LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general overview

Current trend

EUR/USD regained ground yesterday after a protracted fall. The greenback was under pressure due to US downbeat data. The volume of retail sales reduced by 0.6% instead of growing by 0.5%, as expected. Negative sales dynamics have lasted for 3 months in a row. Last assessment period showed a 0.8% decrease. Analysts are linking the depressive statistics to a longer winter season in the northern states which holds back business activity.
However, EUR/USD failed to really claw back previous losses as the euro is weak due to the ECB's current QE program.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1,0682 (yesterday's maximum), 1.0750 (consolidation zone on 10th March), 1.0800 (important psychological level), 1.1855 (10th March's maximum).
Support levels: 1.0564 (minimum of the Asian session), 1.0494 (yesterday's minimum), 1.0431 (minimum recorded in August 1997).

Trading tips

Go short after a level of 1.0560 has been broken down. Short-term target - 1.0500, main target - 1.0431. Buy from a level of 1.0690 with targets at 1.0750 and 1.0800.



Andrey Cherkas
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: the pair is under correction after yesterday's growth

Current trend

NZD/USD has been highly volatile his week. Quotes dropped to a level of 0.7274 on Tuesday once the information on an 8.8% decrease in dairy prices was published. However, the price increased sharply on Wednesday having reached a 2-week high at 0.7547. The increase was due to FED's meeting where the outlook for US GDP growth for a few next years was downgraded. Thus, it may amount to 2,3%-2,7% instead of 2,5%-3,0% in 2015-2016. Besides, the NZ currency was supported with positive data on NZ GDP over the fourth quarter 2014. The month-on-month and year-on-year increase amounted to 0,8% and 3.5%, respectively, which was better than expected.

Support and resistance

From technical point of view, the pair is trading within an upward channel. The price has reached its upper border and started a correction that is going on at the present time. A level of 0.7380 (middle line of Bollinger bands) seems to be bears' key target. Once it's broken down, the price may drop to the lower border of the channel to about 0.7325-0.7300. If not, a level of 0.7600 may become bulls' new goal. The rest of indicators are producing opposite signals. The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are stable. Stochastic lines reversed downwards.

Support levels: 0.7380, 0.7325, 0.7300.
Resistance levels: 0.7450, 0.7547, 0.7600.

Trading tips

Short positions with a target of 0.7300 should be opened in case the price breaks a level of 0.7380. Long positions may be opened after the price breaks a level of 0.7450. The first target of such positions would be a level of 0.7547, the second target — 0.7600.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: general overview

Current trend

As expected, Brent crude oil dropped yesterday to about 54.00 due to a technical correction, but failed either to consolidate below or push off from this level. For want of important macroeconomic releases market participants have not been active and the market has been quite calm. At the same time, many analysts think that the growth of oil prices won't last long. The increase in US oil stocks and the high oil production rate in OPEC countries cannot but affect oil quotes.

Support and resistance

On the H4 chart, technical indicators suggest that the downward movement will continue. The MACD histogram is located in the negative zone and its volumes are increasing, pointing to a further downward movement. Bollinger bands are diverging, reflecting the power of the uptrend.

Resistance levels: 55.00, 56.00, 57.00, 58.00.
Support levels: 54.00, 53.00, 52.00, 51.00.

Trading tips

Open short positions at current price with the nearest target at 53.00. When the level of 53.00 is broken down, Brent may drop to 52.00. The consolidation of the price above 55.00 will hint at a formation of an upward movement. If so, buyers' next target will be a level of 56.00.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of EUR/USD

EUR/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both directed upwards. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The pair has broken through the cloud and is still rising. The closest support level is the upper border of the cloud (1.0789). One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 1.0430.



EUR/USD, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. After long fall the pair has been corrected above Tenakn-sen line, which is now a support level (1.0738). The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line at 1.0959.



Key levels

Support levels: 1.0789, 1.0738.
Resistance levels: 1.1030, 1.0959.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart we’ve got a signal to buy, however, on the daily one Bearish trend is still strong. Long trades can be opened at current price with targets at 1.0959 and 1.1030.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: general review

Current trend

Gold quotes continue to rise slowly as Fed failed to provide information on the dates of an interest rate rise at the latest meeting. An important resistance level is at 1200.00 and coincides with M200 moving average. If the price consolidates above it, it may continue to grow to 1250.00-1265.00.

On the whole, as many experts believe, gold remains a perfect asset for increasing money due to low interest rates worldwide. If Asian economies carry on growing, the demand for gold will continue to increase and the price may reach a level of $2000.00 per troy ounce in the next few years. The second factor that could lead to the appreciation of gold in the long term is central banks' desire for buying up the precious metal. Seventy-five tons of gold per year approximately has been bought up in recent years. It's also worth noting that the gold trading centre may move to China. Not all international investors may participate in gold trading due to local restrictions, but experts think that their cancellation is only a matter of time.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level is still at 1195.15 – 1/8 (1/8 Murray)
The nearest support level is at 1187.50 (8/8 Murray)

Trading tips

Go long after a level of 1195.15 is broken and place protective orders near a level of 1187.00 with a target at 1245.00.



Dmitriy Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

EUR/USD clawed back a part of lost positions after yesterday's fall. The dollar was supported on Tuesday after publication of statistics for US inflation. Core consumer price index grew by 1.7% year-on-year and by 0.2% month-on-month. Both indexes were higher than expected. Today, market participants are waiting for February's data on US durable goods orders that are forecast to decrease.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators are pointing to the end of a correctional upward movement on the H4 chart. Bollinger bands are diverging, confirming the continuation of a downward movement. The MACD histogram is located in the positive zone, but its volumes are reducing, pointing to sellers' growing influence.

The resistance levels are: 1.0975, 1.1030, 1.1085, and 1.1140.
Support levels: 1.0890, 1.0855, 1.0810, 1.0765.

Trading tips

The price is very likely to drop soon to a level of 1.0890, the moving average of Bollinger bands. If the level of 1.0890 is firmly broken, sellers will attempt to assault a level of 1.0855. In case of consolidation below the latter, the price may continue falling to 1.0810 and 1.0765.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: potential for growth exists

Current trend

AUD/USD has continued to trade within a wide upward channel this week. Today, quotes have reached its lower border and then started to rally again. The price is currently located near the middle line of Bollinger bands coinciding with a level of 0.7855. The bands themselves are narrowing as it happens ahead of a serious price jump. Market participants are not likely to risk before tomorrow's publication of final statistics for US GDP over the last year. The US economy is expected to register a slight growth of 2.4%, which may put pressure on the dollar.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators are pointing to an upcoming price growth. Bollinger Bands are directed upwards. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are stable. Stochastic lines reversed upwards.

Support levels: 0.7855, 0.7800 0.7710.
Resistance levels: 0.7915, 0.7950.

Trading tips

Long positions with a target at 0.7915 and 0.7950 opened at current price seem relevant to the situation. Short positions can be opened in case the price drops below 0.7855. Their target would be a level of 0.7800.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: waiting for publication of US GDP

Current trend

This week, GBP/USD quotes have tested a resistance level of 1.4980 a couple of times, but failed to break it down. The latest attempt was made on Thursday after publication of positive statistics for UK retail sales. The index registered a 5.1% year-on-year increase and 0.7% month-on-month increase, with both values exceeding forecasts. However, it should be noted that the increase in sales is due to the fuel sector whose prices have seriously decreased lately. The positive effect did not last long, and the pair had lost points by the end of the day.

Publication of final statistics for US GDP over the last year will be today's most important release. The indicator is expected to amount to 2.4% in fourth quarter, which is worse than the value of the third quarter when GDP showed a 5.0% increase. The increase will not be unexpected news for market participants, though, as preliminary information had hinted at it twice. On the whole, if the forecast proves to be correct, the American currency may be under slight pressure and the quotes may drop to 1.4980 again. But if US GDP exceeds forecasts, the price has all chances to fall to the levels 1.4800, 1.4725 and, probably, 1.4670.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price is located near the middle line of Bollinger bands, failing either to overcome it or drop below. The MACD histogram is not producing clear signals either, as it's located near the zero line and its volumes are insignificant. Only Stochastic lines have turned upwards, producing a signal to buy.

Support levels: 1.5210, 1.5155.
Resistance levels: 1.5275, 1.5335.

Trading tips

Long positions should be opened with profit fixing at about 1.4980 if the price consolidates above 1.4880. Short positions should be relevant once the price breaks down the level of 1.4880 and drops to 1.4830. Their target would be the level of 1.4725.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: the euro rallies on investors' interest

Current trend
Last week, Germany published strong data on key indexes that supported the European currency, and EUR/USD reached the key resistance level and local high at 1.1000. At the end of the last trading week, the American currency re-appreciated against the Euro against a backdrop of positive statistics for US labour market and weak data on the eurozone's loan sector.

The pair is slowly falling today, currently trading at 1.0830. The publication of consumer price indexes for Germany and the eurozone is worth attention today as the indexes are expected to grow. In its turn, the USA will publish data on personal spending and core price index. Positive statistics from the eurozone will increase investors' demand. But the Greek issue remains the key growth catalyst of the EUR/USD: if a new loan agreement is reached in the shortest time, the Euro may start growing in price.

Support and resistance
In the medium term, the pair is expected to rise to a level of 1.1000. Breakdown of the local low will provide a way to the levels of 1.1110 and 1.1245. If US statistics turn out to be upbeat, the pair will consolidate in the sideward range of 1.0800-1.1000. However, the trend is still downward; therefore long positions should be opened carefully with Stop Loss below 1.0770.
Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0770, 1.0680, 1.0615, 1.0550, 1.0460.
Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0950, 1.1015, 1.1050, 1.1110, 1.1245.

Trading tips
With an eye to appreciation of the oversold euro, long positions should be opened with a short Stop Loss and profit fixing at 1.1110 and 1.1245.



Dmitriy Likhachev
Analyst at LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF

USD/CHF, H4
Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line has crossed the price chart from above; current Kumo-cloud has reversed from descending to ascending. The pair has entered the cloud and is trying the break down its lower border. The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line (0.9656). the next obstacle for the price on its way down will be one of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line at 0.9502.



USD/CHF, D1
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from above, indicating the beginning of trend reversal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. The pair has been corrected under Kijun-sen (0.9789) and Tenkan-sen (0.9650) lines. Upper border of the cloud will be a support level at 0.9385.



Key levels
Support levels: 0.9502, 0.9385.
Resistance levels: 0.9650, 0.9656, 0.9808.

Trading tips
On the four-hour chart the pair is trying to consolidate below the cloud, while on the daily one we’ve got a strong signal to sell. Targets for the sell positions are 0.9502 and 0.9385.


Analytics by LiteForex Investments Limited