Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Thu Feb 23, 2017 5:29 am

Date : 23rd February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd February 2017.


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FX News Today

European Outlook: The stock rally started to fizzle out yesterday. The DAX didn’t manage to hold gains above 12000 and closed slightly below and while the FTSE 100 managed gains above 7300 Eurozone peripherals headed south, and U.S. stocks closed narrowly mixed, which was followed by a disappointing session in Asia, where the Nikkei was -0.04% down at the close. Yesterday’s FOMC minutes showed no sign of urgency for a March hike, even if “many” officials saw the chance of a hike “fairly soon”. Bund futures moved up from lows in after hour trade, but while FTSE 100 futures are moving higher, U.S. stock futures are still narrowly mixed. Bund gains should continue to be capped by a reversal of safe haven flows, as French political jitters eased somewhat and French yields came down sharply on Wednesday. Still, Eurozone breakup fears will continue to haunt bond markets. Strong data out of the U.K. and Germany yesterday failed to dampen the uptick in Bund and Gilt futures. Today’s calendar includes detailed German GDP at the start of the session, followed by French business confidence and the U.K. CBI retailing survey.

Fedspeak: Fed governor Powell largely toed the line on gradual hikes, based on the economy roughly meeting its forecast path, with risks to the outlook now more in balance after a period of Fed patience. He expects stable economic growth and inflation back up to its 2% target over the next couple years, while a further modest drop in unemployment would equate with further labor market tightening. Powell believes the Fed is close to its employment objective and now requires non-monetary policies to encourage participation. On shrinking the balance sheet, he said there’s a time to reconsider the balance sheet, but first must get “well away” from zero rates. He expects that rates can be raised again “perhaps reasonably soon,” while it’s very difficult to incorporate fiscal changes into economic forecasts. March is on the table in terms of a possible rate hike and one option is to raise rates soon if the economy continues on its current path. He would prefer to keep the portfolio stable until rates are high enough to “react to a downturn,” while shrinking the balance sheet is a way to remove accommodation.

FOMC minutes: “many” officials saw chance of a hike “fairly soon” if the economy remained on track. That’s not a new sentiment, however, and doesn’t hint strongly at March. A “few” officials thought that a hike at an upcoming meeting would give the Committee flexibility. Several judged the risk of a “sizable undershooting of the longer run normal unemployment rate was high” and if that were the case a more aggressive stance might be needed. But, inflation was still running short of the Fed’s goal, a few saw downside risks. “A couple of participants expressed concern that the Committee’s communications about a gradual pace of policy firming might be misunderstood as a commitment to only one or two rate hikes per year.” And while there was no formal discussion of the balance sheet, participants “also generally agreed that the Committee should begin discussions at upcoming meetings about the economic conditions that could warrant changes in the existing policy of reinvesting proceeds from maturing Treasury securities.” While March is on the table, the Fed and the markets will be in wait and see mode, watching the data and financial conditions for clues.

UK: UK second-estimate Q4 GDP was revised upwards in the q/q figure, to 0.7% growth from the 0.6% preliminary estimate and the 0.6% growth of Q3. The y/y comparison was revised downwards, however, to 2.0% from 2.2%, also below the 2.2% y/y growth clip reported in the previous quarter. The ONS stats office highlighted that the better than expected q/q figure was driven by an improvement in the manufacturing sector, which rose 1.1%, while the big service sector put in a steady growth rate of 0.7%. The contribution form exports were stronger than expected, rising 4.1% q/q, which followed a 2.6% q/q contraction in exports in Q4. Imports fell 0.4% q/q. Business investment fell 1.0% q/q. For 2016 as a whole, the economy rose 1.8%, below the preliminary estimate of 2.0% growth. An inventory drawdown and weaker exports accounted for the downward revision in the annual figure.

Canada: Canada’s retail sales a set-back for December GDP: The 1.0% drop in retail sales volumes was a surprise but not a shock, as higher gasoline prices were seen lifting both the total and ex-autos sales value figures. Instead, broad-based volume declines resulted in the first decline since June. The drop-in retail sales volumes is a source of downside risk to our 0.3% estimate for December GDP. But we are maintaining that projection given upbeat manufacturing, wholesale and energy figures. Wholesales grew 0.9% and manufacturing surged 2.3%. Housing starts improved 10.2% to a 206.3k unit pace in December. Hence, the contribution from construction production should be positive. Energy export values grew 15.9% m/m in December although higher prices were behind the gain. Yet the manufacturing report’s petroleum and coal shipment values grew 11.6%, driven by firmer volumes as a number of refineries resumed production after maintenance and retooling work in September and October. An as-expected monthly gain would leave a 2.0% GDP growth pace in Q4 (q/q, saar), overshooting the BoC’s 1.5% estimate and providing additional reassurance to the bank that the pick-up in the economy anticipated for 2017 is on track.

Main Macro Events Today

US Crude Oil – Last week’s EIA Crude Oil Inventories expected to fall to 3.4M from 9.5 M last time.

US Initial Jobless Claims & House Price – Initial jobless claims may bounce back 8k to 247k for the week ended February 18. FHFA home price index is expected to rise 0.37% to 242.2 in December, along with EIA energy.

RBA – RBA Governor Lowe will testify before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, in Sydney.

Fedspeak – Atlanta Fed centrist Lockhart will be “Looking Back on 10-years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta” from 8:35 ET.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Fri Feb 24, 2017 5:20 am

Date : 24th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th February 2017.


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FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south. Investors peddled back in China amid concerns that recent gains were overdone and the ASX ended the weak lower as metal prices dropped. Metal and machinery groups also dragged down Japanese markets, and the Topix closed with a 0.4% loss. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are equally in the red and global markets remain wobbly and investors in cautious mode. In Europe, the rebound in Sterling continues to weigh on the FTSE 100 and core yields continue to head south, with France now catching up again, as election jitters eased somewhat. Other Eurozone peripheral markets, however, continue to underperform, highlighting that Eurozone breakup fears have not gone away and will continue to haunt Draghi. Today’s economic calendar is pretty quiet, but includes French consumer confidence, Italian business confidence as well as BBA loans for house purchases from the U.K.

Fedspeak: Dallas Fed’s Kaplan reiterated the Fed should move sooner rather than later, suggesting he might support a tightening next month if the jobs data cooperates. He’s on the hawkish end of the voting spectrum so it may not take much for him to call for a hike. But, he also said that accommodation can be removed gradually and patiently. That indicates he might be able to go along with no change next month too, especially if the data aren’t terribly strong. He also wants to study shrinking the balance sheet as rate normalization progresses. He projects 2017 growth in the 2% region and sees the economy near full employment. Additionally, Fed’s Lockhart, said the data supported 2-3 hikes this year. He favors a natural run off of the balance sheet, in further comments. He sees the Fed’s portfolio shrinking to about $1.5 tln to $2 tln over a multi-year time frame, from the current $4.5 tln. Based on the Fed’s dots, the neutral rate has declined and hence the stopping point for rate hikes is likely lower than it was in the past. But much will depend on the inflation trends. On regulations, he expects Dodd-Frank to be softened, not scraped.

US reports: an increase of 6k in U.S. initial claims to 244k in the BLS survey week, which extended the prior 4k increase to 238k to leave claims still just above the 43-year low of 233k last November. There was as extremely tight claims path over the six weeks since the period of holiday volatility came to a close. Claims are well below the 263k average in 2016, and certainly well below the 6-month high of 275k as recently as mid-December. Claims are averaging 239k in February, versus higher prior averages of 247k in January, 258k in December, 252k in November, 258k in October, and 254k in September. The 244k February BLS survey week reading sits at the low end of recent BLS readings of 237k in January, 275k in December, and 233k in November. U.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.4% to 242.6 in December after rising 0.7% to 241.6 in November. Home prices are up 6.2% y/y. Seven of the nine regions surveyed posted gains on the month.

Crude Oil and Canadian dollar: Crude Oil fell to $54.44 from $54.89 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 564k bbl rise in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 3.0 mln bbl increase, though API reported a 900k bbl decrease after the close on Wednesday. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies, seen down 1.0 mln bbls actually fell 2.6 mln bbls, while distillate stocks were down 4.9 mln bbls, versus expectations for a 0.5 mln bbl fall. Refinery usage fell to 84.3% from 85.4%. The pull-back in crude oil following the EIA data lifted USDCAD to 1.3113 from 1.3094.

Main Macro Events Today

CA CPI – Canadian CPI is expected to accelerate to a 1.7% y/y pace in January from 1.5% y/y in December. The CPI is expected to expand 0.4% in January versus December, as gasoline prices continued to track higher. Also, prices in general tend to turn higher beginning in January. The Bank of Canada has expressed guarded optimism that CPI will gradually move back towards the 2% target. However, Poloz said rate hikes are still on the table as long as downside risks to the inflation target still exist. The December CPI report did not lessen the downside risk, but did not exacerbate it either.

US New Home Sales – January new home sales data expected to be 6.3% headline increase that brings the pace up to 570k for the month after a 10.4% dip in December to a 536k pace. The NAHB composite dipped to 67 in January from 69 in December but the MBA purchase index managed to notch an increase for the month with a 2.5% increase.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Mon Feb 27, 2017 6:40 am

Date : 27th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th February 2017.


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FX News Today

Political jitters have underpinned a safe haven bid in bonds through the month, while ongoing euphoria over “Trumponomics” has boosted equities to, or near, record highs. The strength of the bullish price action so far this year leaves the markets susceptible to a selloff, especially with a number of major risk events ahead. President Trump’s State of the Union (Tuesday) is the immediate wild card. National elections in the Netherlands (March 15) will be closely monitored. Other key events in March include FOMC and ECB meetings, and the reinstitution of the U.S. debt limit. There’s also an EU summit and the possible triggering of Brexit Article 50. Additionally, French presidential candidates are vying for attention ahead of elections on April 23. German politics also are coming into view, even well before the September vote.

United States: U.S. markets rallied last week on a combination of factors, but gains are at risk this week with President Trump’s State of the Union address (Tuesday) the biggest threat to the euphoria in equities. Politics will continue to dominate the headlines near term. President Trump delivers his first State of the Union address (Tuesday) and that could be a big wild card for the markets which are looking for specifics on the administration’s fiscal plans, especially with respect to deregulation, tax reform, including the border adjustment tax, infrastructure spending, and healthcare. The data slate is heavy with key reports on tap for the new year. The volatile January durable orders (Monday) are projected rebounding 1.0%. It will be interesting to see if orders bounce given the surge in investor enthusiasm on the “Trump effect.” The second look on Q4 GDP (Tuesday) should accelerate to a 2.2% pace from the 2.1% gain in the Advance report, supported by an expected consumption boost. Also slated is the Chicago PMI (Tuesday), seen jumping back to 54.0 in February after the unexpected drop to 50.3 in January. February consumer confidence (Tuesday) should edge up to 112.0 after dropping 1.5 points to 111.8 in January. March kicks off with the February ISM manufacturing index (Wednesday), expected to slide to 55.5 after rising 1.5 points. The reports on income and consumption for January (Wednesday) will help fine tune the Q4 and Q1 GDP outlooks. The ISM services index for February completes the week’s reports.

Fedspeak: will be closely monitored, but it’s likely to be too revealing regarding the March 14, 15 FOMC meeting result. Fed Chair Yellen highlights (Friday), but she’s speaking at an event before the Executives Club of Chicago. She won’t prejudge the upcoming decision, especially without benefit of the January jobs report (March 10). The hawkish Fed voter Kaplan starts off the week (Monday) with a speech. Another hawk, Philly Fed’s Harker speaks on the economic outlook (Tuesday). Also, the increasingly hawkish nonvoters’ SF Fed’s Williams and Bullard will also be on tap (Tuesday). Kaplan speaks again (Wednesday). The dovish governor Brainard will address the economic outlook (Wednesday). Fed hawk Mester speaks on leadership (Thursday). Friday is a busy day with the dovish voter Evans and hawkish nonvoter Lacker speaking on a panel. VC Fischer will discuss Fed policy decision-making at the Chicago Booth School’s annual policymaking forum. The Beige Book (Wednesday) for the upcoming FOMC will be released too. It should reiterate a moderate growth trajectory, continued tightening in the labor market, and some nascent signs of price pressures.

Canada: The BoC’s rate announcement is the main event (Wednesday). No change to the current 0.50% rate setting is projected. Recent economic data has added further reassurance that the projected recovery slated for this year is progressing roughly as anticipated, which should be enough to keep the cautiously optimistic tone from January intact. There are several important reports this week. Topping the list is Q4 GDP (Thursday), expected to grow at a 2.0% pace after the 3.5% rebound in Q3. December GDP (Thursday) is seen expanding at a 0.3% m/m clip following the 0.4% surge in November. The Q4 current account deficit (Wednesday) is projected to narrow to -C$9.0 bln from -C$18.3 bln in Q3, thanks to the dramatic return to a merchandise trade surplus in November and December. The industrial product price index (Tuesday) is expected to rise 0.7% m/m in January after the 0.4% gain in December, as gasoline prices surged higher during the month. The annual capital expenditures survey (Tuesday) will provide the always interesting business investment intentions, this time for 2017. The Markit manufacturing PMI for February is due Wednesday.

Europe: This week’s round of data releases will confirm the picture of stronger growth and rising inflation, with the Eurozone headline rate expected to come in bang in line with the ECB’s definition of price stability as below but close to 2%. But while this should be a time for jubilation for Draghi and finally a time the central bank to relax, mounting political risks mean the central bank’s helping hand is still needed. French election jitters may have eased somewhat and in Germany the euphoria over Socialist candidate Schulz is not only denting Merkel’s chances, but has also cut into support for Eurosceptics on the right end of the spectrum, the Dutch election (March 15) is drawing nearer and after markets were burned in last year’s U.S. and U.K. votes they are clearly taking no chances. This week’s data calendar focuses on the last set of confidence data for February as well as preliminary inflation numbers for February. Final PMI readings (Thursday and Friday) are unlikely to bring major surprises and are expected to confirm the Manufacturing PMI at 55.5 and the services reading at 55.6. These numbers were much stronger than initially expected and together with the robust German Ifo point to the risk of an upside surprise in the Eurozone ESI Economic Confidence indicator.

UK: The calendar this week is highlighted by the February PMI surveys. We expect the manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) to dip slightly, to a reading of 55.5 after 55.9 previously. The construction PMI has us anticipating a 52.0 reading, down fractionally from 52.2 in January. Other data includes the BoE’s report on lending for January. The BoE’s easing measures since the Brexit vote last year have driven many lending rates to historic lows, which should underpin the data.

Japan: Japan’s docket kicks off Tuesday with several important releases. Preliminary January industrial production is expected to rise 0.5%. A monthly decline hasn’t been posted since July, an encouraging sign for growth, although there’s downside risk from the slightly firmer yen this year on safe haven flows given political uncertainties in the U.S. and Europe. January retail sales are expected to remain in contraction. January housing starts should post a 3.0% y/y pace, down from 3.9% in December. January construction orders are due Tuesday as well. They’ve been choppy over the past year, but have slowed considerably since the 16.3% y/y pace in September, posting a -6.0% y/y pace in November, but rebounding 7.1% y/y in December. The MoF Q4 capex survey (Wednesday) is forecast jumping to a 1.0% y/y rate from -1.3% in Q3. The final February Markit manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) is estimated to have improved to 53.0 from January’s 52.7. The rest of the week’s releases come on Friday. January national CPI is expected to have accelerated slightly to 0.4% y/y from 0.3% y/y overall, but unchanged at a -0.2% y/y rate on a core basis. Tokyo February CPI likely slipped to -0.2% y/y overall. Inflation remains a real uncertainty for Japan, but signs of an emergence of global price pressures could be filtering through into Japan too. January unemployment is seen holding at 3.1%, with the job offers/seekers ratio steady at 1.43. January personal income and PCE are due, with the latter expected to fall to a -0.5% y/y clip from -0.3% y/y in December. Finally, February consumer confidence is penciled in at 43.5 from 43.2.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is data rich this week, in contrast to a poor RBAspeak slate. The highlight is Q4 GDP (Wednesday), expected to rebound 0.6% after the 0.5% tumble in Q3. The Q4 current account deficit (Tuesday) is seen narrowing to -A$7.0 bln from -A$11.4 bln in Q3. The trade report (Thursday) is projected to show a A$4.0 bln surplus in January after the A$3.5bln surplus in December. Building approvals (Thursday) are seen falling 0.5% m/m in January after the 1.2% drop in December. There is nothing from the Reserve Bank of Australia this week. The next event is the March 7 meeting, which we expect to reveal no change to the 1.50% rate setting.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has the January trade report (Tuesday). Trade prices are due on Wednesday. The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is on March 23rd. The RBNZ is expected to hold the OCR steady at 1.75%

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Tue Feb 28, 2017 6:05 am

Date : 28th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th February 2017.


Image

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly down, with Japan outperforming and managing a marginal gain. Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong are heading for the biggest monthly advance since August, but after hopes of a “phenomenal” tax package from Trump helped to push markets higher earlier in the month, investors remain cautious ahead of Trump’s speech in Congress today. The Nikkei closed with marginal gains today, after moving down from earlier highs as the Yen strengthened. U.K. stock futures are rising, but U.S. futures are slightly in the red. Oil prices are up and the front-end Oil is trading at USD 54.16 per barrel. The European calendar today has French and Italian inflation data for February, French consumer spending and Q4 GDP, as well as the Swiss KOF.

Fedspeak: Dallas Fed’s Kaplan is confident that U.S. economic growth will be higher than 2% in 2017, while monetary policy is currently “highly accommodative” and the Fed should start removing that accommodation slowly. He noted that even by raising rates a “few times” this year would leave that policy stance accommodative and the Fed should hike sooner than later. Kaplan also believes the U.S. can go “a little deeper” in reducing the jobless rate before creating price pressures. This is about par for the course from moderate voter and won’t really move the needle on the policy outlook, though March remains a “live” meeting. Furthermore, he said there’s not a question that low rates are distorting. But, he still expects low rate to prevail for a long time and even cautioned that ramping up too quickly causes distortions too. And he reiterated that when the Fed normalizes rates, the surprise could be that it does so at a lower rate than has historically been the case. Indeed, he thinks the neutral rate might be in the 2.25% to 2.5% area.

US reports: U.S. durable goods orders rebounded 1.8% in January, stronger than expected. The firm 1.8% US durable orders rise reflected a 6.0% pop for transportation orders despite declines for Boeing orders and vehicle assemblies, as reversed the opposite divergence in December, alongside a 0.2% decline in orders ex-transportation that matched assumptions. We saw a firm round of equipment data but lean shipments and inventories, and the mix modestly lifted both Q4 and Q1 growth prospects. Pending home sales index drops 2.8% to 106.4 in January after rebounding 0.8% to 109.5 in December, which followed November’s 1.3% tumble to 108.6. It’s the lowest level in a year. But, contract signings are up 2.7% y/y versus December’s -2.0% rate. Declines in the West (-10.3%) and Midwest (-5.2%) paced the weakness and offset small gains in the Northeast (2.2%) and South (0.5%). The National Association of Realtors said insufficient supply are making for a lull in pending home sales, while worries over rising mortgage rates, as well as declining home affordability (particularly in the West) could be impacting too.

Main Macro Events Today

US President – US President Trump delivers his first State of the Union address to Congress.

US GDP – The second release on US Q4 GDP is out today and we expect to see the headline revised up to 2.2% from 1.9% in the first release and 3.5% in Q3 of last year. Upward revisions should be broad based but we expect the major drives to be an $11 bln upward revision to consumption and a $6 bln upward revision to inventories.

US Consumer Confidence – February consumer confidence will be out and should reveal a headline increase to 112.0 from 111.8 in January and 113.3 in December. Other measures of confidence have been mixed on the month with Michigan Sentiment dipping to 96.3 from 98.5 in January.

CAD IPPI – Industrial product price index (IPPI) expected to expand 0.5% m/m in January after the 0.4% gain in December. Gasoline prices were sharply higher in January, commodity prices were modestly firmer but the loonie was stronger against the U.S. dollar. The IPPI is expected to post a 2.4% y/y rate of increase in January after the 2.2% y/y gain in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Wed Mar 01, 2017 6:35 am

Date : 01st March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 01st March 2017.


Image

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets moved mostly higher in Asia overnight, with Japan leading and posting the biggest gain in two weeks, as the Yen dipped following hawkish comments from Fed officials, which have boosted speculation of a March rate hike. U.S. and FTSE 100 futures are also moving higher. Trump’s eagerly awaited speech in Congress yesterday was short of details, but his first address to Congress seemed to convey a softer tone, designed to win over the political center. Stock markets seem to react in a positive way, but Japan aside any gains in Asia were muted as investors eye the Fed. The European calendar has German labour market and inflation data today, with the latter likely to bring the German headline rate above the ECB’s upper limit for price stability. Final manufacturing PMI readings are not expected to bring major surprises and confirm preliminary numbers. The U.K. has BoE lending data as well as the CIPS manufacturing PMI, which is expected to fall back to 55.5 from 55.9 in the previous month.

Fedspeak: SF Fed’s Williams said a March hike is very much on the table and should get “serious consideration.” The economy has made enormous progress and he’s confident that the economy will continue to continue growing at a healthy pace. “We’re very close to achieving our dual mandate goals. Yet monetary policy essentially still has the pedal to the metal,” and he thinks it’s time to start ease off the gas to avoid a “too hot” economy. Nationally, we’ve hit full employment, he said, but we’re still moving toward the 2% inflation goal. Williams, a non-voter this year, was one of the more dovish on the Committee, but he shifted to a more hawkish stance earlier last year.

US reports: revealed a disappointing 1.9% Q4 GDP growth clip, and the weak January trade and inventory data in the advance indictor report prompted a downward bump to our Q1 GDP estimate to 2.0% from 2.2%. Also, February consumer confidence pop to 114.8 that left the highest reading since July of 2001, and the GDP report included upward income revisions that will also raise consumption prospects into 2017. The producer sentiment climb is proving particularly intense, with a February Chicago PMI surge to a 2-year high of 57.4 that likely reflects an estimated 5% February vehicle assembly rate bounce. The Richmond Fed surged to an 11-month high of 17.0 from 12.0 in January with strength in the jobs components, and the ISM-adjusted measure surged to a 7-year high of 57.6 from 54.8 in January.

Main Macro Events Today

German Inflation – German headline HICP inflation is expected to top the ECB’s upper limit for price stability and rise to 2.1% y/y with the preliminary February reading, from 1.9% y/y in January. . If German number comes in as expected, the Eurozone headline rate will likely pick up to at least 1.9% thus adding to pressure on Draghi ahead of next week’s council meeting.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI – February ISM manufacturing index expected to slide to 55.5 after rising 1.5 points to 56.0 in January, the best reading since November 2014.

CAN. Interest Rate Decision – BoC’s rate announcement is the main event today. No change to the current 0.50% rate setting is projected. The announcement stands alone, with a lack of press conference or Monetary Policy Report to fine tune.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Thu Mar 02, 2017 5:55 am

Date : 2nd March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd March 2017.


Image

FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market rally continued in Asia overnight, as investors continue to celebrate Trump’s speech in Congress, which was short on details, but struck a more cautious tone and managed to revive risk aversion. The ASX outperformed and closed with a 1.3% gain, while the Nikkei was up 0.9% at the close. FTSE 100 and DAX managed to close above key levels of 7300 and 12000 respectively, but U.K. and U.S. futures are narrowly mixed, indicating that at these high levels investors are starting to get cautious again and may want to see more details from Trump, especially as the Fed is eying a March rate hike and the combination of strong growth and rising inflation is putting pressure on Draghi in Europe. Today’s preliminary Eurozone HICP could well hit 2.0%, after stronger than expected German numbers yesterday. The calendar also has Swiss Q4 GDP, German import prices, and Eurozone PPI and labour market data.

Fedspeak: Dallas Fed’s Kaplan reiterated the view that rates should rise in a gradual way, a process the Fed should begin to stay ahead of inflation heating up and avoiding the need to hike rates dramatically. He views economic growth as sluggish by historical standards, but relatively healthy given demographics. Kaplan is taking part in a moderated Q&A session that should soon be drowned out by the Beige Book. There is nothing new in these pronouncements so far to provide any insight into timing of the next hike, as March odds improve.

US income report: revealed a 0.4% January income rise that beat assumptions after expected boosts in the Q3 and Q4 figures. Yet, we also saw a lean 0.2% consumption rise with a 0.3% “real” drop that undershot estimates after big boosts in Q4 to leave a disappointing report. The U.S. ISM rose to a 30-month high of 57.7 from 56.0 in January and 54.5 in December, as the index continues to climb from the 47.9 expansion-low in December of 2015 toward the 60.0 cycle-high in February of 2011. Yesterday’s ISM report adds to the upside risk for our 210k February nonfarm payroll estimate, though the employment component fell to 54.2 from a 29-month high of 56.1. The ISM-adjusted average of the major producer sentiment surveys to rise to the same 56 cycle-high previously seen in February and March of 2011, versus 54 in January, 53 in December, 52 in November, 51 in October and 50 in 4 of the 5 months through September. A factory sector rebound that is lifting sentiment, consumer confidence and small business optimism in the face of rising oil prices, a reversal in the inventory headwind, and hopes for deregulation and fiscal stimulus in 2017, might be consider as a possible scenario. The economy still faces lingering headwinds from a sluggish world economy and a strong dollar.

Canada: Bank of Canada Remains Attentive to Uncertainties. The Bank of Canada delivered the widely-expected lack of change to the 0.50% rate setting. The recent run of encouraging economic data was downplayed, with material excess capacity highlighted. There was little change from the cautiously constructive outlook in January, which in our view keeps a potential easing on table while maintaining the base case scenario for no change in rates for an extended period. Hence, the Bank maintained a focus on uncertainty to the outlook. while downplaying improvement in CPI and what is shaping up to be firmer growth in Q4 than they had anticipated. The bounce in January CPI was due to temporary factors while challenges still faced by exports apparently temper any optimism that would stem from an overshoot of their Q4 GDP projection of 1.5%. Also, employment gains may be evident, but wages and hours worked still reflect persistent slack in Canada. The announcement was a bit more focused on caution versus optimism than we had anticipated. But Poloz has been very dovish and repeatedly been burned on the emergence of the long-awaited recovery, so an abundance of caution is quite consistent with how the Bank has operated in recent years.

Main Macro Events Today

GBP Construction PMI – February PMI in Construction expected to be unchanged from 52.2 last time.

Euro Core CPI – Eurozone HICP inflation is set to reach 2.0% and thus hit the upper limit for price stability with today’s February release, after higher than expected German and Italian numbers this week. The German rate jumped to 2.2% y/y and while base effects from energy prices are the main reason for now, Bundesbank President Weidmann highlighted that inflation projections, should be revised considerably higher, not just for the Eurozone.

CAD GDP – Canadian GDP is expected to slide to 0.3% after rising 1.0% to 0.4% in January.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Fri Mar 03, 2017 6:07 am

Date : 3rd March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd March 2017.


Image

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets headed south in Asia overnight, after the Trump induced stock market rally started to run out of steam in Europe and the U.S. yesterday. The Topix fell for the first time in three days as the Yen advanced and investors turn cautious after pushing indices to very high levels and the prospect of tighter monetary policy comes back into focus. Electronics companies and banks retreated ahead of Yellen’s speech on the outlook for the economy to executives in Chicago today. In Hong Kong developers were hit by concerns of a March rate hikes. The Dow Jones still managed to close above 21000 yesterday, in Europe FTSE 100 and DAX held the 7300 and 12000 levels, but once again markets are reluctant to push things further at the current junction. Oil prices are slightly higher on the day, but still below USD 53 per barrel. The calendar has German and Eurozone retail sales, as well as the final reading of Italian Q4 GDP, but the focus is on the final round of Eurozone services PMIs as well as the U.K. services PMI.

Fedspeak: Fed governor Powell states: “we are as close to our mandate as we have been in a very long time, with a March hike “on the table” for discussion, with potential for 3 rate hikes this year as he’s indicated in the dots. In a CNBC interview, he doesn’t want to see the “animal spirits” get into the real economy as the outlook reaches a balanced state. He doesn’t see any excess in the credit markets or leverage per se, with solid economic momentum. Global growth risks are lower, with growth and inflation ticking higher, which is supportive of the outlook. Fiscal risks are also clearly upward, though awaiting details and not incorporated into his forecasts. We are very close to our 2% inflation target, which is a symmetric goal (neither above, nor below). Powell notes that shrinking balance sheet will take some time once rates are “well above” zero, done in a very predictable almost automatic way. He wouldn’t comment more specifically as the topic is currently under discussion at the Fed. Overall, he seems to be singing from the same hymn sheet as the others who’ve turned more hawkish of late.

US reports: 19k initial claims plunge to a 44-year low of 223k in the week of President’s Day leaves a super-tight level of claims over the seven weeks since the period of winter holiday volatility ended. Claims are averaging just 234k in February, versus prior averages of 247k in January, 258k in December and 252k in November. The 242k February BLS survey week reading sits at the low end of recent BLS readings of 237k in January, 275k in December, and 233k in November. The last time claims were as tight as yesterday’s figure was the 222k reading in March of 1973, when covered employment was just 56.4 mln, or 41% of the recent 138.9 mln.

Canada: Better than expected Q4 GDP and December GDP was taken in stride, given the dark view of recent upbeat data advanced by the BoC in Wednesday’s announcement. The loonie lost further ground amid widening Canada-U.S. yield spreads and a more than $1 pull-back in the price of crude oil. Canada’s Q4 GDP growth was driven by net exports and consumption. Consumption spending barely slowed in Q4, running at 2.6% after the revised 2.7% pace in Q3. Consumption added 1.9% to Q4 GDP after the 1.1% addition to Q3. But net exports were the engine of GDP growth, making a 5.2% contribution after the 1.2% add in Q3. Exports improved by only 1.3% in Q4 after the 9.4% bounce in Q3, while imports plunged 13.5% after a 4.8% gain. The imports decline was at least partly due to a one-time factor: the one time import of an oil module for an oil project in September left a big drop in October import values.

Japan: Japan’s core CPI grew 0.1% y/y in January, marking the first expansion since the 0.1% gain in December of 2015. The core CPI (which excludes perishables, but not gasoline) bottomed out with -0.5% y/y declines in July, August and September of 2016. Hence, the BoJ’s extraordinary accommodation has had some impact, but underlying inflation is still a long way from the 2% goal. Total CPI grew at a 0.4% y/y rate in January after the 0.3% pace in December. But the Tokyo core CPI saw a 0.3% y/y drop in February, matching the 0.3% y/y decline in January. Total Tokyo CPI fell 0.3% y/y after a 0.1% gain. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate slipped to 3.0% in January from 3.1% in December. Household spending tumbled 1.2% y/y in January after the 0.3% decline in December. USDJPY has slipped to 114.21 from a 114.58 peak late in the North American session.

Main Macro Events Today

Fed’s Yellen – Fed Chair Yellen speaking at an event before the Executives Club of Chicago.

Fedspeak – Friday is a busy day for FOMC members, with the dovish voter Evans, Powell and hawkish non-voter Lacker speaking on a panel. Also, Fischer will discuss Fed policy decision-making at the Chicago Booth School’s annual policymaking forum.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI –February service sector producer sentiment is out today to close out the month’s series of reports. It is expected the headline to hold steady at 56.5 from last month. February producer sentiment has been very strong with increases in all the early month measures. This strength should allow the ISM-adjusted average of all releases to climb to a cycle high matching 56 from 54 in January and 53 in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Mon Mar 06, 2017 5:49 am

Date : 6th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th March 2017.


Image

FX News Today

Joining the broadening chorus, Fed Chair Yellen confirmed on Friday, “At our meeting later this month, the Committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate.” That’s about as close as you’ll get to Fed semaphore for “we are going to hike in March, unless something extraordinary thwarts us.” Of course, all eyes will now be riveted on Friday’s February jobs report, which would have to severely miss to prevent the FOMC from pulling the trigger on the 15th.

United States: The economic calendar gets down to brass tacks with the employment report, released with just a week to go before the March FOMC decision. As Yellen implied, we’re going to get a hike in March unless the data fail to move in line with expectations. A 215k February nonfarm payroll increase is expected to beat the 156k December headline, but to fall short of the 227k January rise, with a 220k private payroll gain. The report faces upside risk from rising producer sentiment and consumer confidence, 44-year lows in initial claims, a surging stock market, and a solid ADP surge. As for data, the rest of the week, January factory goods orders are forecast to rise 1.4% from 1.2% in January (Monday), while inventories may rise 0.2%. Risk is to the upside given stronger durables. The trade deficit is expected to expand in January (Tuesday) to -$49 bln, while consumer credit may increase to $20 bln in January as well. MBA mortgage market data is due (Wednesday) and the February ADP Employment report should post a solid 220k gain for the month, but below the January figure of 246k. Q4 productivity is set to be revised up to 1.5% (Wednesday) from 1.3%, while wholesale sales may bounce 0.8% and inventories sink 0.1%. Import prices may rise a mild 0.1% in February (Thursday) in part due to the firm dollar, though oil prices picked up last month, but export prices may sink 0.2%. Initial jobless claims are forecast to rebound 24k to 247k (Thursday) after marking 44-year lows last week. In addition to the employment report (Friday), the February Treasury budget gap may widen to -$195 bln.

Fedspeak: winds down for the blackout period ahead of the March 15 FOMC, but not before Minneapolis Fed dove Kashkari discusses his favorite topic of “Too Big to Fail” (Monday) before the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).

Canada: There is plenty of economic data on offer this week in Canada, with the trade and jobs reports the highlight of a full calendar. The January trade balance (Tuesday) is expected to improve to C$1.0 bln from C$0.9 bln in December. A 20k gain in employment (Friday) is projected for February after the 48.3k rise in January, while the unemployment rate is seen steady at 6.8%. Housing starts (Wednesday) are anticipated to slow to a still firm 200k growth rate in February from 207.4k in January. Building permit values (Wednesday) are seen falling 1.0% in January after the 6.6% tumble in December. An 82.5% reading is projected for capacity utilization (Thursday) following 81.9% in Q3. Productivity growth is expected to moderate to a 0.3% pace (q/q, sa) following the unsustainable 1.2% surge in Q3. The new home price index (Thursday) is projected to deliver a 0.2% m/m gain in January on the heels of the 0.1% rise in December. IVEY PMI for February is due Tuesday. While top tier economic data is abundant this week, Bank of Canada speakers are absent. The next scheduled appearance is from Deputy Governor Schembri on March 22nd, while we do not hear from Governor Poloz until March 28th.

Europe: After a robust round of Eurozone PMI numbers and especially the uptick in HICP inflation to 2.0%, the focus is on the ECB meeting (Thursday), which will also bring the updated set of staff projections. We don’t expect huge changes to the growth outlook, although better than anticipated PMI and Ifo numbers have lifted the chances of stronger than hoped Q1 GDP. Data releases this week are unlikely to change the outlook dramatically. German manufacturing orders will likely attract the most attention, as it is the only forward looking number in the calendar. Eurozone Q4 GDP, by contrast, is the most backward looking and expected to confirm growth rates of 0.4% q/q and 1.7% y/y, in line with preliminary numbers. The focus will likely be on the breakdown, which will be released for the first time, and should confirm that domestic demand and consumption remain the main drivers of the recovery. German and French production numbers for January are likely to bounce back from the contraction at the end of last year and we are looking for a rebound in German production of 3.0% m/m, after the -3.0% m/m decline in December, while French production is seen up 0.9% m/m.

UK: A bigger decline that had been widely anticipated in the UK’s PMI February surveys has painted a picture of a stagnating economy with businesses facing higher operating costs and slowing consumer demand. This comes with the start of negotiations to leave the EU now just around the corner, which we expect to quickly bring some contentious issues into the limelight (and risk of Scotland’s SNP making another attempt to break from the UK). The UK calendar this week starts with the BRC retail sales report for February (Monday), which will be of interest amid concerns that consumers are tightening their belts, and the Halifax house price report, also for February (Monday). The next data of note will be production figures for January at the tail end of the week (Friday), which expected to show industrial output dipping 0.4% m/m while rising 3.0% y/y.

Japan: The second look at Q4 GDP (Wednesday) is forecast improving to a 1.5% q/q pace from the initial 1.0%. Strong Q4 capex spending supports this view. The January current account surplus (Wednesday) likely narrowed to JPY 500.0 bln from 1,112.2 bln previously. The March MoF business outlook survey (Friday) is seen improving to 9.0 from 7.5 for the large manufacturers.

Australia: Australia’s calendar features the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday). No change is expected to the current 1.50% rate setting. Economic data is headlined by January retail sales (Monday), projected to improve 0.2% m/m after the 0.1% dip in December. Housing investment (Friday) is seen dipping 0.5% in January after the 0.4% gain in December. ANZ job ads (Monday) and the Melbourne Institute inflation measures (Monday) are also due.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has January building permits (Monday), Q4 manufacturing (Wednesday) and retail card spending (Friday). The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is on March 23rd.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Tue Mar 07, 2017 6:01 am

Date : 7th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th March 2017.


Image

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, Japan underperformed and the Nikkei closed with a -0.18% loss with investors remaining cautious ahead of the Fed policy meeting and as markets price in a March rate hike. U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, FTSE 100 futures are moving higher, after European markets headed south yesterday and rising risk aversion saw Bund futures outperforming and Eurozone spreads widening. German manufacturing orders data at the start of the session are likely to continue to underpin Bund futures as the sharp rise in December is expected to be followed by a marked correction in January. The data calendar also has U.K. house price data from Halifax and detailed Q4 Eurozone GDP numbers.

US reports: The U.S. factory goods data undershot estimates thanks to a restrained 0.4% January nondurable rise for shipments and orders despite price gains, with a similarly lean 0.3% nondurable inventory rise after a big December boost. We saw only tiny tweaks in the durables data for orders, shipments, and equipment that still show a transportation-led orders gain with respectable equipment data, but with lean shipments and inventories. A boost in the Q1 GDP growth rate to 2.0% expected, from 1.9% with a $5 bln boost to factory inventories alongside a $2 bln hike for construction. More precisely, U.S. factory orders rose 1.2% in January after a 1.3% bounce in December and a 2.3% drop in November. The 1.8% jump in January durable orders was bumped up to 2.0%. Transportation orders rebounded 6.2% versus -4.3%. But excluding transportation, factory orders were unchanged from the prior 0.9% December gain. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft dipped 0.1% from 0.8% previously. Shipments rose 0.2% after the 2.5% surge in December. Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft slid 0.4% versus a prior 1.7% gain. Inventories edged up 0.2% from 0.3%. The inventory-shipment ratio was steady at 1.31.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady at 1.50%, matching widespread expectations. The statement by Governor Lowe was cautiously constructive on the outlook for growth and inflation. The outlook continues to be supported by low levels of interest rates, Lowe said. On the exchange rate, he said the depreciation since 2013 has assisted the transition in the economy following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate, he noted, would complicate that adjustment. Overall, the statement is consistent with an extended period of steady, accommodative policy lasting into 2018.

Main Macro Events Today

US Trade Balance – January trade data is out today and expected the deficit to jump 10.7% to -$49.0 bln from -$44.3 bln in December. Exports expected to be down 0.2% on the month with imports up 1.9%. The advance trade report had the goods and services deficit expanding to -$69.2 bln from -$64.4 bln in December.

Canadian IVEY PMI – IVEY PMI for February is anticipated to have a pickup in the seasonally adjusted measure to 58.0 from 57.2.

Canadian Trade – The January trade balance is expected to improve to C$1.0 bln from C$0.9 bln in December. The C$1.0 bln surplus in November ended a lengthy run of deficits. Crude oil prices were modestly higher in January, but natural gas prices dipped slightly, suggestive of a modest boost overall to energy export values. Exports are seen rising 1.0% m/m in January after the 0.8% gain. Imports are projected to increase 0.8% in January after the 1.0% rise in December. The risk around the trade report projection is elevated, as always. Canada’s economy appears to be on the mend, although the trade outlook remains subject to considerable uncertainty.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Wed Mar 08, 2017 6:06 am

Date : 8th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th March 2017.


Image

FX News Today

European Outlook: Core European bond yields remain under pressure, peripheral Eurozone markets are underperforming and equity markets are holding back as investors remain cautious going into Thursday’s ECB meeting, Friday’s U.S. jobs report ahead of the Fed decision next week. Much weaker than expected German manufacturing orders data on Tuesday have taken some pressure off Draghi to at least remove the reference to the possibility of further rate cuts from the forward guidance. QE remains in place for now and officials will remain adamant that the planned reduction in monthly purchase volumes from next month does not constitute “real tapering”, that is a gradual phasing out of asset purchases. That this will come next year is highly likely and widely expected, although with Eurozone elections and Brexit talks looming, we expect Draghi to keep his insurance policy in place for now and not move to real tapering before December, when the end of the current purchase program draws near. The calendar features Geman production and Swiss CPI data.

US reports: The U.S. trade deficit widened to a 5-year high of $48.5 bln from $44.3 bln in December and a 9-month high of $45.5 in November, with mostly upward revisions for both exports and imports of services that generally narrowed the gaps back through 2016. The deficit was $0.5 bln narrower than indicated by the “advance” trade report with upside surprises in both exports and imports, though we still peg Q1 GDP growth at 1.5% after a Q4 growth boost to 2.0% from 1.9%. The Q4 GDP growth boost should include a $2 bln downward bump for exports and a $1 bln boost for imports, alongside an already-signaled hike of $5 bln for inventories and $2 bln for construction.

Germany: German manufacturing orders were much weaker than expected, with the overall number falling -7.4% m/m in January, more than wiping out the 5.2% m/m rise in the previous month. Bundsbank data showed the three months’ trend rate slowing down to just 0.2% from 4.0% in the three months to December. The numbers contrast sharply with the robust round of confidence numbers for February and cast a shadow over the outlook, as they point to a slowdown in growth in the second quarter. More backing for the arguments of the doves at the ECB council for Thursday, who will want Draghi to confirm the easing bias and the ongoing QE schedule despite likely upward revisions to growth and inflation projections.

Canada: Canada’s Ivey PMI dipped to 55.0 in February on a seasonally adjusted basis from 57.2 in January. The employment index improved to 54.5 from 53.5, prices dropped to 61.1 from 70.1, supplier deliveries declined to 45.9 from 46.6 and inventories were 51.4 from 46.4. The Ivey PMI has been in expansionary territory since June of 2016 after the 49.4 seen in May of last year. Moreover, the six-month moving average improved to 58.0 in February from 57.5 in January and December, consistent with ongoing momentum in the economy. Also, the Ivey PMI improved to 55.1 in February on a not seasonally adjusted basis from 52.3 in January and 49.4 in December, consistent with the usual seasonal pattern and broadly supportive of our outlook for continued momentum in Canada’s economy during Q1. Canada’s trade surplus widened to C$0.807 bln in January, nearly as expected, but December was cut to a C$0.447 bln surplus in December from the C$0.9 bln initially reported. Export values grew 0.5%, driven by motor vehicles and canola oil shipments.

Japan: Japan GDP was revised slightly higher to a 1.2% pace in Q4 (q/q, saar) from the initial 1.0% pace. GDP grew at an identical 1.2% rate in Q3 after the 2.2% gain in Q2 and 1.9% clip in Q1. The revised Q4 growth rate fell short of projections. Consumption growth remained flat in Q4.

Main Macro Events Today

Canada Housing Starts – Housing Starts expected to slow to a 200k unit rate in February from 207.4k in January. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz has maintained that the October 2016 housing measures from the Ottawa will mitigate some of the risks (associated with housing) going down the road. But he cautioned that these things move slowly. Building permit values are seen falling 1.0% in January after the 6.6% tumble in December.

US ADP Employment Change – February ADP Employment report should post a solid 184k gain for the month, but below the January figure of 246k.

UK Annual Budget Release – Spring’s Budget Report and the first of 2017. Tax hikes expected to be announced.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
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