LiteForex Market Analytics

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Mon Sep 09, 2013 7:23 am

Brent: review

1. Current trend

Today the rate of the crude oil Brent is falling, but still remains rather high. Brent is getting cheaper due to the fundamental data from China. Import to Heavenly Empire in August was 21.4 million tons; it is 18% lower than previous figures in July.
The additional pressure Brent receives from technical profit takes. The rate of the instrument this high is supported by investors’ anticipation of the resolution to Syrian conflict. As you may know, President Obama seeks Congress approval of the strike. If he gets it, the rate will jump up.


2. Important levels: support and resistance

Support levels: 115.40, 114.40.
Resistance levels: 116.50, 117.30.

3. Trading tips

If US Congress authorizes military intervention, the rate of the instrument will go all the way up to the levels 117.30 and 118.25. Otherwise, we will witness a fall down to the levels 114.40 and 112.20.


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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Mon Sep 09, 2013 7:59 am

GBP/USD: waiting for the new highs


1. Current trend
Last week the Pound has been strengthening against Dollar. Positive fundamental data and increase of demand for the currency supported the pair. Even lack of the manufacturing production development couldn’t interfere with the movement of the instrument: though the pair dropped down it restarted its rise afterwards. Dollar in its turn is weakened by the negative statistics from labour market and construction sector of USA.
We don’t expect high volatility today due to the lack of fundamental releases. On Wednesday UK labour market indices will be published; unemployment claims can decrease significantly.





2. Important levels: support and resistance

Thanks to the British labour market development, the pair can rise above 1.5700. It is also possible that this week the pair will hit June’s highs at 1.5750. The price is still moving within ascending channel and the Pound has all the chances to reach key resistance at 1.5880.

3. Best entry/exit points
Regarding the situation, I would recommend to open long trades with targets at 1.5750-1.5880.

4. Supporting facts
On the daily chart MACD histogram is in positive zone above signal line and is directed upwards, indicating upward movement.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Tue Sep 10, 2013 7:05 am

USD/CHF: analysis and forecast

1. Current trend

At the end of last week the pair USD/CHF declined sharply due to statistics from the American labour market. Number of jobs outside agricultural sector was lower than expected and employment rate has also slightly decreased. Investors started to doubt that QE3 will be phased out soon and preferred to invest money to the other currencies. Last Tuesday the pair USD/CHF lost more than 100 points and reached the two-week lows at the level of 0.9300. After that the pair has corrected under the influence of negative data on retail sales in Switzerland.

2. Support and resistance
Key resistance level is at 0.9330. If this level is broken down, the price can go up to the levels of 0.9360 and 0.9380, the latter coincides with the moving average line of the “Bollinger bands” indicator. However, it is likely that the pair will gradually go down to support levels of 0.9300 and 0.9250. It is advisable to open long positions if the price consolidates above the level of 0.9330. Profit taking is recommended near the level of 0.9360. Short positions are recommended at the level of 0.9350 with profit taking near 0.9250.

3. Technical indicators
On the four-hour chart technical indicators give mixed signals. Bollinger bands demonstrate divergence, confirming downtrend; the price chart is trading in the lower band. MACD histogram has moved to the oversold zone and formed a sell signal. Stochastic lines are directed upward, confirming probability of ascending correction.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Tue Sep 10, 2013 7:55 am

EUR/USD: will investors come back to Dollar?

1. Current trend
Yesterday the pair EUR/USD was still affected by the Friday’s impetus. Non-Farm Payrolls index was lower then expected, so the pair jumped up. Regardless the increase of working places and decrease of unemployment rate in USA, the pair went steeply up, reaching the level of 38.2% of Fibonacci lines. At the beginning of the trading week the fall of the Dollar was determined by the decrease of US Consumer Credit index. Consumer activity declines and retailers and manufacturers suffer.
Investors’ attention is drawn to the US Small Business index, which is going to rise up to the 94.8 points. The last release for today will be Job Openings index, which can also rise and support Dollar.


2. Support and resistance

Support levels will be at the local minimum 1.3217 and at the level of 38.2% of Fibonacci lines (1.3185). The last one is near middle MA of Bollinger Bands. If the level of 1.3185 is broken through, the price will fall down to the levels of 1.3104 and 1.3065.



3. Trading tips
As a trading strategy I would recommend to open short trades with targets at 1.3185. The next target will be at the strong support level of 50% of Fibonacci lines.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Wed Sep 11, 2013 6:45 am

USD/JPY: downward correction will not last long

1. Current trend of USD/JPY

The currency pair USD/JPY continues trading in the upward channel. On Tuesday the pair reached the upper limit of the channel (100.57) and shifted to the downward correction. The Yen was supported by the rise in business sentiment index in the manufacturing sector of Japan. The index reached the level of 15.2 points, which is the highest mark since 2009.

2. Important levels: support and resistance

At the moment the price continues to decline, tending to reach moving average of “Bollinger bands” indicator (99.70). Starting from this level the price is likely to resume the rise up to the upper limit of the ascending channel and to resistance levels of 100.60 and 101.00. In the current situation it is advisable to open short-term short positions from the level of 100.20 with profit taking at the level of 99.70. It is recommended to open pending buy orders at the level of 99.70 with the target of 101.00.

3. Technical indicators

On the four-hour chart technical indicators confirm that there is a chance of downward correction. The price chart tends to the moving average line of “Bollinger bands” indicator. MACD histogram is in the overbought zone, its volumes are decreasing. In addition, histogram and the price chart are forming a divergence, indicating possibility of decline in price. Stochastic lines are directed downward, forming a sell signal.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:49 am

GBP/USD: would be the head of BoE satisfied with the rate of economic growth?
1. Current trend
On Wednesday investors’ expectations were based on British labour market indicators. Unemployment rate fell to 7.7%, while experts predicted stable indicator. Number of applications for unemployment benefits in August was below expectations and amounted to 32.6 thousand. Amid these positive macro-economic factors the pair sharply went up, breaking down several strong resistance levels and reached the level of 1.5820. After that the Pound rolled back to the level of 1.5780; however at the opening of the American session it has reached the local highs of 1.5820. Traders’ attention today will be focused on the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney. According to the latest data, British economy has come out of a recession and is gathering pace, which means that Carney is unlikely to disappoint investors and demand for the Pound will only grow.

2. Support and resistance


It is expected today that British currency will continue to grow against the USD up to 1.5880. After that the pair will experience downward correction to support level of 1.5700 (1.5650). In the medium-term the pair can grow up to the level of 1.6000.


3. Exit/entry points
As the medium-term strategy it is recommended to place long positions with profit taking at the level of 1.6000. Pending buy orders can be placed at the levels of 1.5700 and 1.5650 with profit taking at the level of 1.5880.

4. Technical indicators
On the daily chart MACD histogram is in the positive zone above the signal line and is directed upward, indicating continuation of ascending movement.

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Dmitriy Likhachev
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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 am

USD/CAD: USA budget deficit will weaken the pair

1. Current trend

The pair has been trading in the downward channel over the past nine days, which was provoked by the decrease in demand for the American dollar. It is highly possible that the pair will continue to decline at the opening of the American trading session, since forecast for today’s statistics data is not encouraging. Number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US can increase by 9 thousand; it seems that federal budget deficit will preserve and spending can exceed revenues by 155.3 billion USD.



2. Support and resistance
Resistance level- is the upper limit of the descending channel. The nearest support is the lows of this trading week at the level of 1.0305, which is close to the lower line of “Bollinger bands” indicator. Today’s US statistics can make the pair break down this level and fall to strong support level, which is lows of August. The pair is unlikely to go down below the level of 1.0274.



3. Trading tips
Amid expectations of the negative data from US as a daily strategy it is recommended to open short positions with the target of 1.0274.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby rohmatul » Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:44 am

Sir, today the news said that the Australians unemployment rate is reach the highest rates...
So, which currency that got the effect of this??
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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:38 am

XAG/USD: analysis and forecast
[1. Current trend
Quotes of silver has declined during this week and reached the four-week lows at the level of 21.70 on Thursday. The decline in rate was associated with the reduction in number of claims for unemployment benefits in the US, which, for the first time in a great while, was less than 300 thousand. Investors received a hope that phasing out economic stimulus program can be implemented and of which it may be announced at Fed meeting next week.

2. Technical indicators

On the four-hour chart Bollinger bands are directed downward; the price chart has broken down the lower line, showing ascending correction to the level of 22.10 or probably up to 22.70. MACD histogram is in the oversold zone (20), the line K% has crossed the line D% from bottom to top and has formed a sell signal.
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On the daily chart Bollinger bands demonstrate divergence confirming downtrend. The price chart has broken down the lower line of the indicator, suggesting probability of ascending correction. MACD histogram is preparing to move to the oversold zone and form a sell signal. Stochastic lines have moved to the oversold zone, also forming a sell signal.

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3. Trading tips
Based on the technical indicators the pair may experience correction to the levels of 22.10 and 22.70. However, in the medium-term downward movement will continue up to the targets of 20.60 and 19.70. In the current conditions it is advisable to open short-term long positions from the current level with profit taking at 22.70. Short positions are recommended if the price consolidates below the level of 21.70 with profit taking at the level of 20.60.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:43 am

EUR/USD: Euro is under pressure of economic recession
1. Current trend
Yesterday the pair tried to exceed the key resistance level, however poor European macro-economic data continues to put pressure on the Pound. In addition, positive statistics on the American labour market, released yesterday, was a surprise for many investors. Number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell up to the level of 292 thousand against the forecast of growth up to 330 thousand. Fuel to the fire was also added by the situation in Italy, where confrontation is Parliament is still going on. Economic statistics show that Europe is still in recession and leaders of EU shall think of new measures to stabilize economic situation.
Today the meeting of Finance Ministers of EU countries and members of European Group will be held, where the issue of slow pace of economic recovery will be raised. It is also worth of paying attention to the publication of foreign trade balance in Europe, In the afternoon some of US economic news will become known, including the data on retail sales and producer price index.


2. Important levels: support and resistance

Judging by the latest European statistics, economic situation in EU remains tense and even such giant as Germany shows weak indices in all sectors. Given the situation it can be assumed that in the medium-term the pair will drop to resistance levels of 1.3230, 1.3180.

3. Best entry/exit points
As the medium-term strategy it is recommended to place short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.3100. Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1.3320 with the targets of 1.3230 and 1.3180.

4. Technical indicators
On the four-hour chart MACD indicator gives a sell signal; histogram is in the positive zone under the signal line and is directed downward.
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Dmitry Likhachev
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