Late 2012/early 2013 best guess for next QE3 - Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius recent note to clients warns of the increasing possibility of further delays on the Fed communicating the next easing package to the market. "While QE3 at the September 12-13 FOMC meeting remains possible, our best estimate is that it will take until late 2012/early 2013 before Fed officials return to balance sheet expansion."
London session ahead will be another one again with almost no EUR macro data related to be released, but EU CPI figures at 09:00 GMT as most critical, while in the EZ sovereign debt auctions front there was a Spanish one that has been canceled. Risk premium between Germany and Spain fell yesterday to a several days low around the 500bps, with German yields rising as risk sentiment is improving, and Spanish 10y yields remaining range-bound below the key 7%. Much worse FDI figures today coming from China showing a decrease in -8.7% in Foreign Direct Investment (YoY) (Jul) have been helping the recent rise in USD. (fxstreet.com)
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-08-16 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)
2012-08-16 09:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
2012-08-16 12:00 GMT | United States. Building Permits (MoM) (Jul)
2012-08-16 14:00 GMT | United States. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Aug)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-08-16 04:33 GMT | GBP/USD range bound, UK Retail Sales on offer
2012-08-16 03:59 GMT | AUD/USD top heavy, still above 21-day EMA
2012-08-16 03:51 GMT | AUD/NZD ranging above 1.3000
2012-08-16 03:06 GMT | GBP/JPY aiming toward key Fibo resistance
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EURUSD : 1.22709 / 1.22714
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2373 | 1.2344 | 1.2310
1.2263 | 1.2224 | 1.2183
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Yesterday instrument dropped below our suggested support level at 1.2310 and met our target at 1.2270. Instrument stabilized on the Asian session and we expect further decrease later on today as major scenario, however clearance of next resistance level at 1.2310 (R1) would open road to the next targets at 1.2344 (R2) and 1.2373 (R3). Our next support level at locates at 1.2263 (S1), technically important level (Yesterday low). Loss here might encourage executing of orders and drive market price towards to the next targets at 1.2224 (S2) and 1.2183 (S3) levels.
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GBPUSD : 1.56421 / 1.56424
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5778 | 1.5740 | 1.5703
1.5659 | 1.5623 | 1.5583
SUMMARY : Sideway
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
GBPUSD continue its sideways movements. We suggest waiting for a clear signal of directional movement. Next important technical resistance stay at 1.5703 (R1), brake here is required for market expansion towards to next target at 1.5740 (R2) and any further increase would be limited by final resistance at 1.5778 (R3). Failure to go higher might push markets to retest previous day low at 1.5659 (S1), which is currently our next support level. Brake here would suggest next target at 1.5623 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited by last support at 1.5583 (S3).
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USDJPY : 79.282 / 79.286
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
79.84 | 79.64 | 79.45
79.05 | 78.85 | 78.63
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
On the Asian session we saw significant volatility increase and market provide us with a clear signal of uptrend development. Currently USDJPY gained +0.46 % and we expect further appreciation towards to our next resistance levels at 79.45 (R1) and 79.64 (R2) later on today. Intraday price increase looks limited by last resistance level at 79.84 (R3). Development of the correction is possible from current levels. Next support level locates at 79.05 (S1), brake here would suggest next targets at 78.85 (S2) and 78.63 (S3) in potential.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Calculator | ECN Forex Training | Forex Demo Account | FXCC )