ECB bond buying plan unlikely to be fully unveiled at the Sep ECB meeting - TDS
With summer drawing to a close, "it's time to see if the monetary weapons will be revealed", says Rich Kelly, research analyst at TDS. "Disappointment at some stage along the way is a real possibility and we eventually expect the ECB’s new bond buying plan to satisfy the market, but it is unlikely to be fully unveiled at the September ECB meeting, and once announced, there will be a lag before Spain asks for it, and markets hate waiting and uncertainty" the analyst notes.
In the sessions ahead, the UK’s non-seasonally adjusted Nationwide Housing Prices data for August will be key risk event for GBP, but the market is likely to be distracted as it awaits Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-08-31 09:30 GMT | E.M.U. Unemployment Rate (Jul)
2012-08-31 12:30 GMT | Canada. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2)
2012-08-31 14:00 GMT | United States. Fed's Bernanke Speaks at Jackson Hole
2012-08-31 18:30 GMT | All. IMF's Lagarde Speaks at Jackson Hole
FOREX NEWS :
2012-08-31 03:45 GMT | USD/JPY dips to 6-day lows, still in range
2012-08-31 03:01 GMT | NZD/USD finding resistance below 0.80
2012-08-31 02:11 GMT | GBP/JPY sideways around 124.00
2012-08-31 02:46 GMT | EUR/AUD within quiet, narrow range
EURUSD : 1.25109 / 1.25114
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2577 | 1.2550 | 1.2523
1.2481 | 1.2451 | 1.2417
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Today major market drivers would be Fed's Bernanke Speech at 14:00 GMT and IMF's Lagarde Speech at 18:30 GMT at Jackson Hole. However some macroeconomic data would be released during the European trading session, in focus E.M.U. Unemployment Rate at 09:00 GMT and Germany Retail Sales at 06:00 GMT. Appreciation above the next resistance level at 1.2523 (R1) potentially might expose higher targets at 1.2550 (R2) and 1.2577 (R3) later on today. Bearish penetration below the suggested yesterday support at 1.2513 targeting 1.2481 (S1) and 1.2451(S2) in potential. Final support level for today locates at 1.2417 (S3).
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GBPUSD : 1.57932 / 1.57941
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5859 | 1.5830 | 1.5800
1.5770 | 1.5741 | 1.5712
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Yesterday Instrument made an attempt to establish positive bias but failed to go much higher our suggested resistance level at 1.5838. During the US Session pair recovered all gains and met our downside direction target at 1.5772. Fresh low, formed yesterday is our next support level at 1.5770 (S1), brake here might shift market sentiment to the “Bearish” side. In such scenario we expect further decline towards to next targets at 1.5741 (S2) and 1.5712 (S3). Risk of GBPUSD strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 1.5800 (R1). Progress above it might expose targets at 1.5830 (R2) and 1.5859 (R3) in potential.
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USDJPY : 78.435 / 78.440
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.91 | 78.85 | 78.57
78.28 | 78.10 | 77.92
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Market remains in sideways mode trading however potential volatility increase due to the Jackson Hole Symposium might assist to the trend development on the market. Signal of market sentiment change to the bearish would be provided if market drop below the next support level at 78.28 (S1). Suggested targets locates at 78.10 (S2) and 77.92 (S3). On the other side, brake above the resistance at 78.57 (R1) might lead to the bullish scenario and expose targets at 78.85 (R2) and 78.91 (R3).
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