Market positioning for a stronger NFP reading - Westpac
Market positioning for US Aug non-farm payrolls is likely to be for a stronger reading than economists’ consensus of 130K, given the better ADP survey and also the non-manufacturing ISM, says Sean Callow, currency strategist at Westpac. The bank forecast is gloomier, "looking for 80K after the surprisingly firm 163K in July. The market range is 70-185K."
London session ahead will be focused on key data coming from the US at 12:30 GMT in the form of NFP. But earlier will come a bunch of other minor EUR related data, starting with German current account and trade balance at 06:00 GMT (all times GMT), followed by French trade balance 45 minutes later, Spanish industrial production at 07:00, the Netherlands industrial production half hour later, Greece final 2Q GDP at 09:00, and German industrial production and Portugal final 2Q GDP both at 10:00.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-07 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jul)
2012-09-07 12:00 GMT | United States. Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)
2012-09-07 12:30 GMT | Canada. Net Change in Employment (Aug)
2012-09-07 14:00 GMT | United Kingdom. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Aug)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-07 04:40 GMT | EUR/USD ahead of US NFP above 1.26 around 5 year volatility lows
2012-09-07 04:32 GMT | GBP/USD upside favored – V.Bednarik
2012-09-07 03:35 GMT | AUD/USD at day highs; stops at 1.03 tripped
2012-09-07 03:19 GMT | Fitch warns Japan rating in danger to be downgraded
EURUSD : 1.26371 / 1.26376
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2741 | 1.2697 | 1.2654
1.2610 | 1.2566 | 1.2524
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
United States Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:00 GMT in focus today as major marked driver. Economist’s consensus is 130K. Hourly, instrument looks overbought and we expect some gradual easing below the next support level at 1.2610 (S1) later on today. Our suggested targets are 1.2566 (S2) and 1.2524 (S3). While next resistances is seen at 1.2654 (R1), clearance here is required for instrument strengthening towards to our next targets at 1.2697 (R2) and 1.2741 (R3) later on today.
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GBPUSD : 1.59330 / 1.59340
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6003 | 1.5975 | 1.5943
1.5917 | 1.5889 | 1.5860
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
GBPUSD bounced on the Mario Draghi’s commentary yesterday. Next portion of macroeconomic data release from UK is expected today at 08:30 GMT - Manufacturing Production. Our main scenario remains unchanged, GBPUSD at the moment deviate from its up-trend on the short term timeframe. Next resistance is maintained at 1.5943 (R1), break here might open space for a move to test targets at 1.5975 (R2) and 1.6003 (R3) in potential. However on the medium term, market is overbought and correction is possible from current levels. Decrease below the support at 1.5917 (S1) might expose next targets at 1.5889 (S2) and 1.5860 (S3).
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USDJPY : 78.927 / 78.930
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
79.42 | 79.22 | 79.03
78.77 | 78.58 | 78.38
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The USD rose yesterday versus the JPY, turning hourly sentiment to the positive territory and exposed our final target at 78.92. Next resistance ahead at is placed at yesterday high- 79.03 (R1), brake here is required to open way for further appreciation towards to 79.22 (R2) and 79.42 (R3). On the downturn, price decline below the next support levels at 78.77 (S1) might trigger bearish pressure and enable next target at 78.58 (S2). A break below it would suggest last target for today at 78.38 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Automatic forex trading | Learning Forex Trading | ECN Forex Trading Signal | FXCC )