LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAU/USD

XAU/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen line from below under the cloud, forming Golden Cross pattern. However upward impetus wasn’t enough and the price is still under Tenkan-sen line (1328.988). Though Kijun-sen line (1322.37) keeps the pair from falling. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from below, current Kumo is descending.



XAU/USD, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, and they have been horizontal since the beginning of the week. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud has reversed from ascending to descending. This Monday the price has entered the cloud and been flat ever since. Lower border of the cloud is a support level at 1387.39, Tenkan-sen line remains resistance level at 1333.19.



Key levels

Support levels: 1322.37, 1387.39.
Resistance levels: 1328.988, 1333.19.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart further movement of the price will be determined by the breakdown of one of the levels: Tenkan-sen or Kijun-sen. On the daily chart the price has entered the cloud, we suggest to avoid new long-term positions.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: Euro will decline

Current trend

Following the US Fed’s statement that asset purchase program would not be reduced, the pair once again hit the highs of 1.3565. However, uptrend was short-lived and European currency returned to support level of 1.3460. It is likely that today the pair will trade in the narrow channel, moving slowly. Next week the US data on a number of jobs excluding agricultural sector will become known, which can change movement direction in the pair.
Technical analysis shows that a clear buy signal is given only by Stochastic indicator, which is in the oversold zone. Other indicators do not give any signals.

Support and resistance

Support level of 1.3460 is the key level for the “bears”. Breakdown of this level will open the way to 1.3440, 1.3400 and 1.3355. Resistance levels are 1.3500, 13530 and 1.3565.

Trading tips

The most feasible scenario is the decline in the pair; however prior to this moment, the “bears” will need to break down the level of 1.3460, which will require additional momentum. It is recommended to sell after successful breakdown of this level and consolidation below it.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: the Pound is weakening

Current trend

At the end of last week the British currency has significantly grown against the USD. Even negative data on British GDP could not slacken upward movement. The rise was triggered by high demand for the Pound among investors and weakening of the USD due to dampened expectations of growth in the US GDP.
This week uptrend continues and the pair has reached the local highs of 1.6180. The data on mortgage and consumer lending in UK is scheduled for the release today. In addition, it is worth paying attention to business activity index in the manufacturing sector of Chicago region.

Support and resistance /b]

Traditionally, at the end of the tourist season the Pound strengthens along with the economic growth. Later uptrend is expected to shift to downtrend. Although rapid rise is unlikely, due to positive statistics the pair may reach the level of 1.6300.
Support levels: 1.6050, 1.6000 and 1.5880.
Resistance levels: 1.6150 and 1.6300.

[b]Trading tips

In the current situation it is advisable to place short positions near 1.6000-1.5880. Pending sell orders can be placed from the level of 1.6300 with the target of 1.6000.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CHF: investors are worried

Current trend

Last Friday the pair has broken through the support level at 0.9080, encouraging “bearish” sentiments. As for the fundamental data, Flash Manufacturing PMI will be published today. Besides, US government is under the threat of default. Politics can’t find an understanding regarding the national debt, and investors are getting nervous: US indices futures have opened the week with almost 1% of the decrease. News from Zurich is also worrisome: Swiss banks are to be in the least beneficial category of the American program of tax regulation.
According to the price chart the pair is in the downward trend. Bollinger Bands indicator confirms the descending movement, its middle MA has fallen down to the level of 0.9085. MACD histogram has crossed the signal line from above, forming a signal to sell. We expect the price to go down to the level of 0.9029, and on the 1st of October with the beginning of the new financial year the trend will reverse.

Support and resistance /b]

Main support levels are 0.9085 and 0.9039. New financial year and positive statistics from USA are the only factors which can help the pair to break down the resistance at the levels of 0.9065 and 0.9045.

[b]Trading tips

It is recommended to open short positions at current price with Take Profits at 0.9065. Targets for the long positions and for the pending orders to buy are at the level of 0.9065.



Andrey Chupov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 01-04.10.2013

Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site http://www.liteforex.com/?uid=434248008

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CAD: The pair will continue sideways trend

Current trend

Throughout last week the pair traded in the range of 1.0270-1.0325. Several times the “bulls” unsuccessfully tried to break down the upper limit of the channel. This week USD/CAD opened with the upward gap; however later it experienced correction and returned to the upper limit of the channel. Important Canadian news is not scheduled for the release this week; however on Friday we expect fundamental news from American labour market about the number of jobs outside agricultural sector and unemployment rate for September.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level is 1.0330, which coincides with the level of 38.2% Fibonacci and prevents the rise in the pair. Next resistance levels are 1.0350, 1.0370 and 1.0400. Support levels are 1.0275, 1.0245 and 1.0200.

Trading tips

It is likely that the pair will continue to move in the sideways channel, therefore it makes sense to place pending orders buy limit and sell limit at the boundary of the channel. In case of breakdown of the lower boundary “sell limit” can be placed at the level of 1.0200.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: Congress does not rush to help the USD

Current trend

Today the pair has finally broken down resistance level of 1.3567, but has not consolidated above this level yet. During European trading session the following EU data was released: unemployment rate in Germany rose by 0.1%, business activity index in Eurozone was below the forecast, amounting to 51.1 points. Despite this fact the pair has rolled back from the level of 1.3567 and is still testing this level. Later, at the opening of the American session this level can be broken down. Such development is based on the situation around the US public debt. Congressmen could not agree on the issue of the debt ceiling. In addition, the USD will be under pressure from the cut in costs in construction sector and the decline of ISM manufacturing. Therefore, the pair has all chances to consolidate above the level of 1.3567. Technical indicators show that the pair has growth potential to go up to the level of 1.3709 and starting from this level sale can commence.

Support and resistance
If the pair consolidates above the level of 1.3567, next resistance level will be the level of 1.3658, which is located near the upper moving average of Bollinger bands indicator. The pair is still supported by the level of 23.6% Fibonacci (1.3459).

Trading tips

As a trading strategy I would recommend to buy from the current price level with the target of 1.3713. Stop-loss can be placed at the level of 1.3459.



Kamil Avad
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: general analysis

Current trend

At yesterday’s trading session on 1 October crude oil Brent rate fell amid temporary suspension of Government activities. Congressmen did not come to agreement about the new budget. This fact caused temporary suspension of work of government organization, which caused decline in the rate of Brent to the level of 106.78.
In addition Brent is under pressure from Chinese news. Business activity index PMI in the manufacturing sector fell by 1 point up to the level of 50.2 points.
However, by the end of the trading day Brent managed to regain losses of the day and rose up to the level of 108.00. It seems that the recovery was triggered by the liquidation of short positions.
Today investors will be interested in publication of the data on oil and oil products reserves from the US EIA.
Experts expect that oil reserves will increase by 2.5 million barrels, while gasoline inventories will fall by 0.7 million barrels. If experts’ predictions are correct, Brent rate can decline.

Support and resistance /b]

Support level: 0.8215.
Support levels: 107.40, 106.60 and 105.80.
Resistance levels: 108.60, 109.00 and 109.60.

[b]Trading tips

If the forecast for the increase of oil inventories is confirmed, it makes sense to open short positions with the target of 106.60.
In case of development of the ascending trend, it is recommended to open long positions with the target of 108.60.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar is regaining losses

Current trend

Activities of the US government organizations have been partially suspended due to disagreement between Democrats and Republicans on budget issue. However, market quickly recovered from the negative effect of this news and on Monday the US stock market closed in the “green” zone. There is not going to be a lot of news today; however investors will wait for the data on number of mortgage lending requests and on changes in a number of jobs in the US private sector.
Technical analysis shows that on the four-hour chart a strong buy signal is being formed. The line Tenkan-sen of Ichimoku indicator has crossed the line Kijun-sen from top to bottom, which is a buy signal. The price is under the Ichimoku cloud, indicating strong support at the level of 0.8281. MACD indicator also demonstrates strong buy signal; histogram is crossing the zero line from bottom to top. It is expected that the pair will get a strong growth momentum from support level of 0.8215 and will go up to resistance level of 0.8281. The speech by a chairman of the US Fed Ben Bernanke, will clarify, whether the level of 0.8296, which is the second line of Ichimoku cloud, can become a resistance level. Movement direction of the currency pair will be determined by the news on American economy.

Support and resistance /b]

Support level: 0.8215.
Resistance levels: 0.8281, 0.8296 and 0.8320.
Minor correction can take place from the level of 0.8296, after which the price will resume movement up to 0.8320.

[b]Trading tips

I recommend to open long positions from the current level of price with profit taking at the level of 0.8296.



Andrey Chupov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: Correction to the level of 1.6100 is expected

Current trend

On Wednesday the British currency continued to go up, almost returning to the local highs of 1.6260. Ambiguous situation in the US economy continues to put pressure on the USD. The US government is on unpaid leave, while White House cannot agree with Congress about raising the limit of the public debt. In such conditions even weak British statistics was able slightly to slow down the rise in the pair. Business activity index in construction sector fell to the level of 58.9 points in September. Note, that despite complex situation in the American economy, Fed members do not rule out a chance of gradual reduction of volume of bond redemption.

Today, PMI index in the service sector of Great Britain will become known. According to experts this index will fall by 0.1%. In addition attention shall be also paid to statistics of the American labour market: number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for September will be released today. Tomorrow investors will wait for the reporting of Nonfarm Payrolls. If the data is positive, demand for the USD may increase.

Support and resistance /b]

At the moment the pair is trading in the middle of the ascending channel, reaching support level of 1.6200. Growth in the pair has slowed down and investors are waiting for some actions from American government. Purchasing volume of the British currency is slowly declining, while negative macro-economic news has significant impact on the rate of the pair. In the near future we expect that the pair will rise to the key resistance level of 1.6300, which coincides with the upper limit of the ascending channel and the level of 100% Fibonacci. The pair will not go above the level of 1.6300, which is explained by poor UK statistics, overbought of the Pound and low demand for the British currency. In the medium-term the price may reverse and slowly go down to the level of 1.5880.

MACD indicator confirms a chance of downtrend. On the four-hour chart there is a serious divergence; histogram is under the signal line and is directed downward, which is a strong sell signal.

Support levels: 1.6150, 1.6050, 1.6000 and 1.5880.
Resistance levels: 1.6260 and 1.6300.

[b]Trading tips

In the current situation it is advisable to place short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.6000 (1.5880). It is also recommended to place pending sell orders from the level of 1.6300 with profit taking at the level of 1.6000.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies