Spain full-blown bailout done deal - Nomura
Spain will need full-blown bailout which will include more active role of ECB in Spanish bond markets, says Nomura in a research note. The bank thinks capital flight from Spain is in a "category of its own," with massive outflows raising “serious concerns about the implications for banking sector stability and economic growth,” Nomura strategists Jens Nordvig and Charles St.-Arnaud write in client note. Interestingly, the following line via Bloomberg points at capital outflows on 3-month rolling basis at 50% of GDP vs Italy 15%; for comparison, Indonesia outflow during Asian crisis peaked at 23%.
The London session ahead will bring just few minor PMI figures from the EU in terms of EUR macro data related and EU retail sales. Spanish services PMI will be out at 07:13 GMT, followed 30 minutes later by Italian services PMI, 5 minutes later by French one, another 5 minutes for German one, and finally another 5 minutes for the EU final services PMI at 07:58 GMT. EU retail sales are due at 09:00 GMT. At 13:00 GMT EU's Van Rompuy is expected to meet French PM Hollande so very probably some headlines will come that way.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-05 07:58 GMT | E. M.U. Markit Services PMI (Aug)
2012-09-05 08:28 GMT | United Kingdom. Markit Services PMI (Aug)
2012-09-05 09:00 GMT | E. M.U Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)
2012-09-05 13:00 GMT | Canada. BoC Interest Rate Decision
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-05 04:35 GMT | GBP/USD in tight range above 1.5850
2012-09-05 02:26 GMT | AUD/CAD: quick dip below 1.0050
2012-09-05 00:12 GMT | EUR/USD holds negative tone at Tokyo fix
2012-09-04 23:23 GMT | BoC, modest withdrawal of stimulus likely - Nomura
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EURUSD : 1.25340 / 1.25345
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2637 | 1.2598 | 1.2557
1.2517 | 1.2476 | 1.2432
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
EURUSD broke our expected support level at 1.2594 and reached our target at 1.2557 yesterday. Intraday term bias remains negative below the next resistance at 1.2557 (R1). However, brake here would suggest about the market sentiment change to the bullish and we expect appreciation towards to 1.2598 (R2) and 1.2637 (R3) in such scenario. Risk of further easing is seen below the support at 1.2517 (S1), decline below it might expose next targets at 1.2476 (S2) and 1.2432 (S3) in potential. Today in focus are E.M.U. Markit Services PMI at 07:58 GMT and Retail Sales at 09:00 GMT.
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GBPUSD : 1.58620 / 1.58629
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5922 | 1.5899 | 1.5875
1.5855 | 1.5830 | 1.5804
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The pair has formed fresh low today at 1.5855 (S1), which is currently our next support level. Fall below it would suggest next targets at 1.5830 (S2) and 1.5804 (S3). Though, intraday Bull’s power might activate when the pair approach resistance level at 1.5875 (R1). Our next target is seen at 1.5899 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be targeting 1.5922 (R3). Attention on the United Kingdom Markit Services PMI release at 08:28 GMT today.
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USDJPY : 78.413 / 78.417
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.92 | 78.73 | 78.54
78.17 | 77.98 | 77.80
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
USDJPY appreciated yesterday and formed fresh high at 78.54 (R1), which is currently our next resistance level. Rise above it might provide sufficient space for the appreciation towards to next target at 78.73 (R2). Brake here is required to enable last target for today at 78.92 (R3). Market decrease below the next important support level at 78.17 (S1) would suggest about the downtrend development with next target at 77.98 (S2). Further instrument easing might face final support at 77.80 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )