Australia: RBA Sees the Medicine Starting to Take, But Is It?
After a year-and-a-half of cuts in its cash rate, Australia’s central bank kept rates unchanged at its recent meeting citing a firming in economic growth. We are not convinced and cannot rule out more rate cuts. Australia’s economy has outpaced many of the world’s advanced economies in recent years in addition to having mostly sidestepped the worst of the global slowdown of 2009. Having said that, the economy has not been without its challenges. More recently, these headwinds have come from abroad. The sovereign debt situation in Europe has had knock-on effects in other parts of the global economy, particularly in China, Australia’s number one export partner.
While the Australian economy continues to grow, the pace of that growth has slowed in each of the past two quarters. In fact, the 1.9 percent annualized growth rate in Q3 2012 was the second weakest outturn for economic growth in Australia since 2009. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been acutely aware of the weakening in growth and has steadily reduced its benchmark lending rate, the cash rate, a total of 175 basis points over the past year and a half. The RBA’s decision to stay on hold at its meeting earlier this month surprised some market watchers who had anticipated another rate cut. Minutes from the February meeting of the RBA offer some perspective behind the decision to leave rates unchanged at 3.00 percent.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-ma ... y-20-2013/
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-20 07:00 GMT | Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-20 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Bank of England Minutes
2013-02-20 13:30 GMT | United States. Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-20 19:00 GMT | United States. FOMC Minutes
Forex News
2013-02-20 05:54 GMT | USD/JPY prints fresh weekly lows above 93.10
2013-02-20 05:27 GMT | EUR/USD escapes bear calls; next target at 1.35
2013-02-20 04:57 GMT | GBP/USD above 1.5420, off 7th consecutive daily lower low
2013-02-20 04:21 GMT | AUD/NZD rallies on RBNZ warnings
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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EURUSD
HIGH: 1.34337 | LOW: 1.33825 | BID: 1.34130 | ASK: 1.34138 | CHANGE: 0.17% | TIME: 08 : 01:29
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market strengthening is the likely scenario after the price finally established directional movement yesterday. A local high has been set at 1.3434 (R1), break here is required to enable route towards to next targets at 1.3450 (R2) and 1.3466 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support comes at 1.3396 (S1) level. Loss here might shift market sentiment to the bearish side and validate our next visible target 1.3380 (S2) en route towards to final support level at 1.3364 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3434, 1.3450, 1.3466
Support Levels: 1.3396, 1.3380, 1.3364
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GBPUSD
HIGH: 1.54508 | LOW: 1.54204 | BID: 1.54387 | ASK: 1.54398 | CHANGE: 0.09% | TIME: 08 : 01:30
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
Upwards scenario: Bank of England Minutes at 09:30 GMT might bring additional volatility to the markets. Clearance of our next resistance level at 1.5454 (R1) would suggest next interim target at 1.5489 (R2) and if market holds its upside momentum last resistance could be found at 1.5524 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the key support barrier at 1.5415 (S1). Only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to our next targets at 1.5381 (S2) and potentially even 1.5347 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5454, 1.5489, 1.5524
Support Levels: 1.5415, 1.5381, 1.5347
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USDJPY
HIGH: 93.822 | LOW: 93.137 | BID: 93.222 | ASK: 93.228 | CHANGE: -0.36% | TIME: 08 : 01:31
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
Upwards scenario: Price tested negative territory today and currently lost -0.36 % in its price value. Never the less clearance of next resistive structure at 93.35 (R1) might open the way towards to our initial target at 93.50 (R2) and any further market rise would then be targeting 93.63 (R3). Downwards scenario: The base of the descending channel formation offers an important supportive mark at 93.11 (S1). Depreciation below it might shift medium-term tendency to the bearish side and validate next intraday targets at 92.97 (S2) and 92.82 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 93.35, 93.50, 93.63
Support Levels: 93.11, 92.97, 92.82
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )