LiteForex Market Analytics

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Wed Feb 08, 2017 10:58 am

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The AUD is trading in the upward trend against the USD. The pair has grown by more than 500 points and reached the key resistance level of 0.7700 in a month. The pair is moving due to the significant lowering of the USD against the negative USD fundamental background. During the last month the poor GDP, employment and key indices data were published. The Australia data made a positive impact on the pair.

In the beginning of the week there was a downward correction to the lower border of the upward trend at 0.7610, but now it is consolidating above this level. Today the volatility lowered and the AUD is trading within the narrow sideway channel 0.7610-0.7645. In the short term the pair will either grow to the local maxima or will form a reversal figure. This week the USA employment data and the USA building sector data are worth attention.

Support and resistance

Technical analysis and the USA and Australia fundamental background show the potential of movement to the levels of 0.7700, 0.7780, 0.7820. The alternative is a consolidation of the pair in the sideway trend 0.7700-0.7610 with the further reversal. After the last FRS meeting its members has spoken a lot about the interest rate rising in March, which can affect the investors’ moods. The lowering of the demand on the USD pressures the pair and can led it to the deeper correction. The technical indicators are giving a strong sell signal, the MACD keeps high volumes of the long positions, the upper border of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart is set near the local maximum at the level of 0.7820.
Support levels: 0.7610, 0.7545, 0.7510, 0.7480, 0.7430, 0.7400, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7160.
Resistance levels: 0.7645, 0.7700, 0.7780, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current level with the target at 0.7820 and short stop loss is at 0.7580, keeping in mind the growth from the lower border of the upward channel.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Thu Feb 09, 2017 6:54 am

EUR/USD: общий обзор

Текущая динамика

Пара EUR/USD в ходе вчерашних торгов предприняла попытку роста, однако закрепиться выше уровня 1.0713 ей не удалось, и курс скорректировался вниз. Отсутствие новостного фона, а также неопределенность в отношении экономической политики нового президента США определяют текущий боковой характер движения EUR/USD. Из макроэкономических событий, способных оказать влияние на курс EUR/USD сегодня, можно выделить статистику по первичным заявкам на пособия по безработице в США (15:30 GMT+2), а также выступление представителя ФРС США Чарльза Эванса. Если слова Эванса будут содержать намёки на возможное повышение процентной ставки на мартовском заседании, то в краткосрочной перспективе пара EUR/USD может попасть под давление.

Уровни поддержки и сопротивления

На 4-часовом графике гистограмма MACD расположена в отрицательной зоне, объёмы её постепенно сокращаются, однако чёткого сигнала не дают. Полосы Боллинджера демонстрируют небольшое схождение, указывая на относительное спокойствие на рынке.
Уровни поддержки: 1.0699, 1.0622, 1.0588.
Уровни сопротивления: 1.0713, 1.0754, 1.0797.

Торговые сценарии

Позиции на покупку открываем выше уровня 1.0713 с целями в районе 1.0754, 1.0797 и стоп-лоссом на уровне 1.0690.
Позиции на продажу можно выставлять ниже уровня 1.0669 с целями 1.0622, 1.0588 и стоп-лоссом на уровне 1.0695.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:28 am

GBP/USD: the pair is in a state of equilibrium

Current trend

On Thursday, the pair lost about a hundred points, reaching the middle line of Bollinger bands at 1.2500. Strengthening of the dollar was due to the Trump’s intention to present his proposals for tax reform in the near future. During the election campaign, he has already promised to reduce the tax burden on the American middle class and businesses as well as to reduce the rate of income tax and change the scale of progressive taxation. Now the market is waiting for the promised performance.

At the same time, yesterday the Head of the Bank of England Mark Carney didn’t mentioned monetary policy in his speech and could not provide support for the pound. Today's strong data on industrial production in the UK in December (+2.1% MoM and +4.0% YoY) also couldn’t help the British currency. Despite the fact that the British economy copes well with the consequences of Brexit, the pound has been falling since mid-January.

Support and resistance
From a technical point of view, the level of 1.2500 (middle line of Bollinger bands) is still the key level. Technical indicators do not give a clear picture: Stochastic turns up from the oversold zone, MACD histogram has low volumes, and the Bollinger Bands are directed horizontally. Under these conditions, important level for the "bulls" would be 1.2530 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%), breakout of which would allow the price to go up to the upper boundary of the descending channel (1.2600), and further, to 1.2690. After consolidation below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, the pair may continue to decrease to the levels of 1.2526 (38.2% correction) and 1.2345 (50.0% correction).
Support levels: 1.2426, 1.2345 and 1.2265.
Resistance levels: 1.2530, 1.2600 and 1.2690.

Trading tips
In this situation, long positions can be opened above the level of 1.2530 with the targets at 1.2600 and 1.2690 and stop loss at 1.2500. At the level of 1.2475 short positions would become relevant with the targets at 1.2426 and 1.2345 and stop loss at 1.2505.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Mon Feb 13, 2017 3:27 am

XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart the pair is growing along the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator, the trend is upward. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are slightly growing, the signal line crosses the histogram’s body upwards, giving a signal to open long positions. The Stochastic is moving alongside the border between the neutral and the overbought zone, giving no clear signal.

XAG/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart the pair is trying to rebound from the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The price range is widening, keeping the possibility of the further price growth. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, keeping a weak buy signal. The Stochastic is in the neutral zone on the border with the overbought zone. In case of an upward breakout the sell signal will be received.

Key levels

Support levels: 17.90, 17.55, 16.75, 16.25, 15.50.
Resistance levels: 18.57, 19.10, 20.00.

Trading scenario

According to the technical indicators, it’s better to open long positions at the current price with the target at 18.50. Stop loss is at 17.60. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
Open short positions at the level of 17.50 with the target at 16.80 and stop loss at 17.90. Implementation period: 1-3 days.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:31 am

NZD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

During the last week the pair was lowering and lost about a half of the 2 months growth (more than 200 points). The decrease is a result of many factors. The first is the RBNZ decision to keep the interest rate on the same level of 1.75%, which is minimal for last 5 years. The lowering of the rate affects the national currency negatively. The second are the positive USD data: Initial Jobless Claims, which is better than expected, the Import Price Index (much better than the previous value and the growth of the Oil Rig Count, which reflects the increase in oil production, oil rice lowering and the growth of the USD.

Yesterday and today the price continues to test the strong and important level 0.7170, the cluster of 38% and 50% Fibonacci from the whole range of the price movement during the last 3 years and the last falling wave. The reaction to this level will determine the price dynamic in the nearest perspective.
Today the important issues are the USA Producer Price Index (expected to be lower than the previous value, which is negative) and Fed's Yellen Speech, which can affect the market greatly.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.7485, 07390, 0.7340, 0.7250.
Support levels: 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7170.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current price with the target at 0.7250, 0.7340, stop loss is at 0.7130.
Alternative scenario: in case of a downward breakout at 0.7170 open short positions with the target at 0.7100, 0.7050, stop loss is at 0.7220.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Wed Feb 15, 2017 6:31 am

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Euro’s fall against the US Dollar that was happening since last week got a new impulse after the European Commission released its growth forecast on Monday. Despite being quite positive about the eurozone perspectives, the report highlighted a number of problems and uncertainties, such as GDP growth below expectations, upcoming negotiations with the UK about their departure from the EU, lack of clarity about intentions of the new Trump’s administration, as well as questions about the labour market and inflation.

Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Trade Balance from the eurozone and Consumer Price Index from the US, and also to Fed Chair Janet Yellen speech that could substantially support the Dollar.

However, with generally positive outlook for the eurozone, the recent decline in the Euro could be a search by large players for a good entry to purchase the pair.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.0500, 1.0340, 1.0210.
Resistance levels: 1.0650, 1.0707, 1.0820, 1.0930.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 1.0707, 1.0820 and stop-loss at 1.0520.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0707 with the target at 1.0500 and stop-loss at 1.0760.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Thu Feb 16, 2017 5:25 am

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Yesterday, gold was strengthened after the speech by Janet Yellen. In her speech, the head of the American regulator stressed that the next tightening of monetary policy depends directly on the statistics of labor market and real estate, as well as on the growth rate of inflation in the United States. At the same time Yellen highlighted the opinion of most members of the committee that delay of the interest rates raise would be unwise.

In addition, precious metals received support from the news of resignation of Michael Flynn. The adviser of US President for National Security admitted that he discussed the sanctions against Moscow with Russian ambassador before Trump entered the office. This news may serve as growth driver for XAU/USD in the medium term, as now, market participants are afraid of failure of Trump's plans to reduce the tax burden and to increase budget expenditures.
Today traders will pay attention to the publication of macroeconomic statistics on the US real estate, as well as on the US labor market. If both indicators will be positive for the US economy, the Fed will receive a strong signal to raise interest rates, which would support the dollar.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trying to gain a foothold above the level of 1236.00. The indicator "Bollinger Bands" is directed upwards, and the price range continues to expand, reflecting the continuation of the current trend. Histogram of MACD is in the positive zone, giving a buy signal. Stochastic is approaching the overbought area.

Support levels: 1226.07, 1217.71, 1206.37, 1195.62.
Resistance levels: 1236.66, 1247.57, 1258.32.

Trading tips
Long positions should be opened at the current price with the targets at 1240.70, 1244.30 and stop loss at the level of 1230.00. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Short positions can be set at the level of 1230.50 with take profit at 1219.00 and stop loss at 1237.80. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Fri Feb 17, 2017 7:30 am

NZD/USD: technical analysis

NZD/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains just above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are horizontal. The RSI turned down having failed its longer MA. The Composite, however, is growing.
NZD/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading just below the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130 but above the SMA200 that turned horizontally. The RSI is about to test its longer MA. The Composite is falling having broken down its longer MA.

Key levels
Support levels: 0.7174 (local lows), 0.7054 (April 2016 high), 0.6983 (November 2016 lows).
Resistance levels: 0.7254 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), 0.7315 (July 2016 highs), 0.7332 (local highs).

Trading tips
The price seems to have formed a new descending channel having bounced off its upper border. The fall could continue.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.7220 with targets at 0.7174, 0.7054 and stop-loss at 0.7254. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7254 with targets at 0.7315, 0.7332 and stop-loss at 0.7235. Validity – 3-5 days.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Mon Feb 20, 2017 8:13 am

EUR/TRY: technical analysis

EUR/TRY, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is falling along the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that start turning sideways. The RSI is testing its most recent support, and thus may be forming a “double bottom” reverse formation. The Composite begins diverging with the price.

EUR/TRY, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is correcting up from the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that turned down. The RSI is growing having broken out its longer MA. The Composite is about to test its longer MA as well.

Key levels


Support levels: 3.8330 (local lows), 3.8081 (December 2016 highs), 3.7913 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
Resistance levels: 3.9205 (local highs), 3.9547 (local highs), 4.0110 (local highs).

Trading tips


There is a chance of an upward reverse in the price.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 3.9205 with targets at 3.9547, 4.0110 and stop-loss at 3.9015. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 3.8330 with targets at 3.8081, 3.7913 and stop-loss at 3.8454. Validity – 3-5 days.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:54 am

NZD/USD: the pair returns to the descending channel

Current trend
After the collision with the strong resistance level, the pair reversed and consolidated within the downtrend. The main catalyst for the trend change were recent statements of the Head of US Federal Reserve regarding a possible rise of interest rates in the near future.
This week's economic calendar doesn’t contain major releases, so the pair will be affected by the trading sentiment. To date, trading sentiment is in favor of the US dollar.
An alternative scenario in the short term would be the formation of sideways consolidation due to the lack of economic catalysts and decreasing demand.

Support and resistance
Technical indicators confirm the forecast of the fall: MACD shows a decrease in the volumes of short positions.
Support levels: 0.7105, 0.7080, 0.7035, 0.7005, 0.6970, 0.6915, 0.6885, 0.6860.
Resistance levels: 0.7175, 0.7200, 0.7310, 0.7370, 0.7400, 0.7445.

Trading tips
Building up short positions within the trend, entry point would be the current level, targets – 0.7035, 0.6860, stop-loss – 0.7180.

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