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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Unemployment Rate Rises To 6.2% In April



The jobless rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 6.2 percent in April, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday. That was up from 5.2 percent in March but was well beneath expectations for 8.3 percent.

The Australian economy lost 594,300 jobs last month to 12,418,700 - missing forecasts for a decline of 575,000 following the increase of 5,900 jobs in the previous month.

Full-time employment decreased 220,500 to 8,656,900 people and part-time employment decreased 373,800 to 3,761,800 people.

Unemployment increased 104,500 to 823,300 people. Underutilization rate increased 5.9 pts to 19.9 percent.

The participation rate was 63.5 percent in April, well shy of expectations for 65.2 percent and down from 66.0 percent a month earlier.

Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased 163.9 million hours to 1,625.8 million hours.

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[IFX Gertrude]

China Industrial Output Rises 3.9% On Year In April



Industrial production in China was up 3.9 percent on year in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.

That exceeded expectations for an increase of 1.5 percent following the 1.1 percent decline in March.

The bureau also noted that retail sales fell an annual 7.5 percent - missing expectations for a drop of 7.0 percent after tumbling 15.8 percent in the previous month.

Fixed asset investment sank 10.3 percent on year, also shy of expectations for a decline of 10.0 percent after plunging 16.1 percent a month earlier.

The jobless rate came in at 5.8 percent, down from 5.9 percent in March. RSS feed

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[IFX Gertrude]

Singapore Exports Rise Unexpectedly In April



Singapore's non-oil domestic exports increased unexpectedly in April, data from Enterprise Singapore showed on Monday.

Non-oil domestic exports increased 9.7 percent year-on-year in April, confounding expectations for a decline of 5 percent. Nonetheless, the pace of growth eased from 17.6 percent logged in March. Electronic NODX fell by 0.6 percent, while non-electronic NODX gained 12.8 percent.

On a monthly basis, NODX declined 5.8 percent in April, after a 12.8 percent rise in the previous month.

NODX to the top markets grew in April, though exports to China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand declined. The largest contributors to the growth were the US, the EU 27 and Japan, data showed.

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[IFX Gertrude]

New Zealand Producer Price Outputs Add 0.1% In Q1



Producer price outputs in New Zealand were up 0.1 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2020, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday - slowing from 0.4 percent in the three month prior.

Producer price inputs fell 0.3 percent on quarter after rising 0.1 percent in the previous three months.

On a yearly basis, outputs gained 2.2 percent and inputs were up 1.2 percent. Farm expenses price index (FEPI) were flat on quarter and up 1.0 percent on year, while capital goods price index (CGPI) rose 0.6 percent on quarter and 2.9 percent on year.

Salaries and wages rose 0.3 percent on quarter and 2.5 percent on year.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan March Core Machine Orders Ease 0.4%



Core machine orders in Japan slid a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent on month in March, the Cabinet Office said on Wednesday - standing at 854.7 billion yen.

That beat expectations for a tumble 0.7.1 percent following the 2.3 percent increase in February.

On a yearly basis, core machine orders sank 0.7 percent - again beating forecasts for a all of 9.5 percent following the 2.3 percent drop in the previous month.

The total value of machinery orders received by 280 manufacturers operating in Japan increased by a seasonally adjusted 3.0 percent on month and 0.9 percent on year in March at 2,289.0 billion yen.

Manufacturing orders fell 8.2 percent on quarter and 3.2 percent on year, while non-manufacturing orders added 5.3 percent on quarter and 0.9 percent on year.

Government orders surged 17.1 percent on month and 66.5 percent on year, while orders from overseas fell 1.3 percent on month and 14.4 percent on year. Orders through agencies sank 3.3 percent on month and 5.8 percent on year.

For the first quarter of 2020, core machine orders slid 0.7 percent on quarter and 1.0 percent on year. Total machine orders gained 3.9 percent on quarter and fell 0.7 percent on year in Q1.

Manufacturing orders added 1.8 percent on quarter and lost 3.4 percent on year in Q1, while non-manufacturing orders fell 5.1 percent on quarter and rose 0.6 percent on year.

Government orders soared 25.5 percent on quarter and 45.0 percent on year, while orders from overseas gained 8.7 percent on quarter and lost 8.7 percent on year. Orders through agencies gained 3.6 percent on quarter and fell 4.1 percent on year.

Core machine orders are now predicted to fall 0.7 percent on quarter in Q2 and 10.4 percent on year.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Malaysia Consumer Prices Fall More-Than-Expected In April



Malaysia's consumer prices declined more-than-expected in April, figures from the Department of Statistics revealed on Wednesday.

The consumer price index declined 2.9 percent year-on-year in April, following a revised 0.2 percent decrease in March. Economists had expected a 1.6 percent fall. This was the second consecutive fall in prices.

Among the main components, prices for transport declined 21.5 percent annually in April and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels decreased by 2.2 percent.

Meanwhile, cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 1.2 percent and prices for miscellaneous goods and services grew 2.3 percent. Cost for health and education rose by 1.2 percent, each.

On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices fell 2.7 percent in April.

The core consumer price inflation held steady at 1.3 percent in April.

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[IFX Gertrude]

European Economics Preview: Eurozone Flash PMI Data Due



Flash Purchasing Mangers' survey results from euro area and the UK are due on Thursday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 3.15 am ET, IHS Markit is scheduled to issue France's PMI data. Economists forecast the composite output index to improve to 32.0 in May from 11.1 a month ago.

At 3.30 am ET, Germany's flash PMI data is due. The composite index is seen at 34.1 in May versus 17.4 in the previous month.

At 4.00 am ET, Eurozone composite PMI data is due. The index is expected to advance to 25.0 in May from 13.6 in April.

In the meantime, industrial production and producer prices are due from Poland. Economists forecast industrial output to fall 10 percent annually in April, faster than the 2.3 percent decrease in March.

At 4.30 am ET, IHS Markit/CIPS publishes UK flash composite PMI data. Economists forecast the composite indicator to rise to 25.0 in May from 13.8 in April.

At 6.00 am ET, the Confederation of British Industry releases Industrial Trends survey data. The order book balance is forecast to fall to -59 percent in May from -56 percent in the preceding period.

At 7.00 am ET, Turkey's central bank interest rate announcement is due. Economists expect the central bank to cut its one-week repo rate to 8.25 percent from 8.75 percent.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Bank Of Japan Launches New Lending Program



The Bank of Japan introduced a new lending program to help small and medium-sized firms and left its target for short-term interest rate and the bond yield target unchanged on Friday.

At the emergency meeting, the policy board of the BoJ unanimously decided to launch a lending scheme worth about JPY 30 trillion to support SMEs struggling to operate amid the spread of the novel coronavirus, or Covid-19.

According to the new scheme, the bank will provide funds to eligible counterparties against pooled collateral for up to 1 year at the loan rate of zero percent.

The board voted 8-1 to retain the interest rate at -0.1 percent on current accounts that financial institutions maintain at the central bank.

Also, the bank will continue purchase a necessary amount of Japanese government bonds without setting an upper limit so that 10-year JGB yields will remain at around zero percent.

As for CP and corporate bonds, the BoJ will maintain their amounts outstanding at about JPY 2 trillion and about JPY 3 trillion, respectively.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 22, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro grew during the first half of Thursday due to optimistic rates of European business activity for the current month: Manufacturing PMI of the euro area grew from 33.4 to 39.5, Services PMI showed even greater dynamics - an increase from 12.0 to 28.7. The euro has decisively reversed since the US session opened. US PMIs came out better than expected, but not as much as we expected: Manufacturing PMI grew from 36.1 to 39.8 against 39.3, Services PMI grew from 26.7 to 36.9 with 32.6 expected. Nevertheless, the trading volumes were comparable to those observed on May 18, which indicates a massive closure of purchases and even the opening of sales. A more interesting story awaits us next week, when sales of new housing, orders for durable goods, incomes and expenses of consumers will be published in the US.



The price was re-marked at the upper border of the price range and with the turn of the oscillator, Marlin headed down on the daily chart. The closest support for the price is the price channel line at 1.0918, below it is the MACD indicator line at 1.0888, overcoming it will confirm the euro's intention to go much deeper down to 1.0767 and 1.0578.



The signal line of the Marlin oscillator penetrated into the downward trend zone after forming a double divergence on the four-hour chart. The closest target is the 1.0888 level, at which the MACD lines coincide on both scopes. Consolidation under the level opens the way to the lower border of the range 1.0767.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Singapore Cuts 2020 GDP Outlook



Singapore's economic outlook for 2020 was lowered further due to the deterioration in foreign demand forecast and the expected economic impact of the coronavirus containment measures.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry on Tuesday forecast the city-state economy to shrink "-7.0 to -4.0 percent" this year instead of "-4.0 to -1.0 percent projected in March.

The ministry said there continues to be a significant degree of uncertainty over the length and severity of the coronavirus, or Covid-19, outbreak, as well as the trajectory of the economic recovery, in both the global and Singapore economies.

Gross domestic product shrank 0.7 percent on a yearly basis in the first quarter, reversing a 1 percent rise in the fourth quarter 2019. The first quarter figure was revised from -2.2 percent.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualized basis, the economy contracted 4.7 percent, a pullback from the 0.6 percent expansion in the fourth quarter of last year.

The manufacturing sector expanded by 6.6 per cent year-on-year on account of output expansions in the biomedical manufacturing, precision engineering and transport engineering clusters.

Meanwhile, the construction sector contracted 4.0 percent. Likewise, the wholesale and retail trade sector fell 5.8 percent and the transportation and storage sector declined 8.1 percent.

The accommodation and food services sector logged a sharp fall of 23.8 percent. At the same time, the information and communications sector grew 3.5 percent and the finance and insurance sector expanded 8.0 percent.

The business services sector shrank 3.3 percent in the first quarter.

A very strong performance from the biomedical manufacturing sector meant that Singapore's economy contracted much less in the first quarter than previously thought, Alex Holmes, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

But with a stringent lockdown in place at home and demand cratering abroad, the sector is unlikely to stop a huge contraction in the economy in the second quarter, the economist added.

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