USD, from here to eternity - UBS
The US Dollar is likely to remain the world's reserve currency over the next fifty years, says Mansoor Mohi-uddin Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy at UBS Macro Research. "This eternity forecast could be derailed if a deadlocked Congress refused to raise America's debt ceiling, yet, in the absence of the US government defaulting in future, the dollar's dominance may prove surprisingly durable" Mr. Mohi-uddin said in a research note.
London session ahead has almost no EUR macro data related, with only German wholesale price index at 06:00 GMT, followed by French current account 45 minutes later, and Greek prelim 2Q GDP at 09:00 GMT. Little bit busier in the sovereign debt auctions front, Germany will sell up to € 4B in 6 month bills at 06:00 GMT, while Italy will auction up to € 8B in 12 month bills.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-08-13 06:00 GMT | Germany. Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
2012-08-13 22:45 GMT | New Zealand. Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q2)
2012-08-13 23:00 GMT | United Kingdom. RICS Housing Price Balance (Jul)
2012-08-13 23:50 GMT | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
FOREX NEWS :
2012-08-13 04:14 GMT | GBP/AUD sideways, off 6-month lows
2012-08-13 03:50 GMT | EUR/JPY holding above 96.00
2012-08-13 03:25 GMT | AUD/USD gently bid above 1.0550
2012-08-13 02:44 GMT | Downside USD/JPY risks appear limited - UBS
EURUSD : 1.22841 / 1.22845
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2490 | 1.2402 | 1.2327
1.2240 | 1.2165 | 1.2085
SUMMARY :
Upward : penetration
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Market sentiment remains positive on the medium term perspective. The crossing of moving averages recently could be considered as signal of uptrend direction priority for today. A break above 1.2327 (R1) would suggest target at 1.2402 (R2) and further gain will then be limited at 1.2490 (R3). However break below the 1.2240 (S1) level might provide space for further retracement development. We suggest next target at 1.2165 (S2), brake here is required to enable final target at 1.2085 (S3).
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GBPUSD : 1.56679 / 1.56690
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5805 | 1.5755 | 1.5702
1.5656 | 1.5605 | 1.5555
SUMMARY : Sideway
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Instrument stabilized after the Friday’s appreciation. Currently pair is losing -0.11% from its opening price. If the price manages to stay above suggested support level at 1.5656 (S1), we expect the price to attack next resistance level at 1.5702 (R1). Clearance here is required for the instrument strengthening, next expected target holds at 1.5755 (R2). Any further rise would be limited by last resistance at 1.5805(R3) intraday. On the other hand, drop below support level at 1.5656 (S1) would suggest next target at 1.5605 (S2). Final support level for today holds at 1.5555 (S3).
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USDJPY : 78.305 / 78.310
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.79 | 78.60 | 78.41
78.14 | 77.92 | 77.70
SUMMARY : Sideway
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 23:50 GMT might assist to the trend development. A break above the first resistance level at 78.41 (R1) would suggest next target at 78.60 (R2). If the price holds its momentum on the upside we can expect a further rise towards to 78.79 (R3). On the other hand, if the price does not manage to break above 78.41 (R1) we can expect the pair to retest support at 78.14 (S1) and a further fall will be targeted at 77.92 (S2). Successful brake here might expose last target at 77.70 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, ( ECN Forex Trader | Forex Strategies | Forex Trading Software | FXCC )