Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:31 am

Date : 23rd March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd March 2017.


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FX News Today

European Outlook: Global stock markets started to stabilise yesterday and this continued in Asia overnight, with the Nikkei managing a 0.23% gain at the close, while the ASX was up 0.41%. Gains are modest so far compared to the rout of recent days and investors remain cautious on Trump’s policies. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher, which should see bond futures correcting some of yesterday’s gains. FTSE 100 underperformed and Gilts outperformed yesterday after news of the London attack and seems to be bouncing back again. The calendar fills up today with French business confidence numbers, as well as German and Eurozone consumer confidence and U.K. retail sales data alongside the CBI distributive trade survey.

RBNZ held the policy rate at 1.75%, as expected. Low for long remains in place, with Wheeler saying “Monetary Policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.” But a dovish bias remain in place, as the Governor concluded that “Numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect to the international outlook, and policy will need to adjust accordingly. No change in rates is expected through to year end. USDNZD trades at 0.7050 from an overnight low of 0.7024.

US Data: The 3.7% U.S. existing home sales drop to a surprisingly weak 5.48 mln February clip trimmed the January pop to an unrevised 5.69 mln cycle-high from rates of 5.51 mln in December and a prior cycle-high 5.60 mln in November, as mild weather failed to visibly lift February sales. A 0.5% median price rise to $228,400 trimmed the seasonal downtrend from the $247,600 all-time high last June, while inventories rose 4.2% to a still-lean 1.75 mln. We assume a 3% sales rise in Q1 after a solid 13% rate in Q4 but a 7% contraction rate in Q3. Sales have adhered to an erratic uptrend since 2010. Existing home sales are on track for a 5% growth clip in 2017, following a 3.9% rise in 2016 and a 6.5% rise in 2015. We have cyclical increases of 59% for existing home sales and 39% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 106% for new home sales, 169% for housing starts, and 136% for permits.

EU must prepare for U.K. walking out of Brexit talks without a deal. Bloomberg reported that EU officials are calling on the bloc to prepare for the possibility of Brexit without a deal, citing a private memo and people familiar with the discussions. The official EU negotiator Barnier reportedly told a meeting of EU Commissioners that some Conservative politicians in the U.K. are already trying to undermine efforts to find common ground. May is set to trigger Article 50 and start official divorce talks on March 29 and a key stumbling block are likely to prove the final bill to cover the U.K. outstanding U.K. liabilities, as EU officials insist the U.K. “must settle the accounts” when it leaves, stressing that it won’t be asked “to pay a single euro for something they have not agreed to as a member”. Barnier stressed that that a failure to come to an agreement would have “serious consequences”, not just for citizens living in the EU, but also supply problems for companies, air-traffic disruption, tougher custom controls and no more circulating of nuclear material. U.K. officials meanwhile question the legality of the bill and May has repeatedly said that “no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain”.

Main Macro Events Today

FOMC Chair Yellen Speech – It’s unlikely she’ll try to alter the tone from last week’s FOMC result, where the Fed’s stance wasn’t as hawkish as the markets had expected. If she addresses policy, she will probably reiterate the gradual nature of the trajectory. Also on tap are the dovish dissenter Kashkari, who will discuss education and late in the day, the more hawkish voter Kaplan will speak on the economic outlook.

US New Home Sales – February new home sales data is out later and should reveal a 2.7% increase for the headline to a 570k (median 565k) pace following a 3.7% increase to a 555k pace in January. The NAHB composite for February declined to 65 from 67 and the MBA purchase index is down 4.6% for the month.

UK Retail Sales – Expectations are for a rise to 0.45 from a poor -0.35 in February and a rather dismal -2.1% report for January. The consumer has been keeping the UK economy ticking along despite of Brexit concerns – figure watched with keen interest for impacts on sterling.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

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Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Fri Mar 24, 2017 4:26 am

Date : 24th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th March 2017.


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FX News Today

European Outlook: Key Asian stock markets moved higher despite the delay of Trump’s health care bill was delayed, which will now face an uncertain vote today. With the Dollar advancing and the Yen falling back the Nikkei managed a 0.9% gain, and the ASX closed up 0.8%, but the Hang Seng is in negative territory, The Shanghai composite is little changed and Taiwan’s index was down together with the Kopsi while Southeast Asian benchmarks were mixed. U.S. markets closed in the red yesterday, while European markets managed a late rally, and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher as investors await the final vote. In Europe, the calendar has preliminary Eurozone PMI readings for March, the U.K. has BBA mortgage approvals and EU leaders (minus U.K. PM May) will gather for a summit to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Rome Treaties.

House delayed yesterday’s planned vote the healthcare bill, possibly until next week, according to news reports. Leadership has told members to be available today, however, in case a vote can be slated. Wall Street closed with modest losses, having unwound early gains as the prospects for the bills passage today dimmed through the day. The stock market is likely to remain in wait and see mode today, rather than stage a major selloff, given the possibility for a vote over the weekend or next week. Ways and Means Chairman Brady said (in CNBC interview) no one has walked away yet.

U.S. reports revealed solid February new home sales despite weakness in Wednesday’s existing home sales report, alongside a 15k pop in initial claims to an elevated 258k in the BLS survey week after annual revisions that mostly lifted levels of claims since November, leaving a net negative signal for the day’s data overall. For new home sales, a 592k rate beat estimates, though mild weather failed to lift sales above the 622k cycle-high rate in July of 2016.

UK February retail sales smashed expectations, rising 1.7% m/m and by 3.7%, up on the respective median forecasts for 0.4% and 2.6% growth. A rebound had been expected following two consecutive months of sub-par sales, though the magnitude was even greater than foreseen. January data were revised lower, however, to -0.5% m/m from -0.3% m/m initially reported, and to 1.0% y/y growth from 1.5% y/y. The ONS stats office advices caution, highlighting that the underlying three-month view shows sale in decline as a consequence of the weakness in December and January. After the strong retail sales report, out of the UK, cable has lifted back above 1.2500, with the pound finding support on dips. Additionally, BoE MPC’s Broadbent that UK exporters are benefiting from a temporary sweet spot, with the pound weaker following the Brexit vote but with trading terms remaining unchanged and with global growth picking up.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone PMI – Eurozone Flash Manufacturing and Service PMI are out today and expected both to show a slight difference from February at 55.3 from 55.4 and 55.5 respectively.

UK Durable Goods – February durable goods expected to see orders up 1.1% compared to respective January figures which had orders up 2.0%.

Canadian CPI – The CPI is expected to rise 0.2% m/m in February after the 0.9% surge in January. On an annual comparable basis, CPI is stay unchanged to a 2.1%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Mon Mar 27, 2017 8:09 am

Date : 27th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th March 2017.


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FX News Today

Brexit comes into view now that the drama over the ACA was ended on Friday when the bill was canceled to avoid a “no” vote, as neither Trump nor Ryan could muster sufficient support. Triggering Article 50 on Brexit shouldn’t have any immediate consequences as this just kicks off the negotiation process. Meanwhile, investors will remain focused on the U.S. political process and investors will have to assess the possible damage from the ACA defeat, and whether it endangers the rest of the Trump agenda, or instead if it will allow the president to turn his full attention to tax reform, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus, policies that are more important to the markets.

United States: U.S. markets this week will try to assess the consequences of the ACA defeat and what it means for the future of the Trump agenda. Wall Street did manage to pare losses into Friday’s close after the ACA bill was pulled, rather than be put up to a certain “no” vote, as President Trump indicated he’d move on to tax reform, deregulation, and stimulus. As for data, housing and manufacturing reports dominate, but income, consumption and confidence numbers should be more market moving. The March Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index opens the week’s calendar (Monday). March consumer confidence (Tuesday) is expected to drop to 114.0 after the 3.2-point jump to a cycle high of 114.8 in February. The index has been on the rise since November. Also on tap Tuesday are the January Case-Shiller home price report and the Richmond Fed index. February pending home sales are due Wednesday. The third report on Q4 GDP (Thursday) should show a downward revision to a 1.8% pace from the 1.9% prior rate. February personal income (Friday) should post a 0.4% gain, with consumption edging up 0.2%, the same as in January. The Chicago PMI is also due (Friday.

Canada: Bank of Canada Governor Poloz (Tuesday) speaks on “Canada’s economic history,” which will be followed by a press conference. January GDP (Friday) is expected to expand 0.3% m/m after the 0.3% gain in December, as Canada’s economy maintains momentum. The industrial product price index (Thursday) is seen rising 0.1% m/m in February on the heels of the 0.4% bounce in January. The CFIB’s Business Barometer (Thursday) will provide a reading on the sentiment of small and medium sized firms in March.

Europe: Not much will be happening this week. The U.K. will officially notify EU officials, who in turn will acknowledge the request, before tasking negotiators with drafting guidelines, which then will have to be agreed upon by the remaining EU members before talks can officially start. With Easter coming up and the French election also on the agenda, and after already waiting 9 months, EU officials don’t seem inclined to rush anything now. The first Brexit summit is reportedly scheduled for a month after the U.K officially triggers Article 50, but the key phase could well only start in October, when the German election is also out of the way.This week’s pretty full calendar focuses on March confidence reading as well as preliminary March inflation data. After the surprisingly strong PMI readings and the improvement in preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence, an improvement in the German Ifo Business Climate index today is expected to 111.2 from 111.0 in the previous month. PMI readings suggest that the recovery is in the Eurozone is not just strengthening but broadening, hence ESI Economic Confidence (Wednesday) expected to rise to 108.2 from 108.0 in the previous month. We will see German HICP inflation on Thursday. This expected to leave overall Eurozone HICP (Friday) at 1.8% y/y down from 2.0% y/y in February. The calendar also has February retail sales data and import price inflation from Germany as well as French consumer spending and PPI data.

UK: This will be the week that the UK government will finally invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to formerly begin the provisional two-year negotiation period to agree on divorcing terms with the EU. The day will be Wednesday, March 29th. Things won’t happen quickly given the bureaucracy of the 27-member EU (excluding the UK), and, illustrating this, President of the EU Council, Tusk, said last week that members will hold a Brexit summit on April 29 (which is a week after the first round of the French presidential election). The calendar this week features the third estimate on Q4 GDP (Friday), expected to be reaffirmed at 0.7% q/q and 2.0% y/y growth. March data on consumer confidence (also Friday) and February lending figures from the BoE (Wednesday) are also due.

Japan: In Japan, the heavy data week will be important for the outlook as the fiscal year gets closer. Inflation, sales, and production numbers will be key. February services PPI (Monday) is expected to cool to 0.4% y/y from 0.5% y/y in January and December. February retail sales (Wednesday) are seen falling 1.5% after a 1.1% drop for larger retailers. That would be a 7th straight monthly decline. But, overall sales are projected rising 1.3% following the prior 1.0% gain. The remainder of releases are due Friday, starting with CPI. February housing starts and construction orders round out the calendar.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is sparse this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Deputy Governor Debelle speaks at the FX Week Australia conference (Thursday). Private sector credit for February is due Friday.

New Zealand: February building permits are a lone highlight, due Friday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meets on May 11.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:19 am

Date : 28th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th March 2017.


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FX News Today

European Outlook: Global stock markets started to stabilize yesterday and Asian markets bounced back with materials and financial companies leading the way. The ASX 200 is up 1.30% and the Nikkei nearly 1.0%, while the Hang Seng gained 0.51% as investors see positives in Trump’s healthcare bill failure and speculate that he might also not be able to pass measures that are restrictive to global trade. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher and Praet’s push back against musings on exit strategies and the role of the deposit rate, which effectively affirms the guidance on rates and the implicit easing bias, should help Eurozone markets. Against that background, Bund futures already started to fall into yesterday’s close and in after hour trade and are likely to shed some of Monday’s gains, while Praet’s comments should underpin peripherals. Today’s calendar is relatively quiet, with only Italian industrial sales and orders.

US: Yields were mixed on Monday in the aftermath of the ACA repeal shortfall sell-off on Wall Street, which righted itself after opening sharply lower with global stocks. Financials and infrastructure plays took an early hit in contrast to bond demand, but risk-off trades then found some equilibrium, leaving yields above lows. The Dallas Fed business activity index pulled back in March.

Fedspeak: Chicago Fed dove Evans: inflation looks well on the way to reaching its 2% objective, said the dovish voter from Madrid. He still worries that long-term inflation expectations, however, are running below that objective and that uncertainties remain high in the U.S. In fact, he warns that trend growth in the U.S. is going to remain lower than most would prefer and doesn’t expect core CPI to reach 2% until 2019. Overall this is about par for the course from the uber dove, who will no doubt still go along with a couple more hikes in 2017.

ECB’s Praet pushes back against deposit rate musings. In what sounds like a warning to other council members, including Nowotny who has speculated about the need to raise the deposit rate ahead of the end of asset purchases Praet said “any communication on the deposit facility rate is a signal on the monetary policy stance, and there should be no ambiguity on this”. He added that “you have to be very careful on the guidance that we have because all the signals that you may give on the short-term rates, will influence the whole risk free yield curve”. This might consider as a signal that the official guidance that rates are seen at current or lower levels well past the end of asset purchases remains in place.

BoE revs up stress tests ahead of Brexit. The Bank will subject the country’s biggest lenders to a stress test that assumes a deep economic slump and a sharp depreciation of the Pound as the bank prepares for the impact of the U.K.’s exit from the EU. The tests don’t name Brexit risks in particular in its 2017 health check scenarios, but it is clear that the uncertain impact of the U.K.’s withdrawal from the union is one of the factors the BoE will have in mind, as it warns that risks to financial stability will be influenced by the “orderliness” of that process.

Main Macro Events Today

US Consumer Confidence – March consumer confidence is expected to drop to 114.0 after the 3.2-point jump to a cycle high of 114.8 in February, and well above the prior high of 103.8 in January 2015.

Fedspeak – Fed Chair Yellen taking the spotlight today since she’ll be addressing the National Community Reinvestment Coalition’s annual conference and will speak on workforce development challenges in low income communities. The non-voting hawk George will give a keynote address on banking and the economy. Kaplan will hold a Q&A session. Governor Powell speaks on the history and structure of the Fed.

BoC – BoC Governor Poloz speaks today on “Canada’s economic history.” His speech will be followed by a press conference.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:12 am

Date : 29th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th March 2017.


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FX News Today

European Outlook: The rebound on global equity markets continued in Asia overnight, as a bounce in consumer confidence underpinned confidence in the U.S. economy and officials sounded more upbeat on tax reforms. Australia’s ASX led the way, while Japan trailed behind with a marginal gain, as the strong Yen undermines exporters and as more than 1.500 companies in the Topix traded without the right to their latest dividend. Oil prices extended their gain above USD 48 per barrel and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher as global equity markets are heading for their fifth straight month of gains. The European calendar as German import price inflation at the start of the session, as well as Italian confidence data and U.K. lending data. May’s official Brexit announcement will be topping the headlines, however, as European officials increasingly fret about the risk of a hard Brexit.

U.S. reports revealed encouraging advance trade deficit figures for February with mixed inventory data that lifted our Q1 GDP estimate to 1.6% from 1.5%, following an assumed trimming of Q4 growth to 1.8% from 1.9%. The U.S. “soft” data continue to soar past the “hard” figures however, given a remarkable March surge in consumer confidence to a 16-year high of 125.6 from a 116.1 (was 114.8) prior high in February, alongside a Richmond Fed pop to a 7-year high of 22.0 in March with an ISM-adjusted rise to a 7-year high of 59.2 that included gains in every component but vender lead-time. The advance data showed a narrowing in the February trade gap for goods to $64.8 bln that implies a February drop in the goods and services trade deficit to $45.0 bln from a 5-year high of $48.5 bln in January. For inventories, we saw 0.4% February gains for both wholesalers and retailers.

Fedspeak: First speaker yesterday was Fed’s Chair Yellen, who did not comment on monetary policy or the economy in her prepared comments on “Addressing Workforce Development Challenges in Low-Income Communities.” She did note that while the U.S. job market overall has “improved markedly,” there remain pockets of “persistently high” unemployment rates. Dallas Fed’s Kaplan on the other hand said yesterday that Fed should be taking steps to raise rates patiently and gradually, following comments overnight in which he discussed winding down the balance sheet, no systemic risk, and meeting the dual mandate. He doesn’t want to raise rates so aggressively that you “jolt the economy into a slowdown.” Another speaker was Fed VC Fischer in a CNBC interview, who said the Fed is watching political developments closely. The healthcare debate might change his internal calculus, but it won’t have much net impact on the FOMC. He thinks it’s sensible for the Committee to have a wait-and-see approach on fiscal policy for now. Last Fed’s speaker yesterday was Fed’s George who said that consumers are feeling more confident, in her keynote address on “The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy” at the conference, Banking and the Economy: A Forum for Women in Banking. She noted she is not sure what fiscal policy will mean for the economy, and is yet not ready to put any numbers into her forecasts.

BoC’s Poloz said yesterday that the focus on downside risks is appropriate given that the economy is running below equilibrium. He said upside risks would be great, but downside risk are problem. It is his job in the current situation of focus on downside risk. If the economy was in equilibrium, the Bank would be equally concerned about both upside and downside risks. But we are not, he said, we are below equilibrium, so the Bank worries more about downside risks in this situation. As for the recent data, he said it is “Odd to forget about all those downside risks just because a few data points came in better than expected. We’ve had better than expected data points in the past three years.”

Main Macro Events Today

Brexit Day – U.K. is finally ready to trigger Article 50 today, which will start the process to review a total of 20,833 laws and regulations that were in effect in the EU and Britain at the beginning of the year and that will now have to be reviewed or replaced. Environmental, health and consumer protection as well as legal acts on workers’ rights and standards for social welfare systems will also be under review and in theory that means more than 50 legislative texts each day to keep within the 2-year time frame.

Donald Tusk – The president of European Council is going to give a press statement on the UK notification.

Fedspeak – Fed’s Evans, the dovish voter, speaks on policy and the economy from Frankfurt. The non-voter Rosengren will address the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Boston. SF Fed’s Williams, a non-voter appears before the Forecasters Club of New York, and will discuss a sustained recovery.

US Pending Home Sales – February pending home sales are due today and expected at 2.1% from -2.8% last month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:50 am

Date : 30th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th March 2017.


Image

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mostly down led by a sell off in Chinese shares amid tightening money supply. The CSI 300 is down -0.80% and the Hang Seng down 0.88%. Japanese share also traded lower, as the Trump administration pushes ahead with its reform agenda, while the Fed contemplates the number of further cuts this year. The Yen weakened and crude managed to held on to yesterday’s gains and Australia’s ASX managed to dodge the trend with a 0.39% gain, while U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also moving higher. Global equity indices remain at very high levels, but despite gains on FTSE 100 and DAX yesterday Bund and Gilt futures moved higher and further signs that the ECB is far from ready to change its dovish guidance underpinned Bund futures in after hour trade, which should continue to cap yields this morning, despite the expected rise in ESI economic sentiment, which should be compensated to a certain extend by the expected decline in German HICP inflation.

U.K. finally triggers Article 50, by handing yesterday the official divorce letter to Tusk. May said she hoped for negotiations to be constructive and respective, while calling for a comprehensive free trade agreement including financial services, which for the EU will continue to look like an attempt to heave the cake and eat it. And with EU officials calculating that there will have to be around 50 legislative texts to be reviewed every day if the U.K. aims to stick to the 2-year time frame, this is not going to be a smooth ride. Battle lines are being drawn up now and while the U.K. aims for parallel talks for future arrangements alongside the key points of divorce, her counterparts want to settle the divorce modalities first. For now though nothing much will change as the U.K. remains part of the EU at the moment, although many companies have already started to adjust their plans. The first EU Brexit summit will be in a months’ time and with the German election coming up and more administrative hurdles to clear it will be some time before negotiations start in earnest.

U.S. reports: Pending home sales surged 5.5% to 112.3 in February, sharply beating forecasts, after falling 2.8% to106.4 in January. This is the highest since last April. But, on an annual basis, sales are down 2.4% y/y versus the 2.7% pace previously. Regionally, sales were higher in all four areas covered, paced by an 11.4% gain in the Midwest, while the South rose 4.3%. The Northeast increased 3.4% last month, with the West up 3.1%. The dollar edged a touch higher after the stronger pending home sales outcome. Additionally, WTI crude rallied to $49.62 from $48.60 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 900k bbl rise in crude stocks.

Fed’s Rosengren said he favors a hike at every other FOMC meeting in 2017, which would make 4 tightenings. Though once a dove, Rosengren turned rather hawkish last year. He is not a voter this year. He sees both Fed’s mandates being met this year. He expects continued continuity at the FOMC despite upcoming changes. Rosengren in Bloomberg interview: a faster pace of normalization should be considered he said. So far the FOMC has been very gradual in its tightening, and that should be the base case. And 4 hikes this year would still be a more gradual clip than in the last tightening cycle. Growth of 2.2% to 2.3% this year is a reasonable forecast. The economy is in a much better place now, and where the Fed wants it to be, but he doesn’t want policy to get behind the curve. Additionally, Fed’s Williams wouldn’t rule out more than 3 hikes this year, given upside risks, according to the text of his speech on From Sustained Recovery to Sustainable Growth: What a Difference Four Years Makes before the Forecasters Club of New York. On the other hand, Fed dove Evans said he backs 1 or 2 more tightenings this year, in comments on “The Times They Are A-Changin’,” at an International Capital Markets conference. There wasn’t anything new in his remarks, however. He believes weaker data this quarter is likely to be transitory.

Main Macro Events Today

EMU ESI – The ESI is expected to move higher, with our forecast for a rise to 108.2 from 108.0 coming with a risk to the upside after higher than expected PMIs and national surveys.

US GDP & Unemployment Claims – The third release on Q4 GDP is out on today and should reveal a 2.0% headline, revised from 1.9% in both of the first two releases. The Unemployment claims expected to fall to 244K from 261K reported last week.

German CPI – German HICP inflation expected to fall back to 2.0% y/y from 2.2%, while the Spanish rate, also due today, is expected to remain steady at 3.0%.

Fedspeak – The more hawkish Kaplan, a voter, will take Q&A at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s capital markets summit. SF Fed’s Williams, a non-voter will speak at a learning Community event. Mester, a non-voting hawk, speaks on improvement to the payments system. NY Fed’s Dudley discusses financial conditions and monetary policy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Fri Mar 31, 2017 8:30 am

Date : 31st March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st March 2017.


Image

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets mostly headed south in Asia overnight, with China’s CSI 300 outperforming, and managing a slight gain. The DAX managed to close slightly higher yesterday and the U.S. also consolidated modest gains, but the FTSE 100 closed down as Sterling strengthened and U.S. and UK. stock futures are also in the red after the losses on most Asian markets on the last trading day of the quarter. Markets continue to lack clear direction with corporate earnings and economic data underpinning optimism about the outlook for the second quarter, while politics remain a negative. The local calendar today as German jobless data, as well as Eurozone inflation data, with the latter expected to fall much more than originally expected, after German and Spanish numbers yesterday indicated that the later timing of Easter this year means prices for package holiday haven’t gone up yet, which is distorting the annual rate. The U.K. has house price data as well as the final reading of Q4 GDP. German retail sales and French consumer spending are also on the slate.

U.S. reports: revealed an upside surprise for GDP led by service consumption and a small 3k initial claims drop in the last week of March to 258k that largely sustained last week’s pop, leaving good news for the economy on net. For GDP, we still project 1.6% growth in Q1 before a stronger growth path in the 3%-area through Q2 and Q3. For claims, the path remains tight despite the rise over the past two weeks, and we would discount some volatility given this year’s late Easter, and the tight NSA claims readings of just 228k after a 225k BLS survey week reading, versus last year’s comparable readings of 231k and 236k in what was then the week of Good Friday.

Fed’s Kaplan reiterated 3 hikes is a good base case for this year. The hawkish Fed voter is participating in a Q&A session on monetary policy and the economy and at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, so the comments are rather wide ranging. He also said that rising confidence hasn’t translated into increased activity so far. The U.S.-Mexico relationship has led to a net increase in U.S. jobs. The weaker pound is helping act as a shock absorber for the U.K. economy. SF Fed’s Williams was mum on the economy and policy outlook in his prepared remarks as part of a panel discussion at a community event yesterday. Cleveland Fed hawk Mester supports further rate hikes, though not at each meeting, citing the sound U.S. economic expansion with the weak Q1 as largely transitory given residual seasonality in the data. She expects unemployment to remain below 5% for 2-years and reiterates her backing for beginning to trim bond holdings this year.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone HICP – Eurozone inflation is seen coming in below expectations and could fall to just around 1.8%, below the ECB’s definition of price stability as below but close to 2%.

UK GDP – Q4 GDP expected to be reaffirmed at 0.7% q/q and 2.0% y/y growth.
US Personal Income – February personal income should post a 0.4% gain, with consumption edging up 0.2%, the same as in January. The Chicago PMI surged to 56.5 in March versus February’s 57.4.

Canadian GDP – January GDP is expected to expand 0.3% m/m after the 0.3% gain in December.

Fedspeak – The dovish dissenter Kashkari will take Q&A at a banking conference. NY Fed’s Dudley will be in Bloomberg, while MPC Member Haldane Speaks is going to speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Mon Apr 03, 2017 8:46 am

Date : 3rd April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd April 2017.


Image

FX News Today

“Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered” goes the old trading adage. However, Wall Street and longer dated Treasuries are mostly net higher on the quarter, having weathered the Fed rate hike and some uncertainties over the Trump agenda after the ACA failure. Confidence remains high heading into April, as reflected recent sentiment surveys, the labor market continues to strengthen, and manufacturing is improving further. Data will be in full swing this week and will help formulate outlooks for Q2. In Europe, intrigue will continue swirl around the ECB’s exit strategy. The opening stance on Brexit between the UK and EU predictably focused on a “Hard Brexit” by the latter, though negotiations won’t be start in earnest until after German elections in September.

United States: The U.S. economic calendar features the March jobs report Friday, which has suddenly come upon us again after sealing the deal on the March FOMC hike last month. March nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 200k vs 235k in February, with a 225k private payroll gain. Looking at the rest of the week, Markit PMI for manufacturing in March is due (Monday), along with March ISM manufacturing seen slipping to 57.0 from 57.7 and February construction spending expected to rise 0.8% vs -1.0%. The February trade deficit (Tuesday) is forecast to narrow to -$46.7 bln from -$48.5 bln, while MBA mortgage market report is due (Wednesday), accompanied by the March ADP employment report, which should post a 238k gain for the month, below the February figure of 298k. EIA energy inventories are also on tap. Initial jobless claims may retreat 14k to 244k (Thursday) for the April 1 week. In addition to the jobs report (Friday) will be the wholesale trade report and February consumer credit, expected to rebound to $18 bln vs $8.8 bln. FOMC minutes are due Wednesday from the FOMC’s March 14, 15 meeting that included the first rate hike of 2017. But the Fed also surprised with a less hawkish stance than was feared by the markets, especially with respect to the dot plot where the median estimate called for only two more tightenings in 2017, for a total of three.

Canada: A busy week begins with the BoC’s Outlook Survey (Monday), which expected to show increased optimism as the recovery maintains momentum. However, indicators of capacity should remain consistent with still ample spare capacity, while employment measures reflect ongoing slack in the labor market. The trade surplus (Tuesday) is projected to narrow to C$0.7 bln in February from C$0.8 bln in January. Building permit values (Thursday) are anticipated to grow 2.0% in February after the 5.4% gain in January. Employment (Friday) is seen rising 20.0k in March after the 15.3k gain in February. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 6.6%. Governor Poloz offered a cautious view of Canada’s economy, saying in effect that the recent few odd firm data point should not make us forget about the numerous downside risk surrounding the outlook for Canada’s economy. Hence, another run of firm data will not change our view that the Bank will hold policy steady at next week’s announcement (April 12) and though the first half of 2018. The Ivey PMI (Friday) is projected to improve to 57.0 in March from 55.0 in February.

Europe: The Brexit process has officially begun, but both sides have merely set down pretty much as-expected positions. For Eurozone markets, at least, the Brexit issue has been overshadowed by the conflicting voices coming out of the ECB council ahead of the April meeting. Draghi did leave the easing bias in place in March, but pressure to drop return to a more neutral stance is mounting as data suggests upside risks to Q1 GDP numbers. Draghi is still insisting that rates can go down further, national central bank heads continue to talk about tapering and the sequencing of exit steps. Draghi will have a chance to clarify the central bank’s stance when he speaks in Frankfurt on Tuesday and Thursday and the minutes of the March meeting (Thursday), should give some indication of the extent on the discussion on the forward guidance at the last meeting.Data releases this week include the final readings of March PMI surveys, with the manufacturing PMI (Monday) expected to be confirmed at 56.6 and the services PMI (Wednesday) at 56.6 Initial readings were better than anticipated and already pointed to an upside risk to Q1 GDP projections and German manufacturing orders (Thursday) and industrial production (Friday) for February will be watched carefully in that respect. The data calendar also has retail sales, German trade data and French production numbers.

UK: The focus will remain on the early stages of the Brexit process, though hard negotiations between the UK and the EU are not likely to start until after German elections in September. The data calendar this week is highlighted by the March PMI surveys. The manufacturing PMI (Monday) expected to come in with a headline reading of 54.9, up from 54.6. Improving global demand coupled with the benefits of post-Brexit vote sterling weakness is underpinning the sector. The services PMI (Wednesday) has us anticipating a near unchanged reading of 53.3 after 53.3 in the month prior. Industrial production for February is also due (Friday), which is expected to rise 0.2% m/m after the 0.4% m/m contraction in the previous month.

Japan: In Japan, the March Tankan report (Monday) is seen rising to 12 from 10 for large manufacturers, and to 20 from 18 for large non-manufacturers. March auto sales are also due Monday. March consumer confidence (Thursday) is forecast to improve to 43.5 from 43.1.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is busy this week, highlighted by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday). RBA expected to hold rates steady at the accommodative 1.50% setting. Governor Lowe provides remarks at the Reserve Bank Board Dinner (Tuesday). Alex Heath, the Bank’s Head of Economic Analysis Department participates in a panel (Wednesday). Deputy Governor Debelle speaks on Recent Trends in Australian Capital Flow (Thursday). The slate of economic data is relatively busy this week. Retail sales (Monday) are expected to grow 0.4% m/m in February after an identical 0.4% rise in January. Building permits (Monday) are seen falling 2.0% in February after the 1.8% rise in January. ANZ job ads for March and the Melbourne Institute inflation index for March are also due on Monday. The February trade surplus (Tuesday) is projected to expand to A$2.5 bln from A$1.3 bln in January.

New Zealand: March QV house prices due Wednesday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Tue Apr 04, 2017 8:16 am

Date : 4th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th April 2017.


Image

FX News Today

European Outlook: Bund futures extended yesterday’s gains in opening trade, as DAX futures head south in tandem with U.S. futures after a largely negative session in Asia, where China and Taiwan remained closed for a holiday. Ongoing Yen strength is hitting exports and the RBA’s policy announcement, which left rates unchanged did little to cheer up the ASX. Investors continue to hold back ahead of the meeting between U.S. and China and FOMC and ECB minutes as well as U.S. jobs data at the end of the week. And with the European data calendar very quiet, Draghi’s speech is the only thing that could shake up things.

U.S. reports: revealed firm readings for March ISM and February construction spending, though we’re also seeing a 4% March drop in vehicle sales that trimmed our Q1 GDP growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.3%. For the ISM, there was only a small March drop to 57.2 from a 30-month high of 57.7 in February, and the jobs index surged to a 6-year high of 58.9 from 54.2. Robust producer sentiment readings is allowing the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to sustain the 57 cycle-high from February, and this combined with other robust soft-data signals upside risk for our 220k March nonfarm payroll estimate as discussed in today’s commentary. For construction, a 0.8% February bounce after upward revisions beat estimates, with strength in new home construction and improvement that likely reflected mild weather, though with weakness in nonresidential construction and a January upward public construction revision that trimmed recent gyrations.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Harker repeated 3 rate hikes would be appropriate in 2017, in his prepared remarks on Privately Issued Digital Money “Won’t Drive Out” Existing Currencies, assuming things stay on track. But he said, there’s no need to rush. The tightening should be gradual in pace and incremental. Inflation is moving slowly but surely higher, while unemployment is at or near its natural rate. Harker is a voter this year, but these leanings suggest no urgency. Fed dove Dudley also had a speech yesterday. Mr. Dudley stuck to the script on student debt, which he sees as one potential headwind to economic growth that “could help lower the equilibrium Fed funds rate.” He views rising college costs and student debt burdens as potentially inhibiting U.S. upward income mobility, while overall student loan debt could hurt U.S. homeownership and consumer spending. Other than the tangential reference to the equilibrium Fed funds rate, there’s not much here for the markets to trade. See his “Remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on the Household Borrowing, Student Debt Trends and Homeownership, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.”

Australia: The RBA left its cash rate at 1.50% and stuck with dovish guidance, as had been general expected following its April policy meeting. The statement by Governor Lowe noted improving global conditions, highlighting infrastructure spending and property construction in China, but noting that the domestic economy remains in transition following the end of the mining investment boom, with low wage growth persisting and underlying inflation seen rising only gradually. Lowe stuck with a focus on the Australian dollar, repeating that “an appreciating exchange rate would complicate” the economy’s transition phase. AUDJPY showing particularly sharp declines over the last couple of sessions. AUDJPY, which can be seen as a forex barometer of global risk appetite, is trading at levels last seen in early December. The RBA’s repetition of its desire to see the exchange rate remain a weaker level following its widely-expected decision to leave the cash rate at 1.50%, helped today weigh on the Aussies.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Construction PMI – The Construction PMI has as anticipating an almost unchanged reading of 52.4 after 52.5 in the month prior.

ECB – ECB President Draghi will speak in Frankfurt where he will have a chance to clarify the central bank’s stance.

US Trade Balance – February trade data expected to post a 7.2% improvement to a -$44.9 bln for the month from -$48.5 bln in January. The advance data on goods and service trade showed an improvement with that deficit narrowing to -$64.8 bln from -$68.8 bln in January.

Canadian Trade Balance – The trade report, expected to show a slight erosion in the surplus to C$0.7 bln in February from C$0.8 bln in January. Energy exports are seen improving, as crude oil prices were modestly higher in February while natural gas prices were nearly flat on a month average basis.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Wed Apr 05, 2017 8:19 am

Date : 5th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th April 2017.


Image

FX News Today

U.S. reports: China and Twaian were leading Asian markets higher after returning from holidays. Elsewhere gains were more muted and the Hang Seng is slightly in the red, as investors eye the Trump-Xi meeting. Bets on potential gains from the development of a so-called economic zone in Hebei province helped to lift China, while benchmarks in Japan and Australia fluctuated as currency advances weighted on exporters FTSE 100 futures are higher, but U.S. futures are in the red. Oil prices are up on the front end WTI future is trading at USD 51.38 per barrel. Released overnight the U.K. BRC shop price index was in line with expectations. The European data calendar still has final services PMI readings for the Eurozone, as well as the U.K. services PMI. Eurozone officials are once again trying to hammer out a deal with Greece that will allow the payment of the next aid tranche.

US reports: revealed stronger than expected trade deficit data and factory goods figures that closely tracked assumptions, leaving a net boost to our Q1 GDP growth estimate to 1.5% from 1.2%, after Q4 growth of 2.1%. For the trade deficit, we saw a February narrowing to $43.6 bln from a 5-year high of $48.2 bln, leaving a gap that was $1.4 bln narrower than indicated by the “advance” trade report after a $0.3 bln narrowing in January. For factory goods, the data matched estimates with lean February nondurable increases of 0.2% for shipments and orders and 0.1% for inventories. We saw only tiny tweaks in the durables data for orders, shipments, equipment and inventories that slightly lifted most levels.

ECB’s Liikanen: Strong monetary support still needed. The Governing Council member told Germany’s Handelsblatt, that “strong monetary support is still needed”, as the improvements seen so far are not big enough to “fundamentall” change the central bank’s guidance. Liikanen admitted that there were discussions at the last meeting and “there are a lot of opinions in the Governing Council”, adding that the statement did notice some improvements and tweaked some parts of the forward guidance, but added that the ECB “emphasized that interest rates will remain low beyond the end of asset purchases”. According to Liikanen that was “undisputed” although “there were discussions about what is meant by the words ‘current or lower levels’. The comments highlight the increasingly divergent views at the ECB as the central bank is starting to think about exit strategies and a phasing out of QE.

Canada: Canada’s February trade puts a damper on the Q1 GDP outlook, which was riding high after the stunning 0.6% m/m surge in January GDP lifted prospects for Q1 GDP to the 3.5% area. But the February trade balance sets up a sizable drag on Q1 growth from net exports. USDCAD revealed little immediate reaction to the twin Canada/U.S. trade reports, where the U.S. deficit narrowed more than expected, and the expected Canadian surplus turned to a deficit. The pairing has since rallied to new three-week highs of 1.3456 however, even as oil prices move to session highs near $50.70. The Canada trade report has thrown cold water on expectations for Q1 GDP, apparently to the detriment of the CAD.

Main Macro Events Today

FOMC – FOMC minutes are due today from the FOMC’s March 14, 15 meeting that included the first-rate hike of 2017.

UK Service PMI – The services PMI has us anticipating a near unchanged reading of 53.3 after 53.3 in the month prior.

EU Service PMI – The Eurozone services PMI expected to stay unchanged at 56.5, while Germany’s expected to stay unchanged as well at 55.6.

ADP Employment & ISM Non-Manuf. PMI – The MBA mortgage market report will be released today, accompanied by the March ADP employment report, which should post a 187k gain for the month, below the February figure of 298k. Markit services PMI are due, alongside ISM Non-Manufacturing index seen easing to 57.0 in March vs 57.6.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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