LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

WTI Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

During today's trading session, WTI Crude Oil price is under pressure, quotes went down to 52.70. The catalysts for the current market situation are expecting oil reserves growth in USA, and also global supply redistribution — despite all attempts by OPEC countries and some other market participants outside the cartel to decrease oil extraction.

China's customs report data showed that demand for carbohydrates is still high in this country. On February, crude oil import set a new record. Daily demand by Chinese consumers is 8.286 million barrels, which is by 3.5% higher than in the last year.

However, this data didn't cause further growth, as American Petroleum Institute report was published yesterday at the end of the day. From this report it is clearly seen that last week, the oil reserves grew by 11.6 million barrels, which is five times higher than expected.

Energy Information Administration's weekly US crude oil reserves data will be released today. According to the forecasts, the reserves will grow by 1.660 million barrels. Judging by Tuesday's data, the indicator can exceed the expectations significantly. In this case, USCrude price is going to decrease.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart of the instrument, we can see strong resistance level of 52.70. The MACD histogram is near zero line and its volume is decreasing, Stochastic is pointing downwards, which gives a buy signal.

Resistance levels: 54.50, 55.70, 57.50.
Support levels: 52.70, 51.30, 50.00.

Trading tips

Short positions could be opened at current level with take-profits at 51.30 and Stop Loss order at 53.20.
Buy positions may be opened after price consolidates above 54.50 with targets at 55.70 and stop-loss at 54.00.
Implementation time: 1-2 days.

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: technical analysis

NZD/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is trading below the lower line of Bollinger Bands and is about to form a sixth close outside of the range. The price remains below its moving averages that are turning down. The RSI keeps falling having entered the oversold zone. The Composite is trying to turn up as it approached its critical levels.

NZD/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is falling along the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is trying to turn up in the oversold zone having formed a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

Key levels

Support levels: 0.6860 (December 2016 lows), 0.6815 (September 2007 lows), 0.6750 (February 2016 highs).
Resistance levels: 0.6949 (July 2016 lows), 0.6970 (November 2016 lows), 0.7042 (October 2016 lows).

Trading tips

The price is testing its strong support level in the region of 0.6860. Its breakdown would allow the fall to continue, however, there is a high chance of an upward rebound.

Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.6860 with targets at 0.6949, 0.6970, 0.7042 and stop-loss at 0.6840. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.6840 with targets at 0.6815, 0.6750 and stop-loss at 0.6860. Validity – 3-5 days.

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday during the trading session the pair continued to grow and reached the maximum of 2017 year, despite the slight weakening of the USD against some of the main currencies such as GBP and EUR due to the weak USA employment market data publication. The Initial Jobless Claims value was higher than expected: 243K against 235K. Yesterday the oil prices were stable, so the CAD price was stable too.
There are a lot of key releases today, which can influence the USD/CAD pair. The Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment data are to be published in the USA, and the Canada Unemployment Rate is expected too.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the pair is growing along the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator, the price range is widen, which reflects the development of the upward trend in the middle term.

The MACD gives a signal to open long positions, the signal line has crossed the zero line downwards, and the histogram’s volumes are slightly growing.
Support levels: 1.3485, 1.3430, 1.3370, 1.3320, 1.3245, 1.3185, 1.3095, 1.3000, 1.2915.
Resistance levels: 1.3540, 1.3600.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current level with the target at 1.3540, 1.3600 and stop loss at 1.3460.
Open short positions at the level of 1.3430 with the target at 1.3370 and stop loss at 1.3460.
Implementation period: 1-2 days.

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: general review

Current trend

Gold quotes are growing after lingering downward trend caused by strengthening of US dollar. On Friday, US dollar was under pressure of weak data on average earnings in USA. According to the data published, the indicator grew by 0.2%, though analytics expected it to grow by 0.3%. Despite that new Nonfarm Payrolls data appeared to be better than forecasted, this provided no support for US currency. Positive labor market data was already taken into account, as preliminary data from ADP had shown huge growth in employment. Investors focused their attention on weak earnings growth and started locking in the profits for dollar positions. As a result, gold rate grew by 0.33%. Gold quotes grew by 0.20% more within today's trading session.

Support and resistance

Today, gold is testing 1211.06, but can't consolidate above it yet. On the H4 chart, Bollinger Bands converge, predicting continuation of current upward trend. MACD histogram is in negative zone, its volume is decreasing, signalling that there still is growth potential.
Support levels: 1203.81, 1198.45, 1194.83.
Resistance levels: 1211.06, 1216.79, 1220.67.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above 1211.06 with Take Profit orders at 1216.79 and stop-loss at 1209.06.
Sell positions may be opened below 1203.81 with Take Profit orders at 1198.45 and stop-loss at 1205.80.

[LiteForexTeam]

CAC: technical analysis

CAC, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is falling having formed a Bearish divergence with the price. The Composite is about to test its longer MA, showing similar dynamics.

CAC, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is correcting down to the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed up. The RSI is falling having broken down its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

Key levels

Support levels: 4935.5 (local lows), 4922.3 (January highs), 4861.8 (December 2016 highs).
Resistance levels: 5018.8 (local highs), 5089.9 (June 2015 highs), 5202.1 (August 2015 highs).

Trading tips

The price is testing its strong resistance of the end of 2015. There is a chance of a downward correction.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 4935.5, 4922.3, 4861.8 and stop-loss at 5002.9. Validity – 2-3 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 5018.8 with the target at 5089.9 and stop-loss at 5004.8. Validity – 2-3 days.

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: general review

Current trend

Last week, AUD was decreasing due to the positive US economy data and RBA leaving the interest rate unchanged at the its previous minimum level. Yesterday, after FOMC announced the decision to raise the interest rate to 1%, US dollar decreased. J. Yellen, Head of FOMC, confirmed that there should be more interest rate hikes this year, and her evaluation of US economy sounded positive. Nevertheless, US dollar kept falling. AUD/USD grew for more than 150 points rapidly, breaking through two strong resistance levels of 0.7600 and 0.7660, and almost reaching its 4-month maximum. Night data on labor market and inflation in Australia appeared worse than expected, which weakened the pair a bit.
Today, attention should be paid to data on new houses due on 14:30, and PMI index (the outlook is negative).

Support and resistance

Today, the pair will most probably move upwards to the upper border of the D1 chart channel within 0.7800-0.7830.
Support levels: 0.7660, 0.7600, 0.7540, 0.7490, 0.7420.
Resistance levels: 0.7740, 0.7780, 0.7800, 0.7830.

Trading tips

Buy positions with targets at 0.7740, 0.7780 and stop-loss at 0.7650 may be opened at market price.
The alternative scenario is opening short positions at the level of 0.7600 with targets at 0.7540 and stop-loss at 0.7650.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: technical analysis

XAU/USD, D1

On the daily chart the pair was corrected to the middle lint of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The price will move within the sideway channel between upper and lower border of the indicator.

The MACD histogram in near the zero line, its volumes are minimal, the signal line is ready to cross the zero line downwards and give a sell signal.
«The Stochastic» is in the neutral zone, keeping a buy signal; the lines of the indicator are pointed upward.

XAU/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart the pair is growing along the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The price tested the resistance level of 1231.30, and the growth slowed down. The price range, formed by the borders of the indicator, is still expanded, so the development of the upward trend is possible.
The MACD histogram is in the positive zone; its volumes are slightly growing. The signal line is crossing the zero line and the histogram’s body, giving a signal to open long positions.
«The Stochastic» is in the neutral zone, keeping a weak sell signal, the lines are pointed downward.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1215.50, 1195.00, 1179.55, 1149.73, 1122.46.
Resistance levels: 1231.30, 1258.78.

Trading scenario

Open long positions from the level of 1234.00 with the target at 1250.00. Stop loss is at 1226.00. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Open short positions at the level of 1215.00 with the target at 1195.00 and stop loss at 1223.00. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The last week was positive for the EUR/USD pair due to the “dovish” FRS mood of the interest rate rise and the positive for the EUR Netherlands Elections result. The growth o the pair slowed in the end of the week due to the traders’ fixing the profit, which presses the price to the level of 1.0700. The pair managed to close above this level, which entrusted the “bulls”. In the beginning of the week the pair is growing and tested the level of 1.0780.
Due to the absence of the significant news from the Eurozone and the USA, the pair will move within 1.0800-1.0600 in the short term and middle term period.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the pair is growing along the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The MACD histogram is near the zero line, its volumes are growing, the signal line crosses the zero line upwards, giving a signal to open long positions.
Support levels: 1.0700, 1.0640, 1.0600.
Resistance levels: 1.0780, 1.0800, 1.0825.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current price with the target at 1.0800 and stop loss at 1.0720.
Short positions open from the level of 1.0690 with the target at 1.0640 and stop loss at 1.0720.
Implementation period: 1-3 days.

[LiteForexTeam]

XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart the pair is traded within the middle line and the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator, the growth of price slowed. The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are minimal, the signal line crosses the zero line downwards, giving a signal to open short positions. The Stochastic is growing towards the border of the neutral zone whit the overbought one, the signal line is pointed upwards, in case of crossing of the border the sell signal will be received.

XAG/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart the pair is traded sideways within the narrow channel of the Bollinger Bands indicator borders. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, moving sideways and keeping its volumes at the level of 0.060. The Stochastic is in the neutral zone, giving no clear signal.

Key levels

Support levels: 16.80, 16.20, 15.75, 15.50.
Resistance levels: 17.50, 18.00, 18.50.

Trading scenario

Open short positions at the current price with the target at 16.80. Stop loss is at 17.70. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
Open long positions at the level of 17.70 with the target at 18.50 and stop loss at 17.30. Implementation period: 1-3 days.

[LiteForexTeam]

FDAX: Fibonacci analysis

Growth recovery to 12008.0 is expected

On the 4-hour chart the price broke down through the level of 11904.5 (correction by 38.2%) but stopped on the 50% line of the ascending fan. This indicates the possibility of a turn to 12008.0 (correction by 23.6%, middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 12136.0 (the area of March maximums). The possibility of growth is confirmed by Stochastic that is about to leave the oversold zone and to form a buying signal, and by Fibonacci summation series, according to which the fall has been going on for five days. To continue the fall, the price needs to consolidate below 50.0% fan line. In this case the targets of the "bears" will be 11820.0 (correction by 50.0%) and 11737.0 (correction by 61.8%).

The price has been growing on D1 chart for over 90 days, and according Fibonacci summation series may continue to do so. Currently the price has corrected from March maximums to the lower line of Bollinger Bands (12820.0) and may regain growth to 12973.5. In case the price consolidates below it, it may continue decreasing to the levels of 11636.5 (23.6% correction for long-term trend; 76,4% correction for middle-term trend) and 11136.5 (correction 38.2%).

Trading tips

Long positions may be open if the price consolidates over 11904.5 with targets at 12008.0 and 12136.0. Stop-loss order should be placed at 11873.0.

Alternative scenario

Alternatively, if the price consolidates below 50.0% fan line, selling positions may be opened at the level of 11863.0 with targets at 11820.0, 11365.0 and stop-loss at 11890.0.