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[HFblogNews]

Date : 3rd February 2021.

Amazon, Alphabet & Stimulus top boost to the Equity market



Stock markets extended their rally overnight and yields climbed higher. 10-year rates jumped more than 11 bp in New Zealand after the country approved the first Covid-19 vaccine. The ongoing earnings season is adding support and better than expected revenue estimates from Alphabet and Amazon helped to bolster confidence.

The major indexes climbed back toward recent highs, unperturbed by the threat of six more weeks of winter as Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow. Treasury yields have lifted 0.9 bp to 1.1%, while JGB rates are up a modest 0.1 bp at 0.05%. The JPN225 gained 1% and the ASX 0.9%, although Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently both marginally lower after the People’s Bank of China drained some funds from the financial system. The GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.4% and 0.3% respectively.

The earnings season is in full swing now and so far hasn’t dented the renewed surge in risk appetite and confidence that vaccination programs will help the global recovery to strengthen this year. Wall Street had another very good day yesterday and the move higher in stocks is set to resume today, also helped by hopes of accelerated fiscal stimulus in the US. Against that background any lingering expectations of additional rate cuts in Europe are being priced out, which should keep pressure on core EGBs.

Headlines:

President Biden and Senate Democrats look to pass the $1.9 tln relief bill via “reconciliation” (51 votes) and bypassing the Republicans.

US: New cases of Covid-19 fall for a 3rd week in a row – the first time this has been seen since September.

According to IBES data from Refinitiv: More than 80% of reports from USA500 companies so far have surpassed analysts’ earnings expectations, with 97% of reports from technology companies beating.

Amazon — Shares of the retailer were up 1% in after-hours trading on the back of quarterly results that beat analyst expectations. Amazon reported earnings per share of $14.09 on revenue of $125.56 billion. Analysts polled by Refinitiv expected a profit of $7.23 per share on revenue of $119.7 billion.

The company also announced that CEO Jeff Bezos will move to the role of executive chairman in the third quarter and be replaced by Amazon Web Services head Andy Jassy as chief executive officer.

Alphabet — Alphabet shares jumped 6% after the tech giant reported better-than-expected results for the previous quarter. The company reported earnings per share of $22.30 on revenue of $56.9 billion. Analysts polled by Refinitiv expected a profit of $15.90 per share on a revenue of $53.13 billion.

GameStop — Shares of the brick-and-mortar video game retailer continued to tumble in after-hours trading on Tuesday following a 60% drop in the regular session. Shares are down more than 70% this week as the short squeeze trade unravels.

Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Salesforce are all investing in a $28 billion start-up company that crunches big data.

China Caixin services PMI dropped to 52.0 in January from 56.3.

Japan Jan Services PMI fell to 46.1 from 47.7 in December.

New Zealand Q4 2020 Unemployment rate 4.9% (vs. expected 5.6%).

BOJ Deputy Governor Wakatabe watered down expectations of much change from the bank’s monetary policy review due next month.

Forex Market

EUR – decline continues with the asset trading below 1.2100. S1 at 1.2007.
GBP – fell against the USD but remains above 20-DMA. S1: 1.3615, PP: 1.3660, R1: 1.3715.
JPY – lifted to 105.05, as the Yen weakened.
AUD – founds floor at 50-DMA (0.7600).
CAD – tumbled in 4-day range. Currently above S1 at 1.2750.
Silver – sharp reversal, filling the week’s gap. CFTC and CME warnings helped to quell price speculation.
USOil – at $55.20 with the move higher due to signs of tightening supply.

Today: Focus mainly on fundamentals which will be a focal point near term with ADP and ISM services reports today, and the jobs report Friday. Also Eurozone inflation data and final readings for Eurozone and UK Services PMIs meanwhile will act as a reminder that for now virus restrictions continue to weigh on overall activity and keep Europe on track for a recession over Q4/Q1.

Biggest Mover NZDJPY (+0.41% as of 08:00 GMT)



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 4th February 2021.

February: Emergence of more virulent strains.



The New Year’s rally on Wall Street and global markets ran into turbulence during January. Rising virus cases and more stringent lockdowns, a shaky rollout of the vaccine in the US and Europe and the emergence of more virulent strains tempered optimism about the recovery. A frenzy in select stocks prompted a surge in anxiety and volatility on Wall Street. But the equity market bounced back into February, supported by still intact recovery expectations and a calming in market volatility. The uptrend in bond yields sputtered amid myriad developments and uncertainties, only to resume as stocks rebounded.

In February, fundamentals will continue to inform recovery expectations, while the market remains alert for another round of volatility fueled by retail investors.



Fundamentals were briefly pushed to the side in the final week of January, as a frenzy erupted around shares of GameStop and AMC that was driven by retail investors taking cues from internet message boards. However, a rise in margin requirements and curbs on trading activity calmed trading in those high profile shares, easing the market’s anxiety.

The vaccine rollout was a bit rougher than hoped in the US and Europe during January, with reports circulating of unused doses and challenges with distribution. Moreover, the emergence of mutated strains globally prompted worries that the vaccines may not be as effective against the new strains, delaying a return to normal activities. Moderna and Pfizer reported that based on laboratory studies, their vaccines are only effective against one of the new variants. The mutations are an evolving situation that the markets will follow closely in February, even as vaccine distribution ramps up globally.

But as February began, encouraging signs emerged on vaccine distribution, infection rates and hospitalizations in the US and Europe. Consequently, global recovery expectations have been rolled ahead, not reduced or eliminated.

In the Eurozone, the Q4 GDP growth wasn’t as bad as feared. However, the risk of a double dip recession in both the Eurozone and the UK remains firmly on the table, as services in particular continue to suffer. Inflation has jumped higher at the start of the year, especially in Germany, which backs expectations that neither the ECB, nor the Bank of England are likely to add additional rate cuts. Eurozone Q4 GDP contracted -0.7% (q/q, sa), less than initially expected in the light of renewed lockdowns towards the end of the year. Economic activity was down -5.1% in the last quarter of 2020, compared to a year earlier, highlighting that there is a long way to go before activity has reached pre-pandemic levels even if restrictions are lifted quickly, which is unlikely to be the case. Hence, the risk of a technical recession remains firmly on the table, while data also highlights the growing divergence between Eurozone countries, which will pose a challenge for politicians and central bankers alike going forward.

Germany’s economy seems to have weathered the pandemic better than many other Eurozone countries, largely thanks to a resilient manufacturing sector, which has remained open during the current lockdown, and the recovery in major export markets. Like elsewhere, the central scenario remains for a recovery in activity in the second half of the year. But looking ahead, it will be key that the government doesn’t go back to the pre-pandemic status quo, but focuses on a structural renewal that helps to lift long term growth potential. The fact that Chancellor Merkel will leave the political stage following the general election in the second half of the year may be the chance to achieve just that.

German economic activity contracted -5.0% last year, somewhat less than feared, although adjusted for calendar effects the contraction was somewhat higher at -5.3% y/y. Of course Covid-19 developments and lockdowns are largely to blame, with much of the weakness concentrated in the first half of 2020, when strict lockdowns brought activity to a standstill.



Activity picked up over the summer, before another wave of infections resulted in the current lockdown. While this lockdown is less strict than in some other European countries, the hospitality and travel industries remain effectively shut down without the prospect of a swift easing of restrictions. Vaccination programs have started, but remain in the state hands, which has led to a very uneven rollout. Still, the manufacturing sector remains largely open and construction actually managed to expand last year. Furthermore, stock building exercises ahead of Brexit helped to boost manufacturing in Q4. However, there will likely be demand missed in the first quarter of this year and the chances are that there will be a technical recession over Q4 2020 and Q1 2021.

Still, the main scenario is for a recovery in the second half of the year, also helped by very favourable financing conditions and fiscal support that was scaled up substantially in 2020. The overall debt to GDP ratio is still much lower than in many other Eurozone countries, and with government bond yields negative out to the 10-year area and the ECB continuing to buy substantial amounts in the secondary market, clearly Germany doesn’t have a real problem financing the debt, especially with a huge current account surplus.

A healthy fiscal situation already helped Germany to scale up wage support programs and job retention schemes at the start of the pandemic and the jobless number has remained low by comparison — falling to just 6.1% at the end of last year. Like elsewhere it will take time before the true impact on the labour market will become clear — once government support has been phased out. The risk is that the pandemic will lead to higher structural unemployment if and when there are major structural shifts, with the older generation likely to struggle to re-integrate into a changed labour market.

Indeed, the pandemic has highlighted fundamental problems in Germany’s economic model. Like in other countries, the challenge for the government will be to use the funds being made available now to facilitate a shift in focus and a structural renewal. Economically that requires a move away from the focus on manufacturing and a strengthening of the still woefully inadequate digital infrastructure. The success of BioNTech in the search for a vaccine highlighted that there is still life in Germany’s R&D sector, but the overall number of start ups has been quite low in recent years compared to other countries. Germany will need to focus on promoting structural renewal — the exit of Chancellor Merkel from the political stage and the end of a focus on budget consolidation should provide the perfect opportunity for that.



Chancellor Merkel, who has been in office since 2005, really is on the way out now. She already relinquished the party leadership at the end of 2018, and will likely leave the political stage at the general election in the second half of the year. The experienced leader still helped to guide Germany through the pandemic. Her background in science clearly was beneficial during the first wave of the pandemic, when a swift reaction to developments prevented the type of death numbers seen elsewhere in Europe. Ironically though, that actually backfired to a certain extent as the lack of cases and excess deaths early on played into the hands of conspiracy theorists denying the existence of a real virus threat, leaving Chancellor Merkel with state premiers that not only went further in re-opening the economy over the summer than Merkel would have liked but also delayed the reaction to the renewed rise in case numbers later in the year.



There already have been coalitions between the conservatives and the former protest party at the state level, but whether this is a viable option for Berlin will also depend on who will become the candidate for Merkel’s succession in the general election. Merkel’s CDU is currently busy trying to determine a new party leader, and business-man Merz seems to have the upper hand. Under Merz, the CDU is likely to move more to the right and a pre-Merkel type of conservativism that would make cooperation with the Green Party more difficult. On the other hand, it may help the CDU/CSU win back some of the voters that went over to the AfD in protest against Merkel’s immigration policy. As such it could help to de-fragment the German political landscape.

If Merz becomes first party leader and then Chancellor, it would likely also have a positive impact on the digitalisation and the start up culture in Germany. However, Merkel’s departure is also likely to leave its mark on the political landscape in Europe and will have wider implications for the Eurozone and the EU going forward. A shift towards a greater focus on business interests under Merz will likely also mean an attempt to push German interests at European level and ultimately greater confrontation with the southern block. For now the focus on the pandemic has helped to gloss over differences at the ECB, but with the end of the pandemic, internal discussions and conflict are likely to pick up. Ultimately that could be healthy and if it does undermine market confidence in the Eurozone for a while and thus weigh on the EUR, that may actually be a welcome development at least at the start of the recovery.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 5th February 2021.

FX News Today – NFP Day! – Dollar set for best week in three months.



Stock markets have moved broadly higher overnight after a strong close on Wall Street, which was supported by indications that the labour market is recovering, positive forecast for upcoming earnings and ongoing hope of stimulus as markets buy into the expected recovery in the world economy later in the year, when vaccination programs have helped to re-open economies. Strength was also broadbased though paced by tech, financials, and energy. The USA100 climbed to 13,777 while the USA500 rose to 3871. The USA30 firmed to 31,055 but fell shy of its January 20 historic high of 31,188. Bond markets steadied and the 10-year Treasury yield is down -0.5 bp at 1.1%, while the JGB rate has dropped -0.4 bp to 0.05%. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, alongside broad gains in US futures.

That left sentiment upbeat ahead of the US payroll numbers today. Also helping has been the improving outlook on the pandemic as vaccine jabs increase and virus cases slow.

Headlines:

Strong earnings and improving fundamentals (jobless claims and factory orders today) supported, as did expectations for the $1.9 tln stimulus bill after the Democrats moved to fast-track the bill.
The RBA’s quarterly statement on monetary policy stuck to the script and repeated that the bank can still extend asset purchases if needed.
BoE not in the mood for negative rates! The BoE left policy settings unchanged, as widely expected. Lingering hopes that the central bank would join the negative rate club were dashed, and yields moved sharply higher while the Pound strengthened. – UK100 is still outperforming as the GBP remains supported following the BoE statement yesterday.
The global stock rally also paused briefly and despite cautious words from central bankers highlighting ongoing risks, investors are increasingly buying into the recovery story.
Earnings remain in focus with Ebay Inc and PayPal Holdings supported by positive forecasts.
GameStop closed under $55, its lowest for two weeks – Robinhood lifted restrictions on buying Gamestop and AMC.
Global bond funds led inflows in the seven days to Feb. 3, on the back of a rise in US yields, while money market funds witnessed the highest outflows in eight weeks.
Investors purchased $27.2 billion in bond funds last week, the biggest in eight months, and sold $32 billion worth of money market funds, Refinitiv Lipper data showed.

Forex Market

EUR – down for a second day below 1.2000.
GBP – supported at 1.3680. Gilts selling off yesterday and weighed on the UK100.
JPY – retests the 200-DMA and 3-month Resistance at 105.60.
AUD – ranging between PP and S1 (0.7600-0.7665).
CAD – stacked at 1.28 lows.
GOLD – breaks 1800.
USOil – remains supported and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 56.61 per barrel.

Today: Markets will be waiting for the non-farm payroll report out of the US but for what it is worth today’s local calendar includes German manufacturing orders data for December.

Biggest (FX) Mover – USOIL (-0.80% as of 08:50 GMT) – It clocked a fresh 1-year high at $56.84, breaking the 200-week SMA, with a strong weekly bullish candle, ignoring the 3-week doji candles posted so far. Data this week showing a drawdown in US crude inventories, along with demand-bolstering colder than usual winter weather in large parts of the northern hemisphere, have been underpinning oil.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 8th February 2021.

Events to Look Out this Week.



Leading indicators such as US and Chinese Inflation and GDP from the UK dominate the releases next week. The markets are going to remain focused on the vaccination programs development, while market volatility may slacken ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. China begins its New Year-Golden Week holiday on 11 February, as does Korea, while Taiwan starts a day earlier on Wednesday. Most other countries’ data will be out on Friday. Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Monday – 8 February 2021

Industrial Production (EUR, GMT 07:00) – Industrial production in Germany is expected to have dropped in December, reaching 0.7% m/m, below the 0.9% last month.

Tuesday – 9 February 2021

Trade Balance (CNY, GMT n/a) – The Chinese trade balance is expected to turn out positive in January, after the surplus of $78.17 billion in December.

Wednesday – 10 February 2021

Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – Chinese inflation is expected to grow in January at 1.1% m/m, with the headline at -0.1% y/y, following the 0.7% m/m rise on the monthly basis.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 07:00) – The final German HICP inflation for January is anticipated to remain unchanged at 1.6% y/y.

Consumer Price Index (USD, 13:30) – The US January CPI is expected to see 0.3% for the headline and 0.2% for the core, following a 0.4% gain for the headline and 0.1% for the core in December. CPI gasoline prices look poised to bounce 5.4% in January, leaving a tailwind for the headline. As-expected January figures would result in a 1.5% headline y/y increase, following a 1.4% pace in December. Core prices should show a 1.5% y/y rise, down from 1.6% in December. The headline y/y gains for all the inflation gauges are expected to climb sharply into Q2 of 2021 due to hard comparisons, leaving a peak headline CPI y/y gain in the 3.4% area in May, alongside a 2.6% y/y core price rise, with respective PCE y/y chain price gains of 2.6% and 2.0%.

BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 17:00)

Thursday – 11 February 2021

Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 13:30) – The US initial jobless claims fell -33k to 779k in the week ended January 30 after dropping -63k to 812k in the prior week. The decline in the most recent survey week leaves claims at the lowest level since the 716k reading in the November 27 week. Continuing claims dropped -193k to 4,592k in the January 23 week after slumping -190k to 4,785k (was 4,771k). This was another encouraging claims report, a trend which is expected to continue.

Friday – 12 February 2021

Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 07:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q4’s GDP is expected to slow down slightly at 15.8% q/q and -9.4% y/y.

Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 07:30) – Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have risen, with both providing an upwards contribution of 0.5% m/m and 0.9% m/m in December.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 9th February 2021.

Market Update – February 9 – BTC & Equities all-time-highs.



Market News Today

Equities (Nasdaq +0.95%) & BTC (+20%, $47k+) rally to new all-time highs & USD loses more momentum (USDIndex 90.65). USOil rallies to 13-month highs ($58.50), Gold up to $1840 and US 10-yr Yields at 1.16%. Details of US stimulus package show unemployment insurance will run until August 29th, & $1,400 cheques at the same income level as prior round but will reduce when income hits 75K. EU will follow Australia and get tech firms to pay for news (FT). Walt Disney & Gen. Motors up over 4.5% ahead of Earnings this week. Overnight – improved data from JPY, inflation increasing in NZD, and UK retail sales and German trade balance tick higher.

Today – German trade balance, US NFIB Business Optimism, EIA STEO, ECB’s Lane, Fed’s Bullard, Earnings – Twitter, Cisco & Total.




Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.40%) Continued Friday’s rally from 0.7135 lows and break of 20 MA yesterday at 0.7200 to test R1 today at 0.7245. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 63 & rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher & significantly over 0 line, Stochs. falling from OB zone after R1 breach, MFI remains in OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0009, Daily ATR 0.0064.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 10th February 2021.

Market Update – February 10 – USD continues to cool.



Market News Today

USD down again, Equities finished flat but Asian markets & Futs. higher after good earnings reports from Twitter, Cisco, Lyft and Toyota. Oil holds at 13-month highs, Gold holds 1840, BTC peaked at 48k and 10-yr Yields closed at 1.16% again, with expectations of inflation raised. Overnight JPY PPI in line but CNY CPI surprisingly dipped too (-0.3%), German CPI in line with expectations at 0.8%.

Today – US CPI, Oil inventories, ECB’s Lagarde, Panetta, BoE’s Bailey, Fed’s Powell, new Bonds from the UK, Germany & the US – Earnings from Coke, General Motors, Under Armour, Uber & 152 more US companies.




Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (-0.14%) Continued Friday’s decline from 0.9050 highs and re-break of 20 MA on Monday below 0.9000 to test S1 today at 0.8910. Faster MAs aligned and trending lower, RSI 24 & and OS, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower & significantly under 0 line, Stochs OS zone from earlier this morning. H1 ATR 0.0005, Daily ATR 0.0050.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 11th February 2021.

Market Update – February 11 – Consolidation: USD at lows, Equities at highs.



Market News Today

USD consolidates at lows, Equities finished flat (TWTR +13%). China, Japan and South Korea closed for start of Lunar New Year. US Inflation disappointed, taking the steam from the “buy everything” rally of the last few days. Biden spoke of concern about China’s “coercive and unfair economic practices” & human rights, ahead of speaking with Xi. Powell spoke of the significant bond purchasing programme continuing until Inflation rises significantly. Lagarde talked of not the time to slow down fiscal support & a digital EURO within 4 yrs. Oil slips a tad, Gold also consolidates and 10yr yields dipped to 1.12%. Overnight German Wholesale Inflation spiked to 2.1% from 0.6%, AstraZeneca Q4 sales beat estimates.

Narrow ranges have been prevailing in overall languid trading conditions. Singapore will be off tomorrow, and the lunar new year holiday will start tomorrow in Hong Kong. Despite these absentees, global stock markets have remained buoyant, if directionally unambitious. The dollar bloc currencies correspondingly have been firm while remaining below their respective Wednesday highs. The dollar itself settled above the lows that it saw yesterday. This left EURUSD making time in the lower 1.2100s, below Wednesday’s 10-day peak at 1.2145. USDJPY settled slightly to the north of the 104.50 level, above yesterday’s 13-day low at 104.41. Cable consolidated recent gains below yesterday’s 34-month peak at 1.3866.

Ahead, we anticipate that the dollar will continue to weaken, assuming that the reflation trade sustains on the back of the sharp drop on new positive Covid tests, which is being seen globally, vaccination optimism, and overall good corporate earnings reports, alongside stimulus and the prospect for a pent-up consumer spending spree in developed economies.

Today – US initial/continued jobless claims, OPEC & IEA MOMR, ECB’s de Guindos and Earnings from 185 US cos. including PepsiCo and Walt Disney.


Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.38%) Rallied from S1 at 0.7713 earlier, testing R1 now at 0.7750, yesterday’s high 0.7755. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 61 & rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and breaking over 0 line, Stochs OB zone from earlier this morning. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0058

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 12th February 2021.

Market Update – February 12 – USD ticks up from lows.



Market News Today

USD tweaks off lows, US Equities flat (Tilray -49.7%, latest Reddit frenzy, DISNEY & Pepsi beat expectations – big gains for Disney+ and lots of snacking at home in lockdowns). Weekly Claims data weak again. Most of Asia closed for Lunar New Year, Nikkei also flat into close. BTC rallied towards 49K – BNY Mellon will accept it as custodian status. Oil slips a tad on reduced forecasts from OPEC+ and the EIA consider the market still over supplied, Gold lost over $20 to $1820 and 10yr yields spiked 1.16% as new 30yr Treasuries were poorly received. Overnight UK GDP beat at 1.0% & Q3 revised up 1% to 16%, which leaves an overall record -9.9% for 2020; other industrial data better than expected too.

Ahead, we anticipate that the dollar will continue to weaken, assuming that the reflation trade sustains on the back of the sharp drop on new positive Covid tests, which is being seen globally, vaccination optimism, and overall good corporate earnings reports, alongside stimulus and the prospect for a pent-up consumer spending spree in developed economies.

Today – CAD Wholesale Sales, UoM Inflation & Consumer Sentiment & FED’s Williams.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (09:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.46%) Broke under 20Hr MA after open this morning, under 200hr MA, S1 and the key 0.7200 now. Faster MAs aligned and trending lower, RSI 30 and testing OS zone, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower and broke over 0 line earlier today. Stochs into OS zone. H1 ATR 0.0009, Daily ATR 0.0079.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 15th February 2021.

Events to Look Out this Week.



Markets are itching to push the reflation trade against the background of vaccine developments and fiscal stimulus. Central banks are, unsurprisingly, trying to slow the rise in yields, although even if officials highlight that virus mutations could delay the re-opening of economies and that the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, it seems futile at the moment to push against the gradual slide in core bonds. Fundamentals however will continue to dominate volatility as a busy week will start with leading indicators such as Inflation, Retail Sales, PMI and GDP from the largest economies in the world.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Monday – 15 February 2021

Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 23:50 Sunday) – Gross Domestic Product should plummet in the preliminary Q4 reading and reveal headline growth of 2.3% q/q from 5.3% q/q in Q3.

Industrial Production (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The volume of production of Industries for factories and manufacturing has been slowly recovering but showing signs of stalling. December’s reading however is expected to reveal a negative -0.3% m/m, a decline from November’s 2.5% m/m reading.

Tuesday – 16 February 2021

Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Eurozone Q4 GDP contracted -0.7% (q/q, sa), less than initially expected in light of renewed lockdowns towards the end of the year. Economic activity was down -5.1% in the last quarter of 2020, compared to a year earlier, highlighting that there is a long way to go before activity has reached pre-pandemic levels even if restrictions are lifted quickly, which is unlikely to be the case. The preliminary Gross Domestic Product for Q4 2020 should remain unchanged in the quarterly and yearly basis. Hence, the risk of a technical recession remains firmly on the table, while data also highlights the growing divergence between Eurozone countries, which will pose a challenge for politicians and central bankers alike going forward.

Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – European and German February ZEW economic sentiment are seen to have declined at 57.0 and 59.4 respectively.

Wednesday – 17 February 2021

Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK inflation data for January is anticipated lower at 0.5% y/y, after it came in slightly warmer than expected in December, at 0.6% y/y, up from 0.3% in the month prior. Core inflation lifted to 1.4% y/y last time. Even this remains firmly below the BoE’s target, but the headline rate is likely to jump in March and April, when strong base effects kick-in on year-on-year price comparisons (caused by last years ‘mother’ of lockdowns).

Retail Sales (USD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for a 0.8% January retail sales headline bounce with a 0.9% ex-autos increase, following respective December decreases of -0.7% and -1.4%. A 5.4% bounce for the CPI gasoline index is seen, that should provide a boost to service station sales.

Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The CPI inflation expected to accelerate to a 1.0% y/y pace in January, after its decline to 0.7% y/y last month.
FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC minutes should provide further guidance for 2021.

Thursday – 18 February 2021

Employment and Unemployment Rate (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The Australian jobs market is expected to show a negative employment report, with employment unchanged but unemployment to ticking up to 6.7% for January.

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 12:30) – The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. At the same time, low-for-longer remains the main message of the ECB and that will likely be enforced this year by switching to a more symmetric inflation target, which would see the ECB letting inflation run above target for a while, following the prolonged period of below-target headline rates.

Building Permits (USD, GMT 13:30) – Housing starts are expected to dip to a 1.600 mln pace from a 14-year high of 1.669 mln in December. Permits are expected to ease to 1.640 mln from a 14-year high of 1.704 mln in December. All the housing measures have rebounded sharply since Q2.

Friday – 19 February 2021

Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 07:00) – The Retail Sales are seen contracting at -1.0% m/m for January with the core higher at 0.8% from 0.4% m/m last month.

Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:00) – The Eurozone composite PMI was revised up in the final reading for January, at 47.8, while the headline remained firmly in contraction territory. The services reading was revised up to 45.4 from 45.0, but that still highlighted that the services sector is taking most of the hit from renewed lockdowns across Eurozone countries. Hence the preliminary February reading is expected lower again at 44.5, with manufacturing at 54.5 from 54.8 in January. Even though manufacturing continues to expand, this isn’t helping consumer sentiment. Overall, Germany may be the one that could escape another technical recession, but the Eurozone overall clearly is set for a renewed contraction in activity in Q1, after activity already dropped off in Q4 last year.

UK Services PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Like in the Eurozone, the weakness is mainly concentrated in the services sector, and the final services PMI came in at just 39.5, highlighting that the return of lockdown measures has hit the hospitality, high street retail and public transport sectors very hard.

Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for a 0.1% m/m December retail sales with a decline of the ex-autos measure to 0.3%, following November gains of 1.3% and 2.1% respectively.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 16th February 2021.

Market Update – February 16.



Market News Today

The stock rally continued overnight as sentiment remains underpinned by growing conviction that the vaccine rollout will boost the global recovery and as Asian markets are coming back from the extended weekend. China remains closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. The JPN225 closed 1.3% higher above the 30000 mark, after trimming some gains following an FT story that China is considering limiting rare earth mineral supplies to US defence contractors, which rekindled concern over the future of US-China relations. This is a reminder that virus developments are not the only factor determining the world growth outlook.

Bond markets meanwhile remain under pressure as reflation trades unfold and the US 10-year rate jumped 2.3 bp to 1.23%. JGB rates are up 0.1 bp at 0.075%. GER30 and UK100 futures are marginally higher, underperforming versus US futures. US Treasury yields are at their highest since March. In FX markets, the USDIndex fell to a 3-week low while the USDJPY lifted to 105.54 amid broad pressure on the Yen, although the Dollar was lower against most other currencies. USOIL retraced to $59.90 from $60.95 – US boosted power demand but also threatened oil production in Texas. Crude markets are well into pre-pandemic ranges, yet global demand is not likely be restored to pre-pandemic levels for a considerable time.

Bitcoin flirts with breaking through the $50,000 barrier – 350% gains in the past 12 months.

Today – Data releases today focus on the second reading for Eurozone Q4 GDP, and German ZEW investor confidence for February. There is room for an upside surprise on the ZEW against the background of the global stock rally and strengthened confidence in the global recovery.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.51%) Broke 3-year Resistance area 76-76.50 following a 3-month rally. Faster MAs however have retraced in the past 4 hours, confirming the pullback from 76.70 highs to 76.30, and are currently sideways, suggesting consolidation above the 20-hour SMA. MACD histogram & signal line lost some ground, with RSI at 57 and Stochastic sloping aggressively lower in line with the pullback. However only a break below the 20-hour SMA could suggest further decline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.