Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:56 am

Date : 11th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th September 2017.


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FX News Today

The French term “force majeure” literally translates as “greater force,” a legal clause that is included in contracts to remove liability for natural and unavoidable catastrophes. Looking ahead to the aftermath of back-to-back major hurricanes on both the Gulf and Florida coasts, there may be no escape from the human and economic disruption inflicted on those regions but also the economic wreckage that is likely to make studying the economic outlook more of a dismal science near-term. In addition, Equifax’s cyber attack and data breach of 143 mln credit monitoring customers represents another potentially chilling temporary hit to economic and financial well being. In addition, ongoing North Korea brinkmanship, recent Trumpian bipartisanship, the gold surge/dollar index collapse to post-election levels and skidding yields, all smack of a perfect storm for the Fed into the September 19-20 meeting.

United States:The U.S. economic calendar starts off fairly leisurely, building with inflation data by midweek and followed up with flurry of retail, Empire, production, inventory and U. Michigan sentiment data Friday. The CPI is expected to post respective gains of 0.3% and 0.2% for the headline and core figures for August. Retail sales are estimated edging up 0.1% overall, and up 0.5% ex-autos. Industrial production is expected to rise 0.2% in August, but estimates ranged from 0.6% to -0.6%. NFIB small business optimism and JOLTS job openings are due (Tuesday). Next are the MBA mortgage series (Wednesday), EIA and PPI, which is set to rebound 0.3% in August from -0.1%, while the core reading is seen up 0.2% from -0.1%. The Treasury budget gap is expected to widen to -$131.0 bln in August (Wednesday) from -$42.9 bln. CPI will be a focal point (Thursday), forecast to rebound 0.3% in August from a 0.1% reading in July. Initial jobless claims may retrace their steps -8k to 290k (Thursday) following the 62k surge to 298k after Harvey, before being distorted again by Irma’s impact, making a wreck of underlying employment trends for some time to come.

Canada: In Canada, this week is all about housing, with four reports distributed across the week. August housing starts (Monday), are expected to edge lower to a 220.0k pace from 222.3k in July. The Teranet/National Bank HPI for August is due Wednesday. The July new housing price index (Thursday) is seen rising 0.2% m/m after the matching 0.2% gain in June. Existing home sales for August are expected on Friday. The “Bank of Canada’s Re-Examining the Conduct of Monetary Policy: Towards the 2021 Inflation-Target Renewal Workshop” will take place on Thursday. Looking further ahead, Deputy Governor Lane delivers a speech on September 18, while Governor Poloz speaks on September 27.

Europe: With the ECB decision on the future of asset purchase deferred until October, and no data releases scheduled that could change the outlook decisively, this should be a relatively quiet week, leaving markets to focus on geopolitics. Asset purchases will continue at the current pace until the end of the year and even if Draghi announces in October that purchase volumes will be scaled back from January, the fact that the ECB’s balance sheet continues to expand and that the central bank remains extremely reluctant to commit to an end data for QE means monetary policy should remain accommodative for some time to come and rate hikes are unlikely to become an issue before 2019. Data releases this week mainly focus on final inflation readings for August and are not expected to bring a major surprise, with higher oil and food prices the main reasons for the uptick in headline rates. The German HICP (Wednesday) expected to be confirmed at 1.8% y/y, the Spanish headline rate (Wednesday) to come in at 2.0% y/y and final French and Italian numbers (Thursday) to confirm preliminary readings of 1.0% y/y and 1.4% y/y respectively. The data calendar also has Eurozone industrial production data for July. Events include a German 10-year Bund sale on Wednesday.

UK: The calendar this week is highlighted by the September BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting (announcing Thursday). No change outcome is expected, albeit with the two dissenters from the previous two meetings, Saunders and McCafferty, repeating their votes for a 25 bp hike in the repo rate to reverse the post-Brexit “emergency” cut and return the repo to 0.5%.Data this week will be highlighted by the August inflation report (Tuesday). The headline CPI rate expected to pick up to 2.8% y/y from 2.6% in July. Such an outcome would be consistent with BoE projections, which policymakers see as a temporary period of above-2%-target inflation, having been induced by the sharp depreciation of the pound in the wake of the vote to leave the EU in in late June 2016. Monthly labor data covering July and August is also due (Wednesday), while official retail sales data for August is also due (Thursday), and a tepid growth of 0.2% m/m is anticipated after 0.3% in the month prior.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar is again sparse in terms of top tier data. August food prices are due Wednesday, which may be of minor interest. GDP for Q2 is due on the 21st of this month. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next on September 28, in which no change to the current 1.75% rate setting through year-end, is expected.

Japan: In Japan, July machinery orders (Monday) are seen rebounding 4.0% m/m from the 1.9% drop in June. previously. This would be the first increases in three months. The July tertiary industry index (Monday) is expected up 0.2% m/m from unchanged in June. This service sector index has increased only once so far this year, climbing 1.4% in April. The September MoF business outlook survey (Wednesday) is forecast to improve to 5.0 from -2.9. August PPI (Wednesday) should heat up to 2.9% y/y from 2.6% previously. Revised July industrial production will be released on Thursday. The preliminary reading fell -0.8% versus June’s 2.2% increase.

China: China August industrial output (Thursday) is pencilled in at a 6.5% y/y clip from 6.4% after gains in the manufacturing PMIs. August fixed investment is likely to have slowed to an 8.1% y/y rate from July’s 8.3%. August retail sales should accelerate to a 10.6% y/y pace from 10.4% previously.

Australia: a thin calendar is highlighted by employment (Thursday), expected to reveal a 20.0k gain in August after the 14.0k rise July. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.6%, matching the 5.6% in July. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Deputy Governor Guy Debelle speaks at a Workshop at King & Wood Mallesons, Sydney (Thursday).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:08 am

Date : 12th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th September 2017.


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FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market rally continued in Asia overnight, as North Korea jitters continue to ease and risk appetite returns. Hurricane Irma seems to have caused less damage than some feared and while Irma and Harvey will leave their mark on the U.S. economy, markets once again quickly settle down. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for a fourth day and the Nikkei gained 1.20% so far, with U.K. and U.S. stock futures also moving higher. The buoyant mood on equity markets will keep European yields underpinned after yesterday’s broad move higher. Yields remain at relatively low levels, and mostly clearly below the average seen over the past three month. The downtrend that has been in place since the middle of July remains intact. The local calendar today is highlighted by U.K. inflation numbers ahead of the BoE meeting on Thursday and Data this week will be highlighted by the August inflation report (Tuesday).

FX Update: The dollar carved out new rebound highs during the Asia session. USDJPY continued to lead the way as markets react to a sense of reduced risks stemming from North Korea and Hurricane Irma, with the former having refrained from further missile testing and the latter now having weakened to a tropical storm rating while tentatively proving to be less damaging than feared to the U.S. mainland. USDJPY logged a one-week high at 109.58, which is over two big figures up on Friday’s low at 107.31. EURUSD clocked a three-session low at 1.1945. The dollar has since come off from its highs, while USDCAD ebbed to a two-session lows just under 1.2100. With a good chunk of the pre-weekend risk-off positioning having been reversed, and with the likelihood of further sabre-rattling antics from North Korea as the rogue nation draws nearer to nuclear ICBM capability, we don’t recommend following the dollar rebound, especially in the case of USDJPY. Sterling markets will have UK inflation data today, where we expect the headline CPI rate to lift to 2.8% y/y from 2.6%.

New Zealand: The NZDUSD spiked up around 40 pips on the latest opinion poll results from NewsHub-Reid as reported by Reuters today morning, with an increase up to 0.7274. The National Party seems to be on the lead with 4% rise up to 47.3%, while Labour Party fell 1.6% down to 37.8%. These results seem to be against the recent increasing popularity we saw for Labour Party. The elections are due on September 23.

Canada: Stocks and yields surged as risk appetite came back into play. Canada underperformed in both markets, with the jump in the S&P/TSX only half that of Wall Street and most indexes in Europe. The rise in GoC yields also was smaller than in the U.S. though a little larger than in Europe. The loonie see-sawed but finished little change on the day. Housing starts were the only item on the calendar, and did not have any lasting impact on the market.

IMF’s Langarde and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang met this morning in Beijing along with World Bank President Jim Yong Kim and other Heads of global Organizations. As Reuters reported, Chinese Premier stated earlier that “There are increased positive factors in the global economy and signs of warming-up in some aspects. But at the same time, the fragility persists and unstable and uncertain factors are still increasing,” hence he believes that Free trade can be consider as a good way for resolving any issues raised on recovery procedure and will also help Companies transform and give variety of option to consumers as well. Meanwhile he also address in his speech, the China’s economy growth, by saying that growth seen in the 1st half will be continue.Mrs Christine Lagarde on the other side mentioned that despite the fact that the global economy is recovering, it could easily be derailed by policy uncertainty and the threat of protectionism.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Inflation data – The headline CPI rate expected to pick up to 2.8% y/y from 2.6% in July. Such an outcome would be consistent with BoE projections, which policymakers see as a temporary period of above-2%-target inflation, having been induced by the sharp depreciation of the pound in the wake of the vote to leave the EU in in late June 2016.The Core PPI expected to pick a bit at 2.5%y/y from 2.4% y/y.

US JOLTS – NFIB small business optimism and JOLTS job openings are due today and expected to fall at 104.8 from 105.2 and 5.96M from 6.16M respectively

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:17 am

Date : 13th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th September 2017.


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FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market rally lost some momentum during the Asian session. Japanese markets still moved higher, after Wall Street posted record highs, but the Hang Seng saw profit taking as the index neared a key resistance level and developers and financial stocks came under pressure. CSI 300 and ASX 200 are posting slight gains, but U.K. and U.S. stock futures are in the red, and investors may need a catalyst before pushing things further. The European calendar has final inflation data from Germany and Spain, U.K. labour market data and Eurozone production numbers. After yesterday’s higher than expected U.K. inflation reading, U.K. wage growth in particular will be in focus as the BoE starts its 2 day meeting ahead of tomorrow’s policy announcement.

FX Update: The dollar rebound rally has lost gas, with EURUSD edging out a two-day high and the buck trading softer versus sterling, the Australian dollar, among others, although USDJPY still managed to eke out a 12-day high. The dollar had been shorted into the weekend, when concerns about the impact of Hurricane Irma and fresh ratcheting up in geopolitical tensions were at an apotheosis, and driving the rebound on Monday and Tuesday had largely been an unwinding of this positioning. This now seems to have run its course. Global stock markets seem to have seen a similar dynamic. EURUSD has recouped to the upper 1.19s after basing yesterday at a four-session low at 1.1926. Cable, which had a fire lit beneath it by yesterday’s above-forecast UK CPI data, extended to a fresh one-year peak, this time at 1.3315. USDJPY, meanwhile, clocked a 12-day high at 110.29. EURJPY posted a 20-month high at 132.01, reflective of the under-performance in the yen..

German August HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.8% y/y, in line with the preliminary number and up from 1.5% y/y in the previous month. The breakdown confirmed that a renewed pick up in energy prices was largely to blame for the uptick in the headline rate, with prices for heating out rising 10.4% y/y in August, compared to just 5.4% y/y in July and 0.9% y/y in June. Petrol price inflation equally jumped higher. Energy aside annual food price inflation as well as higher prices for clothing and shoes underpinned the uptick in the HICP rate, which leaves the German number pretty much in line with the ECB’s definition of price stability. For the Eurozone as a whole though price developments are still looking more muted and with the strong EUR adding to downward pressure on prices the ECB remains very cautious as it prepares for another reduction in monthly asset purchase volumes.

Main Macro Events Today

UK ILO Unemployment & Average Earnings – Monthly labor data covering July and August is due today, where it is expected that the July ILO unemployment rate edging down to a 42-year low rate of 4.4% after 2.5% in June, though average household income growth is expected to remain relatively benign, at sub-inflation levels for 2.3% y/y in the three months to July, and at 2.1% y/y in the ex-bonus figure.

EU Industrial Data – Eurozone industrial production data for July expected at 3.4%y/y from 2.6% y/y.

US PPI and EIA Oil – Today we also have the MBA mortgage series, EIA and PPI, which is set to rebound 0.3% in August from -0.1%, while the core reading is seen up 0.2% from -0.1%. The Treasury budget gap is expected to widen to -$131.0 bln in August from -$42.9 bln.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:04 am

Date : 14th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th September 2017.


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FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets declined amid profit taking. Markets have come quite a way up from recent lows and it seems investors need another catalyst before taking things further. The Nikkei is down -0.25%, the Hang Seng lost -0.62% so far and U.K. and U.S. futures are also in the red ahead of today’s SNB and BoE announcements. Both central banks are widely expected to keep policy on hold, but the BoE’s statement in particular will be watched carefully after this week’s higher than expected inflation number. Gilt yields moved higher yesterday, while the FTSE 100 closed in the red, despite slight gains on other European stock markets. Bund yields also moved up slightly but closed below the 0.4% mark and so far at least it seems the ECB is successful in dampening the impact of its move towards a further reduction in monthly asset purchase volumes, even though yields should have bottomed out. Central bank meetings aside, the European calendar has plenty of ECB speak as well as final inflation data from Italy and France. Released overnight, the U.K. RICS house price balance came in higher than anticipated.

China: China’s retail sales today morning, industrial production and fixed investment were disappointing in August. Retail sales slowed to a 10.1% y/y pace in August from the 10.4% rate of expansion in July. But year to date retail sales growth was 10.4% in August, matching July. Industrial production growth was 6.0% y/y in August versus the 6.4% rate in July. But year to date production dipped to 6.7% from 6.8%. Fixed investment (excluding rural households) slowed to a 7.8% y/y growth pace in August from 8.3% in July. But foreign direct investment did improve to a 9.1% y/y pace in August from 2.3% in July, after contracting 3.7% in May and falling 4.3% in April. The CSI 300 is 0.1% firmer, the Shanghai comp is also 0.1% in the green while the Shenzhen comp is up 0.2%.

Australia: The employment surged 54.2k in August following a revised 29.3k gain in July (was +27.9k). The increase was more than double expectations. The details were strong – full time jobs grew 40.1k after a revised 19.9k drop (was -20.3k) while part time jobs improved 14.1k following a 49.1k rise (was +48.2k). The unemployment rate was 5.6% in August, matching the rate in July. The participation rate rose to 65.3% in August from 65.1%. AUDUSD jumped to 0.8015 from 0.7975 on the report, and has edged slightly lower to 0.8006.

US reports: a 0.2% August U.S. PPI headline with a 0.1% core price increase undershot estimates thanks to a lean 0.1% service price increase, with a flat trade service figure and a 0.3% gain for transportation and warehousing services. We saw the largely expected figure for goods prices, with a 3.3% energy price rise and a 1.3% food price drop that left a 0.5% rise for the goods component overall. It is tentatively expected a hurricane-led 0.5% PPI rise in September with a 0.2% core price increase thanks to a pop in gasoline prices and an assumed rise in service prices. The y/y PPI rise should climb to 2.6%, after rising to 2.4% in August from 1.9% in July, while the y/y core PPI rises to 2.1% from 2.0% in August and 1.8% in July. Oil prices have largely moved sideways in 2017, though we’ve also seen a drop in the dollar and a stronger global economy that has boosted commodity prices, after the opposite 2016 pattern of dollar and oil price gains, but global growth weakness. Upward 2017 price pressure has been limited by the absence of an inventory recovery despite a petro-rebound that is trimming excess capacity.

Main Macro Events Today

SNB announcement– The Swiss central bank will publish the latest quarterly policy review today and is widely expected to keep key policy settings unchanged. Officials have welcomed reduced pressure on the CHF, but still see volatility in forex markets and with the ECB inching only very gradually towards the end of QE and geopolitical risks on the rise again, the SNB is firmly on hold. as it watches developments in the Eurozone and Brexit negotiations.

BOE announcement – September BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting is due today, in which no change outcome is expected, albeit with the two dissenters from the previous two meetings, Saunders and McCafferty, repeating their votes for a 25 bp hike in the repo rate to reverse the post-Brexit “emergency” cut and return the repo to 0.5%. Not much change is anticipated in the tone of the guidance from that delivered in August, when the central bank was able to expand its view in its quarterly inflation report, which brought downward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts. The market consensus is for the BoE to refrain from change policy settings until 2019.

US CPI & Unemployment Claims – CPI will be a focal point today, forecast to rebound 0.3% in August from a 0.1% reading in July, while core should remain subdued at 0.1%; on a core y/y basis CPI should remain in the 1.7% area, well shy of the Fed’s 2.0% target. Initial jobless claims may retrace their steps -8k to 290k following the 62k surge to 298k after Harvey, before being distorted again by Irma’s impact, making a wreck of underlying employment trends for some time to come.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:36 am

Date : 15th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th September 2017.


Image

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed. The Nikkei is up 0.58%, as Japanese markets shrugged of yet another missile test conducted by North Korea. Hang Seng and CSI 300 is moving sideways and the ASX is currently down -0.71%. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down. The surge higher in Sterling following yesterday’s BoE warning that a rate hike may be necessary in coming months, already saw the UK100 heading south yesterday and the index closed down -1.14% on Thursday, with the dip in futures suggesting further losses today. Gilts jumped 8.5 bp yesterday and may still have a way to go, and while Bunds are likely to outperform again, peripherals may feel the pressure from a fresh wave of geopolitical tensions. Today’s local calendar is pretty quiet, with only Eurozone trade numbers.

US reports: revealed big Harvey-boosts for August CPI and weekly initial claims, with Irma-boosts still in the pipeline. For CPI, we saw big gains of 0.402% for the headline and 0.248% for the core, with hurricane-boosts via a 2.8% energy price rise and a 4.4% spike for lodging away from home, with additional firmness across the major components. For claims, we saw a 14k drop to a lofty 284k, after a 62k Harvey-surge to 298k at the start of the month that included a 52k surge in Texas. It is expected that Irma will lift next week’s claims by 26k to 310k, as a Florida surge is partly offset by a Texas drop-back. Since Irma struck during the BLS survey week, a 100k hurricane hit to the September nonfarm payroll figure is anticipated that leaves a 90k rise.

UK: The pound has seen little bounce following the spike-rally in the wake of the BoE’s laying of the groundwork for a rate hike, the first time the Old Lady has done this in a decade. The last time the BoE hike rates was in July 2007, when it lifted the repo to 5.75% from 5.50%. Now, following a once-in-a-lifetime financial crisis and a status-quo disrupting vote to leave the EU, the BoE is at long last set pull on the rate hike lever again, in this case to reverse last August’s so-called post-Brexit vote “emergency” cut by lifting the repo rate to 0.50%. Up until last week, the consensus had been for the BoE to remain on hold through to 2019. The pound is expected to will remain bid for now, given this backdrop,however there is a general concern given the risk of bad news from the Brexit front. Former BoE governor, Mervyn King, who was a Brexit advocate, warned that the UK was likely to fall out of the EU without a new trading deal in place.

Main Macro Events Today

US Retail Sales – Retail sales are pegged to rise 0.1% headline in August vs 0.6% in July, though ex-autos may increase 0.5% indeed, there is some downside risk, as Harvey has already shown up in lower auto sales. The Empire State index is expected to dive to 18.2 in September from 25.2 in August,

US Industrial Production & UoM Sentiment – The Industrial Production may sink 0.1% in August; capacity use may accordingly dip to 76.8% from 76.7%. Preliminary Michigan sentiment may bounce to 95.1 in September vs 96.8 in August and business inventories are seen rising 0.2% in July vs 0.5%.

MPC Vlieghe Speech – MPC Member Vlieghe is due to speak about UK Economy and monetary Policy at the Society of Business Economists’ Annual Conference, in London, at 8:50 GMT.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:51 am

Date : 18th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th September 2017.


Image

FX News Today

Signs of rising price pressures, including a resurgence in oil, are bringing central banks back into play, and the markets are responding. The pound was given extra rocket by a BoE dove Vlieghe who turned hawkish, saying that a hike could come “as early as in the coming months.” This was notable as Vlieghe has been one of the most dovish members on the policy committee (the only dissenter in favor of cutting rates in July 2016, before the Brexit vote). The markets are now discounting a rate hike at the November MPC meeting. Meanwhile, the FOMC meets this week and all eyes will be on the dot-plot and whether one more tightening remains in the cards for this year. Other monetary policy meetings include the BoJ, the Philippines BSP, the Taiwan CBC, and Bank Indonesia. Meanwhile the German General Elections are on the doorstep next weekend.

United States: The U.S. focus will be firmly on the FOMC this week (Tuesday, Wednesday), and particularly QT and the dot plot. Despite the various risk events of late, the Fed is widely expected to announce the start of the unwind of the balance sheet, which will be very gradual in nature as per the path it laid out in June. Of more importance will be the dot-plot forecasts and what they suggests about rate moves this year and through 2019. Data is relatively light this week, with a concentration on housing numbers, with manufacturing and trade price reports as well. However, hurricane disruptions will limit their usefulness.August housing starts (Tuesday) are projected to dip modestly to 1.150 mln after tumbling 4.8% to 1.155 mln in July. Existing home sales for August (Wednesday) should bounce 0.7% to a 5.47 mln unit pace, after falling 1.3% in July to 5.44 mln. Sales have fallen in 4 of the 7 months to date, thanks in large part to lack of inventory. The September NAHB homebuilder sentiment survey (Monday) should be unchanged. Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for September (Friday) will be impacted. The Philly Fed manufacturing index (Thursday) is expected to be little changed at 18.0 in September.

Canada: Canada’s calendar features key economic data releases this week that will fine tune BoC expectations for the October 25 meeting. The CPI (Friday) is expected to expand 0.2% in August (m/m, nsa) . Retail sales (Friday) are expected to grow 0.3% in July (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% rise in June. Manufacturing sales (Tuesday) are expected to fall 1.5% in July (m/m, sa) after the 1.8% drop in June. A 4.9% plunge in export values in July after the 5.0% drop in June drives our projection for July manufacturing shipments. Wholesale sales (Thursday) are expected to fall 1.0% in July (m/m, sa) after the 0.5% drop in June. The international securities transactions report for July is due Monday. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Lane delivers a speech on Monday titled “How Canada’s International Trade is Changing with the Times”. His speech will be available at 14:00 ET.

Europe: Central banks and geopolitical risks continue to take center stage. Comments from ECB speakers this week, including Draghi, as well as the ECB’s latest economic bulletin, are likely to confirm that the central bank is heading for another QE extension but with reduced monthly purchase volumes. All the while, the German general election on September 24 is coming into view. Polls are giving Merkel’s conservative CDU/CSU party a very large lead, but not enough votes for an absolute majority. Hence, Germany is almost certainly headed for a yet another Merkel-led coalition government, and most likely once again with the socialist SPD as the junior partner. The first round of confidence surveys for September in the form of ZEW and PMI readings will be important for the overall outlook. The September ZEW Economic Sentiment index (Tuesday) is seen rising to 12.0 from August’s 10.0 print. Meanwhile, a moderation in the manufacturing PMI to 57.2 from the prior 57.4 is expected, while the services reading is expected to rise slightly to 54.9 from 54.7 in August. The data calendar also has German producer price inflation for July, the final reading of French Q2 GDP and Eurozone current account and BoP data for July.

UK: Sterling markets will continue to digest the BoE’s unexpectedly hawkish statement of last Thursday, which laid the groundwork for a rate hike before year-end. A 25 bp rate hike at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting is widely expected, which would reverse the “emergency” post-Brexit vote rate cut from August 2016. November is the logical choice for what would be the first tightening by the BoE since 2007, since this is the month that the next quarterly edition of the inflation report is due. The October EU Summit will have come and gone by then, and, hopefully, the Brexit process will be clearer. The calendar this week is fairly quiet. September data will start to make an appearance, including the Rightmove house price index (Monday) and the CBI industrial trends survey (Friday). While there is a chance for a post-summer activity in the housing market, hence the house price data expected to show fresh signs of slowing, a process which has been driven in recent months by a drop off in demand with average household finances having been pressured by the rise in inflation and weak pay awards. The CBI survey, meanwhile, should reaffirm that the production sector of the economy remains in relatively rude health, aided by exchange rate competitiveness and strong global growth. August retail sales data are also due (Wednesday), where a modest 0.2% m/m lift is anticipated.

New Zealand: has Q2 GDP (Thursday), which expected to grow 0.9% after the 0.5% gain in Q1 (q/q, sa). The current account is expected to shift to a -NZ$100 mln deficit from the NZ$244 mln surplus in Q1. The general election will take place on Saturday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next on September 28. No change is expecred to the current 1.75% rate setting through year-end. Grant Spencer takes over as acting governor on September 27 for a six month stint. Governor Wheeler is retiring as his term ends. A permanent successor will be appointed in 2018.

Japan: Japan is closed Monday for Respect-for-the Aged Day. The BoJ begins its 2-day policy meeting (Wednesday) with the announcement (Thursday). No changes are expected to the Bank’s ultra-loose policy, given the cool inflation backdrop. The August trade report (Wednesday) should see a narrowing in the surplus to JPY 50.0 bln from 421.7 bln previously. The July all-industry index (Thursday) should fall 0.2% m/m versus the prior 0.4% increase..

Australia: The minutes to the September meeting are due Tuesday. Assistant Governor (Economic) Luci Ellis speaks at the Australian Business Economists (ABE) conference, Sydney (Wednesday). Governor Lowe discusses “The Next Chapter” at the American Chamber of Commerce in Australia Business Briefing, Perth (Thursday). The Q2 housing price index (Tuesday) highlights a sparse calendar of economic data this week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:24 am

Date : 19th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th September 2017.


Image

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed overnight. Japanese markets got a boost by speculation of a snap election, after Abe confirmed reports that he is considering a vote ahead of schedule. Catch up trade after yesterday’s holiday also underpinned a nearly 2% rise in the Nikkei. Elsewhere markets are marginally in the red as markets turn cautious ahead of tomorrow’s Fed announcement. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also little changed. returned from yesterday’s holiday. The calendar gets more interesting today with the release of German ZEW investor confidence, which we expect to show a slight improvement in the expectations reading to 12.0 from 10.0 in the previous month.

BoE Governor Carney walked back hawkish guidance, saying that “any prospective increases in Bank Rate would be expected to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, and be consistent with monetary policy continuing to provide substantial support to the economy.” He also stressed that there “remain considerable risks to the UK outlook, which include the response of households, businesses, and financial markets to developments related to the process of EU withdrawal.” More specifically on Brexit, Carney argued that the “de-integration effects” of Brexit can be expected to be “inflationary.” Carney is evidently displeased with the markets reaction to the BoE’s statement last week, where markets seemed to run with the hawkish soundbites while ignoring the dovish soundbites. The pound, on the ebb after the outsized gains of last Thursday and Friday, declined further as markets responded to Carney’s remarks. Prospects for a “dovish tightening” should keep a lid on the pound’s upside potential.

BOC Gov Council Member Lane held out a gradualist fig leaf to the market, or at least that is how his speech and comments were interpreted by GoCs and the loonie, as yields dropped and USD-CAD jumped to two-week high. The Deputy Governor, in a Q&A with the audience following his speech, said the BoC will take the Canadian Dollar into account “strongly,” according to Bloomberg news. The Bank does not know how the economy will react to higher rates. The policy rate is still low relative to neutral levels, and rates below neutral are still appropriate given risks. The current level of interest rates are “exceptional.” Unlike the Fed, BoC speakers have spoken with one voice, so Lane’s outing is interesting following last week’s defense of the Bank’s communication strategy between July and September and Wilkins’ reminder that all meetings are “live.” Lane himself reiterated that all meetings are live. There is plenty here to suggest they will take a breather next month and perhaps shift to a more gradualist strategy. That being said, more firm data would tip the balance in favour of a rate hike, given that each announcement is “live.” Note that Poloz speaks on September 27th, and he will take questions from the press. Today’s speech does significantly trim the odds for a move next month however.

Main Macro Events Today

German ZEW – A slight improvement in the expectations reading to 12.5 from 10.0 in the previous monthis anticipated, indicating that optimists still outnumber pessimists and that confidence stabilised slightly in line with stocks, after being hit by geopolitical risks in the previous survey round. Even if the ZEW comes in much weaker than anticipated, it would only support the arguments of the doves at the ECB, who are reluctant to commit to an end date for QE just yet, while a stronger than expected number is unlikely to prompt a majority for Weidmann’s push to end QE.

US Housing Stats – August housing starts are projected to dip modestly to 1.150 mln after tumbling 4.8% to 1.155 mln in July. Risk is to the downside due to disruptions from Harvey.

Canada Manufacturing – Manufacturing shipments values, are expected to reveal a 1.5% m/m drop in July after the 1.8% decline in June. This projection is supported by a tremendous 4.9% plunge in export values during July. Prices played a role however, with the IPPI down 1.5% (m/m, nsa). Hence the decline in the manufacturing shipment volume measure may be less pronounced.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Wed Sep 20, 2017 5:08 am

Date : 20th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th September 2017.


Image

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed and fluctuating at high levels, as trading volumes are low and investors await the Fed decision The MSCI Asia Pacific index has gained around 22% this year, despite escalating tensions with North Korea. FTSE 100 futures are slightly higher, while U.S. futures are in the red, ahead of the Fed, which is widely expected to announce the start of the balance sheet unwind, or QT (quantitative tightening), while leaving its rate posture unchanged. The BoJ will announce its decision tomorrow, and central banks and geopolitics remain driving factor for markets. Reports that there is still no broad majority at the ECB for a commitment to an end date for QE saw yields correcting again in the Eurozone yesterday, while the BoE’s flagging of the need for a rate hike in coming months has kept Gilt yields underpinned. Today’ calendar includes U.K. retail sales, but is unlikely to take the focus away from the Fed.

German producer price inflation higher than expected. The annual rate rose to 2.6% y/y in August, from 2.2% y/y in the previous month. A renewed uptick in energy prices was the main factor and energy prices rose 0.4% m/m, fuel prices 0.9% m/m and annual rates rose to 2.7 %y/y and 3.9% y/y respectively. Annual food price inflation fell back slightly, but at 5.3% y/y remains very higher and PPI excluding energy rose to 2.6% y/y from 2.5% y/y. Overall PPI remains below the highs seen earlier in the year, but seems to have bottomed out and the data will back the arguments of the hawks at the ECB, who are fighting for the end of additional asset purchases

U.S. reports: revealed upside surprises for both housing starts and trade prices in August, alongside a wider than expected Q2 current account deficit. For starts, we saw August declines of 0.8% for starts and a big 10.2% for completions, but we also saw a 5.7% pop for permits, a strong trajectory for starts under construction, and upward starts revisions that left a solid Q3 path. For trade prices, we saw big 0.6% August headline import and export price increases led by oil imports and nonagricultural exports with a likely Harvey-boost, before an assumed September lift from Irma. The U.S. current account gap widened to $123.1 bln from $113.5 (was $116.8) bln in Q1 thanks to a surge in the deficit on secondary income.

Canada’s manufacturing drop yesterday is suggestive of tame July GDP growth, at best. Factory shipment volumes fell 1.4% in June (values dropped 2.6%). We have penciled in a 0.1% rise for July GDP estimate, which would follow the 0.3% gain in June. A 0.5% decline in wholesale shipment volumes is projected, while retail sales volumes are seen improving 0.3%. Housing starts grew 4.5% to a 222.0k pace in July from 212.5k in June. Hence, the contribution from construction production should be positive. The outlook for mining, oil and gas production is to the downside. Energy export values fell 3.7% m/m in July after plummeting 11.3% m/m in June. However, the manufacturing report’s petro and coal shipments measure did edge up 0.6% in value after the hefty 7.0% drop in June. A 0.1% rise in July GDP would leave the measures on track for a 2.5% pace in Q3 (q/q, saar) which we expect for the separate quarterly measures. The BoC’s base-case estimates projected a slowing in GDP growth during the second half of this year.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Retail Sales – August retail sales data are due today, where expected a modest 0.2% m/m lift.

FOMC Rate Decision and Conference – FOMC began its 2-day meeting and is widely expected to announce the start of the balance sheet unwind, or QT (quantitative tightening), while leaving its rate posture unchanged. Remember this is a quarterly meeting that includes the release of economic/price forecasts (SEP – Summary of Economic Projections) and a Yellen press conference. Of importance to the rate outlook is the dot-plot and the nuances in the Fed chair’s remarks. The Committee was still expecting a total of three rate hikes this year at the June 13, 14 meeting, and that’s expected to be the case this time too, keeping the door open for a tightening at the December 12, 13 meeting. It is also expected that the FOMC will maintain the consensus view of three hikes in 2018. While the Fed believes there should be little market reaction to the gradual and well telegraphed unwinding of the balance sheet, it should be “like watching paint dry,” said Yellen in June, officials may be too complacent in their overall assessment on the market responses to policy actions.

US Existing Home Sales – Existing home sales for August should bounce 0.7% to a 5.47 mln unit pace, after falling 1.3% in July to 5.44 mln. Sales have fallen in 4 of the 7 months to date, thanks in large part to lack of inventory.

NZD GDP – The Q2 GDP, expected to grow 0.9% after the 0.5% gain in Q1 (q/q, sa).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:48 am

Date : 21st September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st September 2017.


Image

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed. The Fed confirmed the launch of QT and kept rates unchanged, but left the rate hike for December on the table, along with consensus for three more hikes next year. The BoJ meanwhile left policy on hold, as expected, but one dissenter signalled that further easing may be necessary to bring inflation back to target. The Nikkei is up 0.16%, after a narrowly mixed close on Wall Street, the Hang Seng managed to recover some of its early losses, but at 5:37GMT was down -0.07% and the ASX underperformed with a -0.84% loss. FTSE 100 futures are slightly higher, U.S. futures marginally in the red and it seems investors are still digesting central bank decisions and are reluctant to push world markets even higher for now. Bund futures dropped sharply in after hour trade on the Fed announcement and Bund yields, which closed down yesterday, are likely to push higher in opening trade, resuming the new uptrend, as the ECB is heading for an announcement on QE reductions. The local calendar has U.K. public finance data as well as the ECB’s latest economic report. ECB’s Draghi, Praet and Smets are all set to speak.

New Zealand’s GDP grew 0.8% in Q2 (q/q, sa) following an upwardly revised 0.6% gain in Q1 (was +0.5%). The increase in Q2 matched expectations. But GDP grew at a 2.5% y/y pace in Q2, only matching the growth rate in Q1 and falling short of the 2.6% to 3.5% annual rates seen in 2016. Indeed, growth is on track to slow to a 2.5% pace for all of 2017 from the 3.6% pace in 2016. Of course, the economy continues to grow, supported by low interest rates. Yet inflation growth remains in the target range (CPI slowed to 1.7% y/y from 2.2%) and the RBNZ expects a decline in coming quarters as the effects of higher food and fuel prices dissipate.

FOMC: announced balance sheet runoff in October and left rates unchanged, as expected. The vote was 9-0. The FOMC also left a rate hike on the table for December, with 12 of 16 FOMC members projecting such. Also, 11 of 16 see at least three hikes next year. The hurricanes are not expected to have much impact on the medium term. The FOMC did lower the long run outlook on rates to 2.8% from 3.0%. The median funds rate for 2018 is at 2.1%, the same as in June’s outlook, though the 2019 median slipped to 2.7% from 2.9%, suggesting a slower path of tightening. The policy statement the Fed noted the labor market continued to strengthen while economic activity had been rising moderately. Fed Chair Yellen reiterated the FOMC statement noting the economy will continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming years. Meanwhile, the labor market remains healthy and payroll gains are well above the rate needed to absorb entrants. Inflation has continued to run below the 2% goal, but the low rate doesn’t reflect broad economic conditions. In Q&A she noted that FOMC has hiked rates this year on the belief the economy is performing well. She added the balance sheet runoff has begun too, as such stimulus is no longer needed to such an extent. The improvement in the labor market has been “substantial” and “vast,” she stressed and including a number of data points supporting her case, including jobs, the unemployment rate, the quit rate, etc. The Fed also sees sufficient strength in spending and growth to keep the job market strong over the medium term, hence the rate hikes are “well justified.” The Fed is committed to the 2% inflation goal, and they will balance the risks of potentially tightening too much and undermining the inflation objective, or not tightening enough and letting inflation get out of control. She finished her presser with these comments.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Public Borrowing – UK expected to post a deficit on Public Sector Net borrowing at 6.5B from the surplus seen last month at -0.8B.

CAD Wholesale Sales – Wholesale sales are expected to fall 1.0% in July (m/m, sa) after the 0.5% drop in June.

US Jobless Claims & Philly – The Philly Fed manufacturing index is expected to be little changed at 18.0 in September. The index has fallen in the last three months after surging 16.8 points to 38.8 in May. Meanwhile Jobless Claims should post a rise of 16K up to 300K for last week.

ECB – ECB President Draghi is due to speak at the European Systemic Risk Board annual conference, in Frankfurt at 13:30 GMT.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:53 am

Date : 22nd September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd September 2017.


Image

FX News Today

European Outlook: North Korea tensions are once again leaving their mark on markets, as a stronger Yen weighed on the Nikkei. Hang Seng and ASX 300 were also under pressure, as S&P cut the Hong Kong’s sovereign rating a day after downgrading China. Australian ASX200 meanwhile managed to rebound from a seven months low and is outperforming today after three straight days of losses. U.S. and U.K. stock futures, however, are also heading south as investors eye geopolitical risks and further clues from Fed speakers. Today’s European calendar has preliminary PMI readings for the Eurozone, which we expect to remain broadly stable at high levels. Final French Q2 GDP numbers are also not expected to bring a major surprise. The U.K. CBI industrial trends survey is also due. In Germany Sunday’s election is casting its shadow, although with everyone expecting Merkel to remain in office it is only her choice of coalition partner and the result for the right wing AFD that is creating excitement in what has been dubbed a very boring election campaign.

FX Update: The dollar has traded softer, correcting some following the sharp gains seen in the wake of the Fed’s hawkish turn on Wednesday. EURUSD nudged above 1.1960, up over a big figure form the post-Fed low, and USD-JPY tipped to a low of 111.65, correcting after rallying in eight of the previous nine sessions and putting distance in from yesterday’s two-month peak at 112.71. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also posted losses. While the BoJ’s reaffirmation at its meeting this week of its commitment to yield curve control and ultra-accommodative monetary policy in general may be an endorsement for yen bears, North Korea’s advance to becoming a nuclear power remains a wildcard risk for yen bears, as the Japanese currency will typically rally amid any heightening in geopolitical tensions. This week’s trading of verbal barbs between Trump and Kim won’t have done unnoticed by market participants.

Trump: New executive orders on N. Korea that target individuals and companies who trade with the rogue nation. He confirmed that the PBoC has ordered Chinese banks to cease business with the region, while the effort will also target N. Korea’s shipping and trade networks. The leaders of Japan and S. Korea backed the tighter stranglehold, and they plan to discuss further means to halt N. Korea’s ability to produce a nuclear arsenal. Though Trump remained open to further dialogue with N. Korea, it’s not clear that this will reduce tensions in the meantime as prior UN actions prompted further missile salvos over Japan.

US Reports Yesterday: Revealed a robust 23.8 September Philly Fed figure that exhibited the same hurricane updraft seen in last Friday’s Empire State report, and we now expect the average of the producer sentiment surveys to reclaim the 57 cycle-high in September that was seen in February and March, versus still-lofty 55-56 figures over the interim. We also saw a surprising 23k drop in initial claims to a still-elevated 259k in the week of Irma, which was also the BLS survey week, though the mass-displacement of individuals and loss of electrical power may have delayed applications for claims. Claims are averaging 274k thus far in September and we expect a 272k average when the month is over, versus an August average of 246k in August. We expect a 90k September nonfarm payroll rise that assumes a 100k Irma hit. We also saw a 0.4% August rise in leading indicators that left a 12-month string of gains.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone PMI – Consensus is for an unchanged composite PMI reading for September, with an expected correction in the manufacturing PMI likely to be compensated for by a slight rise in the services sector reading. German ZEW investor confidence already improved again in September, while today’s preliminary consumer confidence number rose to the highest reading since 2001.

CAD CPI – Expected to grow 0.2% in August relative to July, leaving a pick-up in the annual growth rate to 1.6% in July from 1.2% in July and the year low 1.0% pace in June. Gasoline prices snapped higher in August, which drives our projection. The annual growth rates for the core measures were either steady or slightly firmer in July. CPI-trim growth was 1.3% y/y in July from 1.2% in June, CPI-common was 1.4% from 1.4% and CPI-median was 1.7% from 1.6%. The average of the three core measures ticked higher to 1.5% y/y from the 1.4% in April, May and June.

May and Draghi Speeches – UK PM May is speaking in Florence and rumours are swirling of a speech to cement her authority at home and with her own party as well as an olive branch to the EU to finally kick start the Brexit negotiations – watch sterling to day and for follow through on Monday. Draghi has a speech earlier in Dublin and is likely to avoid direct comments on monetary policy, but always one to watch.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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