LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Gold has been falling against the USD during the last five weeks. During the trading session on Friday the pair was at the level of 1176.70 — close to the year minimum reached in March. The market is under pressure due to USD growing in anticipation of the possible FRS interest rate increase on December, 14. The stable growth of the American stock market which became more attractive to the investors, also pressures the gold.

Key levels

On the daily chart the pair is lowering towards the lower border of the Bollinger Bands. The MACD histogram is in negative zone, its volumes are the same on the level of -23.640. Stochastic is in neutral zone, lines are pointed downwards, if it crosses the border of the oversold area, the sell signal will appear.
Support levels: 1147.30, 1130.75.
Resistance levels: 1176.30, 1187.70, 1229.70.

Trading tips

It’s recommended to open short positions from the current level 1155.00 with the target at 1147.00 and stop loss at 1160.00.
It’s recommended to open long positions from the level of 1177.00 with the target at 1187.00 and stop loss at 1172.00.

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: the market remains optimistic

Current trend

The trading week started with a strong oil prices growth, the Brent listings reached the maximum from the July, 2015, rising above the level of 57.00. The OPEC and 11 non-OPEC countries have come to the agreement of the oil producing limitation by 558K barrels per day, and this supported the price greatly. The oil Minister of Saudi Arabia declared the possibility of further limitations unilaterally. This brought some optimism on the market, and the middle term targets increased. Today the level of 65 dollar per barrel is the strong support level.

The market is favorable for the “bulls” now. If all the participants follow the agreement fully, the world extracted oil resources will reduce by 46%, which will make the price to grow. On the other hand, the countries have violated such rules many times. In addition, the USA can prevent the oil prices from growing, as they can increase the production of the shale oil, reopening the wells, declared as unprofitable. So the traders are waiting for the realization of the agreement, remains optimistic.

Support and resistance

The price was corrected to the level of 55.24 and now is trying to grow. In case of the breakup at 56.46 the nearest targets will be at 57.10 (December maximum), 58.00 and 58.80. The indicators show the possibility of the growth, too. The price is moving within the upper border of the Bollinger Bands, which is pointed upwards and shows the upward trend, too. The Stochastic is reversing upward, the MACD histogram is growing in the positive area. The continuing of the downward correction to the level of 53.50 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%) and 51.50 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%) is less possible, as the price should consolidate below the 54.80 to develop it.

Support levels: 54.80, 53.50, 51.50.
Resistance levels: 56.45, 57.10, 58.00, 58.80, 60.00.

Trading scenario

Open long positions when the price is set above 56.45 with the target at 57.10, 58.00 and 58.80. Stop loss is at 55.90. Open short positions below 54.80 with the target at 53.50, 51.50 and stop loss at 55.40.

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: technical analysis

NZD/USD, D1
On the daily chart the tool is steadily growing along the upper border of the indicator "Bollinger Bands". Indicator is pointing up, while the price range continues to grow, which is the basis for the continuation of the current trend. The MACD histogram is getting closer to zero line from below, its volumes are growing, maintaining a buy signal. Stochastic is going to enter the overbought zone.

NZD/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. Indicator is pointing up, while the price range has increased, pointing to the preservation of the current trend. Histogram MACD is in the positive zone, its volumes continue to grow, while maintaining a strong buy signal. Volume line of Stochastic is pointing up, while the signal line is oriented downwards.

Key levels
Support levels: 0.7203, 0.7194, 0.7182, 0.7165, 0.7153.
Resistance levels: 0.7222, 0.7230, 0.7238, 0.7246.

Trading tips
Long positions may be opened at the current price with the targets at 0.7238, 0.7250 and stop loss at 0.7200. Implementation period 1 day.
Short positions can be placed at the level of 0.7205 with the targets at 0.7180, 0.7170 and stop loss at 0.7195. Implementation period 1 day.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The pair is lowering. It renewed the historical minimum due to the FRS decision of the key interest rate rise to 0.5-0.75%. The rise was expected, and furthermore, the commitment to the tightening of the US monetary policy was announced.
“A modest increase in the federal funds rate is appropriate in light of the solid progress we have seen toward our goals of maximum employment and 2% inflation”, — is written on the official site of the FRS. Janet Yellen said that the FRS will pursue its policy according to Trump’s economical plan for lowering the taxes and increasing of spending on infrastructure. The new interest rate rise in the next year was also announced.

As today there are no significant releases in Eurozone, the USA Retail Sales and Initial Jobless claims indicators are worth traders’ attention.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart the pair broke the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator, showing a strong sell signal. The MACD is on negative zone, its volumes are rising. The signal line crosses the histogram body downwards, giving sell signal. The Stochastic crosses the border between neutral area and oversold area downwards, giving a signal to open shorts positions.

Support levels: 1.0400.
Resistance levels: 1.0500, 1.0550, 1.0600, 1.0650, 1.0710, 1.0735, 1.0800, 1.0830, 1.0870.

Trading scenario

Open short positions from the current price with the target at 1.0300. Stop loss is at 1.0450.
Open long positions from the level of 1.0550 with the target at 1.0600. Stop loss is at 1.0520.
Implementation period: 1-3 days.

[LiteForexTeam]

XAG/USD: silver is falling

Current trend

Yesterday the price of silver significantly declined amid a continuous strengthening in the US Dollar that was supported by strong data from the US.

The Consumer Price Index excluding Food and Energy in November rose by 2.1% that matched the figure from the previous month but came out a 0.1% worse than forecasts of economists. On a month-to-month basis, the index added 0.2% that matched the expectations. Additionally, the number of Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 9 December fell from 258 thousands to 254 thousands that exceeded the expectations by 1 thousand claims. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index in December grew from 1.5 to 9.0 points, more than twice beating the forecasts. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose from 7.6 to 21.5 points, against the expectations of a growth to only 9.0 points.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart turned down while the price range is widening. The price, however, is trading underneath its lower border. MACD is falling having formed a sell signal. Stochastic continues falling having reached the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

Support levels: 15.87 (local low), 15.65, 15.51 (11 April low).
Resistance levels: 16.00 (local high), 16.15 (25 November low), 16.30, 16.42 (18 November low), 16.62, 16.73 (local high), 16.87, 17.00, 17.22 (16 November high).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 16.15 with targets at 16.62, 16.73, 17.00 and stop-loss at 15.80. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 15.87 with targets at 15.51, 15.25, 15.00 and stop-loss at 16.15. Validity – 2-3 days.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

During the last week trading sessions the pair has lost about 110 points due to the strengthening of the USD. As expected, the regulator has increased the key interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75%, adding than the next rate rise can happen in the first half of the next year. On Thursday, December, 15, the Bank of England has decided to keep the interest rate on the same level of 0.25%. The Head of the regulator, Mark Carney has commented the decision carefully and avoided any specificity. However, he said that the inflation stays within expected range, and there are no conditions to its growth.

Concerning the “hawk” rhetoric of the USA FRS and tough negotiations between UK and the EU upon the Brexit, the pair will decrease in the long term.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart the pair is trading in the bottom area of the Bollinger Bands. The indicator is pointed downwards, as the price range is wide, so the current trend will continue. The MACD is in negative zone and doesn’t give a clear signal. The Stochastic is ready to leave the overbought area, forming a strong sell signal.
According to the readings, it’s better to open short positions.

Support levels: 1.2450, 1.2401, 1.2361, 1.2184.
Resistance levels: 1.2516, 1.2567, 1.2605, 1.2648, 1.2698, 1.2723.

Trading scenario

Open short positions on the current level with the target at 1.2400. Stop loss is at 1.2520. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Open long positions from the level of 1.2520 with the target at 1.2570. Stop loss is at 1.2500. Implementation period: 1-3 days.

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend
The Canadian dollar continues to move in the upward channel since March 2016. Since last week, the pair once again start the upward movement within the channel, caused by the strengthening US dollar. Now the pair is in the middle of the range.
Further movement of the pair may be affected by data on wholesale sales from Canada at 15:30 (GMT+2) today, retail sales data from the US, and particularly the report of the American Petroleum Institute at 23:30 (GMT+2). As you know, the Canadian dollar has a strong correlation with the oil price. For the same reason it is important to pay attention to the Wednesday release, 17:30 (GMT+2) of oil stats from the US.

Support and resistance levels
Support levels: 1.3262, 1.3315, 1.3376, 1.2988, and, of course, the lower boundary of the channel at 1.3130.
Resistance levels: 1.3521, 13579, 1.3800 (the upper border of the channel), 1.3844.

Trading tips
Long positions may be opened at the market price, targets – 1.3521 and 1.3579, stop loss –1.3340.
The scenario with a return to the bottom border of the channel is still relevant. In this case, we sell from the level 1.3376 with target at 1.3130 and stop loss at 1.3450.

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday, the Australian currency continued its decline against the US dollar after the release of Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes on interest rates and monetary policy. However, during the American session, the pair gained back about forty points from the 90 it had lost. The releases of the leading economic indicators index in Australia and the index of activity in all sectors of Japan did not affected the situation significantly.

Today, at 14:00 and 16:00 (GMT+2) we expect the stats on real estate market and mortgage lending in the US. Also important data will be stats on stocks of petroleum products in the US (17:30 GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.7837 (one-year maximum), 0.7776 (month and week high), 0.7660, 0.7600, 0.7545, 0.7489, 0.7420, 0.7309.
Support levels: 0.7143, 0.7021, 0.6828.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the market price with the targets of 0.7143, 0.7021 and stop loss at around 0.7310.
If the price consolidates above 0.7309 level, then the long positions will become relevant. Targets for the “bulls” will be 0.7420, 0.7489 and stop loss at around 0.7250.

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: pause before growth resumes

Current trend

The American Dollar continues consolidating against the Yen after a significant growth in November and the beginning of December. The Dollar fell due to profit fixation and the pair continues moving within the range of 80 points amid the lack of important fundamental news from the US or Japan. However, the Yen was slightly supported by yesterday’s decision on interest rates. The Bank of Japan left the rate unchanged, and in commentaries expressed some optimism noting a gradual economic recovery.

Today extra attention needs to be paid to macroeconomic statistics from the US that could determine further pair’s dynamics. Data on the GDP, labour market and Durable Goods Orders is due.

Support and resistance

In the short-term, the price might fall to the lower border of the ascending channel at the level of 117.15 from where its growth will resume.
Technical indicators suggest a growth continuation. Bollinger bands are directed up while the upper line is at the level of 119.00, indicating the next possible target. MACD histogram is about to resume its growth in the positive zone.
Support levels: 117.15, 116.50, 115.50, 114.80, 114.00, 113.15, 112.30.
Resistance levels: 118.00, 118.25, 118.65, 119.00, 119.35, 120.05.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from current levels and from the level of 117.15 with targets at 119.00, 120.05 and stop-loss at 116.80.

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: pair shows mixed trade

Current trend

Yesterday the pair showed choppy trade and closed near its opening level amid the publication of a large number of macroeconomic statistics.
In the third quarter of the year, the GDP in New Zealand grew by 1.1% q/q that was a 0.2% better than forecasts of economists. On a year-to-year basis, however, the index came out worse than forecasts having increased by only 3.5%, against expectations of 3.7%.

The Annualized GDP in the US in the third quarter showed 3.5% growth that exceeded expectations of economists who anticipated only a 3.3% increase. Additionally, Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation rose by 0.5%, against a forecasted 0.2%.

Data on Personal Income and Spending, in its turn, disappointed. In November, personal income showed no change against the previous month while economists predicted an increase of 0.3%. Personal spending rose by 0.2% that was a 0.1% worse than expectations.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is widening. The price, however, only now returns inside the range. MACD is turning up but keeping its previous sell signal. Stochastic is trying to turn up in the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

Support levels: 0.6900 (local low), 0.6882 (20 December low), 0.6847 (3 June low), 0.6806.
Resistance levels: 0.6930 (16 December low), 0.6947 (21 December high), 0.6971, 0.7000 (psychologically important level), 0.7034, 0.7068 (5 December low), 0.7085, 0.7101.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.6930 with targets at 0.7000, 0.7034, 0.7068 and stop-loss at 0.6900. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.6900 with the target at 0.6806 and stop-loss at 0.6930. Validity – 2-3 days.