Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 17th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th OCTOBER 2016.



Main Macro Events This Week

United States: The economic calendar is a relatively light one this week, but does include an important inflation update, a rash of housing data and the Philly Fed survey. The Empire State index is forecast to rebound to 1.0 in October (Monday), while industrial production may recover 0.1% in September, capacity utilization seen rising to 75.6% from 75.5%. CPI is projected to jump 0.3% headline (Tuesday), with a 0.2% core rise vs 0.3%. The NAHB housing market index is expected to dip to 63 in October. The MBA mortgage application survey is due (Wednesday) and we’ll see how well it absorbs the rebound in mortgage rates, while housing starts are seen rebounding 2.4% to a 1,170k pace in October. EIA energy inventories will also be monitored for any “tell” on the near-term direction of energy prices. The Philly Fed index may sink to 6.3 in October from 12.8 (Thursday), while initial jobless claims may bounce 4k to 250k. Leading indicators are expected to rise 0.2% in September vs -0.2%, while existing home sales may bounce 1.3% to 5.40 mln. The calendar is empty Friday.

Fedspeak: the big guns continue to appear this week after Yellen’s dovish long-term guidance last week, starting with Fed Vice Chairman Fischer (Monday) who has been leaning more hawkishly near-term of late. SF Fed dove Williams speaks on (Wednesday), followed by Dallas Fed moderate Kaplan in a Q&A session. NY Fed dove Dudley discusses the economic history of New York from 19:45 ET. All three have mulled the likelihood of a hike before year-end and seem inclined to follow through, barring any extraordinary events beforehand. Dudley makes another appearance on the financial industry (Thursday). Governor Tarullo speaks (Friday), followed by Williams again.

Earnings will be important this week with many heavyweights slated to announce results. Including BoA, Netflix, IBM, (Monday) Goldman Sachs, Yahoo, Intel (Tuesday), Morgan Stanley, eBay (Wednesday) , Verizon, American Airlines, PayPal (Thursday) and GE and McDonald’s (Friday).

Canada: The Bank of Canada takes center stage this week, with the announcement and Monetary Policy Report (MPR) on tap for Wednesday. There is also manufacturing report (Tuesday) and CPI (Friday) is seen rising 0.2% m/m in September and 1.4% y/y growth pace in September from the 1.1% rate of gain in August.

Europe: The focus this week will be on the ECB meeting (Thursday). The data calendar, s pretty empty. Final Eurozone HICP inflation for September is likely to be confirmed at 0.4% y/y. German September PPI inflation is also likely to see rates moving up. Preliminary October Eurozone consumer confidence is expected to improve to -8.0 from -8.2 in September.

UK: The plunge in the pound, which has been likened to an emerging world currency in a research piece from Citi last week, looks likely to continue to drive underperformance in UK sovereign debt given the risk of higher inflation. BoE Governor Carney appeared to make a verbal currency market intervention on Friday, saying that the central bank is “not indifferent” to forex levels. The helped give the pound a prop, though the impact was limited. September inflation data (Tuesday), headline CPI to tick up to a new cycle high of 0.9%. Core CPI is also seen rising to a new cycle peak, of 1.4% y/y, from 1.3%. Such a rise in CPI will be consistent with BoE projections. Monthly labour statistics are also up (Wednesday), where the rear-view unemployment measure for August is expected unchanged at 4.9%, which is the cycle low. Average weekly earnings in the three-months to August are expected rise 2.3% in the with-bonus figure, which would still be well above inflation.

China: Q3 GDP (Wednesday) is forecast to hold steady at the 6.7% y/y pace from Q2. Growth has been moderating for the last several quarters, and is down from 7.2% in Q4 2014. September industrial production (Wednesday) is expected to slip slightly to 6.2% y/y from 6.3% previously. September retail sales (Wednesday) are penciled in at a 10.6% y/y clip, unchanged from August. September fixed investment is also due Wednesday, expected unchanged at an 8.1% y/y rate. September loan growth and new yuan loans are tentatively due Monday, and are expected to post a 13.1% y/y clip from 13.0%, and CNY 1,050.0 bln from CNY 948.7 bln, respectively.

Japan: The August all-industry index (Wednesday) is seen edging up 0.2% m/m from up 0.3% previously. This would be a third monthly gain. Revised industrial production has been reported and has missed expectations.

Australia: Calendar has September employment (Thursday), expected to improve 15.0k after the 3.9k drop in August. The unemployment rate is seen rising to 5.7% in September from 5.6% in August. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes to the October meeting are due (Tuesday). Governor Lowe speaks (Tuesday) at Citi’s 8th Annual Australian & New Zealand Investment Conference in Sydney.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 20th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20 th OCTOBER 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved higher, as the Dollar strengthened in the wake of the last U.S. presidential debate. The weaker Yen helped to underpin Japanese markets and the most recent rise in oil prices is also helping to underpin investor demand. The front end WTI future has come off highs but is holding comfortably above USD 51 per barrel. In Europe the focus is on the ECB meeting and even if policy is likely to remain on hold today, Draghi will hope to keep his options sufficiently open to avoid a temper tantrum as markets focus on further stimulus beyond the current QE program, which ends in March next year. The European calendar also has U.K. retail sales, BoP and current account data from the Eurozone and Swiss trade data at the start of the session.

BOC Rate Decision: Governor Poloz said they actively discussed adding more monetary stimulus before deciding to leave the policy rate unchanged. He said the Governing Council “actively discussed the possibility of adding more monetary stimulus at this time, in order to return to the economy to full capacity.” Yet, they “identified a number of uncertainties in the current framework that are serving to widen the zone of balance within our risk-management framework.” Those uncertainties include “the macroeconomic effects of the new mortgage rates, the likely path of our exports; the impact of the federal government’s fiscal measures…and the effects on business confidence of the U.S. election.” The revelation that they “actively discussed” the possibility of adding more stimulus is not exactly a surprise. Given where the domestic and global economy currently sit, expectations are that this will continued to be discussed but with the same result (no change in rates) to be the same.

Poor Australian Labour Data: The number of jobs fell last month by 9,800, expectations were for an increase of 15,200, also the previous month was revised down to a fall of 8,600 from a fall of 3,900. Fulltime employment for September showed a dramatic fall of 53,000 and August was revised down to 10,500 from 11,500. AUD/USD dropped from around 0.7725 to under 0.7700, spent a few minutes chopping in a small range before slipping further and its under 0.7665 currently. Just as doubts were raised after big employment gains in the past, doubts were raised on big employment losses on today’s figures, the -53K for full time jobs in the month result in particular was greeted with questions.

Fedspeak: Dallas Fed moderate (and non-voter) Kaplan sees inflation firming while GDP growth for 2016 will likely average 1.75%, sufficient to drive down unemployment and take some slack out of the labor force. He sees political uncertainty likely affecting capital spending, but once the election is out of the way focus needs to shift to entitlement reform and infrastructure spending. Kaplan also notes that the Fed needs to be “humble” about the limits of monetary policy. Fed’s Potter says the Fed should be prepared to sell MBS, in comments at a Minneapolis Fed conference. Potter is head of the Fed’s Markets Group, so he has a lot of authority behind his words. Though “current FOMC guidance states that the sale of agency MBS is not anticipated…it is prudent for the Desk to be prepared for a wide variety of scenarios, including sales or the need to purchase additional agency MBS.” The large size and structure of the agency MBS market makes it a “desirable choice for conduction operations of the magnitude necessary t have a meaningful impact on financial and macroeconomic conditions.” However, the Fed’s experience with selling MBS is much more limited than purchasing agency paper, he noted. The Fed’s portfolio and possible manipulations of such has been in the news lately, especially after a “twist” operation was broached by Boston Fed’s Rosengren last week.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Rate Announcement & Press Conference – Even if the ECB more likely to postpone any major decisions until December Draghi will be facing a difficult balancing act at today’s press conference, especially since a Reuters reported suggested that the planned tweaks to the asset purchase program designed to address looming supply shortages could already be discussed this week. At the same time, the question is whether the ECB will extend the QE program beyond March next year, when the current schedule of EUR 80 bln purchases per month is set to end. With growth indicators suggesting ongoing economic expansion and inflation starting to move higher, the ECB clearly is reluctant to add even more stimulus to an already very expansionary policy but the doves at the council will press for a follow up program with the end result likely a gradual phasing out of asset purchases. It will depend on Draghi’s delivery whether this will spook markets as the dreaded “tapering” or whether he can sell it as the further expansion of monetary policy it actually is. For now Draghi will be keeping all his options open and try to deliver a statement that keeps markets guessing and hoping and thus avoids a temper tantrum.

US Philly Fed Index – October Philly Fed should reveal a headline dip to 6.3 after the September bounce to 12.8 from 2.0 in August. The Empire State Index for October is already out and declined to -6.8 from -2.0 in September. Broadly, expectations are for producer sentiment to trend sideways in October with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures holding at 50 from August and September.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 21st October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st OCTOBER 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with Japanese bourses managing marginal gains as the Yen falls against the Dollar. Stock futures in the U.S. are down, but U.K. futures are slightly in positive territory after the UK100 managed to close with a marginal gain on Thursday. Eurozone bond and stock markets outperformed yesterday after Draghi managed to dampen tapering fears, while postponing any decisions on future policy to December. Bund futures moved sideways in after hour trade, and oil prices are falling towards USD 50 per barrel, which will dampen investor appetite but Eurozone markets are likely to continue outperforming their U.K. counterparts in the wake of Draghi’s statement yesterday. The data calendar is relatively quiet, with only U.K. public finance data, but the ECB’s survey of professional forecasts will give clues about the inflation outlook and comments from Weidmann may add a more hawkish spin to Draghi’s message yesterday. The GER30 is awaiting earnings reports from Daimler as positive numbers from SAP are underpinning the index ahead of the official open.

Kuroda Speech: BOJ will evaluate appropriate yield curve at every meeting, “ideal” can change depending on economy, not immediately thinking of lowering 80tln yen goal and possible to revise reaching 2% inflation time frame (currently target is for Inflation to hit 2% during 2017) !! He also reemphasized that “buying, selling FX is under the jurisdiction of the Finance Ministry”.

ECB – Decisions on QE Postponed until December: Nothing new from the ECB, with major decisions postponed, pretty much as we expected. While Draghi initially spooked markets by saying that an extension to the QE program hasn’t been discussed today, he still managed to keep investors happy in the end, by adding that an abrupt halt to asset purchases is unlikely. With the current program, which runs until March, confirmed at EUR 80 bln per month, this implies an extension of the asset purchase schedule, even if it may come at somewhat reduced levels.

US Data Reports: Revealed firm Philly Fed component data despite a small headline drop to 9.7 in October from a 19-month high of 12.8, alongside a 13k bounce in initial claims in the BLS survey week to a still respectable 260k that remains consistent with a remarkably lean 253k October average. We also saw a 3.2% September existing home sales rise to a 5.47 mln rate that beat estimates, alongside a 0.2% September leading indicators bounce that reversed a 0.2% August drop. The monthly data appear poised for an upturn into Q4, as the bounce in oil prices is allowing a mining and factory output recovery just as the big six-quarter inventory headwind comes to a close.

Main Macro Events Today

Canada Retail Sales – Retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% in August after the 0.1% dip in July. The ex-autos sales aggregate is seen expanding 0.4% in August following the 0.1% dip in July. Gasoline prices dipped just 0.9% in August after the 5.6% plunge in July, according to the CPI . Hence we should see the gasoline station sales component exert a very slight drag on total and ex-autos sales. Vehicle sales downshifted to a slower pace in July, and that modest slowing persisted in August according to industry sales figures. Sales volumes grew 0.3% in July, suggestive of some awaking in the consumer after spending declines from March to June.

Canada CPI – CPI is also expected to rise 0.2% m/m in September after the 0.2% drop in August. Total CPI is seen accelerating to a 1.4% y/y pace in September from the 1.1% rate in August. A pick-up in gasoline prices is expected to drive the gain in total CPI during September relative to August, contrasting with the hefty gasoline price declines that were a drag on total CPI in July and August. The Bank of Canada’s core CPI is seen rising 0.2% m/m in September after the flat reading in August, leaving a 1.8% y/y pace that is identical to the growth rate in in August.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 26th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th OCTOBER 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly down, with Japan a notable outperforming (closing up and indices holding on to modest gains as the Yen continued to decline against the Dollar. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also heading south as oil prices are down and the front end WTI future is trading below USD 50 per barrel, which has been hitting energy producers. Investors continue to watch earnings reports. ECB’s Draghi once again defended the ECB’s policy in a speech in Germany yesterday evening, while once again calling for support from the fiscal side. Nothing new there that would change the policy outlook.

German GfK consumer confidence: Dropped to 9.7 in November, from 10.0 in October. There is no breakdown for the November projections but the fall back was unexpected and disappointing, especially after the stronger than expected Ifo and PMI readings this week. The breakdown for October showed a marked improvement in business cycle expectations, which jumped to 13.0 from 6.8, the highest reading since June, which suggests that the Brexit shock was short lived. Despite this income expectations declined sharply as did the willingness to buy, although the willingness to save also slumped amid the low interest rate environment. Mixed messages then and at least in Germany it seems Draghi’s policy of easy money is not lifting consumption.

Australian CPI: The Australian dollar rallied following an above-forecast headline in Australian Q3 CPI, which rose 0.7% q/q, above the median expectation for a 0.5% rise. Most expect this should keep the RBA, which had cited concerns about disinflation as prime reasons for cutting rates in May and August this year, from any temptation to cut rates at its policy meeting next week. Core inflation painted a more benign picture, remaining unchanged at 1.5% y/y. AUDUSD lifted to a one-week high at 0.7708, which was a gain of just over 1%, before settling around 0.7690.

US Data reports: Revealed a larger than expected consumer confidence drop to 98.6 in October from a 103.5 (was 104.1) September figure that now sits marginally below the 103.8 cycle-high in January of 2015, alongside a Richmond Fed rise to -4.0 from -8.0 in September and a 3-year low of -11.0 August. We also saw big gains in two August home price indicators of 0.4% for Case-Shiller and 0.7% for the FHFA. The ISM-adjusted Richmond Fed rose to 51.5 from 50.8 in September and a 43-month low of 49.7 in August, as we’re seeing a renewed uptrend in producer sentiment with the bounce in oil prices and a recovery in mining and factory output as the big six-quarter inventory headwind reverses course. Confidence faces a headwind from the November elections, though we have an ongoing lift from low gasoline prices, stock market and home price gains, and an expected GDP bounce after a three-quarter string of lean 1% growth rates through Q2.

Main Macro Events Today

US Flash Services PMI – Expectations are for a slight uptick to 52.4 from a positively revised 52.3 last time.

US New Home Sales – New home sales are expected to decrease 1.5% to a 600k unit pace in September from 609k in August. Forecast risk: upward, given the higher NAHB for the month. Market risk: downward, as a run of weak data could impact the path of further rate hikes.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 27th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th OCTOBER 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed broadly lower, as investors remain focused on the earnings season, with Canon Inc. the biggest drag on the index. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down, following on from losses yesterday. Oil prices are up from lows, but the front end WTI (USOil) futures remains firmly below USD 50 per barrel, as U.S. East and Gulf coast stockpiles rose and the country’s production picked up. In Europe Deutsche Bank reports earnings today and the calendar has U.K. Q3 GDP growth data, which is expected to show a sharp deceleration in the quarterly growth rate to 0.3%. The Eurozone has M3 money supply growth and Italian consumer and business confidence data. Elsewhere Norges Bank is expected to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 0.50%. Core European bond futures declined in tandem with stock markets yesterday, as the focus remains on the U.S. rate outlook and the U.S. Presidential Election.

US Earnings – the busiest day : Earnings will remain the focal point again today with several more heavy hitters on tap. The calendar features Alphabet, Amazon, Twitter, Amgen, Baidu, Dow Chemical, Dr Pepper Snapple, Ford Motor, Aetna, Blackstone, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Brunswick, ConocoPhillips, Celgene, Raytheon, Expedia, Choice Hotels, Colgate-Palmolive, VW, Deckers, Hanesbrands, HealthSouth, LinkedIn, MGM Resorts, Nokia, Samsung Electronics, SolarCity, and Stanley Black & Decker.

US Data reports: Revealed big upside September surprises in the advance indicator report for the trade deficit and inventories alongside a 3.1% September new home sales rise that unfortunately followed big downward revisions over the prior three months that trimmed the summer sales spike. The trade and inventory surprises lifted Q3 GDP growth estimates sharply to 3.3% from 2.5%, though there were reductions in Q4 GDP growth to 2.0% from 2.5% as the expected Q4 inventory bounce was “pulled forward” into September. Expectations are now for a September drop in the goods and services trade gap to $36.5 bln from $40.7 bln in August. Also a 0.2% September business inventory increase that incorporates yesterday’s gains of 0.2% for wholesalers and 0.3% for retailers, alongside an assumed 0.1% factory inventory rise.

Germany’s Schaeuble: U.K. can’t have Brexit “A La Carte”. Nothing really new there, with the German finance minister repeating again that single market membership requires the acceptance of the EU’s four freedoms. He also said that the EU can’t show much flexibility, which confirms again that boths sides are heading for a hard Brexit scenario and Schaeuble’s hope that the economic damage for the EU and the U.K should be kept to a minimum, may be hard to achieve.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Prelim GDP – The first post Brexit quarterly reading. So far cable has pivoted around 1.2200, since the flash crash on October 7th. Announcement watched eagerly in Downing Street and at the BOE. Expectations are for a q/q figure of 0.3%. Last time 0.5% and the subsequently revised up to 0.7%.

US Core Durable Goods – September figure is seen as edging up 0.2%, after August’s revised 0.1% increase.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 31st October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st OCTOBER 2016.



FX News Today

FBI’s Comey dropped a bombshell on the markets late Friday as he announced the agency would be reviving the Clinton email probe after learning, via a separate investigation, of the existence of apparently “pertinent” messages on a PC owned by Anthony Weiner (estranged husband of Clinton advisor Huma Abedin). In his letter, Comey reportedly told key members of Congress that his agency should take “appropriate investigative steps.” Wall Street dropped on the news, though a bounce in Biotech and Pharma shares (on the hot seat under Clinton) helped the Dow recover toward unchanged levels. The Mexican peso, the de facto election barometer, was the main casualty of the news, plunging 1.4% before closing 0.9% lower. Concurrently, bond yields closed modestly lower on short covering and risk aversion. This heightened uncertainty will make for an extraordinary run up to the November 8 election.

United States: The FOMC (Tuesday, Wednesday) will be a point of interest for the markets this week, but not quite the center of attention it usually is. The pick-up in Advance Q3 GDP to 2.9% helped clear the way for a hike in December, and implied futures were suggesting about a 75-80% probability — the November 1, 2 FOMC was never really in the running due to the election. Other data this week will have more relevance for how the markets set up for the December policy decision. Remember, the onus is on the data to keep the Fed sidelined at year end. Personal income (Monday) and PCE. Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed index (Tuesday) and construction spending. MBA mortgage applications are on tap (Wednesday), along with the ADP employment survey set to increase 160k in October. Q3 productivity (Thursday) along with. Initial jobless claims, ISM services and factory goods orders. The employment report will highlight on Friday, with October nonfarm payrolls expected to increase by 174k vs 156k in September, with a 160k private payroll gain. The unemployment rate is expected to tick back down to 4.9% from 5.0% in September. The workweek is expected to hold at 34.4 for a second month. Hourly earnings are expected to be up 0.2% which would leave a 2.5% y/y rise. Hours-worked should be 0.1% for the month following a 0.4% increase last month.

The Q3 earnings announcements continue this week. So far, most of the S&P companies which have announced have beaten estimates. This week includes Electronic Arts, Pfizer, Alibaba, Allergan, Facebook, Fitbit, Time Warner, Kraft Heinz, Adidas, Liberty Global, Starbucks and BMW.

Canada: A heavy slate of economic data this week: The industrial product price index (Monday), GDP (Tuesday), Employment (Friday) is projected to fall 15.0k in October, but after the stunning 67.2k surge in September. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 7.0%. The trade deficit also (Friday) is expected to narrow to -C$1.8 bln in September from -C$1.9 bln in August, as Canada’s trade position continues to gradually improve. The October RBC manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) and October Ivey PMI (Friday) are also due.

Europe: Preliminary Eurozone Q3 GDP numbers and October inflation data will be in focus this week, which together with the final readings for October PMI surveys, will add to the data mix that could prove decisive for the ECB December decision on future QE purchases. Preliminary Eurozone HICP inflation (Monday) meanwhile is seen accelerating to 0.5% y/y.The data calendar also has unemployment numbers from Germany for October, (Wednesday). Eurozone September unemployment (Thursday) is seen steady at 10.2%. German retail sales and French production data are also on the slate.

UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee meets for the first time since September (announcing Thursday), and the central bank will at the same time release the latest Quarterly Inflation Report with updated growth and inflation projections. While last week brought some good news, including the solid Q3 GDP report and news that Nissan will remain committed to its manufacturing operations in Brexit-bound Britain, the outlook remains clouded by uncertainty. S&P affirmed its AA credit rating for the UK late on Friday, although the agency maintained its negative outlook and warned that Brexit “presents a significant risk to the UK’s track record of strong economic performance, and to its large financial sector in particular.” The UK data calendar is also busy this week. Monthly BoE lending data (Monday) should see lending stabilize. The October PMI surveys highlight. The manufacturing PMI release (Tuesday), the construction PMI (Wednesday) and the services PMI (Thursday). Outcomes in-line with expectations would affirm that the economy is continuing to expand in early Q4.

China: The only reports are the services and manufacturing PMI measures (both Tuesday).

Japan: The BoJ meeting (Monday, Tuesday) will be anxiously awaited amid policy uncertainties. While Governor Kuroda and Company are not expected to reveal any changes to the QE program, the markets will be watching for any shift to the Bank’s timeline for hitting its inflation goal of 2%. Data wise September preliminary industrial production, Retail sales , housing starts, construction orders and auto sales are all published (Monday). The Nikkei/Markit October manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) is forecast at 48.0 from 48.2 previously. October consumer confidence (Wednesday) is forecast at 42.5 from 43.0 previously, while October services PMI is due Friday. The markets are closed for a holiday Thursday.

Australia: The calendar is highlighted Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday), expected to result in no change to the current 1.50% setting for the policy rate. Building approvals (Wednesday), the trade deficit (Thursday), Retail sales (Friday) and finally the October Melbourne Institute inflation index (Monday) is also scheduled for release.





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 1st November 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st November 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japanese markets fluctuating and closed with slight gains after the BoJ left rates unchanged, but lowered the inflation outlook. The Hang Seng is outperforming and mainland Chinese markets are also underpinned, after the official manufacturing PMI improved. The ASX underperformed as AUD strengthened and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher. Oil prices are up from lows, but the front end WTI future is just above USD 47 per barrel and clearly down from recent highs, amid the lack of an OPEC output deal. In Europe trade is likely to be quieter than usual, with a public holiday in some European countries, including parts of Germany. This will delay the release of final EMU manufacturing PMI numbers until tomorrow, while Switzerland and the U.K. will publish manufacturing PMI data today.

The BoJ left policy unchanged following the conclusion of its latest policy meeting, as had been widely expected. This left the interest rate at -0.1% and QQE unchanged at Y80 tln per year. The central bank also pushed back, once again, the time when it expects inflation to reach the 2% target, now projecting this to happen “around fiscal 2018.” Previously the BoJ had forecast inflation returning to target by the end of fiscal 2017, which ends in March 2018. The ellusive target was first introduced in 2013. Headline core CPI fell to -0.5% y/y in October, while the so-called “core-core” CPI figure was flat y/y, a three-year low and highlighting sluggish consumer demand. The central bank also trimmed its inflation forecasts today, now seeing core CPI at 1.5% in 2017 versus 1.7% previously. On the economy, the BoJ said that the economy would continue to expand moderately, but noted that households haven’t been spending increased income and that the risks to the outlook were skewed to the downside.

FX Update: The Aussie dollar was the standout performing, rallying on the RBA’s decision to leave policy unchanged. AUD-USD and AUD-JPY are registering the biggest movement out of the currencies we track, showing respective gains of 0.7% and 0.8% into the London interbank open. Australia’s weak core inflation data had fed some speculation that the RBA might have opted to make a third rate cut of the year. But the antipodean central bank stood pat and Governor Lowe’s statement was upbeat in outlook, noting that “over the next year, the economy is forecast to grow at close to its potential rate before gradually strengthening” with inflation “expected to pick up gradually over the next two years.” AUDUSD clocked a six-day high at 0.7688 while AUDJPY broke into three-month high terrain. Stronger than expected October manufacturing PMI surveys out of China, with the Caixin version reaching its best level since August 2011, also lifted the Aussie. Elsewhere, currencies generally saw narrow ranges. Cable consolidated gains seen into the London close yesterday, holding around 1.2220-30. EURUSD continued to narrowly orbit the 1.0950 level. USDJPY popped moderately higher after the expected decision by the BoJ to leave policy unchanged with the central bank lowering CPI forecasts and yet again pushing back the time it expects the 2% target to be reached.

US Data reports: Mixed. We saw a moderate 0.3% September personal income gain, but with a solid 0.5% consumption rise, alongside divergent October swings for the Chicago PMI and the Dallas Fed that left both measures below prior estimates. We saw a Chicago PMI drop to a 5-month low of 50.6 from 54.2, and a rise for the Dallas Fed to a still-negative -1.5 in October from -3.7. We saw an ISM-adjusted Dallas Fed drop to 49.6 from 51.2 in October and 50.7 in September.

Carney to stay and extra 12 months: BoE’s Carney will stay on another year, taking his term beyond the expected Article 50 process in order to help secure an orderly transition. This followed a meeting yesterday with PM May, the UK Finance Minister Hammond says he’s “very pleased” to hear that Carney intends to stay until the end of June 2019.

Main Macro Events Today

US manufacturing ISM – The October ISM should reveal a headline increase to 51.7 from 51.5 in September and 49.4 in August. Already released measures of sentiment for October have revealed headline declines. More broadly we expect sentiment to improve in October with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures climbing to 51 after two months at 50 as inventory headwinds dissipate and the mining sector rebounds.

Canada GDP – Expectations are for a 0.2% rise in September GDP. The modest gain would follow the back to back surges in August (+0.5%) and July (+0.6%), as the economy, or more specifically oil sands production in the Fort McMurray region, rebounded from the wildfires that shuttered production in May (when GDP fell 0.6%). The energy sector saw continued growth in September, as export volumes grew and higher volumes boosted manufacturing production.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 1st December 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st December 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: A jump in oil prices following yesterday’s OPEC deal on output cuts and a stronger than expected manufacturing PMI reading out of China underpinned broad gains on Asian stock markets overnight. The front end WTI future cleared the USD 50 per barrel mark, but while the oil price induced rally already helped European markets to post gains Wednesday, it seems to be running out of steam with U.S. stock futures down on the day in tandem with U.K. stock futures. Concerns about a new wave of global protectionism seems to be adding to concerns. The rise in oil prices should keep upward pressure on yields, although if equities head south again, we could see futures regaining some of yesterday’s losses. Italian markets will remain in focus as the referendum on constitutional reforms draws nearer. The European calendar has the final reading for the Eurozone manufacturing PMI, as well as Eurozone unemployment numbers and the U.K. manufacturing PMI for November.

US Reports Yesterday: Very solid personal income, ADP, and Chicago PMI figures that further document accelerating activity. For income, we saw a firm 0.6% October rise, with a lean 0.3% consumption increase but with the expected 0.1% “real” gain thanks to a lean 0.2% PCE chain price rise. We saw skewing of Q3 income and consumption strength toward September that lifted the entry to Q4, beyond the expected upward income revisions in Q2 and Q3, and Q3 consumption boosts. We lifted our consumption estimates, though we still peg Q4 GDP growth at 1.8%. A 216k November ADP rise beat our 180k estimate for private payrolls with a 190k total payroll increase, though we saw a big 28k downward October ADP revision to 119k from 147k that left a downside gap to the 142k private payroll increase in that month. We saw a November Chicago PMI surge to a 22-month high of 57.6 to leave a robust level as producer sentiment extends its uptrend. We expect a 190k rise in November payrolls tomorrow.

Canada’s Growth Ticks Up: Canada’s 3.5% GDP rebound in Q3 was accompanied by the anticipated bounce back in energy production, but was joined by acceleration in the pace of consumption spending, a surge in investment on non-residential structures and a positive contribution from inventories. A 0.3% gain in September GDP left a strong hand-off to Q4. The reports also imparted a mildly positive tilt to the outlook for 2016 and 2017 growth, adding to the case for no change from the Bank of Canada at the December announcement.

Fedspeak: Cleveland Fed hawk Mester said the “devil will be in the details” in terms of fiscal, trade and immigration policies of the next administration with respect to inflation and employment, but raising rates would be a prudent step for the Fed as postponing hikes for too long would raise risks of recession and financial instability. She feels the Fed meanwhile “is not behind the curve.” Mester has been a hawkish dissenter against policy status quo and has been arguing for pre-emptive rate hikes for a while, so this won’t come as a surprise. Fed Governor Powell; communications should downplay the timing of rate moves, he said in prepared remarks at an “Understanding Fedspeak” event. Focusing on the potential timing of changes can lead to confusion. Rather, communications should emphasize the uncertainty over forecasts. On the dot plot, he noted that while changes in the plot might reveal changes in views on the policy path, it’s not a useful predictor of near term rate action. In conclusion, he said policymakers communicate a lot more these days; some of the comments are designed to express the consensus, while some is designed to show the diversity of views.

Main Macro Events Today

US ISM Manufacturing PMI – The October ISM is expected to rise to 52.5 from 51.9 in October. Forecast risk: upward, given strong components in early month sentiment. Market risk: downward, as weakening in data could impact rate hike timelines. The ISM has shown a recent high of 59.9 in February ’11 and a low of 33.1 in December of 2008.

Canada 3Q GDP – Real Q3 GDP is expected to rebound 3.4% in the report due today after the 1.6% drop in Q2. A bounce-back in real net exports is seen driving the pick-up. Consumption growth is seen slowing, while M&E investment should manage another small gain. Inventories are the usual wildcard, projected to modestly subtract from GDP. Meanwhile, September GDP by industry is seen up 0.1% m/m, leaving a tepid hand-off to Q4. Moreover, the Q3 surge will be driven by a return to production and activity in the Forth McMurray region after the wildfire temporarily halted production in Q2.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 5th December 2016.

THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD.



Main Macro Events This Week

United States: The November services data, along with trade and sentiment data will headline a thin economic slate. The nonmanufacturing ISM (Monday) is projected to rise to 55.5 after falling 2.3 points to 54.8 in October. The Markit services PMI is also slated (Monday). The October international trade report (Tuesday) is seen posting a wider $42.4 bln deficit. The December preliminary consumer sentiment release (Friday) should show an increase to 94.5 after popping up to 93.8 in November, further reflecting Trump enthusiasm. Productivity growth (Tuesday) is forecast to be unchanged at a 3.1% pace, while unit labor costs hold at 0.3%. The October JOLTS data (Wednesday) would typically be important, as it’s a Yellen favorite, but with the Fed a done deal next week, it will be overlooked. The quarterly QSS release (Thursday) will be of some importance for the GDP outlook as it’s an update on the service sector. Other data this week includes the Fed’s November Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) (Monday), October factory orders (Tuesday), October consumer credit (Wednesday), initial jobless claims (Thursday), and October wholesale trade. Fedspeak will be compressed to Monday this week heading into the Fed’s blackout window for the December 14 FOMC decision. On Saturday, NY Fed dove Dudley confined his remarks to regulation. He will be back up again on Monday discussing the macroeconomic outlook. Chicago Fed dove Evans will speak on the current economic outlook and policy. St. Louis Fed hawk-dove Bullard will discuss the economy and policy as well.

Canada: the Bank of Canada’s policy announcement (Wednesday) is the focus. No change in the current 0.50% rate setting is expected but a tempering of the easing bias is possible. Projections are also for no change in rates through next year. Data is headlined by the October trade report (Tuesday), with the deficit expected to narrow to -C$2.0 bln from -C$4.1 bln. The Ivey PMI (Tuesday) is projected to be nearly steady at 60.0 in November from 59.7 in October. Housing starts (Thursday) are seen slipping to 190.0k in November from 192.9k in October. Building permit values (Thursday) are anticipated to decline 1.0% in October after tumbling 7.0% in September. Capacity utilization (Thursday) is projected to rebound to 81.5% in Q3 as the economy recovered, following the plunge to 80.0% in Q2 that was driven by the Alberta-wildfire-related pull-back in GDP. Capacity utilization was 81.4% in Q1. The October new housing price index (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.2% m/m in October after the matching 0.2% increase in September

Europe: The ECB is the focus this week. The Bank not only has to deal with the immediate fallout from the Italian referendum, but most importantly, it will be deciding on the future of the QE program, which currently runs out in March. News sources suggested that many on the Committee favor another 6-month extension at current levels. The calendar will play a secondary role, although German manufacturing order numbers (Tuesday) will be interesting and are likely to be watched closely by central bankers. Similarly, industrial production for October (Wednesday) is expected to rebound 0.9% m/m after falling -1.8% m/m in September. Data broadly in line with expectations would confirm what confidence indicators already suggested, that growth is likely to pick up again in the last quarter of the year. The same holds for Eurozone October retail sales (Monday), which are seen at 0.8% m/m.

The November Services PMI (Monday) is likely to be confirmed at 55.0. And, against these up-to-date numbers, the third release of Eurozone Q3 GDP (Tuesday) will be rather backward looking. The data calendar also has German trade numbers (Friday) and French production data Friday).

UK: Sterling closed out last week on strong footing with an average 0.6% advance versus the G3 currencies on the day and an average gain of 1.6% on the week. The calendar includes an expected ruling by the Supreme Court on Thursday on the government’s challenge to the issue of whether it has to put the decision to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty before parliament. Data include the November services PMI (Monday), which is expected to ebb to a headline reading of 54.2) after October’s 54.5. Like the manufacturing and construction PMIs have already shown, the November PMI should reveal a spike in cost pressures as the consequence of sterling’s weakness post-Brexit vote start to bite. Production data for October is also up (Wednesday), where we see scope for a rebound in the industrial output figure, to +0.2% m/m after September’s 0.4% m/m contraction. Trade data and various house price indicators are also out, none of which is expected to move markets.

China: The November trade surplus (Thursday) is expected to narrow to $45.0 bln from $49.1 bln in October. Friday brings November CPI and PPI, where the former is seen warming to 2.3% y/y from 2.1%, and the latter expected at 2.5% y/y from 1.2%.

Japan: The October current account surplus (Thursday) is seen narrowing to JPY 1,600.0 bln from 1,821.0 bln in September. November bank loan data are also due Thursday. The Q4 MoF business outlook survey (Friday) is expected to fall to 2.0 from 2.9 in November.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia meeting (Tuesday) is the highlight. No change to the current 1.50% rate setting is the expected outcome. The bank cut rates in May and August to counter a firming AUD. The slate of economic data is highlighted by Q3 GDP (Wednesday), projected to expand 0.4% (q/q, sa) after the 0.5% gain in Q2. The current account deficit (Tuesday) is seen at -A$14.5 bln after the -A$15.5 bln shortfall in Q2. The trade deficit (Thursday) is anticipated at -A$1.0 bln in October from -A$1.2 bln in September. Housing finance (Friday) is seen falling 1.0% in October after the 1.6% run-up in September.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 6th December 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th December 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets managed to move mostly higher, after gains in Europe and on Wall Street yesterday. The Italian MIB closed with slight losses Monday, but it seems investors quickly got over the widely expected rejection of Italy’s constitutional reform and Renzi’s resignation. Italy may once again have to look for a new government, but that is hardly anything new in a country where it is extremely rare for a government to last full term Italy is hardly heading for an exit from the EU, even if EMU membership is under scrutiny in some quarters, but the problems of Italy’s banks will likely come back to the forefront and keep pressure on Italian markets, which actually managed to outperform in the last week ahead of the referendum. Still, U.S. and European stock futures are heading south this morning, and oil prices are down. The European calendar has German factory orders at the start of the session, which are expected to rebound from the contraction in September. There is also the final and detailed reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP and Swiss inflation data. Already released overnight, U.K. BRC like for like retail sales came in weaker than expected.

RBA Rates left unchanged: Cash rates remain on hold at 1.5% as expected. “Rising AUD could complicate economic transition” Steady policy consistent with growth and inflation targets, global economy growing at a slower rate but Chinese economy has “Steadied”. Large supply of apartments to hit housing market (where prices are rising “briskly”) in the next few years. Global inflation more balanced than for “some time”. Labour market conditions have improved and commodity prices have risen. However, outlook for inflation remains “low for some time”. AUD unchanged following announcement and statement. RBA next meet February 8.

US Reports Yesterday: The U.S. ISM-NMI bounce to a 1-year high of 57.2 from 54.8 in October, but a similar 57.1 in September, left the measure much closer to the 10-year high of 59.6 in July of 2015 than the 6-year low of 51.4 in August. The ISM-adjusted ISM-NMI bounced less sharply, to 56.1 from 54.2 in October, versus an 8-month high of 56.3 in June, a 10-year high of 59.0 in July of 2015, and a 6-year low of 50.7 in August. The ISM-adjusted average of the major producer sentiment surveys surged to a 16-month high of 53 from 51 in October and 50 in August and September. We saw a 49 expansion-low in January and February, and previously in October of 2012. The employment gauge surged to a 1-year high of 58.2 from 53.1.

FedSpeak: St. Louis Fed hawk-dove Bullard: new tax, fiscal and regulatory policies in Washington could make the U.S. a higher-speed economy if they improve productivity. But any such policy changes should not be viewed as needed stimulus since the economy is not in recession. The impact on current low-growth, low interest rate regime depends on proper execution and focus on productivity improvements. Absent such changes, he’s still sticking with his one-rate-hike-only call to reach neutral policy, which is appropriate since inflation and unemployment are close to target. But this appears to give him an exit strategy if the fiscal outlook changes significantly. Dudley of NY Fed on CNBC: it’s premature to take on board market views of fiscal expansion, he said, but if fiscal policy got more expansive, the Fed would probably remove accommodation more quickly. But it depends on the specifics of any fiscal stimulus, which is as yet unknown. He’s essentially echoing his earlier speech on the economic outlook and he’s generally pleased that there has been an uptick in wages and inflation, which was the goal. Dudley notes that there will be lags in implementing any fiscal legislation, however, and any Fed policy adjustments as a result will be out over the horizon. Overall, he sees “downside risks to the economy reduced.” Dodd-Frank is not perfect, so changes are appropriate, but essential ingredients on capital requirements, etc. should remain. He also sees the rising dollar as consistent with expectations about growth. He is making a bid for automatic fiscal stabilizers again as well. Evans: we’re on cusp of period of rising rates, said the dovish Chicago Fed president, and he expects inflation to move “more solidly” toward the Fed’s 2% target. He said the state of demand in the U.S. is really quite good, growth should continue and with unemployment at 4.6% you don’t need explicit infrastructure stimulus. Evans echoed Dudley, saying we need to have patience to assess what the new administration’s policies will be, though policies under discussion could reinforce the U.S. growth trajectory. This is more optimistic on the growth front for Evans, therefore slightly more hawkish by implication.

Main Macro Events Today

EUR Gross Domestic Product – Year on Year Eurozone area GDP is out later this morning and it is expected to remain unchanged at 1.6% with Month on month GDP also unchanged at 0.3%.

US Factory Orders – October factory goods data is out later today and should reveal a 2.6 increase for the headline with shipments up 0.3% and inventories up 0.2%. This follows respective September figures which had orders up 0.7%, sales up 0.9% and inventories up 0.1%. Data in line with forecasts would leave the I/S ratio unchanged from September’s 1.34.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.