Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 7th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th September 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japan closing down (-0.41% at 17,012) as the Yen strengthened on media reports casting doubt on the BoJ’s willingness to add further easing. The ASX, which underperformed yesterday, moved higher as the Aussie weakened as growth slowed down in the second quarter. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are posting gains, pointing to opening gains, on stock markets, after yesterday’s broad move south in late trade. Bund and Gilt futures moved higher yesterday, with Bunds outperforming and Eurozone spreads narrowing going into tomorrow’s ECB meeting. The weak German production figures (see below) will only add to the Bund move. The European calendar has U.K. production data for July, seen falling -0.1%. The Swedish Riksbank meeting will be watched carefully as a precursor to tomorrow’s ECB meeting and the central bank are likely to keep the Repo rate steady at -0.5%.

FX Summary: The dollar has continued to ebb as Fed expectations cycled back towards the no-case-for-a-September hike following weaker than expected ISM services and LMCI data yesterday, which resonated with the sub-forecast jobs report on Friday. USD-JPY, which has continued to pace broader dollar declines, descended for a third straight session, logging a 12-day low at 101.19 as it extended losses from Friday’s peak at 104.32. The pair has breached below the 20-day moving average, at 101.55, which now reverts as resistance, ahead of 101.93-95 and the 50-day moving average at 102.66. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also fell, causing some indigestion on the Tokyo stock exchange, where the Nikkei 225 closed with a 0.4% loss, underperforming regional peers. Elsewhere, dollar softness saw EUR-USD and AUD-USD edge out respective 12-day highs at 1.1264 and 0.7688. Cable settled slightly below the eight-week peak it saw yesterday, at 1.3445.

Fedspeak: San Francisco Fed President John Williams: Low level of long-term yields is not just because of fed policy, a ‘reasonable person’ would expect US rates to rise gradually over time. Makes sense to raise rates “sooner rather than later” Inflation expected to rise to 2% in next two years and unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% over the next twelve months. Now is the time to consider new inflation target and “actively study new policy options”.

German July industrial production dropped -1.5%: A much more pronounced decline than even we expected and our forecast for a -0.4% m/m drop was already far below consensus, with Bloomberg predicting a 0.1% m/m rise. In fact this was the steepest decline in almost 2 years. June was revised up, but this didn’t prevent the annual rate to drop into negative territory in July. The correction may partly reflect the usual volatility over the summer, as school holidays in Germany are staggered throughout the states and differently timed every year, which means different timings for the industrial rich states can distort data. Still, with the orders trend also disappointing, and manufacturing sentiment coming off, the data adds to signs that the German economy is cooling.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Inflation Report – 09:00 GMT – Governor Carney and members of the MPC testify before the UK Parliaments Treasury Committee (for approximately 2 hours). Expect some tough questioning from the members as some perceive the BOE’s actions inappropriate, this will be vigorously defended by the Governor and volatility for GBP pairs can be expected.

BOC Rate Statement – 14:00 GMT – The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates steady at 0.50%. The cautiously optimistic outlook on growth and inflation is expected to remain, as the Q2 GDP report was consistent with an expected rebound in Q3 GDP.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 12th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th September 2016.



Main Macro Events Today

United States: This week’s U.S. calendar includes several interesting releases that could have some bearing on the Fed’s decision on September 21. The Treasury budget deficit (Tuesday) is forecast to ease to -$98.0 bln in August from -$112.8 bln in July,. The MBA mortgage market applications survey is due (Wednesday), along with import prices seen unchanged and export prices -0.1% in August, while there may be an EIA inventory correction from huge storm-related draws last week that bolstered crude oil above $47 bbl before the boom went bust Friday. On tap next is August retail sales (Thursday), forecast to rise 0.2% or 0.3% ex-auto, with a downward bias given weak auto sales and mixed employment. Also due is August PPI, expected to rise just 0.1% headline and 0.2% core. The Philly Fed index is set to rebound to 3.0 in September vs 2.0, whereas the Empire State may rise to -1.0 in September vs -4.2. Initial jobless claims are projected to snap back 11k to 270k), with August industrial production to shrink 0.5% vs 0.7% and capacity use dipping to 75.5% from 75.9%. Business inventories are forecast to fall 0.1% in July vs 0.2%. August CPI is seen rising 0.1% headline (Friday) and 0.2% core, while September Michigan sentiment (preliminary) rises to 90.5 from 89.8 in August.

Canada: Economic data is highlighted by manufacturing (Friday), which is expected to reveal a 1.0% gain in shipment values during July following the 0.8% gain in June. The August existing home sales report (Thursday) and the August Teranet/National Bank HPI (Wednesday) also feature. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins (Wednesday) will present a lecture at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London.

Europe: After the initial confidence data following the Brexit referendum looked surprisingly upbeat, the August round was disappointing and markets will be watching the German September ZEW release (Tuesday) closely. We are looking for an improvement to 3.0 from 0.5 in the previous month, which would mean the number of those optimistic about the outlook continued to rise. The rest of the week’s data calendar focuses mostly on final inflation readings for August, with the German HICP (Tuesday) expected to be confirmed at 0.3%, the Spanish (Tuesday) at -0.3%, the French (Wednesday) at 0.4% y/y and the Italian (Wednesday) at -0.3% y/y, which should leave the overall Eurozone number on Thursday unrevised from the preliminary reading at 0.2% y/y. Even core inflation at 0.8% y/y remains far below the ECB’s definition of price stability. ECB President Draghi speaks at an award ceremony on Tuesday, although the central bank head is unlikely to add much to the central message conveyed at his September policy statement.

UK: The BoE meets on policy (announcing Thursday) for the third time since the vote to leave the EU in late June. Our view matches the strong consensus for a no-change announcement, which would leave the repo rate at 0.25%, adjacent to continuing QE operations that were detailed as part of August’s policy bazooka. Data on the calendar this week is highlighted by August inflation numbers (Tuesday), employment figures covering July and August (Wednesday), and official August retail sales (Thursday). We expect headline CPI to tick up to a cycle high of 0.7% y/y from 0.6% in July, and the core CPI reading to 1.4% form 1.3%, with the effects of post-Brexit vote weakness in sterling starting to impact. The laggard official unemployment rate for July is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%, as is the more timely claimant count rate, at 2.2%. Retail sales are seen dipping 0.2% m/m in August, correcting after the strong a July, when sales rose 1.4% m/m.

China: August foreign direct investment figures are tentatively due Monday, followed by August industrial production (Tuesday), which is expected to inch up to 6.1% y/y from 6.0% previously. August retail sales (Tuesday) are penciled in at 10.1% y/y from 10.2%. August fixed investment (Tuesday) is seen slowing to a 7.8% y/y clip from 8.1%.

Japan: The Q3 MoF business outlook survey (Tuesday) is expected to reveal deterioration to -13.0 from -11.1 in Q2. The all-industry index is reported as well. July revised industrial production (Wednesday) is seen unchanged at 0.0% y/y.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia fields three speakers this week. Assistant Governor, Economics, Kent delivers a speech at the Bloomberg Breakfast Address (Tuesday). Head of Payments Policy Department, Tony Richards, speaks at the 26th Annual Credit Law Conference (Wednesday). Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Guy Debelle takes the podium in London at the TradeTech FX Europe Conference (Wednesday). August employment (Thursday) is expected to improve 20.0k after the 26.2k rise in July. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.7% in August, identical to the 5.7% seen in July.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 19th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th September 2016.



FX News Today

Central banks are in the spotlight this week, with the focus on the FOMC and BoJ. And the likely divergent policy outcomes will be key for market direction heading into Q4. With some policymakers starting to doubt the effectiveness of the low and negative rate structures, there’s increased uncertainty over just what will be announced, with the BoJ having perhaps the biggest opportunity to surprise with either its decisions on rates or QE purchases.

United States: The FOMC meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday) dominates the landscape. It is highly unlikely the FOMC will resume its rate hike regime this week give the disappointing data on jobs, retail sales, and manufacturing, amid a still low inflation environment. Indeed, Fed funds futures are suggesting a very low probability of less than 15%. A light data calendar will play second fiddle to the Fed. Housing reports will dominate. The September NAHB homebuilder survey leads off (Monday) and is expected to hold steady at 60. August housing starts (Tuesday) are projected falling to a 1.193 mln pace, after two consecutive monthly gains. Existing home sales (Thursday) should bounce 1.7% to a 5.480 mln. Weekly jobless claims, the August leaders index, the July FHFA home price index, and the KC Fed manufacturing survey are also due Thursday, with the preliminary Markit PMI manufacturing report on Friday.

Fedspeak will remain in blackout mode until Friday when Harker, Mester, Lockhart and Kaplan all have speaking engagements, however, it is unlikely anyone will break ranks and say much about policy the policy decision on Wednesday.

Canada: CPI and retails sales highlight the week’s slate of economic data, which also includes wholesale trade. Total CPI (Friday) is seen expanding at a 1.4% and The Bank of Canada’s core CPI measure is projected to moderate to 2.0%. Retail sales (Friday) are anticipated to rise 0.3% with the the ex-autos retail aggregate is expected to gain 0.6%. Wholesale shipments (Wednesday) are seen rising 0.2% in July. Bank of Canada governor Poloz speaks Tuesday in Quebec City, with a press conference to follow.

Europe: This week’s data calendar is the timely set of confidence indicators in the form of preliminary September PMI readings (Friday). Expectations are for a slight dip in the manufacturing PMI to 51.5 and an uptick in the services reading to 52.9, and thus leave the Composite PMI broadly stable at 52.8. Other data releases include Eurozone current account, as well as German producer price inflation, which is expected to continue to move up from lows, but to still remain firmly in negative territory.

UK: The calendar is pretty quiet this week, highlighted by the CBI industrial trends survey for September (Thursday), where the forecast is for an unchanged -5 reading in the headline total orders figure. Monthly government borrowing data is also up (Wednesday), as is the Rightmove house price index for September. Longer-term Brexit-related concerns have been sharpening over the last week, which culminated in sterling plunging on Friday. The pound finished the day with a 1.8% loss to the dollar and with an average decline of 1.4% against the G3 currencies.

China: There are no scheduled data releases from China this week.

Japan: is closed Monday for Respect-for-the Aged Day holiday, and again on Thursday for the Autumnal Equinox holiday, bookending the two-day BoJ meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday). The policy outcome is of considerable uncertainty and of much debate. Data will be of moderate consequence. The August trade report (Tuesday) should show a narrowing in the surplus to JPY 250.0 bln from the revised 513.6 bln in July. The July all-industry index (Friday) is expected to rise 0.3% m/m versus the June 1.0% increase.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes to the September meeting (Tuesday), when policymakers held rates steady at 1.50% and shifted to a more balanced policy bias (from a tilt toward further easing). There are no bank officials scheduled to speak this week. The data calendar is thin, with the just the Q2 house price index due (Tuesday).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 20th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20 September 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with some bourses swinging between gains and losses, as traders hold back ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC and BoJ announcements. The Nikkei closed down -0.16%. The bullish sentiment on European stock markets yesterday that was underpinned by hopes that the BoJ could add some stimulus and a pick up in oil prices, already fizzled out in the later U.S. session as the oil prices dipped again and with the front end WTI futures falling further today and threatening to fall below USD 43 per barrel, risk appetite has faded. U.S. stock futures are posting slight gains, but the FTSE 100 is down, suggesting that European markets are poised for a correction in catch up trade. The European calendar is virtually empty.

RBA Minutes: “Rising AUD would complicate rebalancing of the economy”, following slow down on mining investment. The decline in the AUD since 2013 has “continued to support traded sector of economy”. Cost pressures and wage growth set to remain low and little change expected in unemployment in coming months. “Economy growing in line with potential” and current stance on policy “consistent with growth and inflation targets”. Looks like its neutral for longer and same tone as other “data dependent” central banks. AUDUSD 0.7540 and capped by the 20 DMA.

German PPI: the German PPI for August missed expectations coming in at -0.1% (0.0% expected). Slightly softer than hoped and not good news for ECB. EURUSD remains in tight overnight range pivoting around 1.1170.

U.S. NAHB Homebuilder sentiment index jumped to 65 in September: This was up 6 points from 59 in August (revised down from 60 previously). It’s the highest since last October, which was also a 65 print, and was 61 a year ago. The 2016 range has been from 58 to 65, and over the past ten years has ranged from 65 to 34 over the past decade. The future sales index also rose to 71 from 66. The index of prospective buyer traffic improved to 48 from 44. All four regions posted gains, led by the West which soared to 82 from 68.

FX Update: All quiet on the forex front, with the main currency pairings having posted ultra narrow ranges as market participants remain on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow’s Fed and BoJ policy decisions. Consensus expectations are the Fed will refrain from easing, while there are some expectations that the BoJ to trim its -0.1% reserve deposit rate further into negative territory while skewing QQE purchases toward the shorter and middle parts of the maturity spectrum to facilitate curve steepening, with the aim of mitigating the negative effects the program has had on financial intermediation. 60% of respondents to a Reuters expected the BoJ to move this week, though there was some discord among those anticipating action in the extent of what the central bank will do. With the costs and benefits of the three-year old QQE program fading, many expect a shift in policy focus to interest rates and NIRP. How markets react is a tough call, though we think the risks for USD-JPY are to the downside. Past BoJ easing measures in the Abenomics era have generally failed to weaken the yen, and the central bank would have to be aggressive if it wants a weaker currency.

Main Macro Events Today

BOJ Outlook – The two day meeting started earlier today and the announcement and press conference are scheduled for 03:00 GMT on Wednesday. There are expectations for a further cut in deposit rate and an expansion of the QE asset purchasing facility. However, in recent days there has also been market chatter that the BOJ may be concerned about the sustainability of its current stimulus programme.

FOMC Outlook – The two day FOMC meeting starts later with the announcement and press conference scheduled for 18:00 and 18:30 GMT respectively on Wednesday. There is little chance of a rate hike this week. The lack of any indication from the FOMC that another tightening is on the way is one of the main factors suggesting policy will be left on hold for now. Additionally, recent data reports haven’t gone the Fed’s way, with weakness in employment, retail sales, and manufacturing, along with still low/moderate inflation trends.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 21st September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20st September 2016.



FX News Today

The BoJ: Announced a policy framework overhaul, which it called “QQE with yield curve control.” It left the 0.1% negative rate charged on excess reserves unchanged, while detailing a reworked QQE program. The central bank abandoned its base money target and replaced it with “yield curve control,” whereby the BoJ will target 10-year JGB yields at current levels around 0%. The second part of the new policy framework is “inflation-overshooting commitment,” where the BoJ is committing to expanding the money base until CPI exceeds the y/y target of 2% and stays above target. The BoJ said the scale of the QQE program remained on hold, and that overall asset purchases would remain “more or less in line with the current pace,” although the maturity target has been abolished. The timeframe for achieving the 2% inflation target has been set, quite simply, as “the earliest possible time.” Aside from detailing the new framework, the BoJ also provided an assessment of the failure to have pushed CPI to 2%, blaming “exogenous factors,” including the fall in oil prices, sluggish global demand and financial market volatility. On the economy, the BoJ said recovery “is likely to remain slow.” The yen dove nearly 1% as markets digested the new framework see below.

FX Update: USDJPY is registering a near 1% gain as the London interbank take to their desks. After initially dipping as the BoJ refrain from extending its NIRP policy, the pair rallied as the yen fell across-the-board as markets digested an overhaul in the BoJ’s policy framework. It left the 0.1% negative rate charged on excess reserves unchanged, while detailing a reworked QQE program. The central bank abandoned its base money target and replaced it with “yield curve control,” whereby the BoJ will target 10-year JGB yields at current levels around 0%. The second part of the new policy framework is “inflation-overshooting commitment,” where the BoJ is committing to expanding the money base until CPI exceeds the y/y target of 2% and stays above target. USD-JPY clocked an eight-day high at 102.78. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also vaulted higher. Whether the new framework will general sustained yen weakness remains to be seen. Spill over dollar strength following the BoJ’s announcement drove EUR-USD to a three-week low at 1.1123.

BoC’s Poloz said it is unclear if the bank will cut its forecast in October, responding to a question in his recently started Q&A with the press. He noted that the export gain in July provides some reassurance, but also said weakness in export data is unexplained. Keeping his constructive tone intact, he said he expects a large recovery in the level of non-commodity exports. As for the downward shift in inflation risks, he explained that the output gap and exports are behind the downward tilt. But the output gap is the biggest factor in lower inflation outlook he said. Responding to a question on housing, he said a slowdown in one housing market is rarely contagious. As for the renewal of the 2% inflation targeting mandate that is due in upcoming weeks, he said it is the Finance Department’s decision to make. It is a pretty high bar for changing the target, but it is not impossible, the Governor said. And repeating his previous view, he said the adjustment to the oil shock will take several years.

European Outlook: Japanese stocks jumped higher leading broad gains on other European markets after the Bank of Japan decided not to cut interest rates further. The reaction shows that markets and especially banks were weary of a further deepening of negative rates, which banks and insurers in particular are struggling to cope with. The Bank said it is shifting to a greater focus on the shape of the yield curve saying that it will increase bond purchases “more of less in line with the current pace” of 80 trillion yen per year. It also kept the door open to another rate cut. The Yen was under pressure after the decision, which underpinned the outperformance of Japanese stock markets. U.S. and U.K. futures are also higher ahead of the Fed decision, which is likely to see policy unchanged leaving the focus on the forward guidance. Oil prices are also higher, although the front end WTI future is down from earlier highs of over USD 45 per barrel at currently USD 44.89. European markets will look ahead to the Fed decision, but the local calendar also has U.K. public finance data. ECB’s Praet meanwhile stressed again this morning that the central bank will maintain a high degree of monetary accommodation.

Main Macro Events Today

FOMC Outlook – The two day FOMC meeting started yesterday with the announcement and press conference scheduled for 18:00 and 18:30 GMT respectively later today. There is little chance of a rate hike this week. The lack of any indication from the FOMC that another tightening is on the way is one of the main factors suggesting policy will be left on hold for now. Additionally, recent data reports haven’t gone the Fed’s way, with weakness in employment, retail sales, and manufacturing, along with still low/moderate inflation trends.

RBNZ – Expectations are for no change in the base rate from its current 2.00% level, still by far the the highest in the G10 countries.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 22nd September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd September 2016.



FX News Today

The FOMC: No change and no surprise the result was a bit of a tangled web of contradictions. The Fed said the case for a rate hike had strengthened, though policymakers for the “time being” decided to hold off and allow the economy “some room to run.” Yet there were three dissents (Mester, George and Rosengren) in favour of an immediate hike, indicating acrimony beneath the surface as on the other side three members see the possibility of no rate increase this year. The Fed’s own economic and policy projections were mostly downgraded, seemingly at odds with their hair-trigger outlook. Amidst the contradictions, the Fed has maintained that it is not politically motivated, which could ruffle more than a few feathers in the event of a hike as soon as November. In her press conference MRs Yellen maintained that all meetings were “live” and the move to keep interest rates on hold “does not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy” but was due to a slow uptake of labour-market slack and inflation below the 2% target. CMEGroup’s federal funds futures now shows a 60% chance of a rate rise in December.

RBNZ: Also no change and suggested a decline in the NZD is needed, monetary policy to remain accommodative and “further easing will be required”. Weak global growth and low rates continues to put upward pressure on NZD and makes it difficult for the RBNZ to reach its 2% inflation target. Strong domestic growth supported by high levels of migration (which is also keeping earnings growth down) tourism and construction. House price inflation remains “excessive”. Outlook for the key Dairy season remains “uncertain”. NZDUSD rose to 0.7370 before falling back to 0.7330.

FX Update: USDJPY extended into one-month low territory under 100.10 as markets digest yesterday’s Fed and BoJ policy decisions and guidance of yesterday. To recap, the BoJ overhauled its policy framework, introducing “QQE with yield curve control” and an “inflation-overshooting commitment,” but the main policy rate and the -0.1% rate on selected reserves, and other policy variables, were left unchanged — there was no actually increase in stimulus. As for the Fed, while saying the case for tightening had increased, leaving the door open to a hike by year-end, the pace of tightening envisaged in 2017 was reduced relative to guidance given in June. USDJPY has duly reacted with a downward shift. The August-16 low at 99.54 provides the next downside target, and below here is the post-Brexit vote low at 98.98. Japanese policymakers won’t be liking the appreciation of the yen, so we can expect more rhetorical warnings, but it will hard for them to justify actual interventions while yield differentials are moving in favour of further USDJPY declines. Outside the case of USDJPY, the dollar is broadly lower, showing about an average 0.3% decline versus the euro, sterling, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar currently. GBPUSD formed a tweezer bottom on last night’s daily candle.

European Outlook: Asian stocks rallied (Japan was closed for a holiday), following on from gains on Wall Street after the Fed left rates unchanged yesterday. The FOMC said the case for a hike “has strengthened”, but decided to stay put for the time being, FTSE 100 futures are also moving higher, but U.S. stock futures are already in the red again. Bund futures managed to recover losses in after hour trade and in the wake of the Fed decision and could see some early gains, after yesterday’s sell off, although stock moves and the realization that neither BoJ nor ECB are eager to delve further into negative interest rate territory, should keep a lid on gains. Gilts are likely to continue to outperform as the BoE keeps the door open to another cut. Oil prices are higher, with the front end WTI future currently trading at USD 45.77 per barrel. The European calendar starts to pick up with French national business confidence numbers, the U.K’s CBI industrial Trends survey and preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence numbers in the afternoon. The ECB releases its latest economic bulletin, although the articles have already been published in advance this week so there shouldn’t be big surprises.

Main Macro Events Today

US Initial Jobless claims – Initial claims data for the week of September 17 is out later and should show the headline holding at 260k (median 262k), steady from last week and just above 259k in the week of September 3. Claims look poised to average 260k in September from 262k in August and 260k in July. Expectations for nonfarm payrolls to be up 170k in September with the unemployment rate steady from 4.9%.

Draghi and Carney speeches – Both central bank heads are due to speak later today. First up is President Draghi at 13:00 GMT at the ESRB in Frankfurt and later Governor Carney (17:00 GMT) in Berlin.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 23rd September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd September 2016.



FX News Today

US Data Reports: Revealed weak August data for existing home sales and leading indicators, but a tight initial claims report for the BLS survey week of September that left mixed signals that were positive on net, with aid from a 0.5% July rise in the FHFA home price index. The 0.9% August existing home sales drop to a 5.33 mln rate left a Q3 trimming of Q2 gains, though the median price decline to $240,200 was largely seasonal and left that figure close to the $247,600 all-time high in June. The 0.2% August leading indicators drop tracked estimates, with weakness that reflects declines in the factory sensitive sectors. Most importantly, an 8k initial claims drop to 252k in the BLS survey week left that measure just above the 42-year low of 248k in mid-April, as claims tighten into the end of Q3 to signal upside risk for the 170k September nonfarm payroll estimate.

U.S. VIX equity volatility slumped 10%: It fell below 12.0 after the Fed on Wednesday and that’s put the VIX within a hair of 11.65 September lows compared to highs of 20.51 earlier in the month when the ECB held rates pat rather than easing again as expected (nothing to see here, no correlation). Year lows of 11.02 appear to be within reach, while life lows of 8.2 lie below as the markets continue to disbelieve the “cry wolf” hawkish Fedspeak, though 3 dissenters would suggest the Fed is very close to a second hike. Should the pendulum swing back again, that could put the 26.72 Brexit high back on the radar. Meanwhile, after bottoming at 2,119.1 in September, the S&P 500 looks poised to take another stab at 2,193.81 life highs set on August 15, barring a swing in the polls ahead of November elections.

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly slightly down (Nikkei closed -0.32%) . Australia’s ASX outperformed, as mining and energy stocks and especially gold led the way. U.S. and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are also slightly in the red and oil prices are down from highs of over USD 46 per barrel. Consolidation after yesterday/s celebration of the Fed’s steady hand policy, seems to be the order of the day, but while European stocks are likely to see some correction investors seem to be breathing more easily now. The 10-year Bund future already moved off highs in after hour trade yesterday and yields, which dropped sharply in Europe yesterday, are likely to pick up somewhat. The European calendar focuses on preliminary PMI readings for September, which we expect to stabilise after the mixed August numbers. The final reading for French Q2 GDP meanwhile is not expected to hold any surprise.

FX Update: The dollar has firmer back some following yesterday’s underperformance as the fizz of the post-FOMC risk-on theme abated. EURUSD has ebbed back to the 1.1200 area after peaking yesterday at an eight-day at 1.1257, and Cable has breached below yesterday’s low in making 1.3030. The yen also recouped from weakness, with the currency following its usual inverse correlative pattern with global stock market performance. USDJPY clocked a two-session high at 101.24 earlier in Tokyo, and has since ebbed back to the 100.90 area. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses are also softer. Commodity and emerging market currencies have also given back some of the gains seen in the wake of the FOMC announcement. Not much near-term downside potential in the dollar as market participants will, like the Fed, be data dependent in forming their commitment.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone PMI – After the mixed August numbers, expectations are for a stabilization in September with only a slight dip in the manufacturing PMI to 51.5, from 51.7 in the previous month, which should partly be compensated by the expected uptick in the services reading to 52.9 from 52.8 and thus leave the Composite PMI broadly stable at 52.8, versus 52.9 in August.

Canadian Inflation and Retail Sales – July Retail Sales are expected to pick up from -0.1% reading in June to 0.1% (MoM) whilst CPI YoY for August is also expected to tick up to 1.4% from 1.3%. The MoM figure should rise to 0.1% for August from -0.2% in July.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 27th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th September 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets managed to reverse earlier losses and are mostly up on the day, led by Hond Kong where casinos and banks outperformed as traders followed the U.S. presidential debate and judged Clinton the winner. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher, after yesterday’s sell off where concerns about Deutsche Bank AG weighed on financial stocks in Europe and a drop in yields hit U.S. banks. Oil prices are down on the day and off earlier highs, but the front end WTI future is holding above USD 45 per barrel ahead of the OPEC meeting, with some lingering hopes of an agreement on output caps. Gold hit highs of USD 1341 yesterday before settling to 1334. The European calendar has German import price inflation at the start of the session, as well as EMU M3 money supply growth and the U.K.’s CBI distributive trade survey.

FX Update: The Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar rallied on what appears to be a generally perceived victory, at least from the perspective of financial markets, for Clinton in the first presidential debate of the campaign. Trump’s protectionist views on trade (he said during the debate that NAFTA was the worse trade deal that the U.S. had ever signed) doesn’t sit too well with markets. The peso rallied by over 1.5%, driving USDMXN to an eight-day lows below 19.50. USDCAD, meanwhile, dove back under 1.3200 as the Canadian dollar rallied, having earlier logged a six-month peak at 1.3275. USDJPY lifted as stocks rebounded in Asia, with the pair recouping toward 101.00 after earlier logging a one-month low at 100.08. EURUSD remained mired in a narrow range in the mid 1.12s.

Fedspeak: Dallas Fed’s Kaplan would have been comfortable with a September hike, he said in comments at an energy sector event. Kaplan is not a voter this year, but does vote on the FOMC in 2017. He remains concerned about the distortions created by low rates. He wants to wait to see how the next three months unfold and added he’ll be hawkish at times, and dovish at times. Fed governor Tarullo would like a tougher capital plan for large U.S. banks, while affording a little relief for smaller lenders, estimating that the largest banks would likely hold “significantly more” capital under forthcoming “stress test” reforms from the Fed.

ECB’s Draghi: Monetary policy has been very effective, adding that the policy effect is not yet “exhausted”, while stressing again that low interest rates are a symptom of low growth. At the same time, Draghi said the ECB never discussed monetary financing, although of course the German legal challenges against some of Draghi’s emergency measures show that not everyone shares the same definition of that.

US Data Reports: Revealed a 7.6% new home sales drop to a still-solid 609k August rate that trimmed the hefty July pop to an upwardly-revised 659k (was 654k) expansion-high to leave a respectable sales path into Q3. Most housing metrics performed well through the spring and summer season despite weak residential construction in the Q2 GDP report, and weak monthly new construction figures through July that imply residential construction weakness in Q3 as well. We also saw a largely expected rise in the Dallas Fed index to -3.7 in September from -6.2, leaving both an upward trend and a 21st consecutive reading in negative territory. The component data were stronger than the headline, and the ISM-adjusted Dallas Fed rose to a respectable 51.2 from 50.7 in August.

Main Macro Events Today

US Consumer Confidence – September consumer confidence is out later and should reveal a headline decline to 98.0 from 101.1 in August which is still above July’s 96.7. The first release on Michigan Sentiment for September was tepid with the headline holding steady at 89.8 from August and the IBD/TIPP Poll declined to 46.7 from 48.4 in August.

Fed Vice Chair Fischer Speech – Mr Fischer is due to give a speech in Washington with the whimsical title “Why Study Economics”. Any departures from script are unlikely but following Jackson Hole anything is possible.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 28th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th September 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are heading south, led by a slide in Japanese markets, (Nikkei closed down -1.31%) as more than half the companies on the benchmark traded without the right to the next dividend, a biannual event in Japan that tends to weigh on markets. Elsewhere financials remained under pressure as concerns over Deutsche Bank AG continue to weigh on the sector. Oil prices are volatile and the front end WTI future has fallen below USD 45 per barrel, as investors scale back hopes of an agreement on output limits at the OPEC meeting. Gold suffered at decline to $1325 from over $1338. U.S. stock futures are down, but the FTSE 100 future is managing slight gains. The European calendar remains relatively quiet, German consumer confidence has already reported and missed expectations (10.2) coming in at 10.0. EURUSD trades at 1.1208.

Oil headlines from Algeria: No agreement to cap or freeze oil output as early as today, but that’s not ruled out for subsequent meetings, largely in line with earlier reports. The Saudis said the gap among OPEC countries is narrowing and Russia will meet with them again in October. Iran, Libya and Nigeria should be allowed to produce at maximum levels and once that’s agreed a freeze agreement consensus could be reached by November. Meanwhile the Saudis are investing in spare capacity and can survive at current oil price levels, and don’t see the need for a significant adjustment or cut, while Russia will maintain flat supply in the meantime.

Fedspeak: As expected no surprises from Fed’s VC Fischer from his speech, however, in the following Q&A session he said that he doesn’t want to raise rates too much, noting that 3% wage gains would be consistent with a “reasonable” rate of inflation and we’re beginning to see the fruits of a high pressure labor market. This is consistent with Fischer’s interest in being preemptive on rate hikes, though Brexit and mixed data has hijacked the tightening agenda since he first wanted to do so.

US Data Reports: Revealed a surprising September consumer confidence surge to a 104.1 cycle-high led by the present situation index that bucked weak September readings for other confidence surveys, alongside a small September rise in the Richmond Fed index to a still weak -8 from -11 in August. We saw a slightly larger ISM-adjusted Richmond Fed rise to 50.8 from a 3-year low of 49.7, with gains in all the components except inventories and employment, but with a particularly large employment index drop to a -13 new expansion-low from 7. We appear to be on the cusp of an inventory reversal that will lift GDP growth, though the rise will likely not be captured until Q4.

Main Macro Events Today

US Durable Goods – August durable goods orders expected to fall 1.4%, Shipments expected at -0.5%. Inventories expected unchanged. Durable goods ex- transport expected to fall -0.4%.

Yellen testifies and Draghi speaks – Following Mr Fischer yesterday, today his boss Mrs Yellen testifies in front of the Committee on Financial Services in Washington regarding Supervision and Regulation. Later Mr Draghi speaks in the German Bundestag with his thoughts on the current developments in the Euro area.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 29th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th September 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Energy stocks pushed up Asian markets after OPEC agreed to cut oil production and limit daily output to 32.5-33 million barrels. The front end WTI future is currently trading above USD 47 per barrel and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also celebrating the deal, which will see European stocks extending yesterday’s gains and is likely to weigh on bond futures. The European data calendar is very busy today, with preliminary inflation data for September for Spain and Germany, as well as German unemployment and the Eurozone ESI economic confidence indicator. The U.K. has BoE mortgage approvals, consumer credit and money supply data.

Oil headlines from Algeria: Oil prices surged following the surprise OPEC agreement on production cuts. USOil rallied 5% to $47.46 and UK Oil was up to highs over $49.00. The production cut was between 240k and 740k barrels per day, which will limit supply to between 32.5 mln and 33 mln barrels per day. It was a surprise because Saudi Arabia had dampened market expectations for a deal ahead of the meeting in Algiers. This is the first coordinated action to lift crude prices in eight years, and marks a shift in strategy of the group to maintain market share and put pressure on high-cost producers such as shale field drillers. Markets will be paying close attention to the implementation of the production cut, particularly given the lack of information about how much each producer will curtail output. OPEC next meets officially at the end of November.

ECB’s Draghi: ECB countered threat of new “great depression”. Defending the ECB’s policies to German parliamentarians Draghi said after a visit to the lower house that other policies must contribute much more decisively while the ECB must allow its measures to develop for full impact. The central bank president stressed that the ECB doesn’t see overheating in the Eurozone or German economies although he admitted that low rates for long may risk asset-overvaluation risk and that ECB policy is not the main factor in low bank profitability.

Fedspeak: Governor Yellen: The rate hike outlook said that in the event of economic overheating the Fed is prepared to adjust policy accordingly, as the jobless rate could fall farther and continued job creation at the current pace could lead to overheating. There’s no meaningful upward pressure on inflation, however, and she’s pleasantly surprised that the jobless rate has not fallen of late and there’s “no fixed time table for interest rate moves”. Later Loretta Mester noted the risks in waiting too long to raise rates and worried that further delays may force a steeper trajectory in the future. She explained her dissent at the September 20, 21 FOMC, saying the underlying fundamentals supporting the economy are sound, which has been “demonstrated by the resiliency it has shown through a numbers of bumps along the road of expansion.” Some of those bumps are, the gyrations in the financial markets at the start of the year, the slowing in China, economic weakness in Europe, the large appreciation in the dollar between mid 2014 and the start of 2016, and the uncertainties over Brexit. And the economy is expected to continue to show strength too. She reiterated the maxim that monetary policy works with a lag, so policy actions need to be taken before the goals are met. Earlier Neel Kashkari had stated just how much slack remains in the labor market is the critical question, while the economy should have continued moderate growth of about 2%, while global investors near-term see Treasuries as a safe haven. While the U.S. long-term needs to get its fiscal house in order, it’s not appropriate for the Fed to hold back in order to force the hand of fiscal authorities. Kashkari also found it “alarming” that issues at Wells Fargo could have been going on for years and no one was aware. Finally, Charles Evans reiterated the likelihood that rates remain lower for longer, in his prepared remarks to community bankers. Policy will be normalized at a very gradual pace. The low rate scenario means the Fed will have less room to respond to downside shocks. The dovishly inclined Evans is not a voter this year but rotates into that position in 2017.

Main Macro Events Today

US GDP – The third release on Q2 GDP is out today and should reveal an upward revision for the headline to 1.5% from 1.1% in the second release, 1.2% in the first release and 0.8% in Q1 of this year. Among the revisions there is likely to be upward revisions for construction of $8 bln, consumption up $4 bln, net exports up $4 bln and intellectual property up $2 bln. Looking ahead to Q3, the headline could be stronger at 2.2%.

Governor Yellen – Following her testimony in front of the Committee on Financial Services in Washington regarding Supervision and Regulation yesterday, the FED chair is in Kanas City speaking at the Minority Bankers Forum.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.