LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/CHF: General analysis

Current trend

Analysis of the four-hour chart shows that although bearish sentiments dominate in the market, the pair GBP/CHF exceeded the pivot points at the level of 1.4597 and at the moment is testing the level of 1.4634. The Pound started to grow against the CHF. The pair was supported by favourable British macro-economic data. It became known that business activity index in the service sector has exceeded the forecast, amounting to 60.3 points. Investors believe that the Bank of England may introduce tightening of the monetary policy earlier than expected. However, it is worth noting that at the moment the Pound looks overvalued and its rate is above all forecasts.

“Bollinger bands” indicator, as well as MACD shows that the pair will grow. Moving average line of “Bollinger bands” is directed upward, while histogram of MACD is in the oversold zone and its volumes are decreasing.


Support and resistance /b]

Support level: 1.4597.
Resistance levels: 1.4625, 1.4630, 1.4637 and 1.4660.

[b]Trading tips

Regardless the signals of technical indicators I recommend to open short positions from the current level of price with stop-loss at the levels of 1.4637 and 1.4646. Long positions at the current price level can be opened if resistance level of 1.4637 is broken down.



Andrey Chupov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CAD: Technical analysis

USD/CAD, H4

This week, the currency pair USD/CAD has traded in the uptrend. On Monday the price broke down the lower limit of the channel and reached the level of 1.0276; however soon the price went back to the limits of the channel. Such price behavior was triggered by the data on Canadian GDP, which rose by 0.6% in July.
On the four-hour chart Bollinger bands are directed upward; the price chart rapidly goes to the upper moving average line, giving a chance of the upward movement up to the level of 1.0350 or even up to 1.0390. MACD histogram is in the overbought zone, not giving clear signals yet. Stochastic lines are directed upward.



USD/CAD, D1

On the daily chart Bollinger bands demonstrate strong consolidation, which usually takes priority of the strong price movement. This strong movement can be caused by the decision on the American budget. The price chart has moved to the upper band, suggesting that ascending movement can reach the level of 1.0390. MACD histogram is in the oversold zone, its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines are directed upward.



Trading tips

Judging by the technical indicator we can assume that in the near future the price will go up to the levels of 1.0350 and 1.0390. In the medium-term the price can reverse and go down. As a trading strategy I recommend to open long positions from the current price level with profit taking at 1.0390.

Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: Growth in the USD is not expected

Current trend

The American dollar continues to weaken amid budget crisis and due to the fact that some government organizations in the USA have not been operating for the fourth day. Insuperable contradictions between Democrats and Republicans have prevented from approval of the next year budget. The longer the officials will stay in the enforced leave, the more losses will bear the American economy. The crisis has already thrown aside EUR/USD to the four-week lows. Due to suspension of the government activities, the data on number of jobs outside agricultural sector, which is usually issued on the first Friday of the month, has been released. It is likely that the USD will continue to weaken until Congressmen do not reach consensus.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level is 1.3650; the main target of the “bulls” is the level of 1.3700. Support levels are 1.3600, 1.3585 and 1.3575.

Trading tips

It is likely that amid the development of the crisis the pair will go up to the level of 1.3700; however, it is unlikely that the pair will exceed this level.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/CHF: Euro is regaining positions

Current trend
Experts predict that European GDP will go up, which will add additional momentum to the pair EUR/CHF. In addition, the most optimistic investors expect the rise of the consumer price index and growth of retail sales in Switzerland. The US economic situation also has influence on European currency, since attention of the market participants are focused on the problem of the American state debt.

Support and resistance
Analysis of the four-hour chart suggests that the currency pair will go up. The signal line of MACD indicator has crossed the zero line; histogram is in the overbought zone. Moving average line of “Bollinger Bands” indicator is directed upward, confirming ascending trend. The price has entered the cloud of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator, indicating that market is flat. Levels of support and resistance are the boundaries of the cloud.

Support levels: 1.2227, 1.2250.
Resistance levels: 1.2282, 1.2294, 1.2308.


Trading tips
As a trading strategy it is recommended to open long positions at the current price with profit taking at resistance levels of 1.2282, 1.2294 and 1.2308.



Andrey Chupov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Situation of the US budget “paralysis” has not been resolved yet. Due to this fact macro-economic statistics scheduled for the release last Friday, has not been published. Nevertheless, the pair fell to the level of 1.3536. Nearly 800 thousand employees of various Ministries and Departments do not go to work.
The US economic problems are becoming politicized, as everyone clearly realize that sooner or later the ceiling of the public debt will be raised legally and current situation is just an excuse for Republicans and Democrats to measure their strength against each other. Changes in the exchange rate are not expected until resolution of the US budget problem.
Fundamental factor that can cause movement in the pair today- will be European statistics. It is expected that investor confidence index in Eurozone Sentix will go up to 10.9 points. Final data on European GDP coincides with the preliminary data; the index will amount to 0.3%. All these facts can provide support to Euro and trigger the rise in the price of the pair up to the local highs of 1.3645, which is near the upper moving average of “Bollinger bands: indicator.

Support and resistance
The nearest resistance level is at the moving average line of “Bollinger bands: indicator. Breakdown of this level will give a buy signal. The pair is supported by the local lows at the level of 1.3536 and 23.6% Fibonacci (1.3518).

Trading tips
As a trading strategy I recommend to open long positions with the target of 1.3645.



Kamil Avad
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: review

Current trend

Following recent significant growth rate, quotes of Brent are declining. Oil price is under pressure from the news that oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has been resumed in previous volumes. Last week oil and gas companies of the Gulf of Mexico temporarily suspended oil production because of threat of tropical storm; however at the end of the week production was resumed.
Situation of the US budget does not add optimism to market participants. Congressmen were not able to come to consensus about the state debt of the country, thus condemning country’s economy to default. Situation in the oil market depends on the news from the USA.

Support and resistance /b]

Support levels: 108.05, 107.60 and 106.70.
Resistance levels: 109.80 and 110.00.

[b]Trading tips

In case of breakdown of the level of 108.05, it is recommended to open short positions with the target of 107.60.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 1-11.10.2013

Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site http://www.liteforex.com/?uid=434248008

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

This week the pair has been trading within a range of 60 points. Today it dropped down to the level of 1.3515 due to the negative macroeconomic data from Great Britain. UK Trading Balance and Industrial Production index appeared to be lower than expected. However the strengthening of the Dollar won’t last long because of the budget crisis in USA. Market players have lost their faith in American economy; as a result the return of 1 month US treasury bills has increased considerably. Investors are afraid the negotiations will be postponed.

Support and resistance

The pair is trading under the lower MA of the Bollinger Bands indicator, showing the possibility of an upward correction towards middle MA (1.3560). The continuation of the fall down to the level of 1.3460 is also possible. The later possibility is confirmed by the MACD and Stochastic indicators. MАСD histogram moved to negative zone, and Stochastic lines are in overbought zone.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the consolidation of the price under the level of 1.3515. Profit should be taken at the level of 1.3460. Short-term long trades can be opened at the level of 1.3535 with targets at 1.3560.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: technical analysis

Current trend

Last month the pair reached local highs, which was caused by sharp decline in the USD; however, at the moment the pair is trading in the sideways channel near the level of 0.8300. The four-hour chart shows that the pattern pendant has been formed and breakdown of this pattern will allow the price to go up to the level of 0.8400 or higher. Nevertheless, technical indicators show that sideways trend will continue.

Support and resistance

The nearest support level is 0.8270, which coincides with the level of 23.6% Fibonacci. Next support levels are 0.8250, 08200 and 0.8150. Resistance levels:08.335, 0.8390 and 08435.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open short positions below the level of 0.8270 with the target in the range of 0.8200-0.8150. Long positions are advisable above the level of 0.8335.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CAD: technical analysis

Current trend

Daily chart demonstrates downward channel, in which the pair has been traded since the beginning of the summer. Since the end of last month quotes has been rising towards the upper limit of the channel as part of downward correction. The pair is experiencing pressure from the level of 50.0% (1.0370), which is located near the upper moving average line of “Bollinger bands” indicator. MACD indicator suggests that it is still early to close long positions: the signal line is outside histogram in the negative zone. Therefore, based on the technical indicators we can conclude that ascending movement will continue up to local highs of 1.0446. This level can become a pivot points from which the price will go down.

Support and resistance

Resistance is at the levels of correction 1.0370 and 1.0414. The pair is supported by the levels of 1.0325 and 1.0270.

Trading tips

In case of breakdown of the level of 1.0370, it makes sense to buy and place orders “Take Profit” at the level of 1.0446. As an alternative scenario we can consider the decline to the line 1.0270.



Kamil Avad
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.