rise for ADP over the March-April period suggests upside risk on Friday.

FOMC left policy unchanged with a 0.75% to 1.00% target band. The Fed’s statement acknowledged the slowing in Q1 growth but said it was “likely to be transitory.” There was no new information on the balance sheet. For more of the guts of the statement, the Fed added that the labor market continue to strengthen, even as the economy slowed. Household spending rose only modestly but the fundamentals underpinning the continued growth of consumption remained solid. Business fixed investment firmed. Meanwhile, annual inflation has been “running close to the Committee’s 2% longer-run objective,” said the Fed, which was a small but important shift from March where the Fed said “inflation was “moving close to the…2% target.” It looks like price pressures are even nearer the goal. Near term risks to the economic outlook remain in balance. The vote was a unanimous 9-0. The outcome is as was expected. The door was left wide open for a tightening in June if the data tracks the expected Q2 rebound.

Europe: EMU Q1 GDP growth came in at 0.5% q/q, while the annual rate fell back to 1.7% y/y from 1.8% y/y. There was no breakdown with the preliminary release but in any case, it is likely that the different timing of Easter this year has led to some distortions, as the services sector will have gotten a boost in April this year, rather than in March, while production will have been stronger without the holiday period in March this year compared to 2016. Hence it is widely expected to see the ECB removing its easing bias at the June meeting, when the updated set of staff forecasts are also due. The UK April construction PMI beat expectations in rising to a headline reading of 53.1. Residential construction and civil engineering activity drove the uptick in expansion in the sector. Both construction and the manufacturing PMI’s have beaten expectations, rebounding from a recent soft patch and showing once again that the UK economy is performing resiliently as the sharp end of the Brexit process draws closer. Attention will now fall on the services PMI release today, as this sector accounts for nearly 80% of the economy.

Main Macro Events Today

US Data – The March trade deficit is set to widen to -$44.5 bln from -$43.6 bln and Q1 productivity is seen flat down from 1.3% in Q4. Initial jobless claims may dip 10k to 247k for the week ended April 29, while March factory goods are expected to be at 0.4% vs 1.0%.

Canadian Trade balance and BoC Governor Speech – The March trade report is projected to show a trimming in the deficit to -C$0.8 bln from the -C$1.0 shortfall in February that ended the upbeat run of trade surpluses that lasted from November of 2016 to January of this year. Also, BoC Governor Poloz delivers a speech in Mexico City to the CanCham Mexico and Club de industrials.

ECB’s Draghi Speech – There is plenty of ECB speak from Lautenschlaeger, Praet and Draghi among others, but comments are likely to focus on Draghi’s main message from last Thursday, namely that nothing has changed so far.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 5th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th May 2017.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south as oil dropped below USD 45 per barrel for the first time since November last year. Chinese equities meanwhile continued to decline amid ongoing efforts by regulators to curb leverage and speculation. Japan and South Korea remained closed for holiday and investors are looking ahead to today’s U.S. jobs report. With a pretty empty data calendar in Europe, the latter will remain in focus and it remains to be seen whether Eurozone markets, which already “celebrated” Macron’s clear lead in the polls ahead of Sunday’s presidential election yesterday, can push things further today, or whether caution returns, especially ahead of the U.S. numbers. Bund futures, which sold off sharply yesterday, moved sideways in after hour trade and FTSE 100 and U.S. stock futures are heading south and after the DAX reached new all time highs yesterday there may be some profit taking.

U.S. reports: revealed a better than expected round of March trade figures but downside surprises for the nondurable data in the March factory goods report that trimmed our Q1 GDP estimate back to the 0.7% advance figure despite firm equipment readings, with an $8 bln downward inventory revision that offsets an expected $8 bln construction boost. We also saw a tight round of initial claims figures at the close of April that added to the upside risk for 185k April nonfarm payroll estimate in tomorrow’s jobs report. The Q1 productivity figures revealed the expected 0.6% Q1 drop after a Q4 boost to 1.8% from 1.3%, while the weekly Bloomberg consumer comfort index rose to a 50.9 figure that sits just below the 51.3 cycle-high from mid-March. All the data support the narrative that the Q1 growth figures were depressed by seasonal weakness that will be sharply reversed in Q2 and Q3.

U.S. House “narrowly passed” the healthcare reform bill that aims to replace ACA with a new program, though the final shape of the package will be determined by the Senate, which just signed off on the temporary government funding bill through September. U.S. Senate has passed the $1.1 tln spending bill to fund the government through the rest of the fiscal year. The vote was 79-18. It has been passed on to the president for his signature which will finalize the legislation (the current CR expires Friday). He sign it, even though it doesn’t include many of his campaign priorities, including funding the border wall. It also doesn’t include the proposed $18 bln in spending cuts for healthcare, the environment, and other programs. But, it provides some $21 bln of the requested $30 bln in additional military funding.

Main Macro Events Today

US Employment – April employment data is out today and expected at 185k headline that exceeds the 98k headline and March but falls short of February’s 219k bounce.

Canada Employment – Employment is expected to rise 20.0k in April after the 19.4k gain in March. The risk remains for a pull-back in jobs given the robust gains in total jobs that stretch back to August with only one interruption. The Ivey PMI for April is due today as well.

Fedspeak – Fedspeak resumes today with speeches from Chair Yellen, her Vice Chair Fischer and SF Fed’s Williams. Chicago’s Evans, Boston’s Rosengren and St. Louis’ Bullard will take part in a panel discussion. Yellen is slated to speak on “125 Years of Women’s Participation in the Economy” at 13:30 ET.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 8th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th May 2017.



FX News Today

Global growth has become less of a worry, even though there are still plenty of challenges ahead. The solid U.S. April jobs report supports the view that Q1 weakness was transitory. And it adds to the growing body of evidence that shows the smaller Eurozone economies are catching up to Germany’s drive such that the expansion is deepening and broadening. The U.K. has been surprisingly resilient to Brexit fallout. And though Asia is more of a question mark with some slowing in China and still weak consumption in Japan, the region looks to remain rather robust.

United States: The U.S. employment report went a long way toward restoring confidence in the expansion, and even hinted that the Trump bump and rise in producer sentiment might be working their way into the real sector given the broad-based nature of the gains. There are a couple of important indicators due out this week, including CPI and retail sales, though neither are likely to materially change the view that the weakness in Q1 was temporary. Along with data, the $62 bln May refunding is on tap. Some concessions were made into the weekend, but the offerings could prove difficult amid rising risk appetite. Earnings reports will remain a factor too, but the calendar is considerably lighter this week as the season dies down. Other data reports out this week include the April NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Tuesday), which has improved significantly since the Trump election. JOLTS job openings for March (Tuesday) will give the markets another angle on the labor market. Then trade prices (Wednesday) will provide another view on inflation parameters. The April Treasury budget (Wednesday) will give a more complete view on the important tax season inflows and outflows. PPI for April (Thursday) will highlight inflation developments from the producer side.

Canada: The Canadian calendar has a limited amount of economic data and nothing from the Bank of Canada this week. Housing starts (Monday) are expected to moderate to a still elevated 220.0k pace in April from the 253.7k pace in March. Building permit values (Tuesday) are projected to expand 5.0% m/m in March after the 2.5% drop in February. The March new home price index (Thursday) is seen rising 0.3% m/m in March after the 0.4% gain in February. The next event on the BoC calendar is the policy announcement (May 24), which no change to the current 0.50% rate setting expected alongside a still cautiously constructive outlook for growth and inflation that maintains our ongoing view that no change in rates will prevail through year end.

Europe: With markets digesting the French election, German manufacturing orders for March (Monday) may attract less attention than usual at least if there is no major negative surprise in the wings. The German orders data will be the most forward looking of this week’s data round, which otherwise focuses mostly on Q1. German industrial production (Tuesday) is expected to have corrected -0.4% m/m in March, after expanding strongly in February, while French production should rebound from the drop-in February and rise 1.0% m/m. This should leave the Eurozone number up 0.4% m/m. German trade data for March will complete the German Q1 cycle ahead of the preliminary GDP release (Friday). After the robust Eurozone release, the German growth number is expected to come in at 0.6% q/q, up from 0.4% q/q in Q4 last year.

UK: The stellar set of April PMI surveys of last week showed that the UK economy remains resilient in the face of Brexit uncertainties. The UK calendar this week includes the May BoE MPC meeting and publication of the central bank’s latest quarterly Inflation Report (Thursday). No change to prevailing policy settings is widely anticipated, while the recent signs of accelerating economic activity after a relative soft patch in Q1, along with robust global growth, should feature in both the policy meeting’s minutes and the inflation report narrative. Data include the April BRC retail sales report (Tuesday), where expected to rise by 0.4% y/y after the -1.0% figure in the month prior. The late timing of Easter this year has messed with seasonal adjustments somewhat, so markets will be looking at the underlying three-month figure for better clarity. Industrial production data for March are also up (Thursday), which expected to be improved to a -0.4% m/m figure after -0.7% in February. Trade data will be released at the same time.

Japan: In Japan, April consumer confidence (Monday) should slip back to 43.5 from 43.9, while the March current account surplus (Thursday) is expected to narrow to JPY 2,400 bln from 2,813.6 bln. April bank loan figures are also due Thursday.

Australia: Calendar has retail sales (Tuesday), expected to improve 0.1% m/m in March after the 0.1% dip in February. Building approvals (Monday) are seen falling 4.0% in March following the 8.3% bounce in February. ANZ job ads for April are also due (Monday). There is nothing on the docket from the Reserve Bank of Australia this week.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting (Thursday).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 9th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th May 2017.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets outside of Hong Long slipped after yesterday’s rally, which saw Japan’s Topix rising to the highest level since December 2015. The Nikkei is little changed on the day and Chinese stocks fluctuated. Weak retail sales data from Australia weighed on forex and equity markets and investors are taking stock while waiting for a catalyst before making further headway. In Europe FTSE 100 futures are moving higher, despite a stronger Pound ahead of the BoE meeting and as PM May is heading for a convincing victory in the June election. The DAX may have risen above 12700 for the first time ever last Friday, but is struggling to keep that level amid bouts of profit taking as the Macron rally peters out and the focus turns to ECB tapering. Mersch yesterday all but confirmed that the ECB will change its forward guidance in June and tapering announcements are now being expected for September. With that in mind Eurozone spreads are likely to remain volatile, as markets try to assess what the withdrawal of the ECB’s support measures means for peripherals. Today’s calendar has Italian retail sales data. Already released U.K. BRC retail sales were much stronger than anticipated, but March/April are likely to have been impacted by the different timing of Easter this year.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Mester discussed yesterday the economic outlook before the Chicago Council of Global Affairs. As she stated, she wants rate action taken before the Fed’s goals are met as she’s worried about falling behind the curve, according to her prepared remarks on the economic outlook. It’s important for the FOMC to remain “very vigilant against falling behind.” If price pressures become excessive as the labor market becomes unsustainably tight, policymakers may have to “move rates up steeply,” and that could risk recession. And she believes the Fed has achieved its maximum employment goal. She would also like the Fed to start normalizing its balance sheet this year. She is a hawk, but doesn’t vote this year. Fed’s Bullard on the other hand, believes the current rate setting is appropriate, according to a speech on the natural rate at an Atlanta Fed conference. He stated that the “natural rate of interest, and hence the appropriate policy rate, is low and unlikely to change very much over the forecast horizon.” And he added the U.S. seems to be in a low-growth state, though “a case could be made that some recent observations have been more consistent with the high-growth state.” Bullard is not a voter this year.

Germany: posted a sa trade surplus of 19.6 bln in March, down from EUR 21.2 bln in the previous month. Exports dropped 0.4% m/m , while imports surged 2.4% m/m, the latter after falling -1.6% m/m in February. March data brought the total for the first quarter of the year to EUR 59.7 bln, down from EUR 60.0 bln in the previous quarter. These are nominal numbers, that do not account for fluctuations in exchange rates and oil prices. And with import prices picking up that suggests real data will look somewhat better. Overall though net exports actually detracted from overall growth last year, and are still pretty subdued. The current account surplus widened in March, and rose 1.2% y/y in Q1, thus adding further ammunition to the critics of Germany’s large surplus.

Main Macro Events Today

US NFIB & JOLTS – Today, the April NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is out, which has improved significantly since the Trump election. Also, we will see JOLTS job openings for March will give the markets another angle on the labor market.

Canadian Building Permit – Building permit values are projected to expand 5.0% m/m in March after the 2.5% drop in February. Looking back, the 2.5% decline in building permit values in February came after a revised 5.8% gain in January (was +5.4%).

Fedspeak – St Louis Fed’s Bullard will be on a panel discussing interest rates today. The dove Kashkari will speak at a high-tech conference. Rosengren speaks at an NYU conference on risk management. Kaplan will speak at an interest rate summit.

AU Budget Report – Australia’s calendar has Annual Budget Release today.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 10th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th May 2017.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved higher, led by shares in Hong Kong, which rose to a 21 month high led by financials. Strong leads from the U.S. underpinned markets, although elsewhere gains were more muted and U.S. and FTSE 100 futures are heading south, indicating a correction from yesterday’s surge higher that saw the DAX climbing further above the 12700 mark and the FTSE 100 closing above 7300. European yields moved higher yesterday as investors flocked into stocks, with the Bund still outperforming Gilts, as Eurozone markets price in tapering and rate steps amid strong growth indicators and receding political risks. Mersch all but confirmed the expected change in guidance on Monday and Draghi will have a further chance to clarify the central bank’s stance at his speech to Dutch lawmakers today. In the U.K. the BoE starts its two day meeting, with expectations for an unchanged policy stance. The European data calendar has production data out of Italy and France as well as Norwegian inflation numbers and French trade.

FX Update: The dollar has traded modestly lower so far today, which some market narratives link with Trump’s firing of FBI Director Comey. USDJPY settled back under 114.00 after clocking a two-month peak at 114.33 yesterday. The high caps an impressive winning streak, with the pair having climbed in every session bar three over the last three weeks as it lifted out of the 108.12 six-month low posted on April 17. EURUSD settled in the upper 1.08s after logging a 12-day low yesterday at 1.0863. The narrow USD index is down by 0.2%, correcting some after logging a 19-day high yesterday. Oil prices have continued to see relatively steady price action, near $46.0 in the case of the WTI future, while most Asian stock markets have gained today following a flat session on Wall Street yesterday.

US reports: report revealed divergent surprises, with a disappointing flat figure for March wholesale sales after a 0.7% February increase, but a 0.2% inventory rise that beat the 0.1% drop in the advance indicators report, after a 0.3% February rise. Sales undershot inventories after beating inventories for three consecutive months, hence slowing the downtrend in the inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio to leave a 1.28 ratio for a third consecutive month. Now a Q1 GDP growth boost expected to 0.9% from 0.7%, with a $7 bln boost in wholesale inventories that accompanies an $8 bln downward factory inventory revision, U.S. JOLTS showed March job openings rose 61k to 5,743k from a downwardly revised 5,682k (was 5,743k). But the job openings rate was steady at a solid 3.8%. Hirings rebounded 11k to 5,260, also from a downward revision to 5,249k (was 5,314k). The rate was flat at 3.6%. Quitters, a favorite stat of Chair Yellen, increased 80k to 3,116k from 3,036k, with the rate holding at 2.1%. Data aren’t new and will be taken in stride, though they continue to show a tight labor market.

Fedspeak: Fed hawk Rosengren warned that the jobless rate at 4.4% is below “natural full employment” estimates at 4.7% and a further drop below 4.0% “would likely be accompanied by higher inflation, overheating the economy and prompting higher rates.” Also, balance sheet shrinkage shouldn’t be disruptive, said the non-voting Fed president, in post speech Q&A. The market can absorb balance sheet shrinkage, if it’s done gradually. It should be highly tapered, and part of the intent is to let mortgage rates rise. The Fed is still discussing its portfolio strategy, it’s still pretty “speculative,” he admitted, but he hopes to normalize the balance sheet will begin relatively soon, repeating recent comments. He also said the Fed is likely to hit zero rates again in future recessions.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Speech – ECB President Draghi speaks at the Dutch House of Representatives, in Netherlands, about the impact of Monetary policy.

US Imports and Exports & Budget Statement – April trade price data is out today and expected at 0.1% increase for exports with a matching 0.1% increase for imports. This would follow March data which had exports up 0.2% and imports down 0.2%. Oil prices rebounded in April after a dip in March which should help support the data. Also, April’s Treasury budget is out and will give a more complete view on the important tax season inflows and outflows.

RBNZ Rate Statement & Press Conference – Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting. No change in the 1.75% rate setting is anticipated, along with a statement that is consistent with steady rates through year-end.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 11th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th May 2017.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian markets managed modest gains as higher oil prices underpinned energy producers and indices near multi-year highs. Mainland China underperformed once again amid official efforts to curb leverage. New Zeeland benchmarks meanwhile led the move higher after the central bank said it will keep rates at record lows for an extended period of time. U.S. futures are heading south but FTSE 100 futures are moving higher after already outperforming yesterday ahead of today’s BoE announcement. Expectations are for a steady policy decision, leaving the minutes and the inflation report in focus. In the Eurozone, Draghi managed to bring some calm into spreads, as he signaled that the forward guidance may be changed in June, but that real tapering is still a way off and won’t start before next year. The calendar today also has U.K. production data as well as inflation numbers out of Switzerland and Sweden, the ECB’s latest economic bulletin and the EU Commission’s updated set of forecasts.

ECB Outlook: Risk to price stability is “by and large gone” as President Draghi stated.He added that the forward guidance was meant to address tail risk and that some tail risks are less and less probable. The clearest sign yet from the ECB President that the easing bias will be scrapped in June and Bund futures are coming off intraday highs on the comments. With the risk of the French election out of the way the ECB is firmly on course to tweak the forward guidance in June, with Draghi following up Mersch’s comments from Monday, which show the central bank moving towards a more balanced view on growth and inflation and laying the ground for dropping the easing bias, that is still in place and adopting a neutral stance. The QE schedule for this year, which has already been announced, will remain in place and real tapering won’t start before 2018 and will be announced in September at the earliest. The key issue then for June is whether the statement tweaks the guidance in a way that would allow to lift the deposit rate out of negative territory even before asset purchases have been phased out. Given recent comments that seems increasingly likely, although it may not yet be announced in June, as Draghi and Co will be eager to move very gradual on policy normalization amid concerns that it could put undue pressure on peripherals.

RBNZ Rate Statement: RBNZ held rates steady at 1.75%, as expected. The statement by Governor Wheeler was similar to March, which was similar to February. Measured optimism remains in place, but with a recognition of ongoing uncertainties. Notably, Wheeler said developments since the February Monetary Policy Statement on balance are considered to be neutral for the stance of monetary policy. And a dovish bias was retained, as the Governor concluded that “Numerous uncertainties remain, and policy may need to adjust accordingly.” In March he said “Numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect to the international outlook, and policy will need to adjust accordingly.” But with “numerous uncertainties” remaining, is possible that an easing bias will remain in place at the RBNZ. But absent any downside surprises, the Bank should hold steady through year end.

Main Macro Events Today

BOE Rate Decision & Monetary Policy – No change to prevailing policy settings is widely anticipated. This will leave the focus on the minutes and the latest inflation report, which will likely feature the recent signs of accelerating economic activity after a relative soft patch in Q1, along with robust global growth.

UK Production Data – Industrial production data for March are also up today, which expected to improve to a -0.4% m/m figure after -0.7% in February. Trade data will be released at the same time.

US PPI & Unemployment Claims – PPI for April will highlight inflation developments from the producer side, and it is forecasted with gains of 0.1% and 0.2% for the headline and core, following a 0.1% overall decline in March and an unchanged reading on the ex-food and energy component. Unemployment Claims expected at 245K from 238K last week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 12th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th May 2017.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian markets were mixed overnight. Shares in Japan declined from a 17-month high amid a wealth of earnings reports today. Electronics and auto makers were under pressure as the Yen held gains and markets are taking stock after the recent rally. The Nikkei is down -0.54%, the Hang Seng managed a marginal 0.9% gain as stocks mainland markets moved higher, and the CSI 300 gained 0.63%, while the ASX was down -0.71%. U.S. futures are also heading south, while the FTSE 100 future is little changed. Yesterday’s BoE report may have hinted that markets are underestimating the BoE’s willingness to tighten policy, but with investors focusing on warnings of challenges for households and not buying into the assumption of a smooth Brexit Sterling declined and yields slipped while the FTSE 100 managed to outperform Eurozone markets. Today’s calendar has German GDP and inflation data at the start of the session as well as EMU production data.

U.S. reports: revealed a hot round of April PPI gains after yesterday’s firm trade price data and a surprisingly low 236k initial claims figure at the start of May that further solidifies Fed tightening expectations for June. For PPI, the expected big 0.5% goods price rise accompanied a solid 0.4% service price increase to leave a pop in the y/y rise to 2.5%, though gasoline price declines in early May should allow a 0.2% headline drop this month that leaves a drop-back in the y/y climb to a still-firm 2.1%. Claims tightness signals upside risk for our 195k May payroll estimate, alongside upside risk from firm consumer, producer, and small business confidence, a solid 237k average monthly ADP rise thus far in 2017, and a likely vehicle sales and assembly bounce in Q2 that accompanies a GDP growth bounce to 3.2%, after weak Q1 performances for both.

The BoE did the expected and kept policy unchanged, leaving the repo rate at 0.25% and QE totals unaltered (GBP 435 bln for government bond purchases, GBP 10 bln for corporate bonds). As last time, one member voted for an immediate hike in Bank Rate, and the updated Inflation Report noted that for some it would take relatively little further upside news on the prospects for activity or inflation to vote for a hike. Its 2017 growth forecast was trimmed to 1.9% from 2.0%, though the central bank’s projections for 2018 and 2019 were both upwardly nudged by 0.1 of a percentage point. At the same time the bank noted that the centrals scenarios of the May inflation report suggest that monetary policy could need to be tightened by a somewhat greater extent over the forecast period than the very gently rising path implied by the market yield curve. However, the underlying assumption is a smooth Brexit transition to the new trading arrangements with the EU and that is a big if markets obviously disagree with. Markets though focused on the downside risks and didn’t buy into the assumption of a smooth Brexit transition so Sterling dropped and Gilt futures recovered losses on the back of the report.

Germany: Q1 GDP growth accelerated to 0.6% q/q in the first quarter of the year, from 0.4% q/q in Q4 last year and in line with expectations. The stats office reported that both domestic and external demand underpinned the quarterly growth rate and highlighted in particular that investment growth strengthened. Consumption growth was modest meanwhile and net exports improved. The annual rate rose 2.9% y/y. German Apr HICP confirmed at 2.0% y/y. The acceleration from just 1.5% y/y in March, was largely explained by the Easter effect, which lifted holiday related prices in April this year, rather than March as in 2016. All in all, pretty much as expected and confirming that the German recovery remains on track.

Main Macro Events Today

US CPI – April CPI is projected to rebound 0.2% for both the headline and the core, following respective declines of 0.3% and 0.1% in March. Weakness in energy prices was a major reason for the March declines and that should turn around for the April data.

US Retail Sales – Retail sales are seen bouncing 0.5% after dropping 0.3% in March, while the ex-auto figure should rise 0.4% after the 0.2% gain previously.

Fedspeak – FOMC Member Evans goes to Dublin to speak on economic conditions and monetary policy, while Harker speaks at Drexel University.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 13th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th May 2017.



FX News Today

It was a swing and a miss on U.S. CPI Friday, following Thursday’s below forecast PPI report. Headline retail sales also undershot estimates, though upward revisions to February and March improved the complexion of that report. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment continued to beat expectations to extend the gap between “soft” and “hard” data. The data resulted in modest lessening in the risk of a Fed tightening next month, though the probability is still over 70%. Yet, the chances for another hike in September were trimmed to about 40% from around 50-50 previously.

United States: Despite the weakness in some of the recent U.S. reports, data are still consistent with a rebound in Q2 GDP after a sluggish 0.7% clip for Q1, and upcoming reports on manufacturing, production, and housing should burnish that relatively bullish outlook. Specifically, the economic calendar is a fairly limited this week with a smattering of housing, production, Philly Fed, claims and LEI data on tap. The Empire State index is forecast to rebound (Monday) to 9.0 in May from 5.2 in April. Housing starts should increase to a 1,260k pace in April from 1,215 in March (Tuesday), though risk is downward as construction employment slips in May. Industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% (Tuesday) in April from 0.5% in March, while capacity utilization may increase to 76.3% from 76.1%. MBA mortgage applications (Wednesday) will have to account for the swings in yields between the uptick in PPI and slump in CPI the week prior, while EIA energy inventories are on tap as well. Data rounds out (Thursday) with a rash release, including the Philly Fed index seen slipping to 20.0 for May from 22.0. Initial jobless claims may rebound 5k to 241k for the May 13 week and leading indicators are forecast to rise 0.2% in April vs 0.4% in March.

Canada: In Canada, the end of the week brings March retail sales (Friday) and April CPI (Friday). The lead up to those key releases is rather less exciting, with a choppy calendar that has March manufacturing (Wednesday) and April existing home sales (Monday). Total CPI expected to rise 0.5% in April, driven by the run-up in gasoline prices, after the 0.2% gain (m/m, nsa) in March. The CPI is expected to accelerate to a 1.8% growth rate in April on an annual comparable basis from the 1.6% y/y pace in March. Retail sales are expected to bounce 1.0% m/m in March after the 0.6% drop in February. The ex-autos aggregate is seen improving 0.7% on the heels of the 0.1% dip in February. Manufacturing shipments are projected to recover 1.0% m/m in March after the 0.2% decline in February. The international transactions in securities for March will be released Thursday. The Bank of Canada is silent this week. Next week sees the rate announcement (May 24), which is expected to result in no change to the current 0.50% rate setting or the cautiously constructive outlook on growth and inflation that backs our projection for no change in rates through year-end.

Europe: Political risk has receded with Macron’s election victory, and while this is unlikely to be the last challenge to the unity of the Eurozone or the EU, it paves the way for Draghi to move to a neutral stance on rates at the June meeting. ECB speak from Draghi (Thursday), Constancio, Praet and others will likely confirm this, but also stress once again that the Eurozone still needs substantial monetary support and the current QE schedule will be implemented as planned. The data highlight this week is German ZEW Investor Confidence (Tuesday), which is seen increasing to 21.0 from 19.5 reflecting reduced political uncertainty, improving growth and rising stock markets. Other data are mainly backward-looking. Eurozone Q1 GDP (Tuesday) is expected to be confirmed at 0.5% q/q and 1.7% y/y, in line with the preliminary number. March trade data (also Tuesday), will add background information amid the lack of a full breakdown. Meanwhile final April EMU HICP (Wednesday) should confirm the headline rate at 1.9% y/y and core at 1.2% y/y. The data calendar also includes Eurozone current account and balance of payment numbers for March, as well as German producer price inflation for April. Supply comes from Germany, which will issue 30 year Bunds on Wednesday. Spain and France follow with bond auctions on Thursday.

UK: The calendar is highlighted by April inflation data (Tuesday), labor market figures covering March and April (Wednesday), and the official retail sales report for April (Thursday). CPI expected to spike to a new cycle high of 2.6% y/y from the 2.3% print seen in the month prior. The 15%-odd y/y decline in sterling and the approximate 10% gain in the y/y oil price comparison underpins this forecast. The BoE last week in its quarterly inflation report said that CPI should come back down to its 2.0% target over the next year, and highlighted the disinflationary effects of recent currency gains. As for the labour data, the March ILO unemployment rate anticipated to remain unchanged at 4.7%. In-line data shouldn’t have too much impact on sterling.

Japan: Japan’s docket kicks off on Monday with April PPI, which expected to rise to 1.6% y/y from 1.4% previously. The March tertiary industry index (Tuesday) should fall 0.1% m/m versus the 0.2% increase in February. Revised March industrial production is also due Tuesday. March machine orders (Wednesday) are penciled in at up 5.0% m/m versus the 1.5% rise seen previously. Preliminary Q1 GDP (Thursday) should rise 1.6% q/q as compared to the 1.2% increase in Q4.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is headlined by the employment report (Thursday), expected to reveal a 15.0k job gain in April after the 60.9k surge in March. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.9%, matching the 5.9% in March. The wage price index for Q1 (Wednesday) is projected to expand 0.4% in Q1 (q/q, sa) after the 0.5% rise in Q4. That would leave the annual growth rate at 1.8% versus the 1.9% pace in Q4 and Q3 that were the slowest since the great recession. The measure peaked at a 4.3% y/y growth rate in Q2 of 2008.The minutes to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s May meeting will be released on Tuesday.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has both Q1 PPI input and Q1 PPI output will be released on Tuesday. There is nothing from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this week. Last week saw the Bank hold rates steady at 1.75%, as expected, but leave a dovish tone in place amid the “numerous uncertainties” that remain. A somewhat more balanced outlook was anticipated from the Bank.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 16th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th May 2017.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Global stock markets continue to eye record highs, S&P 500,, Nasdaq, DAX, FTSE 100, Korea’s Kospi and Tawain’s Tatex as well as the MSCI World Index all reached record highs this week and Japan’s Topix is also higher on the day and eyeing the 20000 mark. The DAX, which managed to close above 12800 could open slightly down, while FTSE 100 futures are moving higher, while U.S. futures are moving sideways. The move higher is slowed by bouts of profit taking, but France’s election result and confidence that central banks will continue to keep an eye on markets and step in if necessary seems to be underpinning global stock market confidence for now. Against that background core yields are moving higher and for now at least improved sentiment is keeping Eurozone spreads narrow, even if the ECB is heading for a change in the forward guidance. German ZEW investor confidence today is expected to have improved again and the calendar also includes inflation data from the U.K. as well as the second reading of Eurozone Q1 GDP and.

FX Update: The euro has continued to drift upward, with EURUSD logging a nine-day high at 1.0987 just ahead of the London interbank open and EURJPY clocking a fresh one-year peak just shy of the 125.00 level. A combo of a risk-on backdrop and a sizable reduction in existential political risks in the Eurozone, post French election, now that last week’s “on-the-fact” profit taking phase has come and gone, have been both weighing on the yen and underpinning the euro. Last week’s sub-forecast U.S inflation data has also been in the mix, denting appetite for long dollar positions. EURGBP is trading in three-week high terrain, while Cable has nestled slightly above 1.2900. with the market looking to be lacking the impetus for a challenge of last week’s seven-month peak at 1.2990. USDCAD has remained heavy following the strong rally in oil prices yesterday. The pair is presently in the low 1.36s, just above yesterday’s 18-day low at 1.3601.

U.S. reports: The Empire State headline fell to a 7-month low of -1.0 from 5.2 in April, 16.4 in March, and a 29-month high of 18.7 in February. The ISM-adjusted Empire State fell to a 4-month low of 52.2 from a 6-year high of 55.2 in both March and April, and 54.5 in February. The May headline drop reflected declines in every component, after big April drops for orders and the workweek, as the sentiment indexes continue to give back some of their early-2017 premium, as also underway with consumer confidence and small business optimism. Strength has been contained to the goods sector given restraint in payrolls, retail sales and GDP as the economy faces a weak global economy, a strong dollar, and a pattern of seasonal Q1 weakness.

France’s Macron picks centre-right Prime Minister. The newly inaugurated French President Macron picked Republican Party’s Edouard Philippe as his Prime Minister in a move that looks like an attempt to broaden his base ahead of the legislative elections in June. Philippe has been the mayor of Le Havre since 2010 and the two will need a majority or at least enough seats in parliament to form a coalition to push through his reform agenda. The economy is looking in better shape than a long time, but the reform backlog means unemployment remains high and France is also struggling to cope with a deficit that continues to exceed the 3% limit.

Main Macro Events Today

German ZEW – Improvement in German ZEW Investor confidence is expected today to 21.0 in May from 19.5 in April – reflecting reduced political uncertainty, improving growth and rising stock markets. Forward looking indicators continue to underpin expectations for a broadening and strengthening of the recovery.

UK Inflation Data – CPI expected to spike to a new cycle high of 2.6% y/y from the 2.3% print seen in the month prior. The 15%-odd y/y decline in sterling and the approximate 10% gain in the y/y oil price comparison underpins this forecast.

EU GDP – Eurozone Q1 GDP is expected to be confirmed at 0.5% q/q and 1.7% y/y, in line with the preliminary number.

US Housing Starts & industrial production – Housing starts should increase to a 1,260k pace in April from 1,215 in March, though risk is downward as construction employment slips in May. Industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% in April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 17th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th May 2017.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south after a mixed closed on Wall Street. “Trump anxiety” is blamed for falling risk appetite, while a stronger Yen weighed on Japanese exporters. Chinese stocks trading in Hong Kong as railway and construction companies were under pressure following an infrastructure summit. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also under pressure, pointing to a correction in the FTSE 100, which outperformed yesterday with a 0.91% gain and a close above 7500. The DAX moved sideways at high levels amid bouts of profit taking but managed to close above 12800. Gilt futures recovered losses as safe haven demand picked up again and Bund futures, which closed marginally in the red moved higher in after hour trade, which against the pressure on stock markets points to early gains and a dip in yields. The European calendar has U.K. labour market data and the final reading of Eurozone inflation numbers for April.

FX Update: The dollar is trading softer against most currencies, particularly the yen with USDJPY dropping quite sharply, from levels above 113.50 yesterday to a 12-day low today in Tokyo at 112.34. The narrow USD index has fallen for fourth consecutive session, making its lowest levels since last November’s presidential election. EURUSD rose to a fresh six-month high of 1.1116. Concerns about the about the pro-Trump growth agenda have weighed on the dollar. First the Senate Majority Leader McConnell appeared to downplay aspects of the plans for revenue-neutral tax cuts, Dodd-Frank rollback, among other things, and later news erupted about an alleged existence of a potentially Trump-damaging memo written by ex-FBI director Comey. This rattled Wall Street and led to a mostly negative session across equity bourses in Asia, which in turn let to yen outperformance as market participants sought safe havens.

U.S. reports: revealed a robust industrial production report that left good news for the day on net, though we saw disappointing housing starts data with annual revisions that lowered the recent trajectory. For factories, we saw a 1.0% April industrial production surge with gains spread across the manufacturing, mining and utility components, and we expect a robust 6% headline growth clip in Q2 led by mining and utilities. For housing, we saw April drops of 2.6% for starts, 2.5% for permits, and 8.6% for completions.

UK April CPI came in perkier than expected in rising to a new cycle high of 2.7% y/y, the highest rate since 2013 and up from 2.3% y/y in March. The core CPI reading came at 2.4% y/y from 1.8% in the previous month. PPI input prices unwound some, dipping to 16.6% y/y from 17.4% y/y in March, itself downwardly revised from 17.9%. Cable has U-turned sharply lower, to a low so far of 1.2865, following a short-lived rally to 1.2958 seen at the prompt of a perkier than expected UK CPI. German ZEW investor confidence rose to 20.6, slightly below expectations, but still up from 19.5 in the previous month. Eurozone Q1 GDP growth was confirmed at 0.5% q/q, in line with the preliminary number and unchanged from Q4 last year. The outcome of the French Presidential election continues to underpin an improved assessment of global political risks, while a fresh rise in German ZEW investor confidence underpinned hopes of stronger growth ahead, even as Eurozone Q1 GDP numbers show a still uneven recovery. The fact that the ECB has signaled a very gradual move towards policy normalization meanwhile is helping to keep Eurozone spreads in. In the U.K. April inflation data came in higher than expected, but still fitted the BoE’s inflation outlook.

Main Macro Events Today

U.K. Labour Data – March ILO unemployment rate anticipated to remain unchanged at 4.7%. In-line data shouldn’t have too much impact on sterling. The Claimant Count Change expected to fall 7.5K from 25.5K last month.

EMU Final April HICP – The final April EMU HICP should confirm the headline rate at 1.9% y/y and core at 1.2% y/y. The pronounced up and down over the March/April period was impacted by the later timing of Easter.

EIA Inventories – EIA Crude Oil Stock Change is on tap as well and an improvement is expected at -2.283M from -5.247M last week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.