LiteForex Market Analytics

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Fri Sep 20, 2013 9:45 am

XAU/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

Recent FOMC decision to keep interest rate at the same level as well as the volumes of QE program has given a major impetus to commodity market. Fed Reserve has also lowered the numbers of estimated economic growth, ensuring investors that stimulating monetary policy will go on.
Today the price of the instrument has consolidated around the level of 23.6% of Fibonacci lines (1355.00). Further movement of the price will be determined by the fundamental data. However, China, the main consumer of the physical gold, has holidays and volumes of trading are decreasing.

Support and resistance

Important resistance level is the maximum of 11th of September (1368.00). If the price overcomes this level, the next obstacle for the Bulls will be psychological limit of 1400.00. The next target for the buy orders will be at 1415.50.
The pair is supported by the correction level of 23.6% of Fibonacci lines (1355.00). The next support level is 100-day MA at 1348.00. After breakdown of this level Bears will try to reach the level of 55-day MA (1338.00).

Trading tips

Without main consumer of the real gold the rise of the instrument is highly unlikely. Short positions with targets at support levels would be a wise choice.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Mon Sep 23, 2013 4:15 am

XAG/USD: технический анализ
Текущая динамика

В первой половине прошлой недели серебро торговалось в узком диапазоне, но после резкого скачка в среду цена на металл выросла до уровня 23.40. К концу недели пара XAG/USD вновь опустилась и сейчас торгуется в районе 21.75. Мощной поддержкой является уровень 21.55, совпадающий с уровнем Фибоначчи 61,8%. «Медведи» несколько раз пытались преодолеть этот уровень, но их попытки не увенчались успехом.
Стохастик находится в зоне перепроданности и даёт сигнал на покупку. Сигнальная линия MACD находится в положительной зоне, но направлена вниз. Если она пересечет нулевую линию, мы получим сигнал на продажу.


Уровни поддержки и сопротивления
Линиями сопротивления на данный момент являются 22.00, 22.25, 22.60 и 22.90. Поддержкой выступают уровни 21.50 , 21.20 и 21.00.

Торговые рекомендации
На данном этапе «медведям» вряд ли удастся преодолеть уровень 21.50, на этом уровне стоит выставить лимитные ордера на покупку. Лимитные ордера на продажу можно выставлять на уровнях 22.90 и 23.40.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Mon Sep 23, 2013 6:55 am

GBP/USD: Dollar will slowly strengthen

Current trend
At the end of last week the British currency gradually lost its positions against the USD. Weak macro-economic British statistics and decreasing demand for the overbought Pound was dragging the currency down. New trading week started with the growth due to negative data on European currency. Investors rushed to sell Euro and buy the British currency, so the pair GBP/USD rose up to the level of 1.6050.
Today British economic calendar is uneventful with the exception of the speech of the member of the Monetary Policy Committee Ben Broadbent at the end of the trading day. During the American session US PMI manufacturing will become known, which is expected to be positive.
Market volatility is not expected to be high because of the lack of fundamental news. In the medium-term the pair will continue to decline amid strengthening of the American dollar. The data on the US GDP and US labour market is scheduled for the release this week; experts believe that the data will be positive.


Support and resistance
Technical analysis shows that the pair GBP/USD continues to move in the ascending channel. At the moment the Pound consolidates above the moving average line (1.6000), which is a support level. If this level is broken down, the pair will continue to decline to the lower limit of the channel 1.5880. After downward correction we can expect a new ascending wave. In the medium-term the pair will grow up to the key resistance level of 1.6300, which have been the local highs since September 2011.
Indicators confirm downward correction in the pair. MACD histogram on the four-hour chart is below the signal line and is directed downward, forming a strong sell signal.


Trading tips
In the current situation is it advisable to open short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.5880. Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.5880 with the target of 1.6100; in the medium-term it is recommended to take profit at the level of 1.6280.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Tue Sep 24, 2013 6:50 am

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD

AUD/USD, H4
Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen line from above, forming Dead Cross pattern. However downward impetus wasn’t strong enough and the price is still stuck between red line and blue one. Chinkou Span is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line at 0.9432. If the price continues its fall, the next support will be at the upper border of the cloud (0.9316).

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AUD/USD, D1
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen and they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. Last week the pair had broken through the upper border of the cloud and consolidated above it. The next target for the Bears is 0.9520, the closest support level is Tenkan-sen line at 0.9375.

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Key levels
Support levels: 0.9316, 0.9375.
Resistance levels: 0.9432, 0.9520.

Trading tips
he signal of the trend reversal on the four-hour chart will be the cross between Chinkou Span line and the price chart. However daily chart indicates the development of the uprising trend. The target for the long-term buy orders is 0.9520.
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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Tue Sep 24, 2013 7:28 am

USD/CAD: news from the New World will cause another wave of decline

Current trend
Since last Friday the pair has been trading near the upper limit of the descending channel, preparing to decline further down. The development of a new wave in the “bearish” movement will be supported by macro-economic statistics from US and Canada. It is expected that retail sales in Canada will grow up to 0.6%, while consumer confidence index in the USA will drop.
If the pair breaks down resistance level of 1.0270, which is near the moving average line of “Bollinger bands” indicator, a sell signal will be formed. Quotes will go to the lower line of the indicator (1.0202) encountering resistance at the level of 1.0251 (local lows). The pair will not have sufficient momentum to continue further decline.


Support and resistance
Strong support level is the upper limit of the descending channel. Support levels are 1.0270 and 1.0251.

Trading tips
It is recommended to open short positions with the target of 1.0202. Stop-loss can be placed at the level of 1.0310.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Tue Sep 24, 2013 9:47 am

Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY

Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site http://www.liteforex.com/?uid=434248008

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Wed Sep 25, 2013 9:02 am

NZD/USD: the pair has switched to the decline

Current trend

This week, quotes of the pair are declining. American dollar is regaining losses, caused by US Fed decision to extend validity of the quantitative easing program. Today the price has reached the weekly highs at the level of 0.8218. Additional pressure on the NZD was caused by the negative data on the rise in trade balance deficit in New Zealand, which has reached 1191 million NZD in August.

Support and resistance

In the near future the pair is likely to fall to 0.8170 (61.8% Fibonacci). If this level is broken down, the decline may continue up to the levels of 0.8130, 0.8075, 0.8030 and 0.7970 (level 50% Fibonacci). Upward correction can reach the level of 0.8280.
Technical indicators confirm a chance of downward movement in price. Bollinger bands are directed downward; the price chart has recently broken down the bottom line of the indicator, suggesting minor ascending correction up to 0.8280. MACD histogram has moved to the oversold zone and formed a sell signal. Stochastic lines are entering oversold zone as well, forming a similar signal.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions at the current price with profit taking near 0.8075. Short-term long positions can be opened from the level of 0.8250 with profit taking at the level of 0.8280.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Wed Sep 25, 2013 9:18 am

GBP/USD: USD is heading for strengthening

Current trend

On Tuesday the pair GBP/USD declined due to the rise in the USD. American statistics of construction sector was positive and members of Open Market Committee indicate that the cut in the volume of QE3 will take place in the near future. Tomorrow the data on the US GDP will become known; experts predict the rise in index by 0.1-0.2%, which will give additional support to the USD.
British statistics disappointed investors, showing weak economic performance: number of approved mortgage applications was below the forecast. British GDP, which will be known tomorrow, is likely to remain unchanged.
Today, retail sales index as per estimate by Confederation of British Industry will be released. Experts believe that the index will drop up to the level of 24 points. It is worth paying attention to the US economic statistics in the construction sector and changes in oil inventories.

Support and resistance /b]

The pair fell below support level of 1.6000 and consolidated there. Next target is the limit of the ascending channel (1.5880). If this level is broken down, the price will go to the highs of June at the level of 1.5750; this movement can be considered as trend reversal. Otherwise, the pair can push off from the lower limit of the channel 1.5880 and continue to rise to 1.6300.
Indicators confirm continuation of decline. On the four-hour chart MACD histogram is moving to the negative zone, it is below the signal line and is giving a strong sell signal. Indicator Ichimoku Kinko Hyo on the four-hour chart has formed “Dead cross”, also suggesting the decline in future.

[b]Trading tips


In the current situation it is recommended to place short positions with profit taking near 1.5880-1.5750. Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1.5880 with protective orders at the level of 1.5720 and a target of 1.6300.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Thu Sep 26, 2013 9:25 am

EUR/USD: Jacob Lew predicts bankruptcy of the U.S.

Current trend

Yesterday, the pair again failed to break down the level of 1.3458. However, it is too early to speak about upward correction or trend reversal. The data on American GDP and number of applications for unemployment benefits will be released today. It is expected that GDP will amount to 0.2%, while number of applications for unemployment benefits will increase by 10 thousand. These indices along with yesterday’s statement by Jacob Lew can trigger the rise in the pair to the winter’s highs of 1.3713. I would remind that yesterday the US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said in his speech about the threat of bankruptcy to the USA if the ceiling of the US public debt will not be legally increased.

Support and resistance
Technical analysis shows that the pair has all chances to rise to the upper limit of the channel, from where downward correction can develop. MACD indicator demonstrates that “bullish” movement will continue. Support level is 1.3458, resistance levels are 1.3568 and 1.3604.

Trading tips

As a trading strategy I recommend to open long positions with the target of 1.3713. Limit buy orders can be placed near resistance level of 1.3458 since it is not excluded that this level can be tested again.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Thu Sep 26, 2013 9:54 am

Brent: general analysis

Current trend

The rate of crude oil Brent has been falling since the beginning of the European session. Black Gold is under pressure of fundamental data. UN negotiates with Iran about uranium enrichment program, and the President of Iran intends to conclude an agreement with international organization. Reduction of tension between Iran and international community makes oil cheaper.
Another factor is US Energy Information Administration report on oil supplies last week. Oil reserves have reached the number of 2.64 million barrels, though it was expected to be 1 million barrels. Supplies increase, demand decreases and if this trend continues, the rate of the Brent may fall down to the level of $100 per barrel.

Levels of support and resistance

Support level is the lower border of an uprising channel at 107.74. Resistance level will be at 109.50.

Trading tips

Short positions should be opened after the breakdown of the lower border of the channel with stop-losses at 107.90 and targets at 104.25.

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