LiteForex Market Analytics

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:14 am

USD/JPY: yen is under pressure

Current trend

The pair started the week with growth to the level of 109.65. Although initial GDP data of Japan for Q2 2017 showed growth (from 1.5% to 4.0% YoY and from 0.3% to 1.0% MoM), yen is weakening. It is under pressure from July data on industrial output and retail sales in China that were the worst since January 2017.

The situation in the Japanese economy is also uncertain. The growth of GDP in Q2 2017 was caused by increased internal demand and consumer spending. However, durable goods account for a considerable part of them, which may indicates that the costs are seasonal, and that in the future the tendency for their increase would not preserve and new pressure will be put on the GDP volume.

Support and resistance

Technically the price grew above the middle line of Bollinger Bands (109.50) and is aiming at 110.05 (Fibo correction 23.6%). If this level is broken out, growth may continue to 110.80 (gathering of Fibo corrections 23.6% and 38.2%) and 111.55 (Fibo correction 50.0%). However, one cannot exclude the reversal and return of the price to August minimums at 108.70. Technical indicators show mixed signals: MACD histogram is reducing in the negative zone, and Stochastic is turning downwards to the overbought zone.

Support levels: 109.50, 108.70, 108.00.
Resistance levels: 110.05, 110.80, 111.55, 112.20.

Trading tips

In this situation, short positions could be opened below 109.50 with target at 108.70. Stop-loss order may be placed at 109.80.
If the price consolidates above 110.05, long positions could be opened with target at 110.80, 111.55 and stop-loss at 109.70.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:35 am

GBP/USD: pound is under the pressure of high inflation

Current trend

On Tuesday the pair was rapidly corrected to the level of 1.2845 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%). US dollar was supported by strong July Retail Sales data (in July the index grew by 0.6%) and new rumors upon the soon Fed’s interest rate rise. On the other hand, pound is under the pressure of June UK Consumer Price Index, which stayed at the same high level of 2.6%, as the fall of fuel prices was balance by the growth of food prices.

The long term maintenance of the high level of inflation raises concerns of market, as the earning index in the UK don’t keep pace with the Consumer Price Index growth, which leads to the impoverishing of the households, fall of retail sales and pressure on the GDP.

Today the Average Earnings data will be published in the UK, the index including bonus is expected to stay on the same level of 2.0% and index excluding bonus — on the level of 1.8% In this case the pair can decrease further. In addition, investors are waiting for the employment market data in the UK, which are expected to be more positive. The decrease of unemployment level from 5.9K to 3.7K is expected in June.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair is trading within the narrow sideways range of 1.2845 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%) and 1.2880 (Murray ), waiting for the employment and earnings data. In case of breakout of the upper border of the range the price can grow to the levels of 1.2930 (Fibonacci correction 50.0%, the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3005 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%, Murray ). The consolidation of the price below the level of 1.2845 can let it go down to the area of 1.2800 and 1.2750 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%).

Support levels: 1.2845, 1.2800, 1.2750.
Resistance levels: 1.2880, 1.2930, 1.3005.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.2880 with the targets at 1.2930, 1.3005 and stop loss around 1.2840.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.2845 with the targets at 1.2800, 1.2750 and stop loss at 1.2880.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Thu Aug 17, 2017 7:02 am

LiteForex. USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the USD/CAD pair lost 1%, despite the fall of oil prices and decrease of the Canadian government bonds yield. The main cause of the fall was USA President Trump’s decision to dismiss his two business counsels. Thus Trump is losing the support of business community, which has expressed discontent upon President’s reaction to the Charlottesville incident. In addition, the USD is under the pressure of the FOMC Minutes publication. Most of the officials have expressed concern upon the low inflation level, accented that the level below 2% would stay longer than expected. This means that the US regulator will postpone the interest rate rise until 2019.

Today in the evening the USA employment data will be published. The growth of Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims will let the USD/CAD pair to fall. Also, the traders will pay attention to FOMC Members Kashkari and Kaplan Speeches. The official’s commentaries upon the inflation and balance-sheet reduction can affect the further pairs’ dynamics greatly.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the instrument is in the correction around the support level of 1.2595. Bollinger Bands are reversing sideways, the price range is widening, reflecting the development of the current trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, keeping a weak sell signal. Stochastic is reaching the oversold area.

Support levels: 1.2595, 1.2510, 1.2400.
Resistance levels: 1.2675, 1.2790, 1.2845, 1.2930.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2590 with the target at 1.2500 and stop loss at 1.2620. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened at the level of 1.2680 with the target at 1.2785 and stop loss at 1.2595. Implementation period: 1-3 days.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Fri Aug 18, 2017 6:50 am

LiteForex EUR/USD: the pair is trading in the downward channel

Current trend

On Thursday the pair tested the level of 1.1700 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%) again, but couldn’t consolidate below it and began to grow after the poor July US Industrial production data publication (the indicator decreased from 0.4% to 0.2%). At the moment the price is trading around the middle line of Bollinger Bands (1.1740) due to controversial factors. EUR is under the pressure of the terrorist acts in Spain, as USD is affected by the conflict in Trump’s administration. The rumors about the chief President economic advisor Gary D. Cohn resign were not confirmed, which slowed the fall of the US currency.

Yesterday the Head of FRB Robert S. Kaplan mentioned that the politics and investors should be patient and reasonable in waiting for the new interest rate rise. He also said that the balance-sheet reduction process can be started in the nearest future, while it’s better to wait for the stable growth of the inflation before the interest rate rise, which disappointed the market.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair is trading within the downward channel and is tending to its upper border at the area of 1.1780 (Fibonacci correction 38.2% for the long term trend). In case of breakout the price can grow to August highs at the level of 1.1880. In case of reversal around 1.1780 the fall to the key support level of 1.1700 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%, Murray ) is possible.

Support levels: 1.1700, 1.1590, 1.1500.
Resistance levels: 1.1780, 1.1880, 1.1950.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the current price or at the level of 1.1780 with the targets at 1.1700 and 1.1590 from stop loss at around 1.1810.
If the price is set above the level of 1.1780, long positions will become relevant with the target at 1.1880 and stop loss at 1.1760.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Tue Aug 22, 2017 9:46 am

LiteForex CAC: technical analysis

CAC, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is growing towards the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the SMA200, and just below the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130 that start turning down. The RSI is testing its longer MA from above. The Composite keeps forming a Bullish divergence with the price.

CAC, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading just above the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. Both the RSI and Composite have formed a Bullish divergence with the price.

Key levels

Support levels: 5050.0 (local lows), 5010.0 (November 2015 highs), 4972.0 (April lows).
Resistance levels: 5128.0 (local highs), 5167.0 (April gap), 5180.0 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price is likely to retest its medium-term descending trendline.
Long positions can be opened form the level of 5128.0 with targets at 5167.0, 5180.0 and stop-loss at 5107.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 5050.0 with targets at 5010.0, 4972.0 and stop-loss at 5075.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:29 am

LiteForex WTI Crude Oil: price consolidates

Current trend

Today the price of WTI is trading near the level of 47.60, to where it corrected after the publication of the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock data.

The report demonstrated another decline in reserves though smaller than in the previous two weeks (only for 3.6 million barrels). The instrument is not able to begin its growth even though there are supply disruptions from the Sharara oil field in Libya and a decision of one of the world’s largest miners BHP Billiton to sell its US shale assets due to their underperformance. Markets have paused as investors are waiting for the publication of the EIA Crude Oil Stock Change tonight that could also show a smaller decline in reserves, which might still pressure the instrument.

Support and resistance

The price fell below the middle MA of Bollinger Bands and could continue falling towards 47.10 (38.2% Fibonacci correction) and 46.15 (50% correction). Crucial for Bulls seems to be the level of 47.80 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), a breakout of which would lead to a growth towards a cluster of 23.6% corrections (48.40 and 49.00). Technical indicators do not give a clear signal representing an uncertainty of the market before the news release. The Stochastic is directed down, Bollinger bands up while MACD histogram is near the zero line and its volumes are insignificant.

Support levels: 47.10, 46.15, 45.20.
Resistance levels: 47.80, 48.40, 49.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 47.10 with the target at 46.15 and stop-loss at 47.50.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 47.80 with targets at 48.40, 49.00 and stop-loss at 47.40.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:02 am

LiteForex USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the pair was under the pressure of US New Home Sales statistics fall. In addition, the PMI Markit decreased to 52.5 basis points, which is by 0.8 points lower than expected. Today in Japan Foreign bond investment data were published. The volume of investments into debt obligations decreased, which let USD restore part of yesterday’s loss.

Today 3-day Economic Policy Symposium starts in Jackson Hole. Tomorrow Janet Yellen speech is expected. Her commentaries upon inflation, terms and volumes of balance-sheet reduction of the US regulator will greatly affect the dynamics of the price in the short term. Today the Initial Jobless Claims publication is worth traders’ attention. The expected growth of index will let the USD/JPY pair fall further.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the pair began to grow from the support level of 108.85. Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards; the price range is stable, which reflects the development of the current trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are decreasing, keeping a strong signal to open short positions. Stochastic doesn’t give clear signals to enter the market.

Support levels: 108.85, 108.60, 108.20.
Resistance levels: 109.40, 109.90, 110.35, 111.10.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 109.40 with the target around 110.30 and stop loss at 109.10. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 109.00 with the target around 108.60, 108.40 and stop loss at 109.20. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:48 am

LiteForex XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

During yesterday’s trading session gold price insignificantly fell and reached the level of 1291.93 (–0.21%) due to slight strengthening of the USD, which reacted to the lack of news upon the conflict between USA and North Korea.

At the moment gold is trading around the key level of 1300 USD per troy ounce. It reached the level of 1292.74 (+0.06% against the day before). Investors are focused on today’s Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen speeches at the summit in Jackson Hole, where the heads of central banks can comment upon further actions within the monetary policy. Donald Trump’s Administration problems also prevent gold from falling in the nearest future.

Today traders should pay attention to US Durable Goods Orders publication at 14:30 (GMT+2), which can affect the US currency.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the instrument is trading above the middle line of Bollinger Bands, Bands are pointed upwards, which reflects the upward trend. However, CCI is reaching the zero line, and after is crosses it, the clear sell signal will be received. RSI is in the neutral zone, the indicator’s line is slightly reversing upwards, which reflects the upward trend.

Support levels: 1282.83, 1271.83, 1264.64.
Resistance levels: 1292.45, 1300.39.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the support level of 1282.83 with the targets at 1271.83 and 1264.67 and stop loss at 1287.02.
Long positions will become relevant after the breakout of the level of 1292.45 with the target at 1300.39 and stop loss at 1284.29.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:43 am

LiteForex XAG/USD: silver keeps rising

Current dynamics

Silver is moderately growing during the morning session on August 28th, trading in close proximity to local highs, updated on August 18th. The instrument was supported by weak US currency, which was under pressure from disappointing results of the speech of the head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole.
Recall that investors were waiting for comments on the prospects for monetary policy. In particular, traders were interested in the reduction of the Fed's balance sheet, which the regulator representatives themselves talked about so much. Instead, Yellen confined herself to general issues on financial stability and regulation in the banking sector.

On Monday, the only published indicators would be the ones of business activity in the industrial sphere of the Dallas Fed in August. Against this background, we can expect that the pair will maintain its upward mood and come close to the previous local highs.

Support and resistance

The indicator "Bollinger bands" on the daily chart is slightly growing, and can still turn sideways. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the multidirectional nature of trading in recent days.
The MACD indicator keeps a weak buy signal (the histogram is located above the signal line).

Oscillator Stochastic is growing, approaching the border of the overbought area.
Resistance levels: 17.16 (local maximum), 17.27 (maximum of August 18), 17.38.
Support levels: 17.00, 16.89, 16.73 (minimum of August 25), 16.62, 16.48.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on a breakdown of level 17.16, provided that the technical indicators do not contradict the development of the "bullish" trend. Take-profit – 17.38. Stop loss is at 17.00. Term of realization: 2 days.
If the level of 17.16 turns out to be an insurmountable obstacle for the bulls, it is worth considering the possibility of sales with a target in the area of 16.73. Stop loss – 17.30-17.80. Term of realization: 2-3 days.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:13 am

LiteForex USD/JPY: USD remains under pressure

Current trend

US currency has been under pressure against the Japanese yen during the morning session on August 29 and has already updated local minimums since mid-April. The growth of "bearish" activities in the instrument was explained by yet another growth of demand for safe haven assets after the announcement about the launch of a missile from North Korea directed at Japan.

By now USD managed to partially regain its positions. Among other factors, corrective growth was supported by uncertain data from Japan. For example, household expenses in July dropped unexpectedly by 0.2% YoY after growth by 2.3% in the previous month. Analysts predicted growth by 0.7% YoY.
On Wednesday the market will be waiting for the release of information on Japanese retail sales in July as well as specified data on US GDP in Q2 2017.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart continue to gradually decrease. The price range is widening reacting to increased activity in the course of the morning session on August 29. MACD is restoring the "bearish" signal (being located below the signal line) after a brief attempt to grow. Stochastic is showing similar dynamics having reversed downwards in the center of its area.
Resistance levels: 109.11, 109.41, 109.82, 110.23.
Support levels: 108.58, 108.32, 108.00.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a reversal around the level of 108.32 with targets at 109.11, 109.41 and stop-loss at 108.00. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

The breakdown of the level of 108.32 may serve as a signal to the continuation of sales with target at 108.00 and stop-loss at 108.50. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

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