LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday, Brent crude oil tested a level of 60.00. A compromise regarding financial assistance to Greece contributed to the growth of oil quotes. The EU's finance ministers had approved of a Greek reform plan and extended bailout terms for another 4 months. In particular, the Greek government had promised to continue selling state-owned assets, consolidate pension funds to cut expenses, take measures to fight tax dodgers and smugglers and to introduce progressive taxes.
However, Brent price failed to hold above 60.00. The tools had fallen to a level of 57.97 by the end of the day. Fundamental factors continue to hang over oil prices and oversupply still causes hydrocarbon prices to fall.
The black gold follows a positive trend trading at about 59.00 today. The developement of Chinese production activity along with FED's flexible attitude to an interest rate rise support Brent oil rates.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 57.68 (middle line of Bollinger bands), 60.00 (important psychological level), 61.00 (20th February's maximum), 62.00 (important psychological level), 62.84 (17th February's maximum), 63.90 (upper line of Bollinger bands).
Support levels: 57.68 (middle line of Bollinger bands), 56.00 (38,2% Fibonacci retracement), 55.00 (important psychological level), 53.90 (50% Fibonacci retracement).

Trading tips

If the current trend continues, opening long positions will become relevant from a level of 60.10 with the nearest target at 61.00 and the second target at 62.80. A firm breakdown of the level 57.60 will open a way to the levels 56.00 and 53.90, from which there may resume an uptrend within the framework of technical correction.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: sideways channel to be replaced by bullish trend

Current trend

The European currency carries on trading in a wide sideways range of 100-180 points against the dollar. Yesterday before noon, the pair fell again to a key support level of 1.1285. This level became a sort of barrier for the bears as the pair failed to cross it 7 times. The market trend is currently flat. The pair needs fundamental catalysts to leave the channel.
Upbeat data on consumer confidence index has been published today in Germany, but the labour market statistics were not as positive and therefore the pair showed almost no reaction to this data. Besides, statistics for key indexes will be released in the eurozone today. The US is to publish consumer price index and labour market statistics.

The pair will continue to move within a current range of 1.1285-1.1450. In the medium term, the pair may rise to new local highs against a backdrop of the US weakening economy, negative data on labour market and GDP that will be published tomorrow. What's more, macroeconomic data from Germany hints that the euozone's economy is gradually recovering from protracted recession. It means that positive news from Germany will push the European currency upwards.

Support and resistance

In the medium term, the pair is expected to rise to the levels 1.1530 and 1.1600.
Support levels: 1.1285, 1.1225, 1.1170, 1.1100, 1.1050.
Resistance levels: 1.1385, 1.1410, 1.1450, 1.1530, 1.1600, 1.1700, 1.1750.

Trading tips

It would be wise to trade within the current range from the key support and resistance levels, but it's necessary to limit losses with Stop Losses placed beyond the limits of the range in case the price breaks through. In the medium term, buy the oversold euro with targets at 1.1530 and 1.1600.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

The GBP/USD refreshed local highs at about 1.5550 yesterday morning but failed to hold at that level and moved downwards straight away. The US consumer price index released yesterday raised the demand for the American currency and the pair dropped to a level of 1.5400.

Statistics for US GDP are worth attention today as they can affect the pair. The forecasts are quite downbeat, and the GBP has all chances to claw back losses.

The GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.5400. If the bears manage to consolidate below, the pair is very likely to refresh lows at about 1.5300. The pair continues to trade within an uptrend and is located near the lower limit of the channel, whose breakdown will be a cue for a trend reversal. Technically, the readings of the indicators are different. MACD is in the positive zone, but the signal line is directed downwards, and the histogram is about to move to the negative zone, while Stochastic is in the oversold zone and produces a strong signal to buy.

Support and resistance

The resistance levels are 1.5420, 1.5440, 1.5465, 1.5500. Bulls' main target is to get back above 1.5450. The support levels are 1.5385, 1.5350, 1.5315.

Trading tips

Sell below 1.5385 and buy above 1.5450. Place Limit Buy orders at 1.5390.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[small_pips]

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[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: general analysis

Current trend
Brent crude oil quotes rose above a level of 62.00 on Friday, reaching a maximum at 62.66 due to the fears that gas supplies from Russia to the European Union would be hampered. The situation had been caused with Ukraine failing to pay its fuel bill, while being the main gas transit country. A meeting between Russia and the EU concerning the issue is to take place today.
Another factor that influenced Brent price was news from Norway. The Statoil Company had suspended operation of its Statfjord C platform in the North Sea after having discovered cracks in the flare tower. More than 81 000 bbl of oil were produced in this oilfield last year.

Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 62.66 (Friday’s maximum), 63.60 (upper line of Bollinger bands), 65.00 (important psychological level), 66.87 (maximum of 12th December 2014).
Support levels: 61.65 (minimum of the Asian session), 60.39 (Friday's minimum), 59.10 (middle line of Bollinger Bands), 57.68 (minimum of 19th February 2015).

Trading tips
If the current trend continues, opening short positions will be relevant from the level of 60.60 with the nearest target at about 60.40 and second target at 59.10. In case of a firm breakdown of the level 62.70, Brent will have a way to the levels 63.60 and 65.00.



Andrey Cherkas
Analyst at LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: Investors waiting for fundamental news

Current trend

The USD/JPY grew at the beginning of the week reaching a 3-week high at 120.26. However, by Wednesday the pair had lost some positions and the price is currently located at 119.60. The quotes are likely to remain within a range of 119.35-119.70 as market participants are waiting for fundamental news of the week: ECB President Mario Draghi's statement and publication of February's economic statistics for the US labour market.

It's worth noting that the pair has been long testing a resistance level of 120.00 but can't hold above. In the meanwhile, the Bank of Japan refrains from further stimulation measures fearing that the economy will overheat. The market therefore has no incentives for overcoming this barrier.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price has dropped below the middle line of the Bollinger bands, which will probably allow the pair to decline further to a level of 119.35. At the same time, a breakdown of the level 119.70 may lead to a slight growth to a level of 120.10. Technical indicators are producing opposite signals. Bollinger bands have started to narrow. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines reversed upwards.

Support levels: 119.35, 118.95, 118.50.
Resistance levels: 119.70, 120.10.

Trading tips

This situation rather implies short positions that can be opened at current price with the target at 119.35. Long positions with a target of 120.10 should be opened in case the price breaks down a level of 119.70.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: Fundamental catalysts to define further trend

Current trend

All major currencies, including the pound, were under pressure on Wednesday owing to the dollar strengthening against a backdrop of US upbeat statistics. Besides, UK service sector PMI dropped to 56.7 despite positive forecasts of 57.6.
Today, the pair has reached a level of 1.5225 and then has slightly corrected upwards. The Bank of England's decision on interest rates and volumes of the bond purchase program along with Mark Carney's statement are worth attention out of today's all fundamental releases. Eurozone key statistics will be released later on. Should they be weak, the dollar will have additional support. Finally, the USA will publish the Non Farm Productivity index.
It is hard to define a further movement when almost all depends on fundamental catalysts, but remember that the trend reversal was not successful, and the downtrend prevails at the moment. Bank of England's decision on interest rates will hardly affect the pair substantially, but Carney's statement could either strengthen the pound or put extra pressure on it. However, US statistics can define a further trend and provoke high volatility. If today's data proves to be upbeat, the dollar will strengthen significantly.

Support and resistance

In the medium term, wait for the US currency to strengthen and the GBP/USD to drop to key support levels at 1.5180, 1.5100. A low at 1.4950 last seen at the end of January can be tested in the long term,
Support levels: 1.5225, 1.5200, 1.5180, 1.5100, 1.5060, 1.5035, 1.5010, 1.4950.
Resistance levels: 1.5275, 1.5350, 1.5375, 1.5430, 1.5500, 1.5550, 1.5600.

Trading tips

Open short positions from the key resistance levels 1.5275, 1.5300, 1.5375 with profit fixing at 1.5100-1.4950.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend
GBP/USD reached this month's lowest value on Friday, having dropped to a value of 1.5031. The pound weakened owing to the strengthening of the US dollar. Data on non-farm payrolls turned out to be better than expected, demonstrating an increase in new jobs by 295 thousand against a forecast of 241 thousand and the previous value of 239 thousand. The unemployment rate decreased by 0.2% and amounted to 5.5%, which is better than a forecast of 5.6%.
Last Thursday, the Bank of England kept interest rates at the same record low level of 0.5% set in March 2009. The Central Bank also kept the asset purchase program volumes unchanged, at a level of 375 billion pounds.
This week, the pound will be influenced by statistics for manufacturing and industrial production volumes in the UK. The outlook for these 2 indexes are quite upbeat and the British currency will be able to recover slightly.

Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 1.5100 (lower line of Bollinger bands), 1.5200 (important psychological level), 1.5226 (6th March's maximum) 1.5345 (middle line of Bollinger bands), 1.5461 (27th February's maximum).
Support levels are local lows at 1.5031, 1.4952, 1.4900 and 1.4850.

Trading tips
Buy after a level of 1.5100 is broken with the first target at 1.5200 and second target at 1.5256. Sell from a level of 1.5030 with targets at 1.4950 and 1.4900.



Andrey Cherkas
Analyst at LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of EUR/USD

EUR/USD, H4
Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. The pair is trading within the downward trend and is moving towards the level of 1.7015. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (1.0820).



EUR/USD, D1
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is also below Kijun-sen, however, both lines are directed steeply down, reflecting the strength of the trend. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (1.1056). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1.0700.



Key levels
Support levels: 1.0715, 1.0700.
Resistance levels: 1.0820, 1.1056.

Trading tips
On the both charts Bearish trend is still strong and the pair continues to fall. Targets for the short positions are 1.0715 and 1.0700.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst at LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: upward trend is still strong

Current trend

This week the pair USD/JPY was testing the level of 122.00, but couldn't overcome it. Today the pair is being corrected due to the positive stats on Japanese indices: Consumer Confidence increased by 1,6 points, exceeding forecasts, while Tertiary Industry Activity index reached the peak since March 2014.
Today investors are waiting for the February Retail Sales release in USA. The indicator is expected to increase and support national currency.

Support and resistance

From the technical point of view the price has broken down middle MA of Bollinger Bands and is moving towards the lower MA. The closest target for the Bears is 120.75. This is also a possible pivot point; the pair can reverse and go up to the levels of 121.30 and 122.00, especially if US stats are positive. Other indicators give signals to sell. MACD histogram is in positive zone, but its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines are directed downwards.

Support levels: 120.75, 120.50.
Resistance levels: 121.30, 122.00.

Trading tips

Short-term sell trades can be opened at current price with targets within the range of 120.75-120.50. Pending buy orders should be placed at 120.75 with take-profits at 121.30 and 122.00.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited