LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: the pair will reverse downwards

Current trend
At the end of last week European currency started to strengthen against the USD amid negative US labour market statistics. Yesterday, additional pressure on the American currency was caused by the negative data on the US business activity index. The pair EUR/USD went up and almost reached key resistance level and the local highs of 1.1050.

Today, European currency started to lose positions due to negative news on business activity index in France and Eurozone. In addition, attention shall be focused on producer price index in Eurozone and US nonfarm payroll and some other US news.

It is worth noting that following any upward correction, European currency comes under pressure from investors. Amid long-term downward correction and complicated macro-economic situation in Eurozone, investors sell European currency at the key resistance levels, as they await that Euro will weaken. If plus to this fundamental catalysts also indicate the decline, then Euro is sharply losing positions versus the USD.

Support and resistance
Today, the pair EUR/USD can go further down up to support level of 1.0710. In the medium-term downtrend will continue.
Support levels: 1.0860, 1.0810, 1.0810, 1.0660, 1.0580, 1.0550, 1.0500 and 1.0460.
Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1010, 1.1050, 1.1110, 1.1160, 1.1240 and 1.1290.

Trading tips
It makes sense to open short positions from resistance levels of 1.0940, 1.1010 and 1.1050 and stop-loss above resistance level of 1.1050 and take profit at the levels of 1.0620 and 1.0550.




Analytics by LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of NZD/USD

NZD/USD, H4
Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, both lines are directed steeply up. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud has reversed from descending to ascending. The pair has broken through the cloud and is trying to consolidate above its upper border (0.7543). The next obstacle for the price on its way up will be one of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line (0.7661).



NZD/USD, D1
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen is above Kijun-sen, the blue line remains horizontal, while the red one is turning down. Chinkou Span line is crossing the price chart from below; current cloud has reversed from descending to ascending. The pair has broken through the cloud and is still rising towards 0.7654. The upper border of the cloud is going to be a support level (0.7532).



Key levels
Support levels: 0.7543, 0.7532.
Resistance levels: 0.7661, 0.7654.

Trading tips
On the both charts the price has broken through the cloud, which is a strong signal to buy. First target for the long positions will be around 0.7654.


Analytics by LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: remains a chance of significant correction

Current trend

This week, the pair USD/JPY had repeatedly tested important resistance level of 120.30, but failed to break it down. At the beginning of this week the pair regained after last Friday’s decline. However, on Wednesday the announcement by the Bank of Japan, that monetary policy would remain unchanged, has caused short-term correction. Investors had expected that new incentive measures would be introduced, but Japanese regulator did not let it happen. Today, the price has again tested the level of 120.30, failed to consolidate above this level and is now undergoing correction.
Today, the data on the primary and secondary applications for unemployment benefits in the US will become known. On Friday, quotes can be affected by the Chinese inflation statistics for March.

Support and resistance

Currently, key level is 119.85 (middle line of “Bollinger bands”). Breakout of this level will enable further decline in price to the levels of 119.40 and 119.00. Otherwise, the price can again test the level of 120.30.
In general, technical indicators show that the decline in quotes will continue. MACD histogram is in the positive zone; its volumes are decreasing again. Stochastic lines are crossing, going down.

Support levels: 119.85, 119.40 and 119.00.
Resistance levels: 120.30, 120.75 and 121.30.

Trading tips

In the current situation short positions with the target of 119.40 can be opened in case of consolidation of the price below the level of 119.85. Long positions are recommended if the price breaks down the level of 120.30. If it happens, the target of the long positions will be the level of 120.75.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: Pound can reach five-year lows

Current trend

After reaching the key resistance level of 1.4990, the pair GBP/USD sharply went down, breaking down important support levels of 1.4800, 1.4750 and 1.4700. Such rapid decline in the pair was primarily caused by strengthening in the USD after the release of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve. The majority of the American regulator voted for the increase in interest rates this June. In addition, main British macro-economic data this week were negative, which triggered the decline in the British currency.

Today, the Pound was affected by the data on industrial production and production in the manufacturing industry, as both indices have been lower than expected. In the afternoon, US import price index and Federal budget report will become known.
Support and resistance

Now, the pair is traded at the local lows of 1.4640. If the American session finishes favourably for the USD, the lows can be exceeded. In the given situation it is difficult to envisage up to what level the pair can fall in the next few months. Note, however, that the key support levels are: 1.4590, 1.4510, 1.4380 и 1.4250 (five -year lows).

Support levels: 1.4700, 1.4750, 1.4800, 1.4900, 1.4990 and 1.5050.
Resistance levels: 1.4640, 1.4590, 1.4510, 1.4380 and 1.4250.

Trading tips

It is recommended to trade on trend, opening short positions after breakdown of the local lows of 1.4640 with take profit at the levels of 1.4380 and 1.4250. Alternative scenario is to wait for the rebound from the key support level 1.4640 and then open long positions at the current price with the short stop-loss and long take profit.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
The pair EUR/USD continues to lose positions at today’s trades. The USD has been strengthening for the 6th consecutive day amid expectations of the increase in the interest rate by the US Fed. After the release of the minutes of the meeting of the Open Market Committee, investors begun to believe that the US monetary authorities can introduce this measure as early as this June. The assumption is supported by the positive statistics on the American labor market. In addition, last Friday, import price index (which is a leading inflation indicator, indirectly affecting interest rate decision), fell not as significantly, as had been expected by the experts. The index fell by 0.3% against expectation of 0.4%.
On the other hand, Euro is still under pressure from situation in Europe. The “Times” said the EU authorities allegedly have worked out a scheme to expel Greece from EU. The document was drawn up by Finance Ministry of Finland in collaboration with Germany and provides for specific tools to exclude Greece from the zone of European currency.
The day is not going to be very eventful today. Trades are likely to be quiet. If European currency finds support at the nearest support level, the correction may take place.

Support and resistance
Support levels are the local lows of 1.0520, 1.0462 and 1.0342.
Resistance levels: 1.0619 (Asian session’s lows), 1.0700 (important psychological level), 1.0788 (highs of 9 April), 1.0887 (highs of 8 April).

Trading tips
It makes sense to open short positions if the price breaks down the level of 1.0520 with the first target of 1.0460 and the next one at 1.0350. Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.0620 with the targets of 1.0700 and 1.0788.



Analytics by LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: energy prices will grow

Current trend

At the beginning of April the price of oil has grown amid weakening in the USD. In addition, the news from the US shale giants is negative: large companies have suspended drilling rigs operations and reduced the number of new rigs; many companies bear losses, therefore in the near future oil production will drop significantly.

On the other hand, volume of production in Saudi Arabia has reached the new peak in March, while oil from Iran will flood the market as soon sanctions on Tehran’s nuclear program are lifted.
Despite the increasing volume of oil production in some countries, it is clear that in the current situation, energy value is underestimated. It is likely that production volume will settle down soon, and the price will reach stability. By the third quarter oil shall consolidate within the range of 70-80 USD per barrel.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 57.35, 56.50, 56.10, 55.40, 54.60, 54.00, 53.50 and 52.50.
Resistance levels: 59.10, 59.50, 60.00, 60.80, 61.35, 62.50, 63.05 and 65.00.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to open long positions and pending long positions from the key support levels with take profit at the levels of 62.50, 63.00 and 65.00.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: demand for the USD will continue to grow

Current trend

This week the American currency has been declining against major currencies, including the Yen. The decline in the USD is associated with the negative macro-economic statistics on retail sales, key indices and US industrial production. At the same time, Japanese currency has received support from economic news. Investors started to take profit on long positions, which decreases demand for the USD.

Today, the pair is moving in the narrow range of 119.10-119.50. Today’s economic news will include the data on the US construction sector, labor market and US manufacturing production. It is expected that tomorrow American indices will be positive. In addition, Japanese consumer confidence index will be known. Although this index fell in February, it is expected to increase in March.

Support and resistance

It is expected that following slight decline, the price of the USD will increase. The pair has dropped to the key support level of 119.10; now it is possible that the price will reverse and the USD will go up. In the medium-term the rise in the pair can reach the levels of 120.30 and 120.70. Breakdown of these levels will open the way to the local highs of 122.00.

Support levels: 119.10, 118.85, 118.40, 118.00 and 117.70.
Resistance levels: 119.70, 120.00, 120.30, 120.70, 121.20, 121.50 and 122.00.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open long positions at the current price and pending long positions from the level of 118.40, with take profit of 120.70 and 122.00 and stop-loss at 118.00.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: Poor US statistics pull the pair upwards

Current trend

Throughout all week, the European currency has been growing against the USD, undergoing deep corrections. The rise in the pair was mainly driven by negative US macro-economic statistics on the main sectors of the US economy. On Monday U.S. negative data on retail sales, key indices, industrial production and labor market became known. Because of the negative impact of the US releases, the pair has not reacted to the statement of the Greek leaders about possibility of default in the country. Demand for the European currency has increased significantly and the pair has grown by over 250 points over this trading week. Currently, European currency is traded at the level of 1.0820 against the USD. Today’s meeting of IMF will be of special interest, as situation in Greece will be discussed there. In addition, American consumer price and consumer confidence indices will become known. However, strengthening in the Euro is not possible until financial problems in Greece are not resolved. It means that investors will sell the pair EUR/USD from the key resistance levels. The rise in the pair can be possible only if American statistics continue to be negative.

Support and resistance

In the medium-term upward correction in the pair will slow down and the pair will go down to 1.0635, 1.0575 and 1.0530. Downtrend will continue, therefore, short positions are preferable.

Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0740, 1.0680, 1.0635, 1.0575 and 1.0530, 1.0500.
Resistance levels: 1.0880, 1.0940, 1.1030, 1.1105, 1.1170 and 1.1215.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open short positions at the current price from the key resistance level and take profit at the level of 1.0575.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

During yesterday’s trades the price of the precious metal significantly dropped amid strengthening in the USD. The price of XAU/USD fell to 1191.17. Significant rise in the USD was caused by the statement made by William Dudley, the head of the Reserve Bank of New York. He expressed optimism about economic recovery in the USA and said that interest rates will be raised this year.
Nevertheless, some uncertainty has been created by the data on the US inflation. According to Dudley, the latest data on this index was not good enough to justify the increase in rates in the nearest future. US deflation amounted to 0.1% on annual basis versus expectation of zero inflation; on the monthly basis inflation rose up to 0.2% versus expectation of 0.3%.
As important news releases are not scheduled for today, it is likely that the pair will undergo correction after yesterday’s decline.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1198.60 (middle line of Bollinger bands), 1208.90 (yesterday’s highs), 1214.00 (upper line of Bollinger bands), 1224.90 (Fibonacci retracement of 50%).

Support levels: 1191.17 (yesterday’s lows), 1183.74 (lows of 14 April 2015, bottom line of Bollinger bands), 1178.24 (lows of 31 March 2015), 1170.00 (important psychological level).

Trading tips

Buy positions are recommended below the level of 1199.00 with the first target of 1208.50 and the next one at 1214.00. Sell positions can be opened above the level of 1191.10 with the targets of 1184.00 and 1178.50.



Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: the rise in the pair will continue

Current trend

On Tuesday, quotes in the pair GBP/USD rose again after minor correction on Monday. The USD was under pressure from ZEW business activity index in Eurozone, which was above expectations. In April, this index amounted to 64.8 points.

Today, the price will continue to rise up to 1.5050, despite the release of the minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of England, which was not favourable for the GBP. Bank officials believe that British economy will face deflation in the nearest months and inflation growth rate will be slow until the end of this year. They are also concerned about low rise in salaries, as although its growth is ahead of inflation, it is yet not sufficient.

There will not be any important news today, which can affect movement in the pair. However, on Thursday, attention shall be paid to the British retail sales for March and preliminary business activity index in the manufacturing sector of the USA from Markit.

Support and resistance

The pair has broken down the upper line of Bollinger bands indicator, which can provoke correction to 1.4990 and 1.4945. On the other hand, the bands are diverging, which indicates upward trend.
Other technical indicators show the rise in quotes. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, crossing the signal line from top to bottom. Stochastic lines have crossed and turned upwards.

Support levels: 1.4990, 1.4945 and 1.4855.
Resistance levels: 1.5050, 1.5100 and 1.5160.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 1.5050 with the targets of 1.5100 and 1.5160. If the price consolidates below the level of 1.4990, it is advisable to open short-term short positions with the target of 1.4945.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited