Forget AUD intervention; RBA rate cuts far more likely - UBS
AUDUSD failed to have a close above 1.05 on Tuesday, with today's price action printing steady declines since the opening of the Australian market. Yesterday, the RBA signaled that remains in a wait-and-see mode as the effects of previous rate cuts continue to percolate through the economy. According to UBS strategist Chris Walker, "attention now shifts to Governor Stevens' semi-annual parliamentary testimony on August 24, especially in the wake of the Treasury's comments last week highlighting the strength of the currency." UBS very much doubt the RBA is poised to intervene in the currency markets, and "if the tightening impact of a strong currency eventually becomes too severe, the bank is far more likely to respond with rate cuts rather than a round of FX intervention" Chris adds.
For second day in a row no major EUR macro data related will be released during London session hours, leaving main risk events for the NY session ahead, starting with US new home sales at 14:00 GMT followed by FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT. In the sovereign debt auctions front Germany will sell up to € 5B in 2 year federal notes at 06:00 GMT, while Spain had a good auction yesterday and its 10 year yields are down for 10th consecutive day around 6.2%, and risk premium with Germany below the 500bps.
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2012-08-22 12:30 GMT | Canada. Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
2012-08-22 14:00 GMT | United States. Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)
2012-08-22 15:00 GMT | Canada. BoC Governor Mark Carney Speech
2012-08-22 18:00 GMT | United States. FOMC Minutes
2012-08-22 04:38 GMT | GBP/USD: sideways above 200 EMA
2012-08-22 03:48 GMT | EUR/JPY consolidates below 100-day EMA
2012-08-22 03:24 GMT | GBP/AUD should press higher in coming weeks - Westpac
2012-08-22 02:20 GMT | EUR/AUD extends above key Fibo resistance
EURUSD : 1.24679 / 1.24684
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2559 | 1.2524 | 1.2488
1.2447 | 1.2415 | 1.2383
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Yesterday we saw significant volatility increase. EURUSD broke up our resistance level at 1.2369 and reached our final target at 1.2408. Technically, market sentiment is “Bullish” now and we expect further instrument appreciation on the medium term perspective. Further price increase is expected above the next resistance level at 1.2488 (R1). Brake here is required to enable next targets at 1.2524 (R2) and 1.2559 (R3). On the other hand, consolidation looks reasonable today. Price progress below the next support level at 1.2447 (S1) might expose next targets at 1.2415 (S2) and 1.2383 (S3) in potential.
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GBPUSD : 1.57889 / 1.57898
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5855 | 1.5830 | 1.5804
1.5765 | 1.5740 | 1.5717
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
GBPUSD appreciated yesterday above the expected resistance level at 1.5744 and met our last suggested target at 1.5802. Next resistance level ahead locates at 1.5804 (R1), brake here is required to enable next target at 1.5830 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.5855 (R3). However development of the price retracement is reasonable today. Instrument depreciation below the next support level at 1.5765 (S1) might expose next targets at 1.5740 (S2) and 1.5717 (S3) in potential.
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USDJPY : 79.273 / 79.277
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
79.86 | 79.66 | 79.48
79.17 | 78.98 | 78.78
SUMMARY : Up trend
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
USDJPY hit our resistance level at 79.48 and continued moving lower. All supports and resistance levels remain the same as yesterday. If the market manage to climb above our next resistance level at 79.48 (R1), we expect next target to be achieved at 79.66 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting to 79.86 (R3). Clear brake below the 79.17 (S1) would enable next target at 78.98 (S2). Successful clearance here is required to put in pocus final support level at 78.78 (S3), intraday.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, ( ECN Forex Indicators | Learn Forex | Trade Forex | FXCC )