LiteForex Market Analytics

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Thu Aug 22, 2013 8:46 am

EUR/USD: the pair may continue to decline

1. Current trend of EUR/USD

On Wednesday the currency pair EUR/USD fell to the level of 1.3335. The rise in the American dollar was caused by publication of the minutes of July’s meeting of the US Fed Open Markets Committee. According to the minutes, majority of FOMC members agreed that phasedown of the quantitative easing program can be launched before the end of this year; however no specific dates have been indicated.

2. Important levels: support and resistance

At the moment the pair continues to decline, tending to the level of 1.3305. This level seems the key one, as it practically coincides with the moving average line of “Bollinger bands” indicator, with the level of 61.8% Fibonacci and also with the boundary of the ascending channel. In case of breakdown of this level, the price will drop to the level of 1.3200, which coincides with the lower line of “Bollinger bands” and the level of 50.0* Fibonacci. Otherwise, the price can return to the level of 1.3400. Attention shall be drawn to US Fed conference in Jackson Hole that starts today and which will be one of the fundamental events. Decisions made at this Forum can have dramatic impact on the movement in the pair. In the current situation it is advisable to place short positions if the price consolidates below the level of 1.3305. Profit taking is recommended at the level of 1.3200. Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3360.

3. Technical indicators

Technical indicators on the daily chart confirm possibility of downward movement. Bollinger bands are directed upward; however, the price chart tends to the moving average, which is at the level of 1.3305. MACD histogram is in the overbought zone, its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines are crossing and directed downward, giving a sell signal.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Thu Aug 22, 2013 9:26 am

USD/CHF: chance of growth

1. Fundamental data

The pair has steadily grown throughout yesterday’s trading session. It seems that Franc has tested the bottom and now, based on existing grounds it will lay a course for the rise. Minutes of the FOMC indicated that the US Fed has not yet made final decision on the dates for phasing down economic stimulus program. Only a few members of the Committee said that it would be possible to reduce the volume of bond purchase in the near future. Majority stated that there should not be any rush in regards to this issue. However, Fed officials noted that following the launch of a new stimulus program, unemployment rate has reduced significantly and reached the level of 7.4% in July.
Market participants are confident that considering current pace of economic recovery in America volumes of stimulus programs will be gradually reduced. Given the fact that efficiency of the program is decreasing, investors started to buy the USD, which became a driver for the rise in the pair.

2. Important levels: support and resistance

At the moment the pair consolidates near resistance level of 0.9250. Next obstacle on the “bulls’ way will be the level of 0.9280. The target for growth is the level of 0.9390. Support levels are 0.9200 and 0.9150.

3. Technical indicators

Given the current trend it is advisable to place buy orders today. It is recommended to enter the market after the breakdown of the resistance level. Attention shall be focused on the data on US labour market. This information can either heat up or dent investors’ interest to the American currency.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Thu Aug 22, 2013 9:31 am

AUD/USD: analysis and forecast

1. Current trend of AUD/USD

This Wednesday the pair AUD/USD has hit three-week lows at 0.8930 reacting to the FOMC Meeting Minutes release. The majority of the Comittee shared the opinion that QE program can be curtailed at the end of the year. Thursday morning the pair has won back its positions due to positive statistics from Heavenly Empire. China manufacturing index has overcome the level of 50 points first time for 4 months, showing the revival of the industry.

2. Important levels: support and resistance

The price is descending now. A small rise to 0.9050 is possible, but we expect the price to go down to support level at 0.8860, which coincide with lower line of Bollinger Bands. Reversal of the trend can happen at this level. Keeping in mind current situation, I would recommend to open long positions at current price with Take Profit orders at 0.8860. Sell limit orders can be placed at 0.9050.

3. Technical indicators

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, price chart is within the lower band. MACD histogram is in oversold zone, it can soon cross signal line, forming a signal to buy. Stochastic lines are in overbought zone and give us the same signal.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Fri Aug 23, 2013 7:41 am

NZD/USD: the fall will continue

1. Current trend of NZD/USD

This week the NZD/USD has hit three-week lows at 0.7800. The fall was determined by the RBNZ decision. National banks are to limit mortgage lending in order to reduce price bubble in real estate. Under additional pressure from FOMC Meeting Minutes Kiwi went further down. FRS announced the start of the curtailment of the QE program at the end of the year. The pair still has a potential to downward movement due to experts’ confidence that the volumes of the quantitive easing program will be reduced in September.

2. Important levels: support and resistance

The pair is trading around support level of 0.7800, trying to break through it. Next week we expect fall down to level of 0.7700 and a reverse of the trend from this point. I would recommend to open short trades with targets at 0.7700.

3. Technical indicators

On the daily chart technical indicators confirm the possibility of price fall. Bollinger Bands has turned down, the price chart is moving along the lower line of the indicator. MACD histogram is in oversold zone, giving a signal to buy. Stochastic lines are also in the oversold zone, confirming buy signal.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Fri Aug 23, 2013 7:47 am

USD/CAD: technical analysis

1. Current trend

Look at the daily chart of the currency pair USD/CAD. The pair has been in the large ascending channel with the long-term corrections. The pair had repeatedly tried to break down the lower limit of the channel, but did not succeed. After that the pair rebounded sharply and is now trading at the level of 1.0550. Similar leap took place about two months ago. This time the pair reached the upper limit, but failed to break it down and started to decline. Therefore, we cannot rule out repetition of the old scenario.
MACD indicator shows continuation of uptrend. Histogram is in the positive zone, volumes continue to increase. The signal line is in the negative zone but directed upward and will soon go beyond it. All three moving average lines indicate further growth. Stochastic is in the overbought zone. Its lines are coming closer to each other and if they intersect, we will get a signal of correction.

2. Levels of support and resistance

The nearest support levels are 1.0560 and 1.0580; the key level for the “bulls” is 1.0608. Resistance lines are 1.0530 and 1.0490. The main target of the “bulls” is to go back to the level of 1.0450.

3. Trading tips

Many analysts believe that the pair is too overbought and correction will take place soon. However, it is also likely that the pair will test the local highs, therefore I would recommend to place limit sell orders at the level of 1.0600.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Fri Aug 23, 2013 8:35 am

GBP/USD: general analysis

1. Current trend

At the opening of European trading session GBP/USD rate has slightly rose and reached the lower boundary of the ascending channel. Today the data on a number of approvals for mortgage lending and GDP in UK will become known. According to experts forecast gross domestic product will retain the increase of 0.6%, number of approved mortgage lending will increase by 1.5 thousand. These facts can add momentum to the pair and the price can go up.
At the opening of the American session attention shall be paid to a number of sales of new houses in the USA, which can decrease by 10 thousand. This fact can trigger the rise in the pair.

2. Levels of support and resistance

The pair is supported by the lower boundary of the channel, close to which is located the red line MA of the Envelopes (1.5560). Resistance levels are the local highs of 1.5651 and 1.5671.

3. Trading tips
Amid expectations of the news from UK and US I would recommend to open long positions at the current price with the target of 1.5651. If this level is broken down, I would recommend to move stop-loss to the loss-free zone.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Mon Aug 26, 2013 8:03 am

Brent: Review

1. Current trend

Rate of crude oil Brent has almost reached the level of $111.20 per barrel, which is the highest point for the 5 months — last time the instrument had reached this point on the 2nd of April 2013.
Last Friday Brent went up due to the unstable situation in the Middle East. Israel air force has bombarded Beirut territory in retaliation for the attack from Lebanon. Investors are concerned about the supply disruptions.
The situation is complicated with UN investigation on chemical weapons attack in Syria. Besides, US DOD has announced the possibility of intervention in Syria civil war.
Middle East situation will determine the movement of the instrument.


2. Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 111.30, 111.80, 113.40.
Support levels: 110.70, 109.80, 109.00.


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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Mon Aug 26, 2013 8:22 am

GPB/USD: further fall is expected
1. Current trend

UK GDP data released on Friday were better than expected. Quarter index has risen up to 0.7% against predicted 0.6%, and annual index has risen up to 1.5% against 1.4%. Favorable data on export and manufacturing sector have also been published last week. All those factors pushed the pair up, it overcame the level of 1.5600, and reached the point of 1.5636, but several hours later bounced back to the level of 1.5539. The pair was saved from the further fall by the negative macroeconomic statistics from US.
Regardless the support from fundamental data Pound couldn’t consolidate above the level of 1.5700, so we expect the price to stay within a narrow channel. Correction down to 1.5500 is also possible.

2. Support and resistance
The closest resistance levels are 1.5580, 1560 and 1.5650. The main goal for the Bulls is to return to the level of 1.5700. Bears hope to overcome the level of 1.5530, which coincide with 23.6% of Fibonacci lines. If the price breaks through the level, we’re going to witness new lows.

3. Trading tips
I would recommend to sell below the level of 1.5530. Pending orders to buy can be placed at 1.5650 and 1.5750.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Mon Aug 26, 2013 11:07 am

Weekly analytical review of the financial market of 26.08.2013

Weekly analytical review and forecast of Forex market. Financial instruments EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY.

Other analytical reviews are available at LiteForex site: http://www.liteforex.com/trading/tools/analytics/

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Tue Aug 27, 2013 7:20 am

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD

AUD/USD, H4

On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line and they are both directed steeply downwards. Chinkou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. Despite Golden Cross formation the pair went down, breaking through levels of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. The nearest resistance level is the blue line at 0.9000. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.8912.

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AUD/USD, D1

Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen have merged and have been horizontal since last week. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current Kumo is still descending. The nearest resistance level is merged Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen line at 0.9082. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.8903.

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Key levels

Support levels: 0.8912, 0.8903.
Resistance levels: 0.9082, 0.9000.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart we can see a new development of the downward trend. Targets for the short trades are at the 0.8912 level. The chart of the higher timeframe confirms a new wave of the Bears’ movement.

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