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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Oct 02, 2019 2:12 am

Japan Corporate Inflation Expectations Remain Stable

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Japanese firms' inflation expectations held steady in the third quarter, the Tankan summary of "Inflation Outlook of Enterprises" from Bank of Japan showed Wednesday.

Companies expect annual inflation of 0.9 percent in the year ahead, unchanged from the previous outlook.

Similarly, the three-year ahead inflation is seen at 1 percent, the same rate as estimated in June. The projection for next five years was retained at 1.1 percent.

The central bank aims at achieving price stability of 2 percent since 2013. Although the bank unveiled various quantitative and qualitative easing, inflation still remains well below the target.

The Tankan survey results published on Tuesday showed that the business conditions for large manufacturers declined moderately to 5 in the third quarter from 7 in the second quarter.

Likewise, the business conditions index for non-manufactures dropped to 21 from 23.

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:07 pm

Japan Services PMI Falls To 52.8 In September - Jibun

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Japanese firms' inflation expectations held steady in the third quarter, the Tankan The services sector in Japan continued to expand in September, albeit at a slower rate, the latest survey from Jibun Bank revealed on Friday with a PMI score of 52.8.

That's down from the 22-month high of 53.3 in August, although it remains well above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Individually, output was up solidly in September, although new orders grew at a pace below trend for 2019. Selling charges increased only fractionally.

The survey also showed that the composite index came in at 51.5, down from 51.9 in August.

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Fri Oct 04, 2019 12:46 am

UK Economic Conditions Deteriorate On Weak Manufacturing Activity: BCC

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The UK economic conditions weakened in the third quarter reflecting a marked deterioration in manufacturing sector activity, survey results from the British Chambers of Commerce showed Friday.

According to Quarterly?Economic?Survey, manufacturing firms reporting increased domestic sales fell to zero. The domestic order balance entered negative territory for the first time in seven years, to -7 in the third quarter. Both are at their weakest since the fourth quarter of 2011.

The balance of manufacturing firms reporting increased export sales dropped to +3, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2015 and the balance for export orders went negative and came in at its weakest level since the third quarter of 2009.

The dominant services sector reported a decrease in the balance of firms reporting increased domestic sales and orders, and export orders, the survey showed. The domestic sales balance of service providers slid to 15 and the balance for domestic orders dropped marginally to 9 in the third quarter.

Manufacturers' cashflow position - a key indicator of the financial health of a business, deteriorated. In the services sector, cashflow held steady at a low level.

"A stuttering services sector coupled with a worrying downturn in manufacturing activity indicates that any bounce back in UK GDP growth from the contraction in the second quarter is likely to be underwhelming at best," Suren?Thiru, Head of Economics at the BCC, said.

"This is a reality check, not scaremongering or politicking. These are some of the worst figures we've seen in a decade - and jobs, businesses, and the future success of our communities are on the line," Adam Marshall, Director General of the BCC, said.

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Mon Oct 07, 2019 12:35 am

China's Forex Reserves Decline In September

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China's foreign exchange reserves declined in September, figures from the People's Bank of China showed over the weekend.

Forex reserves totaled $3.092 trillion at the end of September compared to $3.107 trillion in August. The expected level was $3.105 trillion.

The currency exchange rate and changes in asset prices affected the level of foreign exchange reserves.

Martin Lynge Rasmussen, an economist at Capital Economics, said the central bank relied on state banks during August to contain forex volatility, but the latest forex reserves figures suggests that last month this may have been either replaced with, or supplemented by, direct forex sales by the PBoC.

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Mon Oct 07, 2019 10:18 pm

At a breakneck height: recession as a "lift" for gold

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Statements by a number of economists about the risk of a recession in the US economy are gaining momentum. Experts analyzed how the implementation of such a scenario will affect the price of gold, and concluded that the precious metal will appreciably rise in price.

Strategists at Goldman Sachs, the largest US bank, are confident that in the fourth quarter of this year, the cost of the yellow metal will rise to $1,600 per ounce. The reason for this, analysts believe a high probability of a recession in the US economy. Analysts of the leading analytical company Independent Strategy agree with them. They claim that in 2020, the price of gold may increase by 30% from the current key value of $1,500. Accordingly, it can reach $2000 per ounce, according to the Independent Strategy.

The appreciation of precious metals will be facilitated by the desire of market participants to maintain their capital. It is known that gold is best suited for this purpose, and the increased demand for yellow metal pushes its value up. Analysts are very optimistic about the future prospects of the gold market. They are confident that the precious metal will receive support for growth amid fear of a recession in the US economy. Note that the main threats to financial markets are weak data on the US labor market and a slowdown in economic growth.

Currently, the XAU/USD pair is trading near the levels of 1502-1503. According to analysts, the price of gold has generated two signals over the past month, one of which shows a direction to increase, the other - to decline. After the breakdown of the support level of 1487.70, the price of the precious metal may fall to the target level of 1418.25. In the case of a positive scenario and an update of the level of 1557.20, gold can reach the target level of 1595.00, analysts said. In the long run, due to increasing instability in the global economy, analysts recommend opening long positions in precious metals.

At the moment, the yellow metal is trading in the range of $1,505– $1,507 per ounce, completing the correction phase. Gold prices recovered the lion's share of the previous loss in relation to major currencies, as global stock markets fell after the US due to the weakest data on production in the US. At the moment, the score is 1:0 in favor of the precious metal, which plays into the hands of the high probability of monetary policy easing by regulators of Australia and Japan.

In the short term, the yellow metal could quickly return to local resistance at $1,530 per ounce, analysts warn. For further take-off to multi-year highs, powerful geopolitical or economic triggers will be required, the main of which may be the risk of a recession in the United States. Goldman Sachs analysts emphasize that the long-term forecast for the cost of precious metals is highly dependent on economic growth in the United States. Analysts recall the growing risk of a recession in the US economy, which is increasing annually. Goldman Sachs believes that the recession in the United States will become a kind of "lift" for gold, capable of pushing the precious metal to the next price peaks.

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:05 pm

#USDX vs USD / JPY vs EUR / JPY vs GBP / JPY - H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from October 09, 2019 APLs & ZUP analysis

We would like to bring to your attention a comprehensive analysis of the development options for the movement of the cross-instruments EUR / JPY and GBP / JPY , as well as the dollar index #USDX and the currency of the "land of the rising sun" USD / JPY currency from October 09, 2019.
Minuette (H4 timeframe)
____________________
US dollar Index
The development of the USDX dollar index movement will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line channel (99.15 - 98.95 - 98.75) Minuette operational scale fork. The details are shown in the animated chart.

The breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (resistance level 99.15) of the Minuette operational scale fork - the development of the #USDX movement will continue to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (99.25 - 99.40 - 99.55) with the prospect of reaching the equilibrium zone (99.60 - 99.75 - 99.95) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

On the contrary, if the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (support level 98.75), equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork is broken, the downward movement of the dollar index can continue to the local minimum 98.64 - the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (98.45) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the #USDX movement are presented in the animated chart.

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____________________ US dollar vs Japanese yen

The currency of the "country of the rising sun" in the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork, respectively, further development of the USD / JPY movement from October 9, 2019 will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of boundaries (107.00 - 106.80 - 106.55) of this equilibrium zones. The movement markup is shown in the animated chart.

In case of breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 107.00), of the Minuette operational scale fork, then the upward movement USD / JPY will be directed to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (107.55 - 107.72 - 107.90) and the UTL control line (108.15) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The breakdown of support level 106.55 on the lower boundary of ISL61.8 of the Minuette operational scale fork together with support level of 106.45 will determine the development of the currency of the country of the rising sun inside the 1/2 Median Line channel (106.45 - 105.90 - 105.40) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the USD / JPY movement, depending on the breakdown direction of the above equilibrium zone, are shown in the animated chart.

Image

____________________
Euro vs Japanese yen

The development of the cross-instrument movement EUR / JPY from October 9, 2019 will continue in the equilibrium zone (117.95 - 117.30 - 116.70) of the Minuette operational scale fork. The markup of this movement is shown in the animated chart..

The breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL61.8 (support level of 116.70) of the Minuette operational scale fork will direct the EUR / JPY movement to the local minimum 115.84 and the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (115.10 - 114.70 - 114.30).

In case of breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 117.95) of the Minuette operational scale fork, the upward movement of this cross-instrument will continue to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (118.65 - 119.10 - 119.55) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the EUR / JPY movement depending on the development of the Minuette equilibrium zone are presented in the animated chart.

Image

___________________

Great Britain pound vs Japanese yen

Meanwhile, the development of the GBP / JPY cross-instrument movement from October 9, 2019 will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

resistance level of 130.90 (lower boundary of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork); support level of 129.97 (upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale fork).

The breakdown of support level of 129.97 will confirm that further movement of the cross-instrument will be developed inside the 1/2 Median Line channel (129.97 - 128.50 - 127.00) and the equilibrium zones (128.75 - 127.00 - 125.40) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

If you return above ISL61.8 Minuette (resistance level of 130.90), the development of the GBP / JPY movement will begin to occur again in the equilibrium zone (130.90 - 131.95 - 133.00) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the initial SSL (133.85) and control UTL (134.50) lines of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The movement options, depending on the breakdown direction of the above range, are shown in the animated chart.

Image

____________________

The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6%;
Yen - 13.6% ;
Pound Sterling - 11.9%;
Canadian dollar - 9.1%;
Swedish Krona - 4.2%;
Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Oct 09, 2019 12:59 am

Australia Consumer Sentiment Weakest Since Mid-2015

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Australia's consumer confidence weakened to the lowest level in more than four years in October despite interest rate reductions, survey results from Westpac showed Wednesday.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped to 92.8 in October from 98.2 in September. This was the lowest score since July 2015.

Typically, an interest rate cut boosts confidence particularly around consumers' expectations for and assessments of their own finances.

However, in this survey the indicator measuring assessment of current family finances dropped 4.9 percent to 80.2 and that for future family finances slid 3.7 percent to a five-year low of 93.3.

Despite the rate cut, assessment for the economy for the next year plunged by 6 percent to 87.1 and the five-year outlook declined 9.1 percent to 88.9.

Consumer attitudes towards spending also deteriorated in October. The 'time to buy a major household item' sub-index declined 4.2 percent to 114.5.

Global events also contributed to the weak result in October with the deterioration in US-China trade relations weighing on the global economy amid speculation of a recession in the US, Bill Evans, chief economist at Westpac, said.

Evans noted that the board of the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to take some time to assess the impact of the three rate cuts before deciding to move again.

Westpac expects that next move will be a further cut in the cash rate to 0.5 percent in February next year.

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Oct 09, 2019 10:38 pm

Australia Home Loans Climb 3.2% In August

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The total number of home loans in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 3.2 percent on month in August, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - coming in at 33,468.

That exceeded expectations for an increase of 2.3 percent following the upwardly revised 4.3 percent increase in July (originally 4.2 percent).

Personal finance commitments fell 2.2 percent in August following a 3.8 percent fall in July and was down 12.9 percent on August 2018.

The value of new lending commitments for owner occupier dwellings rose 1.9 per cent nationally in August, with rises in all states and territories apart from the Northern Territory.

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Oct 10, 2019 11:49 pm

Sri Lanka Central Bank Keeps Rates Unchanged

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Sri Lanka's central bank left its key interest rates unchanged despite weak economic growth and higher inflation.

The monetary board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka decided to keep the Standing Deposit Facility Rate and the Standing Lending Facility Rate steady at 7.00 percent and 8.00 percent, respectively, the bank said in a statement on Friday.

The bank had reduced the rate by 50 basis points each in May and August.

The economic growth eased to 1.6 percent in the second quarter as the Easter Sunday attacks weighed heavily on the service sector activity. The central bank forecast economic growth to remain subdued this year but a gradual recovery is expected over the medium term.

Further, the bank expects inflation to stabilize well within the desired range of 4-6 percent with transitory supply side price pressures easing.

The vulnerability of the currency is likely to be a key barrier to looser policy in the near term, Alex Holmes, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

Global sentiment should start to improve around the middle of next year, and this could allow the central bank to cut interest rates further, Holmes noted. The economist expects a 50 basis point reduction in the second half of next year.

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Re: Forex News from InstaForex

Postby IFX Gertrude » Sun Oct 13, 2019 9:13 pm

New Zealand Services Sector Slows In September - BusinessNZ

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The services sector in New Zealand continued to expand in September, albeit at a slower rate, the latest survey from BusinessNZ showed on Monday with a Performance of Services Index score of 54.4.

That's down from 54.6 in August, although it remains well above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Among the individual components of the survey, sales (54.4), supplier deliveries (50.5), stocks (51.8), employment (52.7) and new orders (59.3) all continued to expand last month.

"The fact that new orders/business (59.3) improved to its highest result since January should assist with general business activity going forward. However, looking more broadly the gap in performance between the services and manufacturing sectors persists. With other key economic data showing a general trend decline, the question becomes to what degree will the services sector be affected by slowing influences elsewhere in the months ahead," BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said.

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