Re: LiteForex Market Analytics
Posted: Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:01 am
GBP/USD: the pound stays under pressure
Current trend
During the trading sessions in the previous week the pound was lowering against the US dollar, renewing the local minimum from November, 2. Despite of the decreasing traders’ activity due to the upcoming New Year and Christmas holydays, the pound couldn’t became corrected, being under the pressure of new concerns due to the upcoming Brexit.
In addition rather controversial macroeconomical statistics from the UK were published on Friday, 23. The third quarter GDP index has grown by 0.6% QoQ, which is better than the predicted value by 0.1%. The YoY GDP has grown by 2.2%, which is worse than predicted value by 0.1%. The Business Investments indicator has grown only by 0.4% QoQ, while the experts predicted the growth by 0.9% QoQ. The YoY volume of the investments has decreased by 2.2% YoY against -1.6% in the previous quarter. The Index of Services has grown by 1.0% in October against +0.8% in September, while analysts were expecting the growth by 0.9% QoQ. The Current Account data are better than expected also. The third quarter deficit is 25.490 billion pounds, increased from the level of 22,080 billion, while the analysts expected the deficit to grow to the level of 27,450 billion pounds.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 1.2312 (minimum on December, 20), 1.2354, 1.2385 (minimum on November, 28), 1.2419, 1.2468, 1.2512 (maximum on November, 22), 1.2548, 1.2584 (the level of December, 14) and 1.2619.
Support levels: 1.2272 (testing during the morning session on December, 26), 1.2228 (current minimum from December, 23), 1.2171 and 1.2132 (the October, 28 level).
On the daily chart the Bollinger Bands indicator is lowering. The price range is slightly widening, giving to the “bears” the way to new local minima. However the indicator shows the possibility of the appearance of the correctional growth and the return of the price to the middle line area.
The MACD is lowering, keeping a sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s better to keep current shorts positions, but not to open new “bearish” ones.
The Stochastic is in the oversold area, is trying to reverse upwards, which can show the potential formation of the correctional growth in short or very short terms.
Trading scenario
Open long positions after the breakout of the level of 1.2312, if the technical indicators don’t contradict the “bullish” trend. Take profit is at 1.2419 or 1.2468. Stop loss is at 1.2210 and 1.2200. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
In case of the breakout of the level of 1.2228 downwards, it’s better to open short positions with the targets at 1.2132 and 1.2100. Stop loss is at 1.2280. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
Current trend
During the trading sessions in the previous week the pound was lowering against the US dollar, renewing the local minimum from November, 2. Despite of the decreasing traders’ activity due to the upcoming New Year and Christmas holydays, the pound couldn’t became corrected, being under the pressure of new concerns due to the upcoming Brexit.
In addition rather controversial macroeconomical statistics from the UK were published on Friday, 23. The third quarter GDP index has grown by 0.6% QoQ, which is better than the predicted value by 0.1%. The YoY GDP has grown by 2.2%, which is worse than predicted value by 0.1%. The Business Investments indicator has grown only by 0.4% QoQ, while the experts predicted the growth by 0.9% QoQ. The YoY volume of the investments has decreased by 2.2% YoY against -1.6% in the previous quarter. The Index of Services has grown by 1.0% in October against +0.8% in September, while analysts were expecting the growth by 0.9% QoQ. The Current Account data are better than expected also. The third quarter deficit is 25.490 billion pounds, increased from the level of 22,080 billion, while the analysts expected the deficit to grow to the level of 27,450 billion pounds.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 1.2312 (minimum on December, 20), 1.2354, 1.2385 (minimum on November, 28), 1.2419, 1.2468, 1.2512 (maximum on November, 22), 1.2548, 1.2584 (the level of December, 14) and 1.2619.
Support levels: 1.2272 (testing during the morning session on December, 26), 1.2228 (current minimum from December, 23), 1.2171 and 1.2132 (the October, 28 level).
On the daily chart the Bollinger Bands indicator is lowering. The price range is slightly widening, giving to the “bears” the way to new local minima. However the indicator shows the possibility of the appearance of the correctional growth and the return of the price to the middle line area.
The MACD is lowering, keeping a sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s better to keep current shorts positions, but not to open new “bearish” ones.
The Stochastic is in the oversold area, is trying to reverse upwards, which can show the potential formation of the correctional growth in short or very short terms.
Trading scenario
Open long positions after the breakout of the level of 1.2312, if the technical indicators don’t contradict the “bullish” trend. Take profit is at 1.2419 or 1.2468. Stop loss is at 1.2210 and 1.2200. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
In case of the breakout of the level of 1.2228 downwards, it’s better to open short positions with the targets at 1.2132 and 1.2100. Stop loss is at 1.2280. Implementation period: 2-3 days.