Dollar Outlook Next Week Hinges on Bernanke
The month of June has proven to be an extremely volatile period in the forex market as the U.S. dollar fell aggressively against many major currencies. Unfortunately we can't expect the markets to calm anytime soon with a heavy dose of economic data expected from countries around the world. The U.K. and Australia will release monetary policy minutes, the Swiss National Bank will hold a monetary policy meeting and of course - we also have the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on the calendar. In addition to these event risks, Eurozone PMIs, New Zealand GDP, UK retail sales, US manufacturing data and Canadian retail sales are also scheduled for release. Yet there's no question that of all these events, the most important will be the Fed meeting. Much of the volatility in the financial markets has been caused by the uncertainty of Fed policy. There's been a lot of talk about tapering asset purchases, which has caused stocks to weaken but at the same time, central bank officials and noted Fed watchers have stressed that a reduction in Quantitative Easing does not equate to tightening. They are absolutely right and we think that the rest of the market is beginning to realize this connection as well but based on the reaction to Jon Hilsenrath's article this week, there are still a subset who need convincing.
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FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
24h | All. G8 Meeting
2013-06-17 09:00 GMT | EMU. Labour cost (Q1)
2013-06-17 09:00 GMT | EMU. Trade Balance n.s.a. (Apr)
2013-06-17 12:30 GMT | USA. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-06-17 04:55 GMT | EUR/AUD testing 1.3850 support on Euro weakness
2013-06-17 04:02 GMT | EUR/USD dips to fresh session lows ahead of G-8
2013-06-17 02:23 GMT | USD/JPY extends gains above 94.50
2013-06-17 00:49 GMT | Aussie pops above 0.96 USD
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.33573 LOW 1.33184 BID 1.33187 ASK 1.33191 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08:14:08
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD trapped to the consolidation phase. Local high at 1.3358 (R1) offers a key resistance level. Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets at 1.3379 (R2) and 1.3399 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support level at 1.3294 (S1) might maintain a negative tone and prolong corrective action. Price devaluation would then be targeting our supportive measures at 1.3272 (S2) and 1.3250 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.3358, 1.3379, 1.3399
Support Levels: 1.3294, 1.3272, 1.3250
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.57319 LOW 1.56927 BID 1.56935 ASK 1.56944 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08:14:09
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistive barrier at 1.5737 (R1) on the upside. Surpassing of this level may initiate bullish pressure towards to next visible targets at 1.5768 (R2) and 1.5799 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price failed to overcome our next resistance level we expect market easing below the support level at 1.5671 (S1). Loss here would shift our intraday outlook to the bearish side with expected targets at 1.5639 (S2) and 1.5606 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5737, 1.5768, 1.5799
Support Levels: 1.5671, 1.5639, 1.5606
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USDJPY :
HIGH 94.837 LOW 94.098 BID 94.722 ASK 94.726 CHANGE 0.67% TIME 08:14:09
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: Upside formation is limited now to the next resistive barrier at 95.05 (R1). Clearance here is required to provide a space for a move towards to next target at 95.53 (R2) and then final aim would be 96.04 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, an element of supportive measures could be found at 94.24 (S1). Clearance here would suggest possible downtrend development towards to initial targets, located at 93.75 (S2) and 93.27 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 95.05, 95.53, 96.04
Support Levels: 94.24, 93.75, 93.27
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Account | Best ECN Forex Brokers | Forex Trading Systems | FXCC )