LiteForex Market Analytics

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Fri Sep 13, 2013 8:09 am

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD

AUD/USD, H4
На четырёхчасовом графике линия Tenkan-sen находится выше Kijun-sen. После продолжительного роста цена откатилась ниже уровня Kijun-sen, который становится сопротивлением (0.9227). Линия Chinkou Span приближается к графику цены сверху, текущее облако ― восходящее. Ближайшее препятствие на пути цены вниз ― верхняя граница облака (0.9134-0.9154).

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AUD/USD, D1
On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line. After long growth the price has consolidated under Kijun-sen line which becomes a resistance level at 0.9227. Chinkou Span is approaching the price chart from above; current cloud is ascending. The next obstacle for the price on its way down will be upper border of the cloud (0.9134-0.9154).

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Key levels
Support levels: 0.9134-0.9154, 0.9163.
Resistance levels: 0.9227, 0.9319.

Trading tips
On the four-hour chart we can see a development of trend reversal. Short positions can be opened after confirmation signal from Chinkou Span line. On the daily chart the price is still within the cloud; it is not advised to open new long-term trades. Pending sell orders can be placed at the lower border of the cloud, pending buy orders ― at the upper one.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Mon Sep 16, 2013 11:00 am

Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY

Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site http://www.liteforex.com/?uid=434248008

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Tue Sep 17, 2013 9:58 am

GBP/USD: correction will follow the growth

1. Current trend of GBP/USD

After sharp upward leap at the opening trading session the pair calmed down and consolidated at the level of 1.5970. By Monday night the British currency started to decline against the USD and completed trading day at the level of 1.5920. The decline was caused by positive US economic data. Industrial production remained at the previous level of 0.4% in August, while capacity utilization increased up to 77.8%.
Attention today shall be paid to the British macro-economic statistics: consumer price index, retail price index and producer price index. American statistics can show the rise in real wages and stability in the housing market index.

2. Important levels: support and resistance

Latest US statistics shows gradual economic recovery in the country. It is likely that in the nearest future the USD will start to strengthen. The rise in the USD and overbought in the Pound can slow down the rise in the pair. In the medium-term the rise can shift to the decline to support level of 1.5750.

3. Best exit/entry points

In the current situation it is advisable to place pending sell orders from the level of 1.6000 with profit taking at the level of 1.5800 (1.5750).

4. Supporting facts

On the daily chart MACD histogram is in the positive zone below the signal line and is directed downward, indicating the beginning of descending wave.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:16 am

Brent: Review

1. Current trend

Rate of the crude oil Brent is still decreasing in anticipation of FOMC meeting, which will determine key interest rate. This morning Brent has dropped down to the level of 109.66 thanks to the resolution of Syrian conflict. Foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry have come to understanding of the diplomatic solution and chemical weapon disposal. American government rejects military intervention and chemical weapon must be exported from Syria or disposed until the middle of the next year.

2. Levels of support and resistance

Support levels: 108.80, 107.90.
Resistance levels: 111.00, 110.35, 109.66.

3. Trading tips
If today's fundamental data from US is positive, the rate of Brent will go up. I would recomend to enter the market with pending buy orders at the level of 109.80 with stop-losses at the next resistance level (110.35). Instrument won't be very volatile before FOMC meeting, so I suggest small lot sizes or even to stay of trades.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Wed Sep 18, 2013 8:04 am

AUD/USD: инвесторы в ожидании результатов заседания FOMC

1. Current trend

The minutes of the September’s meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was published recently, has puzzled market participants. RBA does not deny that in the near future another lowering of the interest rate can take place; however no one clearly expressed that the lowering is inevitable. This fact has not caused strong fluctuation in the market; however the Australian dollar has slightly declined in price against its American counterpart. Economic situation in the country is not too good, therefore the decline in the pair may continue.
Investors’ attention today is focused on the outcome of two-day meeting of FOMC, which will steer movement direction of the American currency.

2. Levels of support and resistance

At the moment the pair is trading near the level of 0.9350. The nearest resistance levels are 0.9375 and 0.9400. If the latter is broken down, the “bulls” can go up to 0.9320, 0.9300 and 0.9275.

3. Trading tips

Further movement in the pair will be determined by today’s FOMC meeting. Buy orders shall be placed after the breakdown of the level of 0.9400, sell orders are recommended below the level of 0.9275.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Wed Sep 18, 2013 8:16 am

“Gazprom”: general analysis

The most important news for today is decision on QE3 program and its curtailment in USA. The exact numbers will be announced at the end of the day, but we expect that FRS will reduce financial support by 5 billion dollars. The inflation is under control in USA, so Fed Reserve can freely manipulate the volumes of the quantitive easing program.
According to experts, Russian bond market is appealing to the foreign investors and new calculation system can attract massive capitals.
“Gazprom” bonds have risen by 0.96% since the beginning of the trading session. On the daily chart we can see that the price has reached a resistance level at 148.00 and bounced down. It may be a first sign of the trend reversal. Long positions can be opened after consolidation of the price above the level of 148.00. Stop Loss orders can be placed at 147.85 and take-profits at 149.85.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:08 am

EUR/USD: general analysis

1. Current trend

Yesterday the pair failed to leave the channel 1.3330-1.3370 despite the increased volumes of the net purchases of long-term US securities and the rise in the purchases of US securities by foreigners. Both indicators significantly rose compared to previous values, which suggest that interest to American economy among investors is increasing. Attention today shall be paid to the data on number of permits to construct and construction of new houses. According to analysts, both indices will increase. Later, the US Fed decision on the discount rate will become known, which is likely to remain unchanged. The most significant influence of the UDS rate will be provided by press conference of the Federal Reserve System, where future monetary policy will be determined.
Technical analysis shows that on the four-hour chart the pair is trading within the ascending channel; Triangle pattern is being formed, which supports “Bullish” trend. If its upper line is broken down, the pair may grow up to 1.3451. Additional support to Euro will be provided by tomorrow’s data on a number of applications for unemployment benefits

2. Levels of support and resistance

The nearest resistance is at the level of 1.3387. If this level is broken down, the price can go up to the August highs of 1.3451. Support is at the level of 1.3334 and near which is located the average line of “Bollinger bands” indicator.

3. Trading tips

As a trading strategy I would recommend to open long positions at the current price and place protective stop-orders near 1.3334. If resistance level of 1.3387 is broken down and if the price consolidates above this level, it will make sense to move stop-order in the black.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Thu Sep 19, 2013 6:32 am

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of NZD/USD

NZD/USD, H4
On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen and they are both directed upwards. Chinkou Span is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The price has overcome the levels of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. The next obstacle for the price on its way up will be May maximum of the Chinkou Span line at 0.8456. The nearest support level is still Tenkan-Sen line (0.8313).

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NZD/USD, D1
On the daily chart we can see almost the same situation. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line and they are both directed steeply upwards. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The pair has been rising since the beginning of the month almost without pullbacks. The next target for the Bulls is one of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line at 0.8533. The nearest support level is still Tenkan-Sen line (0.8191).

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Key levels
Support levels: 0.8313, 0.8191.
Resistance levels: 0.8456, 0.8533.

Trading tips
Both charts indicate the continuation of the uprising movement. Targets for the new long positions will be at the levels of 0.8456 and 0.8533.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Thu Sep 19, 2013 7:06 am

GBP/USD: QE3 program will not be cut back

1. Current trend
Despite the forecasts, the US Fed leaders led by Ben Bernanke decided to leave volume of program to purchase state bonds at the previous level. As a result the pair GBP/USD hit several strong resistance levels on its way and sharply soared up to the level of 1.6160. However today, following the release of poor data on British retail sales the pair went down. Now the British currency traded at the level of 1.6070 against the USD. Attention shall be paid to the US labour market statistics, which can cause further weakening of the USD.


2. Important levels: support and resistance
The Pound has reached the nine-month highs and any negative data from UK will cause the decline, as the currency is significantly overbought. Technical analysis show that the pair reached the upper limit of the ascending channel and we can expect that now it will go down to support level of 1.5880 (lower limit of the channel) In the long-term the pair will continue to grow if the USD will not receive strong support.

3. Best entry/exit points
Today it is advisable to place short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.5880. Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.5880 with the target of 1.6100.

4. Technical indicators
On the four-hour chart MACD histogram is in the positive zone below the signal line and is directed upward, indicating the beginning of downward correction.
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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Fri Sep 20, 2013 7:42 am

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The main reason for the rise of Euro is the decision of the US Fed not to change the volume of quantitative easing, keeping it at the level of 85 billion USD per month. According to the FRS chairman, growth rate of the US economy can slow down this year; therefore it is very risky to reduce QE3. Unemployment claims has increased by 15 000 last week, it is an additional signal of decline of the US business activity.
Another indication of the decline of economic growth rate is the drop in yields of the 10-year bonds. Next FOMC meeting will be held in November and investors hope that there will be adopted final decision on QE3 program. On the other hand, the rise of the USD and weakening of Euro can be caused by the resolution on Syria, which will be made next week.

Levels of support and resistance

The Unified European currency continues trading in the ascending channel. The chart H4 shows that the pair EUR/USD had reached its upper border at the level of 1.3565, and after that corrected to the level of 1.3532.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open long positions from the level of 1.3570 with profit taking at the level of 1.3685 and stop-orders at 1.3545.

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