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[HFblogNews]

Date : 8th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 8th October 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

The FX markets have been relatively quiet and global equity markets trading mixed over the last 24 hours. U.S. and European markets were up yesterday, while Asian markets traded mostly lower in overnight trading in the wake of a week long holiday in China. Commodity prices have been correcting after yesterday’s price rally, this has seen the AUD and other commodity dependent currencies getting whipped as commodity prices adjust to the possibility of a further delay in the U.S. Fed rate hike.

The EURUSD is trading higher in European trading having now cleared the 1.1280 resistance level, as the IMF said that the U.S. Fed should wait for more signs to raise rates, with IMF’s Vinals saying that “wage and price pressures don’t justify a Fed rate rise and that waiting a couple of months is less risky than a premature lift-off.” The IMF also said that ECB policies are gaining traction while also warning that deleveraging in China will require great care and that it sees a “heightened” chance of global asset-market disruption.

For the moment, EURUSD daily traders will focus on whether today’s resistance (1.1280) in European session price break will hold and close above (1.1280), or if it will leave a less meaningful shadow for the day and close below (1.1280). EURUSD bulls will prefer to see a clean close on price above 1.1280 in order to keep alive any attempt to carry the pair towards the 1.1460 next key resistance level. I would also like to point out again that current price is still holding well above the daily 10,50 SMA bull cross event that accrued in mid August. This bullish moving average double crossover observation technically adds to support the case for EURUSD long holders, at least in the short term.



Currency Movers Charts

The EUR traded sharply higher in European trade as a technical upward break of the 1.1280 recent resistance area has been penetrated. The EUR has been moving upward even through recent German and France economic data have been on the weak side with a dive in German exports and an unsuspected dip in French business sentiment.

The AUD trades lower as expectations of continued weak growth in China and the rest of Asia point to softer growth in Australia. The CHF is higher across the board against the majors as the CHF is still the best risk off place in the market. The USD and the GBP are mostly softer ahead of the U.S. FOMC minutes and the BoE Governors speech later today.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR German Trade Balance: German trade surplus narrowed as exports fell. Germany posted a trade surplus of EUR 19.5 bln in August, down from EUR 22.4 bln in the previous month. Exports dropped 5.2% m/m, after a 2.2% m/m rise in July. The fact that imports also dropped a strong 3.1% m/m, suggests that like in manufacturing data, the timing of the school holidays in the different German states may have distorted the numbers somewhat, but the fact that the drop in exports far outstrips the decline in imports and is in fact the strongest declines since the recession days of 2009 is worrying and ties in with other data showing a slowdown in activity. Exports were still up 6.6% y/y in the first eight months of the year, however, and the accumulated trade surplus widened to EUR 163.9 bln from EUR 136.0 bln in the first eight months of 2013.

• GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision: It is widely expected that the Bank of England will keep policy on hold; the focus today will be on the minutes.

• CAD Housing Starts: Starts are expected to slow to a 205k unit rate in September (median 204.0k) from the 216.9k pace in August. A pull-back in multiple starts after the 19.5% surge in August is expected to slow total starts in September. Forecast Risk: The economies of Canada’s energy producing regions have taken well publicized hits from the fall in energy prices. Expect slower activity in those markets to continue. However, mortgage rates are lean, which has boosted activity in other regions and helped maintain momentum in construction activity.

• USD FOMC Minutes: From Sept 16-17 meeting that a big focus given surprise rate lift-off delay. So far, the markets view that conditions for hike are approaching, but not there yet.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 9th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 9th October 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

There was no surprise in the FOMC minutes from the mid-September meeting with “several members” worried that downside risk to growth and inflation have increased due to uncertainties about the global economy. The fact that the FOMC members are downbeat adds to the odds that the FED will delay to at least year end. The U.S. Dow Jones finished with a solid higher close in the wake of the FOMC minutes, while Asian stock markets have rallied across in overnight trading, and most commodity prices are gaining. Crude Oil is trading above $50 for the first time since late July, and may aid support to commodity linked currencies.

Previous EURUSD price action closed just below the key resistance (1.1280), leaving a shadow on the daily. However, the EUR bulls seem to be gaining control of the market this morning as price has taken out yesterday’s high (1.1327) and now looks set to continue a push higher with short term bullish momentum now in play. EURUSD bulls should remain cautious of the failed upward break of the one year moving average August high near the 1.17’s, which supports that the longer term trend on the EUR remains to the downside.

EURUSD daily traders should understand that the pair still lacks direction over the very short term and price seems to be attempting to trace out a trading range between the 1.1090 – 1.1460 range.

The Bank of England left policy unchanged as expected; however, the meeting minutes sounded more to the side of holding current policy for an extended period as the BoE pointed out downside risks, all suggesting that the BoE is in no hurry to raise rates.



Currency Movers Charts

The EUR is trading higher against the majors in the wake of positive French production numbers, which normally is not a EUR mover, but today catches a USD bearish market following yesterday’s publication of the Fed’s minutes to its most recent policy meeting. The USD, JPY and the GBP are all suffering losses as commodity currencies trade stronger fueled by a general risk on investor sentiment after the FOMC minutes indicated an increased in the odds that the FED will delay any upward move in interest rates. The AUD , CAD and NZD are all benefiting from the stronger commodity markets and the fact that US Crude Oil is trading at its highest levels not seen since late July.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Italian Industrial Production: Dropped -0.5% m/m in August, after 1.1% m/m in July. The work day adjusted y/y rate fell back to 1.0% from 2.8% and output actually stagnated in the three months to August, which will raise renewed concerns about the health of the Italian economy.

• EUR French Industrial Production: Better than expected with manufacturing up 2.2% m/m and overall production 1.6% m/m. July data were revised down, but the numbers are nevertheless encouraging. The positive numbers tie in with the improvement in French PMI readings recently and confirm that the cyclical recovery in the Eurozone has finally reached France.

• USD Wholesale Inventories: August wholesale trade data is out later today and should reveal a 0.3% (median unchanged) decline for sales while inventories remain unchanged for the month. This would follow respective July figures of -0.3% for sales and -0.1% for inventories.

• CAD Bank of Canada Business Outlook: Due out later today, is expected to improve to 10.0 in Q3 from 8.0 in Q2 and a multi-year low 4.0 in Q1. An expected rebound in Q3 GDP following the declines in Q1 and Q2 is expected to lift sentiment.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 13th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 13th October 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

With markets trading in quiet mode yesterday because of the bank Holiday’s in the U.S., Canada and Japan traders should expect to see price action pick up as traders get back to work after the extended weekend.

EURUSD daily still remains contained within the 1.1460 (Top) 1.1090 (Bottom) range, with current price now trading comfortability above the key support (1.1280) with the pair not showing any signs of leaving a new lower top from the 1.17 August high. I see upside potential in the immediate short term to be limited to around the 1.1440 – 1.1460 levels, before selling pressure emerges, however, since bullish price momentum still remains present there remains the risk for sellers of a price extension towards the 1.15 – 1.1530′s.

Asian stock markets are mostly lower in overnight trade as weaker than expected trade data out of China put pressure on commodities and overall market sentiment. The drop in Chinese imports added to the fall in oil prices yesterday. U.K. BRC retail sales came in much stronger than expected.

The USD traded weaker in quiet Monday trading with fresh losses against the EUR, AUD and NZD, while the JPY is still flat. The general weakness in the USD is a continuation of selling seen in the wake of last week’s release of the FOMC minutes, which have seen the odds for a Fed rate hike expectations shifted towards year end or even further out.



Currency Movers Charts

The USD over the last 5 day trading sessions has been to the downside sparked by the latest release of the FOMC meeting minutes which have seen the odds for a Fed rate lift-off by year-end lengthen. The GBP is lower across the board in the wake of lower trade balance that fell in August to GBP-3.27 billion from GBP-4.4 billion in July while the forecast was for a GBP 2.5 billion deficit. The AUD has been outperforming as higher commodity prices and hopes of more prolonged stays of ultra-accommodative monetary policy at the Fed and BoE give AUD buyers reason to support price.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR German HICP: Was confirmed at -0.2% y/y, national CPI at 0.0% y/y, as expected. The breakdown, which was released for the first time, confirmed that lower energy prices are the main reason behind the negative headline rate. Prices for heating oil were down 27.9% y/y in September and petrol prices dropped 13.8% y/y. Excluding both household energy and petrol the annual rate stood at 1.1% y/y, still below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability but far above the headline rate and the risk of a real deflationary spiral is very small, which means the ECB won’t need to react to the drop in headline inflation numbers, even if they keep easing speculation alive.

• GBP Consumer Price Index: The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell by 0.1%, compared to no change (0.0%) in the year to August 2015. A smaller than usual rise in clothing prices and falling motor fuel prices were the main contributors to the fall in the rate. The rate of inflation has been at or around 0.0% for most of 2015.

• EUR German ZEW Survey: Investor sentiment fell more than expected to 1.9 from 12.1. Market sentiment is swinging between concerns about the global growth outlook and hopes that monetary stimulus will remain in place for longer than previously thought and that this will prevent a substantial deceleration in growth.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 14th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 14th October 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD daily price has been in a momentum driven mode since clearing to the upside the previous resistance now turned support (1.1280) level. This upward momentum on price has been done on the back of mostly disappointing Eurozone data; however, the market has interpreted last week’s release of the U.S. Feds FOMC meeting minutes as a reason to sell off the USD, therefore, proving short term support for the EUR. Moving forward, stochastic oscillator analysis is starting to look overextended, indicating that momentum may start to slow. Price is also nearing the 260 period (1 year) SMA leaving me with the technical view that the EURUSD remains at risk for a fall towards the 1.1280′s, unless we see a clean break above the 1.1460′s that could open up the way for the 1.1530′s.

On Tuesday, we saw that the German ZEW investor expectations drop was much more pronounced than anticipated, with optimists only marginally outnumbering pessimists now. The index has been falling steadily since March and the decline in investor sentiment clearly reflects growing concerns about the health of the global economy and the impact of slowing growth in emerging market economies on advanced countries. The expectations index for the U.S. dropped sharply in October, and the reading for the Eurozone also declined. The German ZEW decline was not a total surprise in the wake of the VW emission scandal, the refugee crisis and, of course, uncertainty about the global growth outlook.

Global stock markets were weaker on Tuesday, as disappointing trade news from China continues to influence investor sentiment, and signs of disinflation from Europe. Also, profit taking on U.S. markets added to the selling pressure after the Dow Jones posted a 7-week high last week.



Currency Movers Charts

AUD has been correcting lower in the wake of a 2 week advance, AUDUSD buyers have emerge around the 0.72 area and a potential 10,50 SMA bull cross may be forming on the daily. The NZD has been trading higher as the New Zealand economy continues to grow, supported by strong home sales. The USD is still softer as markets continue to add pressure for USD buyers with the impact of a delayed rate hike fresh on traders mind, as well as disappointing retail sales data.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• GBP Claimant Count Change: UK unemployment unexpectedly dipped to a new cycle low of 5.4% in the official ILO figure for August. This is below the BoE’s 5.5% NAIRU marker, which is the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, below which the central bank expects inflation pressures to build. Other parts of the labour report showed the claimant count rising by 4.6k in September, which is worse than expected as the median forecast was for a 2.5k decline. The claimant count rate remained at cycle lows of 2.3%. Wage data was perky, though within expectations. The with-bonus figure rose 3.0% y/y in the three months to August, up from 2.9% previously. This is a strong rate of real improvement in households spending power, given that CPI is at -0.1% y/y, and the BoE will be monitoring this closely with unemployment now south of 5.5%.

• EUR Eurozone Industrial Production: Eurozone industrial production dropped 0.5% m/m in August, in line with median expectations and indications from national data last week. The annual rate dropped to 0.9% y/y from 1.7% y/y in the previous month. Confidence indicators continue to suggest ongoing expansion, but also a slowdown in growth momentum, and even if the broadening of developments is encouraging, the knock to the German economy from the emission scandal and the slowdown in emerging economies is also raising concerns about the outlook and adding to the arguments of the doves at the ECB.

• USD Retail Sales: U.S. retail sales rose 0.1% in September, and fell 0.3% ex-autos. The disappointing data will add to expectations of no Fed rate hike in 2015. The 0.2% headline August gain was bumped down to unchanged, though July’s 0.7% was bumped up to 0.8%. The 0.1% ex-auto gain from August was revised lower to -0.1%. Sales excluding autos, gasoline, and building materials edged up 0.1% after a 0.2% increase in August (revised down from 0.5%). Motor vehicles and parts climbed 1.7% last month. Gas station sales fell 3.2%. Small declines were registered in electronics, building materials, food, general merchandise and non-store retailers. Clothing rose 0.9%, as did sporting goods, with furniture prices up 0.6%. Health care costs were unchanged.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 15th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 15th October 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD daily price is currently testing the upper end of my predicted price path range (1.1090 – 1.1460). Ideally, a solid close above the 260 period SMA (1 year moving average) could indicate a possible trend reversal on the EURUSD. The next major daily resistance is now at 1.1560, however there still remains the possibility of a failed upward break that could shift the control back to the short sellers for a retest of the 1.1340′s , 1.1280′s and the 1.1090′s in extension. From a technical standpoint the EURUSD continues to look overextended, the technical trader should be reminded that just because the stochastic oscillator is in overextended territory that does not indicate an immediate fall in price, on the contrary, it is not uncommon that in a strong uptrend that an oscillator could remain overextended while price continues to advanced. My conclusion for short term traders is to add long positions on dips for targets between the 1.1460’s and 1.1560’s.

In the event that the ECB can not meet its inflation objective, the European Central Bank may make a move to extend QE, according to the Bank of Spain deputy governor Restoy.

Crude overnight hit near $45.90, down from yesterday’s $46.91 peak , crude moved lower after the close on Wednesday, as the API reported a huge 9.3 mln bbl weekly stock build, the largest in six-months. Some of the inventory rise was attributed to falling refinery operating rates, as API reported a 5 mln bbl fall in gasoline supplies for the latest week.

Stock markets have been moving higher as weak economic data continues to hit the news wires, with U.S. negative data on ex-auto retail sales and PPI, a deterioration of Japanese manufactures, and the unexpected dip in Australian employment all giving some relief for stock investors since it adds to the possibility of a delay in a U.S. interest rate raise, while increasing the risk that the ECB will proceed with additional QE in order to boast the Eurozone.



Currency Movers Charts

The EUR fell following the mix of data, which revealed a 40-plus year low in jobless claims, a slightly hotter core CPI reading, and an improvement, though less than expected in the Empire State index headline.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• AUD Employment Change: Australian employment had an unexpected dip coming in at -5.1k while it was expected to come in at 7.2k.

• USD Consumer price Index: CPI sank 0.2% in Sep, in line with median -0.2%; core +0.2%, above med 0.1%. There were no revisions to August which posted a 0.1% headline decline, with the core rate edging up 0.1%. On an annual basis, the headline index was unchanged versus 0.2% y/y, while the ex-food and energy component rose to a 1.9% y/y from 1.8% y/y. Energy prices skidded another 4.7% following a 2.0% decline in August. Transportation costs dropped 2.3% from -1.3%. Food/beverage prices edged up 0.4% from 0.2%. Services costs rose 0.2% from 0.1%. Housing were up 0.3% from 0.2%. Apparel slipped 0.3%, reversing the 0.3% gain in August. Commodities were down 0.8% from -0.4%. Tobacco prices declined 0.1% following a 0.5% gain in August.

• USD Initial Jobless Claims: U.S. initial jobless claims fell 7k to 255k in the week ended October 10, matching the lowest since 1973.from a revised 262k in the prior week (was 263k). That brought the 4-week moving average to 265.0k from 267.25k (revised from 267.50k). Continuing claims fell 50k to 2,158k in the October 3 week, versus a revised 2,208k (was 2,204k), the lowest since December, 1973.

• USD Empire State Index: NY Empire State index rebounded to -11.36 in Oct, below median -8.0 vs -14.7.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 16th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 15th October 2015.


AUDUSD, Daily

As expected the pair rallied from the 0.6938 support. AUD has now been trading at resistance and just recently failed to stay above the daily Bollinger Bands. The 100 period SMA has been limiting the upside in the occasions while the September pivotal high at 0.7280 has been supporting price yesterday and today. Price is now trading at 0.7263. A close below 0.7266 would make yesterday’s candle a pivot and a lower high. This looks likely. A break below 0.7200 would open a way to the 0.7020 support. If 0.7200 fails to support price look for reversals in 0.6938 – 0.7020 range for long trades and 0.7344 - 0.7382 for short trades.




AUDJPY, Daily

With AUDUSD rallying the AUDJPY moved higher as well. The pair hit resistance at 88.65 and reversed after trading outside the Bollinger bands. Now price action is taking place inside Bollinger Bands and the pair is fluctuating near 50 day simple moving average. There is some support at 86.08 but the 4h chart reveals a lower high after price reacted lower from a 30 period SMA and increases the chances price will break below this support. This would make the 82.88 – 84.29 a reasonable target level. Look for bullish reversals inside this range while 87.80 – 88.65 is a range for bearish reversals.




MACRO EVENTS & NEWS



FX News Today

Bund futures are outperforming and yields heading south, while Eurozone spreads narrow, as weak inflation numbers bolster hopes of further ECB easing. Pressure on Draghi to at least set the stage for a widening or extension of the QE program next week are mounting amid the uncertainty about the global growth outlook. Nowotny’s comments yesterday that even core inflation is clearly below target further fuelled speculation of additional measures, although the Austrian central bank head called for structural reforms rather than hinting at ECB action.

The Eurozone posted trade surplus of EUR 19.8 bln in August, down from EUR 22.4 bln in the previous month. Exports were up 6.0% y/y in August, versus nominal import growth of 3.0% y/y, although considering that lower oil prices are suppressing the nominal import bill, real import growth will have been higher.

Eurozone final CPI was confirmed at -0.1% y/y, in line with the preliminary number and down from 0.2% y/y in the previous month. The breakdown confirmed that the drop back into negative territory was driven by a sharp decline in energy prices, which were down -1.7% m/m and -8.9% y/y, versus -7.2% y/y in August. Core inflation remains much higher at 0.9% y/y, but as Nowotny highlighted yesterday, this is also considerably below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability. So more arguments for the doves at the ECB although the amount of stimulus in the system is already substantial and while central bankers want to keep markets happy they also seem wary of additional action, especially as monetary policy alone can’t fix the Eurozone’s problems.

Main Macro Events Today


• Canada Manufacturing: We expect shipments, due today, to tumble 1.5% m/m in August after the 1.7% gain in July. A 3.6% plunge in exports values provides a compelling reason to forecast a pull-back in manufacturing shipments during August.

• US Industrial Production: September industrial production data is out Friday and we expect a 0.2% (median -0.2%) headline decline for the month which follows a 0.4% decline in August. This would bring capacity utilization down to 77.3% from 77.6% in August. The September employment report was weak and we saw declines in hours worked as well as employment in both manufacturing and mining which will likely weigh on the release.

• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The first release on Michigan Sentiment is out on Friday and should reveal a headline increase to 89.0 (median 88.4) from 87.2 in September. The already released IBD/TIPP poll for October improved to 47.3 from 42.0 in September and the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort survey is poised to average 45.0 for the month.

EURUSD UPDATE



EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD sold off in the wake of mixed U.S. data that highlighted a 40 year low in U.S. jobless claims, slightly better core CPI reading, and a small improvement in the Empire State index. The EURUSD market sell off yesterday was a standard knee jerk reaction to the headline positive jobless claims, which saw renewed interest in buying the USD. Technically, the sell off was expected, as momentum indicators have been signaling that buying interest in the EURUSD has been slowing with the stochastic oscillator reading as overextended. Price now sits around the 1.1370′s, and I expect this area to hold, unless today’s U.S. release of the UoM Consumer Sentiment comes in above expectations. The 1.1370′s also happens to be the 38.2% Fibo from the July low (1.0808) – August High (1.1713), so I would expect price support around current levels. My conclusion for the short term trader is to add long positions above 1.1370 for targets between the 1.1460′s and 1.1560′s.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click [url='https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html']HERE[/url] to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click [url='https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html']HERE[/url] to register for FREE!

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 19th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 19th October 2015.



AUDUSD, Daily

AUDUSD 5-day change is lower against other major currencies in what seems to be a pause in the recent price rally from the September 29th low (0.6936) to the Oct 12th high (.7380). Daily technical observations spots a bullish 10,50 SMA cross, consecutive higher tops and bottoms on price from September 4th – October 12th (0.69 L / .7380 H ) and the fact that current price is trading above the 10,50 SMA brings me to the conclusion that price remains in a short term uptrend. If today’s low on price holds above the 0.7230 area this could create a lower top above last week’s low (0.72) that may open up the way towards 0.7380; my ultimate short term price objective near 0.7440. However, traders should be on alert for any break below the 0.72 support that may support a deeper price retracement from the September Low to October’s current high with relevant support in this case spotted around the 0.71-0.7110′s.



GBPAUD, Weekly

GBPAUD weekly chart analysis, price touched a six year high at 2.24 late August and since has made a series of lower tops on price. Current price is trading below both the tentative downward slopping trend line, and the 10 period SMA. Stochastic oscillator analysis spots a bullish cross below the 20 line indicating a possible pause in the current downward price direction. My conclusion for the weekly chart trader is to sell into any strength higher up from current price, ideally near the 2.14 area for a 2.03 target.

FXPAIR : GBPAUD
SUPPORTS: 2.03
RESISTANCES: 2.24




ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD



Main Macro Events This Week

* United States: Housing releases dominate the economic calendar. The sector has disappointed with relatively moderate growth despite the improved job market and still low mortgage rates. This week’s reports aren’t likely to alter that assessment. The NAHB homebuilder sentiment index (Today) is projected steady at 62 in October, the best level since 2005. September housing starts (Tuesday) are seen edging up to a 1.130 mln pace, rebounding from a 7.1% cumulative decline in July and August. Existing home sales for September (Thursday) are projected rising 1.7% to a 5.40 mln clip to unwind part of the 4.8% August drop. The August FHFA home price index (Thursday) and weekly MBA mortgage numbers (Wednesday) are also slated. The only other report of note is the flash Markit manufacturing PMI for October. Chair Yellen (Tuesday) will give brief welcome remarks at a Labor Department event. Governor Brainard (Today) will discuss removing unnecessary regulation. Dudley and Powell (Tuesday) are speaking at a money market conference. And Governor Powell will also speak on market liquidity.

* Canada: The Canadian calendar is highlighted by the Bank of Canada’s rate announcement (Wednesday) and the Monetary Policy Report. We expect no change to the current 0.50% setting, alongside a cautiously constructive outlook for growth and inflation that is supportive of no change in rates for an extended period. The Federal election will be held today. As for economic data, the September CPI is seen slowing to a 1.2% y/y pace, but with a flat month comparable reading as a drop in gasoline prices competes with the typical seasonal jump in clothing prices. The Bank of Canada’s core CPI is expected to nudge higher to a 2.2% y/y rate in September following the 2.1% clip in August. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% in August after the 0.5% gain in July. Wholesale shipments (Tuesday) are seen rising 0.3% in August after the flat reading in July.

* Europe: All eyes will be on the ECB this week. Eurozone inflation is back in negative territory and uncertainty about the global growth outlook is rising, which is putting intense pressure on Draghi to extend or expand the QE program. However, the ECB has already provided an unprecedented amount of stimulus and the measures have eased credit conditions and bolstered confidence. Inflation is expected to pick up again toward the end of the year and with domestic demand robust, we don’t see the risk of a deflationary spiral. What the Eurozone needs are structural reforms, not an ever-easy policy stance. And in this situation, Draghi is likely to maintain the wait and see approach, at least for now, although his comments are likely to be sufficiently dovish to keep markets happy, even if a steady hand policy will likely disappoint some and push up yields, at least temporarily. The economic calendar this week focuses on preliminary PMI readings for October (Friday), which we expect to show a further slowdown in the pace of expansion in both services and manufacturing. The EMU’s manufacturing reading is seen falling to 51.7 from 52.0 and the services reading to 53.4 from 53.6 in the previous month. Preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence numbers for October are also expected to head south with growing concerns about the global growth outlook starting to spook consumers. The Eurozone also has BoP and current account data, Italian orders numbers and German PPI inflation.

* United Kingdom: The week ahead is pretty quiet, which will leave the focus of sterling markets on external data and developments and Chinese growth data. UK government borrowing (Wednesday) is the first data of note, followed by official retail sales data for September (Thursday).

* China: Growth was expected to slow to a 6.5% y/y pace, from the 7.0% clip seen in Q1 and Q2 but came in at 6.9%. The figure fell short of the 7.0% official forecast, but was so slight that the damage on global market sentiment remained negligible. Even the bigger drop was not expected to weigh on stocks due to the “good news is bad news” psychology and hopes of more PBoC stimulus. The better than expected data may not help sentiment much though, as the Chinese data are often viewed to be doctored. September industrial production (Today) is forecast to dip to 6.0% y/y from 6.2% in August. September retail sales (Today) are penciled in at 10.7% y/y gain, down slightly from the prior 10.8% outcome.

* Japan: In Japan, the September trade report (Wednesday) also is eagerly awaited for growth insights though balance is likely to be impacted significantly by weakness in imports (y/y) amid low energy prices. Indeed, the JPY 569.4 bln August deficit is expected to reverse sharply to a surplus of JPY 50 bln. The pace of export growth is seen holding steady, though the increasingly sluggish growth in the region may limit exports as well. The August all-industry index (Wednesday) is expected to fall 0.4% m/m, as compared to the prior 0.2% gain.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 21st October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 21st October 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

EURAUD Daily, the AUD has given back some recent gains against the majors over the last few trading sessions, leaving the outlook for the AUD to continue a narrow trade range as concerns about inflation subside, while commodities seek out a bottom. Technically, the Daily EURAUD observations include: bearish 10,50 SMA crossover spotted, price trades within a downward slopping trend channel, and stochastic oscillator indicates positive upward momentum. My conclusion for the Daily supports long positions with a price target near the 1.5840 inside swing area.





Main Macro Events Today



• Bank of Canada Rates Decision: No change is expected to the 0.50% rate setting in today’s announcement. Economic data has been consistent with a return to GDP growth in Q3 after the oil price shock left back to back erosion in Q1 and Q2. The Bank’s Q3 GDP estimate of 1.5% is destined for a substantial upward revision (we see a 3.0% gain) in the Monetary Policy Report. But reduced global and U.S. growth prospects promise to trim the 2.3% estimate for 2016 GDP (we see 2.2%). Hence, we expect the growth and inflation outlook to back expectations for no change in rates for an extended period.

• BOE’s Governor Carney speech. In today’s Speech Carney will comment on how Britain’s EU membership will impact the Bank of England’s ability to manage the economy and protect the banking sector.


FX News Today

Japan’s trade deficit narrowed 88.1% y/y to 114.5 bln JPY from a revised -569.4 bln JPY (was -569.7 bln JPY). Imports dropped 11.1% y/y, while exports edged up 0.6% y/y. The latter was the slowest pace in more than a year as shipments around Asia softened, with those to China dropping 3.5%. Exports to the U.S. were strong, however, up more than 10%, largely on autos and pharmaceuticals. On the month the deficit widened 4.8% with exports down 1.7% for a third straight decline, while imports fell 1.9%, a second consecutive monthly slide. The Nikkei is higher on the day as the trade data increases hopes for more stimulus.following a 0.5% gain in August.

Bund futures already recovered opening losses and are rising in tandem with Gilts and stock markets. Volatility has returned ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow. Japanese trade numbers boosted hopes of further stimulus in Japan and reminded European markets that even if the ECB continues to sit on the fence tomorrow, this doesn’t mean the end for an expansion of the QE program. Most analysts expect Draghi to announce a move in December.

• Canada’s election and the economy: The liberal majority victory provides some solace to a market that was prepared for a minority government and all the lack of certainty that vote by vote coalition gathering brings. Of course, a Trudeau majority victory brings a greater tolerance for Federal deficits. Harper ran deficits after 2009′s global upheaval but had been focused on bringing finances back to balance. Trudeau, in contrast, campaigned on running modest (C$10 bln) deficits for the next three years to finance infrastructure projects in a bid to boost Canada’s flagging economy. We would point out that the extended time lag between approval and actual construction typically precludes infrastructure “investment” from having any impact on the economy in the near-term. Meanwhile, Trudeau plans to fund tax cuts for middle income earners by raising taxes on the top 1%. As for the corporate tax rate, Trudeau said during the campaign that the current 15% is “fine.”

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 22nd October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 22nd October 2015.



EURUSD, 240 min

The sideways move over the last three days has been a reflection of both market participants’ carefulness ahead of ECB meeting and the fact that the pair is trading between support and resistance levels. ECB leaders gather today in Malta and Mario Draghi will be speaking on European economy. We do not expect the ECB to announce new QE measures today. This expectation is in line with the analyst consensus. Inflation is below ECB target but Draghi has expressed satisfaction on increased lending in the Euro area. This suggests no need for new QE measures.

At the time of writing EURUSD is trading at a support created by previous pivot highs and 50% Fibonacci retracement. The 100 period SMA coincides with this support while the Stochastics Oscillator points to the pair being oversold in both the 4h and daily time frame. The last week’s bearish pin bar together with the upper weekly Bollinger Bands has been limiting the moves to the upside. Nearest support and resistance levels are at 1.1295 and 1.1388. The support can be found at 1.1260, a 61.8% Fibonacci level which coincides with 50 day SMA. Look for a move higher towards the 1.1388 resistance if no new QE promises or measures are introduced.

MACRO EVENTS & FX NEWS



Main Macro Events Today

• ECB Rates Decision: ECB seen on hold, focus on presser. We expect the central bank to stay on hold today, as does the overwhelming majority of analysts in the latest Bloomberg survey, with only one expecting further easing measures already this week. This does not mean that an extension or expansion of the QE program will be off the table however and Draghi’s comments at the press conference will likely strike a fine balance between justifying the current wait and see stance and assuring markets that the ECB is ready and willing to act again if necessary. Comments suggest that the low inflation environment is once again becoming a concern and December, when the updated set of economic projections is due, will become a major focal point for a decision on additional steps.

[B]• US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of October 17 is out today and should reveal an increase to 264k (median 265k) from 255k last week. We expect the average for October to be 270k from 269k in September. This supports our call for a 190k employment headline which would follow a 142k increase in September.

• US Existing Home Sales: September existing home sales data today should reveal a 1.7% increase to a 5.400 mln (median 5.350 mln) headline following a 5.310 mln August figure and 5.580 mln in July which set a high back to 2007. Other housing measures are coming in mixed for the month with the NAHB holding steady at 61 in September, starts rising to 1.206 mln but permits slowing to 1.103 mln.


FX News Today

French business confidence mixed, with the overall headline number unexpectedly rising to 101 from 100, but manufacturing confidence falling to 103 from 104 and the production outlook indicator slumping to 2 in October, while the September reading was revised down to 5 from 7 reported initially. The own company production outlook held up better, with the reading declining only slightly to 13 from 14 in the previous month, highlighting that concerns about global developments and the slowdown in emerging markets rather than actual weakness at company level are the main factors.

Bank of Canada Constructive on Growth as Forces Awaken. The Bank of Canada maintained the 0.50% setting for the overnight rate target, matching widespread expectations. While the growth projections for 2016 and 2017 were trimmed, the outlook remains constructive as the projected recovery in Canada’s economy takes hold. The return to full capacity was moved ahead to mid-2017 but Governor Poloz explained that the shift was within the range anticipated in July. The bank is comfortable with the current state of policy and the economy, content to remain on the sidelines as the forces unleashed by 50 basis points in rate cuts in the first half of this year continue to ease the adjustment to lower oil and commodity prices.

BoC Poloz praised the constructive evolution of the economy, answering a question on just how high the debt to income ratio can go. He noted that Canada does not have much experience with ratios this high, but that other countries run higher ratios (not that he’s saying higher ratios are ok, he added). But he is pleased the Bank identified the right forces in the economy when things were uncertain in January. Those forces continue to growth, he noted, and the constructive evolution gets the economy back to better growth. On the CAD, he said the currency has been moving roughly in-line with the terms of trade (ToT), which it has done historically. He noted that “roughly” comes with lots of advisement, as the zone around ToT movements is not trivial. Further solidifying his status as one of the most entertaining of the current crop of central bankers, he likened these moves to walking a dog with a stretchy leash — you get footprints (from the dog) that are not straight like a railroad track. His Q&A has ended.”

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 27th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 27th October 2015.



EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD failed to hold above its weekly uptrend line on a clean break below the 1.11 resistance. Now that the 6 month uptrend-line has been lost, we need to see if the 1.0990 low, as seen last week, will be retested before price makes an attempt towards 1.11 and possible 1.1170 in a return move. Momentum analysis remains towards the downside, although, I would expect to see some short term buying interest if the Stochastic can create a bull cross near the Stch.Os. 20 line. My multi-day conclusion on EURUSD price action is for a retest of Friday’s low (1.0996) before a return move towards 1.11 –1.1170.

MACRO EVENTS & FX NEWS



Main Macro Events Today

• GBP U.K. Gross Domestic Product: U.K. GDP numbers for Q3, with the quarterly growth rate expected to slow to 0.6% (med same) from 0.7%.

• USD Durable Goods Orders: September durable goods data is out today and should reveal a 0.8% (median -1.0%) decline for orders on the month with shipments unchanged and inventories growing by 0.1%. This compares to respective August figures of -2.3% for orders, -0.2% for shipments and unchanged for inventories. Data in line with analyst forecast would leave the I/S ratio for the month at 1.66 from 1.65 in both August and July.

• USD Consumer Confidence: October Consumer Confidence is out today and should reveal a 104.0 (median 102. headline, up from 103.0 in September and 101.3 in August. Other confidence measures have improved in October with Michigan Sentiment rising to 92.1 from 87.2 and the IBD/TIPP Poll rising to 47.3 from 42.0.


FX News Today

Greek bailout payment delayed, Greece is once again behind in the implementation of the agreed reforms and so far only 14 of the 48 “milestones” have been implemented. A delay of the reform plan and the payout likely also means a delay in the reform of the banking and finance system, including the recapitalization of banks.

Commodities were on the defensive, but the CAD was range bound near 1.3160 since the open. The lack of price action came as oil prices were steady near $43.5 – $44.00 and as the risk backdrop remains quiet.

USDJPY given back some gains, the pair has gained considerable ground since last week, as the dovish ECB and the aggressive PBoC combined to rally the dollar broadly. With the China rate cut having many market players up the BoJ’s ante to add to QE this week, USD-JPY gains may well hold.

Gold been relatively steady,

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.