LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: Yellen’s appointment made the pair fall

Current trend
This week the pair has been trading within the range of 0.9483-0.9386. Today however the “aussi” experienced high volatility of the market and hit local highs at 0.9471. The rise was caused by the favourable releases of unemployment data in Australia. Inevitable decrease down to the level of 0.9387 followed the rise. The Dollar was strengthened due to the Janet Yellen’s appointment as a new Head of FRS of USA. Investors hope that new Head will at last cancel the quantitive easing programs. Meanwhile the Dollar is still under pressure of the US budget crisis, and Australian currency has all the chances to regain its positions.

Support and resistance
The pair is trading now around key level of 0.9430 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands indicator). If the price consolidates above this level the pair will go all the way up to the levels of 0.9470 (upper MA of Bollinger Bands) and 0.9515. Otherwise the fall down to the level of 0.9395 is probable.
Technical indicators give us controversial signals. MACD histogram is in overbought zone, its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines can soon cross and reverse upwards, giving a signal to buy.

Trading tips
Regarding the situation it is recommended to open long trades at 0.9440 with targets at 0.9515. Short positions can be placed at the level of 0.9420 with Take Profit orders around 0.9395.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: the Pound is under pressure

Current trend

Yesterday’s negative statistics on British trading balance and industrial output weakened the Pound. The decline in these indices can indicate that economic growth pace is slowing down. It is possible that economic growth has sputtered out and GDP has reached its peak, which will mean that GDP for Q3 will be below forecast. On the other hand, the USD has strengthened after the publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting.
Today the decision of the Bank of England on interest rate will become known. It is likely that the interest rate will be left at the previous level of 0.25%. Planned volumes of assets purchase will be also announced.

Support and resistance

At the moment the pair is trading near the level of 1.5940, which coincides with the level of 38.2 Fibonacci. The price is testing this level from both sides and this level prevents further decline in the pair. Next support levels will be 1.5900 and 1.5850. Resistance levels are 1.5970, 1.6000 and 1.6050.

Trading tips

It is likely that the pair GBP/USD will continue to decline. It makes sense to open short positions below the level of 1.5900.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Gold is still being traded in the sideways channel on the daily chart. If the issue of the US national debt is not resolved in the near future, the gold rate will go up to the level of 1354.00. US budget is a matter of politics and there is no doubt that the parties will be able to come to agreement on this issue. Democrats are preparing a bill granting Obama the right to raise national debt without approval of the Republicans. Meanwhile, the country is apprehensive of the “Black Thursday” on 17 October, as it can cause significant decline in the USD.
Rating agencies try to reassure financial markets. Chief Operation Officer of Moddy’s Michelle Madeline said that she estimates probability of defaults as extremely low.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level on the daily chart is the level of price near 1311.75. Support level is 1278.00.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open long positions above 1300.00 with the target of 1.340.00 and protective orders around 1295.00.



Dmitry Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: euro is growing

Current trend

US President Barack Obama did not meet the wishes of the Republicans, who suggested to raise the limit of the US national debt. It is expected that on 17 October deficit of the US budget will amount to $30 billion and the Treasury will have to declare default. Nevertheless, probability of default is estimated as low. It is very unlikely that the US Fed will start to phase out QE3 program due to shutdown of work of the US government, since the idle period will have a negative impact on the economic recovery.

Support and resistance /b]

Technical analysis confirms “bullish” sentiment among market participants. MACD histogram is in the overbought zone, dynamics of volume is not clear. “Bollinger bands” indicator shows further growth, its moving average line is directed upward.

Resistance levels: 1.3573 and 1.3618.
Support levels: 1.3384 and 1.3464.

[b]Trading tips

It is recommended to place long positions at the current price with profit taking at the level of 1.3573 and stop-loss at the level of 1.3464.



Andrey Chupov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: two steps before the collapse

Current trend
Last week the British currency traded in the sideways channel in the range of 1.6000-1.5920. Weak British macro-economic statistics continues to put pressure on the Pound. On the other hand, the UDS is under pressure from unresolved issue on the limit of the national US debt. The time is running out while Democrats and Republicans do not want to compromise. American government will resume work tomorrow and only two days will be left when country’s economy will bump up against the debt ceiling.
The pair tried to consolidate above the level of 1.6000, however due to the low demand for the Pound, this attempt was unsuccessful. It is a public banking day in America (Columbus Day), news releases from the UK either are not expected either.


Support and resistance
Today the pair will continue sideways corrective trend. Later, the price can push off from the upper limit of the downward channel (1.6000) and go down to the key support level of 1.5850 (level of 50% Fibonacci). If the level of 1.5850 is broken down, downtrend will consolidate and the decline can continue up to 1.5750 and 1.5440. Otherwise, correction may take place up to 1.5850, which will be followed by the new ascending wave.


MACD indicator confirms downward movement: on the daily chart histogram is below the signal line and is directed downward.

Support levels: 1.5910, 1.5850, 1.5750.
Resistance levels: 1.6000, 1.6100 and 1.6260.


Trading tips
In the current situation it is advisable to place sell orders with profit taking at the level of 1.5850. Pending buy orders can be placed above the level of 1.6020 with profit taking at the level of 1.6200.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF

USD/CHF, H4
On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen and they have both been horizontal since last week indicating sideways trend. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. Support levels are Tenkan-sen (0.9101) and Kijun-sen (0.9073) lines. One of the previous maximum of the Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.9135.



USD/CHF, D1
Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line, and the price is stuck between them. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. After long fall the price has been corrected, Tenkan-sen (0.9050) and Kijun-sen (0.9181) lines have become support and resistance levels respectively.



Key levels
Support levels: 0.9101, 0.9050, 0.9073.
Resistance levels: 0.9135, 0.9181.


Trading tips
On the four-hour chart the pair is trading within a sideways channel. Daily chart however shows us a correction. The targets for the long positions are 0.9135 and 0.9181.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 14-18.10.2013

Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site http://www.liteforex.com/?uid=434248008

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: decline can be prevented only by the USA default

Current trend

Last week European currency was under pressure from poor German macro-economic statistics. This week started with the ascending wave and the pair reached the level of 1.3600; however failed to consolidate above this level and rolled down. Situation in the US is still extremely tense. Today government is supposed to resume work and raise the ceiling of the national debt. Note that in 1979 the US had already refused to pay off its debts. On the other hand, investors are confident that president Barack Obama will prevent economic collapse in the country. In addition, the USA is under pressure from China, which owns 1 trillion of USD in bonds.

Support and resistance /b]

Today the pair may break down important support level of 1.3550 and go down to 1.3500 due to low demand in Euro. In the medium-term the decline can continue up to the highs of the summer at the level of 1.3410. If the level of 1.3410 is broken down, next target will be the level of 61.6% Fibonacci (1.3300).
MACD indicator confirms that downward movement will continue. Histogram on the daily chart is below the signal line and is directed downward.

Support levels: 1.3550, 1.3500, 1.3410 and 1.3300.
Resistance levels: 1.3600 and 1.3660.

[b]Trading tips

In the current situation it is advisable to place sell orders with profit taking at the level of 1.3410. Additional pending orders to sell can be placed at the level of 1.3600.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CAD: technical analysis

Current trend

The pair has been trading near the lower line of ”Bollinger bands” indicator (1.0330) for the second day. Applying Fibonacci levels to the downward movement, which has developed at the end of last week, we can conclude that upward correction to the level of 1.0375 has begun. Average line of “Bollinger bands” is at the same level. If this line crosses with the price chart, we will get a buy signal. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and signal line is ready to enter the histogram zone, suggesting the end of sales.

Support and resistance

Possible correction can be supported by the level of 1.0330. Nearest resistance level is at the local highs of 1.0359. If this level is broken down, next resistance level will be at 1.0375.

Trading tips

It is recommended to buy at the current price with the target of 1.0375 and protective order at support level of 1.0330. If the price breaks down the target level of 1.0375, it will make sense to move stop-loss in the break-even zone.



Kamil Avad
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: Obama, make it work!

Current trend

Following the release of weak British statistics the Pound fell to the key resistance level of 1.5910 on Tuesday, however after the failure to break it down, started to regain slowly. Today the UK labour market statistics will become known, which can add momentum to the pair.
Expectation of resolution of the US national debt issue increases investors’ interest to the USD and put pressure on the pair GBP/USD. Attention of market participants is drawn to the debates between Republicans and Democrats. The time for negotiation is running out and the decision on the raising of the ceiling of national debt shall be adopted today.

Support and resistance /b]

MACD indicator confirms forecast of downward movement. Histogram on the daily chart is below the signal line and is directed downward.

Support levels: 1.5910, 1.5880 and 1.5750.
Resistance levels: 1.6000, 1.6100 and 1.6260.

[b]Trading tips

Sell orders can be opened at the current price with profit taking near 1.5910-1.5880. In addition it is also advisable to place pending buy orders above the level of 1.6050 with profit taking at the level of 1.6250.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies