LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

The USD/JPY pair was growing during the trade session on Tuesday. This was caused by hawkish comments of some FRS officials. US stocks were growing too, which influenced dollar rate positively, putting pressure on the yen. The values of Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit PMI Composite turned out to be lower than expected. Nevertheless, the index values above 50 points show the overall economy growth, strengthening the US dollar.

The pinnacle event of the week is release of FOMC meeting minutes. During the release, the market would probably experience high volatility.

Support and resistance

On the H4 chart, the pair was corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The MACD histogram is near zero line and has minimum volume, the signal line is ready to cross the zero line from below, which will be a signal to open long positions. Stochastic is in neutral zone, near the oversold zone. If this border is crossed, this will be a signal to buy.
Support levels: 113.00, 112.75, 112.30, 112.00, 111.65.
Resistance levels: 113.50, 113.88, 114.41, 115.00, 115.50.

Trading tips

Long positions with targets at 113.80 and stop-loss at 112.80 may be opened at the current price.
Short positions could be opened at the level of 112.80 with targets at 112.30 and stop-loss at 113.15.
Implementation time: 1-2 days.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

The latest macroeconomic data from the UK showed some mixed signals. Despite yearly GDP growth forecast for 2016 was revised down from 2.0% to 1.8%, economists point out that it was largely attributed to lower North Sea oil production in the first half of 2016. The manufacturing and service sectors, however, continued showing strength and consumer spending remained strong. On the other hand, the recent figures showed that business investment and wages growth slowed that could be a result of Brexit uncertainty. Lower wages growth will likely lead to a fall in consumer spending that together with higher inflation could have a substantial negative impact on the Pound in the medium-term.

Support and resistance

The pair continues trading in a sideways channel. There is a chance the price will retest its February highs.
On the daily chart, the RSI is testing its longer MA from below while keeps showing a Bearish behaviour. The Composite, however, failed its strong support level having formed a divergence with the price, suggesting a growth possibility.
Support levels: 1.2365 (local lows), 1.2290 (November 2016 lows), 1.2197 (December 2016 lows).
Resistance levels: 1.2506 (local highs), 1.2591 (local highs), 1.2695 (February highs).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.2510 with targets at 1.2591, 1.2695 and stop-loss at 1.2476. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2365 with the target at 1.2290 and stop-loss at 1.2390. Validity – 3-5 days.

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the XAU/USD pair rose to a level of 1250.85, updating 4-month maximum, due to the release of weak US unemployment data. The number of initial claims month increased from 238K to 244K. The negative statistics on the labor market significantly reduces the likelihood of interest rate hike at the March meeting of the Fed. Thus, the market expectation regarding the imminent tightening of monetary policy is assessed as very low, which contributes to the strengthening of the precious metals.

Today traders are waiting for the stats on new home sales in the US. The Head of the Fed has stated that the statistics on sales of new homes was an important element in the decision on the interest rate.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the pair is approaching the upper boundary of "Bollinger Bands" from below. Indicator is directed upwards, and the price range is narrow, indicating a high probability of change of the current trend. Histogram of MACD is in the positive zone, maintaining a buy signal. Stochastic is going to enter the overbought zone.

Support levels: 1247.36, 1235.44, 1229.35, 1216.16.
Resistance levels: 1256.53, 1264.87, 1272.49.

Trading tips

Short positions should be opened at the level of 1254.00 with the targets at 1243.00 and a stop-loss at the level of 1257.10. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened at the level of 1257.50 with targets at 1264.70 and a stop-loss at the level of 1252.50. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

The pair is trading in a narrow range of 1.0550-1.0610. Consolidation takes place due to the political and economic uncertainty in Europe and the United States.
Euro is under pressure of the upcoming elections in France. If the candidate of the "National Front" party Marie Le Pen comes to power, France may withdraw from the Eurozone, which would significantly weaken the rate of EUR/USD.

Dollar remains under pressure of political factors as well. Despite the fact that the US economy is recovering, and the members of the Federal Open Market Committee promise an imminent rate hike, there is uncertainty about future fiscal policy of the new US government. On Tuesday, President Trump will speak before Congress and present its "ambitious plan to reduce taxes."

Today stats on orders for durable goods will be published in the US. According to the forecast, the indicator is expected to grow by 1.7%. In the case of negative data, the dollar is going to be weakened.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the pair is moving within the descending channel and successfully gained a foothold below the level of 1.0610. MACD is below both zero and signal lines, its volumes are growing, the lines of Stochastic are pointing upwards. The indicators do not give a specific signal.

Resistance levels: 1.0610, 1.0650, 1.0700, 1.0750.
Support levels: 1.0550, 1.0520, 1.0460.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.0650 with the targets at 1.0700 and 1.0750 and stop loss at 1.0610.
Short positions will be relevant below the level of 1.0520, the goal – 1.0460, stop-loss – 1.0550.

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

A decline in the Australian Dollar after the RBA Governor Philip Lowe speech last week was caused by the decision to keep an interest rate at the level of 1.5%. At the same time, in light of growing commodity prices the fall in the Australiana currency cannot be lasting. Today the pair slightly strengthened amid a publication of a number of macroeconomic releases in Australia. Most likely, it was supported by strong data on the Current Balance.

Today extra attention needs to be paid to data from the US on the GDP, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence. However, as markets are waiting for today’s Donald Trump speech in Congress, volatility might remain low.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7660, 0.7600, 0.7540, 0.7490.  
Resistance levels: 0.7780, 0.7800, 0.7830.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.7780, 0.7800 and stop-loss at 0.7630.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7660 with targets at 0.7600, 0.7540 and stop-loss at 0.7700.

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent Crude Oil: long downward correction

Current trend

Crude oil price still consolidates within a narrow side channel, as the US dollar tendency is still unclear, and also because there is contrast of growing oil reserves in USA and reducing oil reserves in OPEC and major oil exporters. Technically, the price the pair reached the upper border of the upward channel, but it can't break the resistance, lacking catalyzing factors. Consolidation channel is narrowing, and a breakout is highly possible; all we have to do now is determining its direction. Let's consider all pros and contra and decide on the chances of these situations actually happening. At the moment, demand for US dollar is supported only by FRS statements of USA economy having strong perspectives and willingness to hike the rate soon, but economic indicators state the opposite. This means that USA macroeconomic data can influence the dollar price and, accordingly, crude oil prices. This week, attention should be paid to job market data, Markit Services PMI and of course Weekly Crude Oil Stock data.

According to US Department of Energy, oil reserves continue to grow, which surely will influence the price. On the other hand, OPEC and major oil exporters dispel all doubts following the agreement to put freeze on crude oil stocks, and they even cut them. OPEC state that the agreement is very effective for stabilizing the global crude oil market. This agreement keeps the oil price at current high level. But we shouldn't expect fast growth: any violation of agreement or US key interest rate growing, and we'll see the oil quotes falling. This means that price is unlikely to decrease.

Support and resistance
Disregarding the upward trend, long downward correction is highly probable. In short term, short positions could be opened with targets depending on the dynamics: 45.40 if the market is highly volatile, and 47.70 if the market is tranquil. Technically, indicators don't give a clear signal due to low liquidity.

Support levels: 54.70, 53.75, 53.10, 51.95, 49.50, 57.70, 45.40.
Resistance levels: 56.75, 58.50, 60.00, 61.95.

Trading tips
In this situation, short positions could be opened at current level, with short Stop Loss order at 59.20 (above the upper border of the range) — and with targets at 45.40, 47.70.

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar under pressure

Current trend

During this week, the pair was decreasing and currently reached its 2-month minimum at the level of 0.7100. Today, the pair is under pressure of the statements of the FOMC’s John Williams and William Dudley. Williams, FRB San Francisco President, stated that at FOMC should pay due attention to increasing the rate at the session in March. Dudley, Head of FRB New York, stated during his interview to CNN that the chances to increase the rates are much higher now. On the other hand, RBNZ President Graeme Wheeler contributed to weakening of the NZ dollar. During his speech in Auckland, he stated that, despite the national economy growth, it's too early to discuss raising interest rates above the current level of 2.0%, and more than that, another decrease might happen. Main domestic risks result from housing market instability, foreign risks result from a possibility of American administration implementing protectionist measures which may as well affect New Zealand.

Support and resistance

Technically, the pair is testing the key level of 0.7100 (Fibonacci retracements — 38.2%), and if it breaks through, it will decrease further to the level of 0.7000 (Fibonacci retracements — 23.6%) and to 0.6900. Indicators agree with this: Bollinger Bands and Stochastics are pointing downwards, MACD histogram went to negative zone. Turning upwards is possible if the price consolidates above 0.7175 (50.0% correction) and middle line of Bollinger Bands. The increase may continue to 0.7245 (61.8% Fibonacci retracements) and 0.7340 (76.4% Fibonacci retracements).

Support levels: 0.7100, 0.7000, 0.6900.
Resistance levels: 0.7175, 0.7245, 0.7340.

Trading tips

In this situation, short positions can be opened if the price consolidates below 0.7100 with take-profits at 0.7000, 0.6900 and Stop loss order at 0.7130. If the price consolidates above 0.7175 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands, long positions could be opened with take-profits at 0.7245, 0.7340 and Stop loss order at 0.7140.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair is corrected after decreasing to 1.0493 as USD gains ground. The main event which will set the further rate dynamics is speeches of US FOMC's members, including Janet Yellen. It is possible that rate correction will continue while the market is waiting for the speeches.  Hawkish comments can lead to another wave of buying the dollar and, consecutively, decrease EUR/USD rate. In addition to FOMC members' speeches, traders will pay attention to Markit PMI data for USA due at 16:00 GMT+2.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators show that the rate is still being corrected. Bollinger Bands are narrowing. MACD histogram is in positive zone, its volume is gradually decreasing, signalling that correction is still going on. If the price consolidates above the upper border of Bollinger Bands (1.0540), this will mean that the upward trend is forming. If the price does not break out the level of 1.0540, the reversal and another testing of 1.0493 is possible.
Support levels: 1.0493, 1.0452, 1.0392.
Resistance levels: 1.0569, 1.0630, 1.0677.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above 1.0569 with Take Profit orders at 1.0630 and stop-loss at 1.0545. Breakdown of the level of 1.0630 will open a way to 1.0453 for the pair.
Sell positions would become relevant below 1.0493 with Take Profit orders at 1.0452, 1.0392 and stop-loss at 1.0523.

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

As a typical commodity currency, the Australian Dollar was falling against the US Dollar all last week. On Friday, however, following oil and precious metals, it recovered part of the losses and returned to a strong resistance level of 0.7600.
This week investors’ attention is going to be focused on the RBA decision on interest rates that is due to be released on Tuesday. Amid a substantial reduction in the Australian Trade Balance, which was mainly the result of the unfavourable for the export-oriented Australian economy strengthening in the national currency, and negative data on inflation that came out today the regulator, most likely, will keep the interest rate unchanged in order to weaken the AUD. Before the decision is published, however, the pair is likely to continue its upward correction.
Today attention should be paid to data on Factory Orders from the US.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7540, 0.7490, 0.7420.
Resistance levels: 0.7660, 0.7780, 0.7800, 0.7830.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.7660, 0.7780 and stop-loss at 0.7520.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7660 with targets at 0.7600, 0.7540 and stop-loss at 0.7700.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

From the last half of the past week the pair is consolidating in the narrow range within 1.2205-1.2300. There is no news or drivers to make the GBP/USD move in any directions in the nearest two days. However, taking into consideration the experts’’ fears about the UK and its economy and the GBP tendency to lower after every upward rebound, the pair will be traded in the narrow channel with the “bearish” dynamics till Friday.

On Friday there are many macroeconomical releases to be published, which can cause high volatility in general and in the GBP/USD movement in particular: Consumer Inflation Expectations and Manufacturing Production data from the UK, the USA Labor Force Participation Rate: in case of strong data in can press the pair significantly.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the pair is lowering along the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The indicator is reversing downwards, as the price range is widen greatly, which can reflect the development of the downward trend. The MACD histogram is near the zero line; its volumes are lowering, keeping a sell signal. The Stochastic is ready to leave the oversold area.

During the following two days the pair will be traded within 1.2200-1.2300, so enter the market using Buy limit and Sell limit.

Support levels: 1.2186, 1.2140, 1.2107.
Resistance levels: 1.2261, 1.2328, 1.2371, 1.2418.

Trading scenario

Long positions open at the level of 1.2170 with the target at 1.2260 and stop loss at 1.2140. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Open short positions at the level of 1.2255 with the target at 1.2185 and stop loss at 1.2285. Implementation period: 1-2 days.